Wheat for Africa
Fentahun Mengistu (PhD)
DG, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research
Borlaug 100, 25-28 March 2014, C...
Wheat for Africa - Facts
• Wheat has been regarded a non- African crop
• Africa Food staples : Maize, beans, root crops,
i...
Wheat for Africa - Facts
Wheat producing countries (000 tonnes, 2010)
Major wheat
producing
countries in Africa
exceeding ...
Wheat for Africa - Facts
• Demand for wheat is growing faster than for any other food crop
 Urban population growth; 300%...
Wheat for Africa - Facts
Per capita wheat production (1990-2010)
Africa has
the lowest
Per capita
wheat
production
Source:...
Widening gap between wheat production and
consumption in Africa
0
5
10
15
20
25
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
19...
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
...
Source: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011
Wheat in Africa
Imports and Rising Demand
Slide Credit: Dr. Tom Lumpkin, CIMMYT
Challenges of reliance on import markets
• Weather induced supply disruptions
(Key exporters to Africa rely on rainfed pro...
What is Africa’s wheat potential?
Is it worth the investment?
• 2012 Joint CIMMYT / IFPRI
(HarvestChoice) study
(Shiferaw ...
Country Average
NER
(US$/ha)
Pixels with
positive
NERs (%)
Angola 275 32
Burundi 1061 100
Ethiopia 771 90
Kenya 931 92
Mad...
Conclusions of Shiferaw et al. Study
• Strong evidence that there is large potential for
economically profitable wheat pro...
Why isn’t Africa already growing more wheat?
• African Governments are subsidizing wheat imports;
not stimulating domestic...
It is very easy to state where Africa needs “more”
• More investment in research and development …
• More research infrast...
So what are the key issues for Africa?
• Developing suitable technologies and varieties
• Making affordable inputs availab...
Wheat is labeled Africa’s strategic commodity
• Landmark international conference : 250 participants
• researchers, policymakers, farmers, seed Companies from Africa,
A...
Significant Outcomes
• Joint African Ministers of Agriculture and
Trade (CAMAT), 29-30 Nov. 2012, Addis Ababa:
endorsed wh...
Significant Outcomes
A wheat revolution is in the making:
Positive trends from 3 African countries
Wheat sector progress: Ethiopia
• Ethiopia has surpassed the CAADP targets of 6% average
annual agricultural growth Rate
•...
Ethiopia (Contd.)
Wheat Production trend in Ethiopia(1960-2014)
• Government commitment - R&D
• IARS- CGIARs
• Internation...
Ethiopia (Contd.)
• Research in Ethiopia is helping the world to combat UG99
– International rust screening at EIAR Debre ...
African Wheat Research Benefits the World
Example: Wheat Stem Rust
• 2 Intn’l rust screening nurseries
KARI/CIMMYT Njoro,...
Nigeria
• In 2012/2013 , Nigerian import is estimated at 4 m tonnes
• Annual amount spent on imports ≈ US$4 billion
• Dema...
Rwanda
• Rwanda has highest wheat profitability potential
(Shiferaw et al. 2012)
• Four-fold increase in wheat production ...
Conclusion
• Time to recognize the critical importance and role that
wheat plays for food security, economic development a...
Conclusion
• Limiting factors are not agro-ecological; rather
socio-cultural, institutional and policy
impediments
• Incre...
Thanks to:
• Bekele Abeyo: CIMMYT, Ethiopia
• Bedada Girma- DRRW Coordinator, Ethiopia
• Authors references are made to th...
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Wheat for Africa

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Presentation delivered by Dr. Fentahun Mengistu (Director General of the EIAR, Ethiopia) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org

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Wheat for Africa

  1. 1. Wheat for Africa Fentahun Mengistu (PhD) DG, Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research Borlaug 100, 25-28 March 2014, Ciudad, Obregon,Mexico
  2. 2. Wheat for Africa - Facts • Wheat has been regarded a non- African crop • Africa Food staples : Maize, beans, root crops, indigenous crops, etc • Its production was restricted in SA, NA, and HLs of Ethiopia and Kenya; • But with the development of new varieties (under irrigation) – expanded in the savanna region such as Nigeria
  3. 3. Wheat for Africa - Facts Wheat producing countries (000 tonnes, 2010) Major wheat producing countries in Africa exceeding 500 000 tonnes (2010) • Algeria • Egypt • Ethiopia • Kenya • Morocco • South Africa • Tunisia
  4. 4. Wheat for Africa - Facts • Demand for wheat is growing faster than for any other food crop  Urban population growth; 300% by 2050 • In 2011: Africa spent >14 b US$ to import 40 m tons • By 2050:  Africa spends >$24 b for importing 60 Mt  North Africa : 25 Mt; SSA: 35 Mt • Several countries could achieve wheat yields exceeding 6 t/ha (compared to global average of 3t/ha)
  5. 5. Wheat for Africa - Facts Per capita wheat production (1990-2010) Africa has the lowest Per capita wheat production Source: Statistics Division (FAOSTAT, 2012)
  6. 6. Widening gap between wheat production and consumption in Africa 0 5 10 15 20 25 1961 1965 1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009 Milliontons Demand Production Gap Africa’s farmers produce only 44 percent of the wheat consumed on the continent All Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
  7. 7. 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Africa Wheat Import Cost (billion US$) Import Cost (billion US$) Rising Cost of Imports African wheat import constitutes about a third of Africa’s total food import expenditures (ca USD 50B) Source: FAOSTAT
  8. 8. Source: Weigand, US Wheat Associates, 2011 Wheat in Africa Imports and Rising Demand Slide Credit: Dr. Tom Lumpkin, CIMMYT
  9. 9. Challenges of reliance on import markets • Weather induced supply disruptions (Key exporters to Africa rely on rainfed production) • Price spikes and price volatility in food markets • Land diversion to maize(biofuel); pressure on food prices • Speculative selling and buying behaviors • Wheat export restrictions by exporting countries • Foreign exchange shortages by SSA countries • Would African policy makers afford taking these risks? • Can import dependence be reduced through domestic production in SS Africa?
  10. 10. What is Africa’s wheat potential? Is it worth the investment? • 2012 Joint CIMMYT / IFPRI (HarvestChoice) study (Shiferaw et al., 2012) • 12 SSA countries study • Sub-Saharan Africa now grows less than 10% of the wheat that it could
  11. 11. Country Average NER (US$/ha) Pixels with positive NERs (%) Angola 275 32 Burundi 1061 100 Ethiopia 771 90 Kenya 931 92 Madagascar 731 76 Mozambique 145 21 Rwanda 1461 96 Tanzania 384 71 DRC 302 76 Uganda 994 100 Zambia 444 86 Zimbabwe 309 76 Net Economic Return under High intensification (for pixels NER>0) 20-100% land economically profitable for rainfed wheat production Source: Shiferaw et al., 2012
  12. 12. Conclusions of Shiferaw et al. Study • Strong evidence that there is large potential for economically profitable wheat production in SSA • Results are generally robust to plausible shocks. Low world prices of wheat and high fertilizer costs will reduce the relative competitiveness of domestic production Fall in domestic yield will reduce competitiveness  investment in R&D to increase yields reduce production and marketing costs • The limiting factors are not agro-ecological, they are rather socio-cultural, institutional and policy impediments.
  13. 13. Why isn’t Africa already growing more wheat? • African Governments are subsidizing wheat imports; not stimulating domestic production • Many infrastructure bottlenecks exist in the wheat VC; prevent farmers access to inputs, markets, and consumers; grain marketing costs are high • Wheat production potential varies within and across countries, depending on agro-ecological and socioeconomic conditions. There is no “one size fits all” solution.
  14. 14. It is very easy to state where Africa needs “more” • More investment in research and development … • More research infrastructure … • More agricultural extensions & extension staff; capacity building • More farmer associations and farmer training … • More awareness and support … • More affordable inputs … • More quality assurance in seed, fertilizers, ag.chemicals, machinery • More machinery and small farm implements … • More storage …  Overhauling the whole system in a transformative way
  15. 15. So what are the key issues for Africa? • Developing suitable technologies and varieties • Making affordable inputs available • Building effective and sustainable wheat seed systems • Make wheat extension systems more effective & efficient • Increasing productivity among smallholders • Making wheat more competitive and profitable • Making wheat value chains work more effectively • Fostering regional co-operation • Putting in place appropriate policies that foster wheat industry; Political will to realize Africa’s wheat potential
  16. 16. Wheat is labeled Africa’s strategic commodity
  17. 17. • Landmark international conference : 250 participants • researchers, policymakers, farmers, seed Companies from Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas, agriculture ministers, AUC, UNECA
  18. 18. Significant Outcomes • Joint African Ministers of Agriculture and Trade (CAMAT), 29-30 Nov. 2012, Addis Ababa: endorsed wheat as one of Africa’s strategic commodities for achieving food and nutrition security • High level FARA meeting, Accra, Ghana, July 2013 – developed a strategy for promoting African wheat production
  19. 19. Significant Outcomes A wheat revolution is in the making: Positive trends from 3 African countries
  20. 20. Wheat sector progress: Ethiopia • Ethiopia has surpassed the CAADP targets of 6% average annual agricultural growth Rate • Strong government commitment : Wheat a priority crop for national food security (Growth &Transformation Plan) • The largest producer in Sub-Saharan Africa • Wheat production has increased 400% since 2000 • Current national average yield is 2.4t / ha • A new record harvest of > 4MMT in 2013/14 despite the rust menace
  21. 21. Ethiopia (Contd.) Wheat Production trend in Ethiopia(1960-2014) • Government commitment - R&D • IARS- CGIARs • International Community
  22. 22. Ethiopia (Contd.) • Research in Ethiopia is helping the world to combat UG99 – International rust screening at EIAR Debre Zeit research center • EIAR Kulumsa Research Center – Regional Center of Excellence for wheat research (EAAPP) • Ethiopia (EIAR) hosted the Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, in partnership with CIMMYT, ICARDA, IFPRI and the African Union, in 2012 - widely regarded as a huge success
  23. 23. African Wheat Research Benefits the World Example: Wheat Stem Rust • 2 Intn’l rust screening nurseries KARI/CIMMYT Njoro, Kenya (BW) EIAR/CIMMYT DZt, Ethiopia (DW+ BW) • Global wheat germplasm screened: stem rust (Ug99) • East Africa a rust hotspot: Control of wheat rusts in Africa benefits the entire world Njoro, Kenya - Lines evaluated (2005-2012) 250,000+ lines from 32 countries
  24. 24. Nigeria • In 2012/2013 , Nigerian import is estimated at 4 m tonnes • Annual amount spent on imports ≈ US$4 billion • Demand for wheat is 4.1 million tons in 2012/2013 • It could produce a greater % of its wheat domestically • A ban on wheat imports in 1987 - wheat production increased from 50,000 to 600,000 tons on 215,000 ha. • Nigerian Government is committed to increase local production – the target is to reduce imports by 50%, in 2015 and meet annual demand by 2017
  25. 25. Rwanda • Rwanda has highest wheat profitability potential (Shiferaw et al. 2012) • Four-fold increase in wheat production since 2006 (20,000 tons to 76,000 tons in 2012) • Gains linked to 2007 government CIP program (improved varieties & agronomic practices) • CIP encourages crop consolidation and synchronization into larger units • 50% subsidies on inputs and extension services to participating farmers
  26. 26. Conclusion • Time to recognize the critical importance and role that wheat plays for food security, economic development and social and political stability in Africa • Current trends of increasing reliance on imports are not sustainable and threaten nutritional and economic security • Big potential for economically profitable wheat production in SSA to meet the growing demand
  27. 27. Conclusion • Limiting factors are not agro-ecological; rather socio-cultural, institutional and policy impediments • Increased measures are needed to decisively increase wheat production, productivity and self- sufficiency in Africa • Green/Wheat/ revolution is possible in Africa!
  28. 28. Thanks to: • Bekele Abeyo: CIMMYT, Ethiopia • Bedada Girma- DRRW Coordinator, Ethiopia • Authors references are made to their work
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