Stock-Flow Approach to Sub-national RELs:                Example from Central Xingu                       Bronson Griscom ...
What is a Stock-Flow Approach?A mechanism that provides incentive payments to conserve  forests in both historically high-...
Here’s an example of how this could be appliedin Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, whereTNC is working…
Central Xingu Program Area, Southern Para
Potential Emissions Reductions by Zones in Central Xingu                    (based on simple historic REL)Source Data: Gri...
Carbon Stocks by Zones in Central XinguSource Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005...
Basic PrinciplesReference Emissions Level (REL)• Historic emissions baseline• “Business as usual” projection              ...
Basic Principles• The design of RELs will affect:   – cost of obtaining the reductions (efficiency)   – distribution of RE...
We propose that the REL is simply the           historic mean emissions.     Why?Because:1)    Transparency2)    Broaden a...
Simple historic REL vs. RELs based    on linear trend analysis
Only three States with statistically significant historic lineartrends…
Comparison of:•Actual Deforestation (solid line)•Modeled linear projection (dotted line)•Simple Historic mean projection (...
Simple historic REL vs. RELs based    on linear trend analysis                        Simple historic mean Error          ...
OK, but then how do we include areas with low historicemissions but high stocks, such as Indigenous Lands?Answer: A “Stock...
Scenario 1: Simple Historic Mean REL, No Stock Re-Allocation                   Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area           ...
Scenario 2: Simple Historic Mean REL, 15% Stock Re-Allocation               Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area        Stocks...
Scenario 3: Simple Historic Mean REL, 30% Stock Re-Allocation               Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area        Stocks...
Rules for Eligibility to Stock Funding                     Private Lands:                  High past deforestation        ...
Advantages of Stock-Flow Approach •Environmental Integrity. •Focus stakeholder negotiations on decision about trade-off be...
thanks!Edenise Garcia (egarcia@tnc.org)Rane Cortez (rcortez@tnc.org)Bronson Griscom (bgriscom@tnc.org)
historic average Reference Emissions Level (REL)                                                                        co...
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Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu

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Credible baseline setting and accurate and transparent Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of results are key conditions for successful REDD+ projects. In this presentation, Edenise Garcia from The Nature Conservancy introduces the ‘stock-flow approach’ as a means for establishing efficient, equitable, and environmentally sound reference emissions levels for REDD+. She gives an example as to how this approach might work in the Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, Brazil.

Edenise Garcia gave this presentation on 8 March 2012 at a workshop organised by CIFOR, ‘Measurement, Reporting and Verification in Latin American REDD+ Projects’, held in Petropolis, Brazil. The workshop aimed to explore important advances, challenges, pitfalls, and innovations in REDD+ methods — thereby moving towards overcoming barriers to meeting MRV requirements at REDD+ project sites in two of the Amazon’s most important REDD+ candidate countries, Peru and Brazil. For further information about the workshop, please contact Shijo Joseph via s.joseph (at) cgiar.org

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Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu

  1. 1. Stock-Flow Approach to Sub-national RELs: Example from Central Xingu Bronson Griscom & Rane CortezPhoto by Peter Ellis Edenise Garcia Science Coordinator – Amazon Conservation Program March 8, 2012
  2. 2. What is a Stock-Flow Approach?A mechanism that provides incentive payments to conserve forests in both historically high- and low-deforestationregions while maintaining a level of environmental integrity through an actual impact on mitigation A portion of payments for emissions reductions would be put into a “stabilization fund” that would re-allocate payments based on forest carbon stocks Incentive for maintaining forest carbon stocks
  3. 3. Here’s an example of how this could be appliedin Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, whereTNC is working…
  4. 4. Central Xingu Program Area, Southern Para
  5. 5. Potential Emissions Reductions by Zones in Central Xingu (based on simple historic REL)Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
  6. 6. Carbon Stocks by Zones in Central XinguSource Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
  7. 7. Basic PrinciplesReference Emissions Level (REL)• Historic emissions baseline• “Business as usual” projection Accounting vs. Crediting a direct reflection of involves additional issues carbon emissions of equity and political negotiations Qualifier: This is just an example for technical discussion – many questions remain to be resolved by Brazilian stakeholders before a municipality scale REL approach is resolved.
  8. 8. Basic Principles• The design of RELs will affect: – cost of obtaining the reductions (efficiency) – distribution of REDD+ revenue across countries and regions (equity), and – the ability of the REDD+ mechanism to produce credible emissions reductions (environmental integrity),• Trade-off between efficiency and equity (and integrity).A stock-flow approach uses two instruments to minimize thetrade-offs: Accounting REL determined as simple historic average emissions. A “stock fund”
  9. 9. We propose that the REL is simply the historic mean emissions. Why?Because:1) Transparency2) Broaden applicability3) More complex ≠ more accurate
  10. 10. Simple historic REL vs. RELs based on linear trend analysis
  11. 11. Only three States with statistically significant historic lineartrends…
  12. 12. Comparison of:•Actual Deforestation (solid line)•Modeled linear projection (dotted line)•Simple Historic mean projection (dashed line)
  13. 13. Simple historic REL vs. RELs based on linear trend analysis Simple historic mean Error DO NOT DISTRIBUTE - INTERNAL TNC DOCUMENT
  14. 14. OK, but then how do we include areas with low historicemissions but high stocks, such as Indigenous Lands?Answer: A “Stock Fund” to re-distribute a portion of incentivesfrom emissions reductions to areas with high stocks. historic average REL allocation to Stock Fund Emissions (GtCO2/yr) crediting -10 y START +10y +20y
  15. 15. Scenario 1: Simple Historic Mean REL, No Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 Indigenous Lands would receive less than 20% of incentives, while holding over 60% of stocksSource Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
  16. 16. Scenario 2: Simple Historic Mean REL, 15% Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 •15% set aside for Stabilization Fund.
  17. 17. Scenario 3: Simple Historic Mean REL, 30% Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 •30% set aside for Stabilization Fund.
  18. 18. Rules for Eligibility to Stock Funding Private Lands: High past deforestation REL Zone X Emissions Rate Municipality Mean eligible for SF Start 20 yrs PA’s & IL’s: Low past deforestation Emissions Rate develop. ½ Municipality mean eligible for SF REL Zone Y Start 20 yrs
  19. 19. Advantages of Stock-Flow Approach •Environmental Integrity. •Focus stakeholder negotiations on decision about trade-off between Equity and Efficiency. •Relieves pressure to attempt to project changes from historic rates. •Can be adjusted to address leakage issue.
  20. 20. thanks!Edenise Garcia (egarcia@tnc.org)Rane Cortez (rcortez@tnc.org)Bronson Griscom (bgriscom@tnc.org)
  21. 21. historic average Reference Emissions Level (REL) country’s self-financed actions and/or public $Emissions (GtCO2/yr) crediting -10 y START +10y +20y +30y +40y
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