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A Competitive South African Wheat Industry Is            Paramount To Food SecurityCobus le RouxARC-Field Crops Division
Curiosity Rover makes near-perfect landing on Mars
UndernourishmentSource: FAO
World estimates: Total grains                                      09/10         10/11         11/12                    12...
World estimates: Wheat                                      09/10       10/11        11/12                 12/13          ...
Per capita food production, calories (kcal/day, 2009)
As for the future, our task is clear ……… Today the world’s population is growing at 200 people per minute and is forecaste...
Access: South African, supply and demand                                                                   Source: Landbou...
Affordability: Poorest 30% of South African household’s budget spenton food and non-alcoholic beverages    • 2005/2006    ...
Affordability: SA consumers are paying more for food …Source: M & G
Affordability: Bread and cereals are increasing the mostSource: M & G
Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African Wheat Industry: Wheat/Maize price ratioRand/ton
Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African WheatIndustry:Wheat/Maize price ratio                          Whea...
Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat IndustryWheat Price fluctuations
Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat IndustryHigh production costsComparison of international wheat pr...
Factors affecting competitiveness of South African WheatIndustryChallenging production environment• Winter rainfall area: ...
Factors affecting competitiveness of South African WheatIndustryChallenging environment: USA                              ...
Profile: South African Wheat Industry • Commercial                           99% • Small-Holder                     <1% • ...
Profile: Small-holder wheat farmer• 8% own land• 42% farm on commercial land• 45% members of farmer organisations• 61% of ...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityAccess to sound scientific data on production pract...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityAccess to long-term Cultivar Performance Data Avera...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityClose the gap between on-farm yields and genetic po...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncrease wheat productivity to 1%/year• 1966 – 1979...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncrease wheat productivitySource: CIMMYT
Wheat yield and quality comparisons between WesternCape and Western Australia 2011Region      Yield (ton/ha)   Hectolitre ...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityBalanced approach towards wheat quality vs wheat pr...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveys
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveysDistribution of Ug...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveysBiotype distributi...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveys Biotype distribut...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food security Extend the successes achieved with conservation ag...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncreased focus on the development of bio-insectici...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncreased focus on the development of bio-insectici...
Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food security • Higher and stable yields especially in the Highv...
Interventions needed from National Government• Focus on small-holder productivity• Increase and continuously align capacit...
Conclusion       Profitable Wheat Production System                        +              Supportive Government           ...
A competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food Security
A competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food Security
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A competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food Security

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Presentation by Dr. Cobus LeRoux (ARC-Field Crops Division, South Africa) at Wheat for Food Security in Africa conference, Oct 9, 2012, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

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Transcript of "A competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food Security"

  1. 1. A Competitive South African Wheat Industry Is Paramount To Food SecurityCobus le RouxARC-Field Crops Division
  2. 2. Curiosity Rover makes near-perfect landing on Mars
  3. 3. UndernourishmentSource: FAO
  4. 4. World estimates: Total grains 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 est forecast 23.08 28.09TOTAL GRAINS*Production 1799 1751 1850 1779 1767Trade 240 243 268 249 249Consumption 1769 1785 1845 1809 1806Carryover stocks 401 367 372 338 332 year/year change 30 -34 5 -40 Major exporters a) 173 140 129 103 99a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States* Wheat and coarse grainsSource: International Grain Council
  5. 5. World estimates: Wheat 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 est forecast 23.08 28.09WHEATProduction 679 653 696 662 657Trade 128 126 145 133 132Consumption 653 659 691 679 679Carryover stocks 199 193 197 180 175 year/year change 26 -6 4 -22 Major exporters a) 78 72 70 54 51a) Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United StatesSource: International Grain Council
  6. 6. Per capita food production, calories (kcal/day, 2009)
  7. 7. As for the future, our task is clear ……… Today the world’s population is growing at 200 people per minute and is forecasted to reach 12 billion by 2050. The daunting task for us as agricultural sector is to produce double the amount of food in the next 50 years, than what we produced since the beginning of agriculture 10 000 years ago.
  8. 8. Access: South African, supply and demand Source: Landbouweekblad Production, consumption, trade, price of South African wheat Thousand tons Production Consumption Imports
  9. 9. Affordability: Poorest 30% of South African household’s budget spenton food and non-alcoholic beverages • 2005/2006 14,5% • 2008/2009 19,3% • 2011/2012 36,4%
  10. 10. Affordability: SA consumers are paying more for food …Source: M & G
  11. 11. Affordability: Bread and cereals are increasing the mostSource: M & G
  12. 12. Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African Wheat Industry: Wheat/Maize price ratioRand/ton
  13. 13. Factors affecting competitiveness of the South African WheatIndustry:Wheat/Maize price ratio Wheat Maize Soybeans
  14. 14. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat IndustryWheat Price fluctuations
  15. 15. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African Wheat IndustryHigh production costsComparison of international wheat production cost in 2011 Argentina USA Germany Australia Canada RSA RSA Dryland* IrrigationYield (t/ha) 4.17 3.7 7.62 2.54 3.14 2.3 8.37Total Cost ($/ha) 627 638 1734 517 573 799 1621Cost per ton ($) 150 172 227 204 182 347 194Government Supp 0 7.37 56.40 2.86 0 0 0($/ton)Source: BFAP, 2011 and www.agribenchmark.org
  16. 16. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African WheatIndustryChallenging production environment• Winter rainfall area: Stable• Irrigation summer rainfall area: Stable• Dryland summer rainfall area: Unstable and changing
  17. 17. Factors affecting competitiveness of South African WheatIndustryChallenging environment: USA Source: Time Magazine
  18. 18. Profile: South African Wheat Industry • Commercial 99% • Small-Holder <1% • Dryland Production 56% • Irrigation Production 44% • Past 10 years: Production <19% Consumption >17% • Imports 37%
  19. 19. Profile: Small-holder wheat farmer• 8% own land• 42% farm on commercial land• 45% members of farmer organisations• 61% of farms are smaller than 10 ha• 77% of farmers have (on average) 9 years experience
  20. 20. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityAccess to sound scientific data on production practices, cultivarperformance, etc. Recommended cultivars: • 20 Irrigation • 11 Spring Dryland • 16 Intermediate Dryland
  21. 21. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityAccess to long-term Cultivar Performance Data Average yield (ton/ha) of entries for the Swartland area during the full or partial period from 2008 - 2011 4 year average 3 year average 2 year average Cultivar 2011 R 2010 R 2009 R 2008 R R R R 2008-2011 2009-2011 2010-2011 Baviaans 3.54 9 3.07 8 3.62 11 4.27 6 3.62 6 3.41 9 3.30 7 Duzi 3.87 10 Kariega 3.48 10 3.08 6 3.66 10 4.21 7 3.61 7 3.41 8 3.28 10 Kwartel 3.56 8 PAN 3408 3.86 1 3.26 2 4.00 4 4.42 3 3.89 1 3.71 1 3.56 1 PAN 3434 3.40 12 3.18 4 3.85 7 4.34 5 3.69 5 3.48 7 3.29 9 PAN 3471 3.78 3 3.08 6 3.93 6 3.60 5 3.43 3 PAN 3492 3.76 11 Ratel 3.77 4 SST 015 3.79 2 3.04 10 4.10 3 4.35 4 3.82 4 3.64 3 3.42 4 SST 027 3.58 7 3.06 9 4.11 2 4.60 1 3.84 3 3.58 6 3.32 6 SST 047 3.37 14 2.97 11 3.85 8 3.40 10 3.17 11 SST 056 3.60 5 3.17 5 4.23 1 3.67 2 3.38 5 SST 087 3.39 13 3.20 3 3.30 8 SST 096 3.45 11 SST 57 4.00 9 SST 88 3.58 6 3.29 1 3.94 5 4.57 2 3.84 2 3.60 4 3.43 2 Tankwa 3.33 15 2.91 12 3.81 9 4.08 8 3.53 8 3.35 11 3.12 12 Average 3.56 3.11 3.92 4.22 3.73 3.53 3.33 LSDt(0,05) 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.08 0.09 0.11
  22. 22. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityClose the gap between on-farm yields and genetic potential of cultivars Region Genetic Real (t/ha) Potential (t/ha) Swartland 3,5 2,36 Northern Cape 8,46 6,9 Free State 2,47 1.68 Mpumalanga 6,31 5,6
  23. 23. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncrease wheat productivity to 1%/year• 1966 – 1979: 3,6% productivity growth per annum High yielding semi-dwarf cultivars, improved cropping Green Revolution practices, favorable policies and financial support• 1984 – 1994: 2,8% productivity growth/annum• 1995 – 2005: 1,1% productivity growth/annum
  24. 24. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncrease wheat productivitySource: CIMMYT
  25. 25. Wheat yield and quality comparisons between WesternCape and Western Australia 2011Region Yield (ton/ha) Hectolitre mass (kg/hl) Protein (%)Rûens 4.31 79.60 11.98Swartland 3.56 78.79 11.93Mean 3.94 79.19 11.95Region Yield (ton/ha) Hectolitre mass (kg/hl) Protein (%)Agzone 1 3.71 73.35 11.81Agzone 2 2.84 73.93 10.49Agzone 3 4.63 74.82 12.26Agzone 4 2.35 75.57 11.38Agzone 5 2.34 72.02 12.92Mean 3.18 73.94 11.77
  26. 26. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityBalanced approach towards wheat quality vs wheat productivity ARG AUS BRA CAN GER USA RSA Protein 11.74 12.17 12.54 14.20 10.95 * 10.64 * 12.00 Hlm 78.8 83.9 77.6 79.0 81.2 78.2 77.6 Flour yield 73.9 * 74.5 70.2 * 74.6 75.5 73.1 * 75.7 Flour colour -1.2 -2.6 0.4 -1.8 -1.3 -1.3 -1.5 Farinogram Water absorption 60.5 61.9 63.2 62.3 60.5 55.2 * 61.1 Dev. time 2.3 * 3.9 2.3 * 5.5 1.8 * 1.7 * 4.0 Alveogram Dough strength 39.4 49.5 30.5 * 51.2 32.4 * 26.1 * 38.0 P/L 2.11 * 1.26 2.09 * 1.01 2.09 * 1.09 0.90 Mixogram Peak time 4.0 * 2.8 2.8 3.2 3.4 4.0 * 2.6 100g Baking test Loaf volume 764 * 833 785 * 956 715 * 729 * 902 Evaluation 3* 2 3* 2 3* 1 0 Deviates from SA release criteria Comply with SA release criteria
  27. 27. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveys
  28. 28. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveysDistribution of Ug99-lineage Stem rust races in South Africa 2SA106 2SA107 2SA88+ SrMtlb
  29. 29. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveysBiotype distribution: RWASA1-8% RWASA2-30% RWASA3-18% No RWA found-24% Not screened-19%
  30. 30. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityMaintain disease and pest surveys Biotype distribution: RWASA1-29% RWASA2-2% RWASA3-9% No RWA found-48% Not screened-9%
  31. 31. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food security Extend the successes achieved with conservation agriculture to rest of South Africa, including small holder farmers• There was a dramatic change to CA in the winter rainfall area over the last decade• In 2002 an estimated 10% of wheat area under CA systems• In 2012 an estimated 70% under CA• Input costs decreased drastically, especially seeding rate and nitrogen applications• Biggest challenge in CA systems is herbicide resistance
  32. 32. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncreased focus on the development of bio-insecticides in anendeavour to lower input costs• ARC-SGI currently curates the largest and most diverse collection of entomopathogenic nematodes in South Africa (>135 isolates)• Two new species in the genus Steinernema currently being described• Research on the use of epn’s against soil-borne pests such as false wireworm and cutworm currently underway Infected adult of false wireworm Gonocephalum simplex
  33. 33. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food securityIncreased focus on the development of bio-insecticides in anendeavour to lower input costs • Myco-insecticide against African bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera (prototype product in final year of field-testing before registration) Infected larva Field trial 2011 • Myco-insecticide against oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (vector of BYDV in wheat under irrigated conditions) • >500 isolates of Beauveria bassiana in ARC-SGI collection; currently screening to identify most virulent strain Infected oat aphid
  34. 34. Scientific Interventions needed to ensure competitiveness/food security • Higher and stable yields especially in the Highveld production areas • Drought/heat tolerance in the marginal, low input, low decision- making areas • Concentrate on the different nutrient and water-use efficiencies of cultivars and production systems. Kg grain produced/ml water • Lower input costs • A diversified approach towards herbicide resistance • Re-introduce higher levels of rust resistance in commercial cultivars
  35. 35. Interventions needed from National Government• Focus on small-holder productivity• Increase and continuously align capacity building with changing needs• Lobby Government support in an endeavour to attain wheat security through at least 85% local production• Access to a viable local wheat market and industry• Government supported seed and drought insurance schemes• Constant access to supply, demand, market and value-chain data
  36. 36. Conclusion Profitable Wheat Production System + Supportive Government + Emphasis on local productions + Affordable Wheat Products Wheat Secure Africa
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