The REDD-pac project and Globiom Brazil

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This presentation shows how land use models can be used for policy evaluation, what the Globiom Model is and what Globiom in Brazil does. Also it will give some preliminary results concerning forest evolution and draw conclusions from that.

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  • The REDD-pac project and Globiom Brazil

    1. 1. THE REDD-PAC PROJECT AND GLOBIOM BRAZIL Gilberto Câmara, INPE Aline Mosnier, IIASA Fernando Ramos, INPE Ricardo Cartaxo, INPE Aline Soterroni, INPE Pedro Andrade, INPE Alexandre Ywata, IPEA alexandre.ywata@ipea.gov.br Warsaw, November 16, 2013 National Institute for Space Research - Brazil
    2. 2. REDD+ Policy Assessment Center
    3. 3. Introduction What are the local strategies that can contribute to the global goals? • The outcome with the local strategy must be better than without the strategy globally • Taking into account direct and indirect effects in all the sectors • Taking into account indirect effects in the other countries/regions
    4. 4. Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation The Brazilian Case: • The new forest code • Low carbon agriculture program (ABC program) • Loans to technology adoption and intensification • PPCerrado (plan to reduce deforestation in the Cerrado Biome) • Plans for other biomes • Forest plantation policies • Infrastructure improvements • Etc. Land use models may help understand the potential joint impact
    5. 5. Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation Policies to be addressed with land use models: biofuels in Brazil Gasoline Price Increase in biofuels prices for the producers Change in land use dynamics Relative prices: gasoline versus alcohol Domestic demand shit - Deforestation pressure - Crop production - Emissions - Pasture areas - Spatial location - Land use change
    6. 6. Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation Policies to be addressed with land use models: subsidized loans to rural producers (example, ABC Program) Subsidized loans Technology adoption (intensification, sustainable techniques etc.) Reducing deforestation pressure Increase in productivity - Crop production - Emissions - Pasture areas - Spatial location - Land use change
    7. 7. GLOBIOM MODEL
    8. 8. GLOBIOM DEMAND Exogenous drivers Wood products Population, GDP Food Process PROCESS Primary wood Crops products Bioenergy 28 regions SUPPLY HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil Altitude class, Slope class, Soil Class PX5 Aggregation in larger units (max 200*200 km) PX5 Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500; Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50; SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA Biophysical models Climate EPIC G4M Soil and topography Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat; RUMINANT Management Land cover Between 10*10 km and 50*50 km
    9. 9. Spatially explicit input data • Initial land cover => GLC 2000 CROPLAND GRASSLAND FORESTS OTHER NATURAL LAND
    10. 10. Spatially explicit input data AGRICULTURE Wheat Rice Maize Soybean Barley Sorghum Millet Cotton Dry beans Rapeseed Groundnut Sugarcane Potatoes Cassava Sunflower Chickpeas Oil Palm Sweet potatoes Buffalo Cattle Sheep Goat Pig Poultry Beef Lamb Pork Poultry Eggs Milk FORESTRY BIOENERGY Biomass for log production Fuel wood Other wood Ethanol FAME Methanol Heat Electricity Biogas Pulp wood Logs
    11. 11. GLOBIOM BRAZIL
    12. 12. Improvements on Brazilian Model • Transportation costs • Land cover and land use • Productivity • Total Production • Domestic demand • Scenarios for per capita GDP, population growth, biofuels consumption • Calibration and fine tuning for model parameters
    13. 13. GLOBIOM Brazil • 11003 SimUs • 3001 CRs
    14. 14. GLOBIOM Brazil • 11003 SimUs • 3001 CRs • 26 States + DF
    15. 15. GLOBIOM Brazil • 11003 SimUs • 3001 CRs • 26 States + DF • Legal Amazon
    16. 16. GLOBIOM Brazil • 11003 SimUs • 3001 CRs • 26 States + DF • Legal Amazon • 6 Biomes
    17. 17. TRANSPORTATION COSTS CORN SOY COSTS TO NEAREST PORT
    18. 18. New Land Cover and Use Map PROTECTED AREAS CROP DISTRIBUTION (2000)
    19. 19. PRELIMINARY RESULTS FOREST EVOLUTION
    20. 20. Forest Evolution – 2000
    21. 21. Forest Evolution – 2010
    22. 22. Forest Evolution – 2020
    23. 23. Forest Evolution – 2030
    24. 24. Forest Evolution – 2040
    25. 25. Forest Evolution – 2050
    26. 26. Deforestation Pattern (2000 to 2010)
    27. 27. Arc of Deforestation Source: FAO
    28. 28. Land Use Models for Policy Evaluation • Policy planning has be scientific evidence based • Land use is too complex to be addressed by a monosectorial approach • GLOBIOM integrates a large set of geo-maps, biophysical and biodiversity information, and economic theory and helps us provide assessment over time
    29. 29. THANK YOU!

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