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Presentation delivered by Dr. Per Pinstrup-Andersen (Cornell University, USA) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico. …

Presentation delivered by Dr. Per Pinstrup-Andersen (Cornell University, USA) at Borlaug Summit on Wheat for Food Security. March 25 - 28, 2014, Ciudad Obregon, Mexico.
http://www.borlaug100.org

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  • 1. Necessary Policies Per Pinstrup-Andersen Celebrating 100 Years of Dr. Norman Borlaug Obregon, Mexico, 25-28 March 2014
  • 2. Future yield increases will come from 1/3 Breeding 1/3 Agronomy 1/3 Policy Future yield increases will come from 1/3 Breeding 1/3 Agronomy 1/3 Policy Hans Braun’s Assessment
  • 3. What do we want from food and agricultural systems?  Food Security and good nutrition
  • 4. What do we want from food and agricultural systems?  Food Security and good nutrition  Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use
  • 5. What do we want from food and agricultural systems?  Food Security and good nutrition  Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use  Reasonable incomes for farmers
  • 6. What do we want from food and agricultural systems?  Food Security and good nutrition  Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use  Reasonable incomes for farmers  Reasonable prices for consumers
  • 7. What do we want from food and agricultural systems?  Food Security and good nutrition  Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use  Reasonable incomes for farmers  Reasonable prices for consumers  Meeting Non-food Demands
  • 8. What do we want from food and agricultural systems?  Food Security and good nutrition  Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use  Reasonable incomes for farmers  Reasonable prices for consumers  Meeting Non-food Demands  Support of general economic growth
  • 9. What do we want from agricultural research?  More food and non-food per unit of land, water, labor and capital
  • 10. What do we want from agricultural research?  More food and non-food per unit of land, water, labor and capital  Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.
  • 11. What do we want from agricultural research?  More food and non-food per unit of land, water, labor and capital  Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.  Adaptation to climate change
  • 12. What do we want from agricultural research?  More food and non-food per unit of land, water, labor and capital  Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.  Adaptation to climate change  Reduced poverty and malnutrition
  • 13. What do we want from agricultural research?  More food and non-food per unit of land, water, labor and capital  Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.  Adaptation to climate change  Reduced poverty and malnutrition  Appropriate response to diet transition
  • 14. What do we want from agricultural research?  More food and non-food per unit of land, water, labor and capital  Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.  Adaptation to climate change  Reduced poverty and malnutrition  Appropriate response to diet transition  Stability in production and prices
  • 15. Annual Average Population Growth Rate, %
  • 16. Billions of Middle Class Asians and Percent of the Global Middle Class 2009-2030 Year Billions Percent 2009 0.5 28 2020 1.7 54 2030 3.2 66 Source: Kharas 2010
  • 17. The Asian Middle Class’ Purchasing Power (Billions 2005 PPP Dollars) and Percent of the World’s Middle Class’ Total Purchasing Power Year Billions Percent 2009 5.0 23 2020 14.8 42 2030 32.6 59 Source: Kharas 2010
  • 18. Suggested Policy Priority 1  Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources
  • 19. Suggested Policy Priority 1  Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources  Feeder roads
  • 20. Suggested Policy Priority 1  Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources  Feeder roads  Appropriate institutions  Farmer associations  Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)
  • 21. Suggested Policy Priority 1  Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources  Feeder roads  Appropriate institutions  Farmer associations  Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)  Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers
  • 22. Suggested Policy Priority 1  Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources  Feeder roads  Appropriate institutions  Farmer associations  Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)  Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers  Water management infrastructure
  • 23. Suggested Policy Priority 1  Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources  Feeder roads  Appropriate institutions  Farmer associations  Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)  Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers  Water management infrastructure  Primary education, health care and improved sanitation
  • 24. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain
  • 25. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain  Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders
  • 26. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain  Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders  Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)
  • 27. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain  Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders  Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)  Public goods investments, including research
  • 28. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain  Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders  Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)  Public goods investments, including research  Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders
  • 29. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain  Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders  Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)  Public goods investments, including research  Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders  Establish competitive funds for technology development
  • 30. Suggested Policy Priority 2  Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain  Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders  Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)  Public goods investments, including research  Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders  Establish competitive funds for technology development  Assure incentives for private sector innovation
  • 31. Suggested Policy Priority 3  Remove international trade distortions (both import and export restrictions)
  • 32. Suggested Policy Priority 3  Remove international trade distortions (both import and export restrictions)  Regulation of Land Grabbing
  • 33. Suggested Policy Priority 3  Remove international trade distortions (both import and export restrictions)  Regulation of Land Grabbing  Clarity on water and land tenure
  • 34. Suggested Policy Priority 3  Remove international trade distortions (both import and export restrictions)  Regulation of Land Grabbing  Clarity on water and land tenure  Reduce food waste and losses
  • 35. Suggested Policy Priority 3  Remove international trade distortions (both import and export restrictions)  Regulation of Land Grabbing  Clarity on water and land tenure  Reduce food waste and losses  Move towards full costing
  • 36. Suggested Policy Priority 3  Remove international trade distortions (both import and export restrictions)  Regulation of Land Grabbing  Clarity on water and land tenure  Reduce food waste and losses  Move towards full costing  Pursue multiple-win solutions
  • 37. The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy  Keeping food prices low
  • 38. The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy  Keeping food prices low  Price stabilization
  • 39. Price Volatility Source: Minot, N. (2013). How Volatile Are African Food Prices? IFPRI Research Brief 19, IFPRI, Washington, DC. World Market Selected African Countries
  • 40. The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy  Keeping food prices low  Price stabilization  Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies
  • 41. The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy  Keeping food prices low  Price stabilization  Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies  Protecting food in an eco-economy
  • 42. The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy  Keeping food prices low  Price stabilization  Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies  Protecting food in an eco-economy  Fiscal costs, supply response and surpluses
  • 43. Thai Rice Mountains Source: AFP Photo/Pornchai Kittiwongsakul
  • 44. India – Grain Stock 2005/06 – 2012 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011 2012 80 Millioner Tons 65 54 25 15
  • 45. Surplus Grain in India 2012
  • 46. Maize Stocks in Zambia 2012 Photo courtesy William J. Burke
  • 47. Rotting Maize in Zambia 2012 Photo courtesy William J. Burke
  • 48. Up Close: Maize in Zambia 2012 Photo courtesy William J. Burke
  • 49. Annual Maize Production in Zambia, 2005/08 and 2010/2011 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2005-08 2010-11 2.8 Million Tons 1.4 Source: Jayne et al., 2011
  • 50. Rhetoric Declarations Plans Targets Action
  • 51. http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe