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Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu
 

Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu

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Credible baseline setting and accurate and transparent Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of results are key conditions for successful REDD+ projects. In this presentation, Edenise Garcia ...

Credible baseline setting and accurate and transparent Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) of results are key conditions for successful REDD+ projects. In this presentation, Edenise Garcia from The Nature Conservancy introduces the ‘stock-flow approach’ as a means for establishing efficient, equitable, and environmentally sound reference emissions levels for REDD+. She gives an example as to how this approach might work in the Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, Brazil.

Edenise Garcia gave this presentation on 8 March 2012 at a workshop organised by CIFOR, ‘Measurement, Reporting and Verification in Latin American REDD+ Projects’, held in Petropolis, Brazil. The workshop aimed to explore important advances, challenges, pitfalls, and innovations in REDD+ methods — thereby moving towards overcoming barriers to meeting MRV requirements at REDD+ project sites in two of the Amazon’s most important REDD+ candidate countries, Peru and Brazil. For further information about the workshop, please contact Shijo Joseph via s.joseph (at) cgiar.org

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    Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu Stock-flow approach to sub-national reference emission levels: example from Central Xingu Presentation Transcript

    • Stock-Flow Approach to Sub-national RELs: Example from Central Xingu Bronson Griscom & Rane CortezPhoto by Peter Ellis Edenise Garcia Science Coordinator – Amazon Conservation Program March 8, 2012
    • What is a Stock-Flow Approach?A mechanism that provides incentive payments to conserve forests in both historically high- and low-deforestationregions while maintaining a level of environmental integrity through an actual impact on mitigation A portion of payments for emissions reductions would be put into a “stabilization fund” that would re-allocate payments based on forest carbon stocks Incentive for maintaining forest carbon stocks
    • Here’s an example of how this could be appliedin Central Xingu REDD+ Project, Para, whereTNC is working…
    • Central Xingu Program Area, Southern Para
    • Potential Emissions Reductions by Zones in Central Xingu (based on simple historic REL)Source Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
    • Carbon Stocks by Zones in Central XinguSource Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
    • Basic PrinciplesReference Emissions Level (REL)• Historic emissions baseline• “Business as usual” projection Accounting vs. Crediting a direct reflection of involves additional issues carbon emissions of equity and political negotiations Qualifier: This is just an example for technical discussion – many questions remain to be resolved by Brazilian stakeholders before a municipality scale REL approach is resolved.
    • Basic Principles• The design of RELs will affect: – cost of obtaining the reductions (efficiency) – distribution of REDD+ revenue across countries and regions (equity), and – the ability of the REDD+ mechanism to produce credible emissions reductions (environmental integrity),• Trade-off between efficiency and equity (and integrity).A stock-flow approach uses two instruments to minimize thetrade-offs: Accounting REL determined as simple historic average emissions. A “stock fund”
    • We propose that the REL is simply the historic mean emissions. Why?Because:1) Transparency2) Broaden applicability3) More complex ≠ more accurate
    • Simple historic REL vs. RELs based on linear trend analysis
    • Only three States with statistically significant historic lineartrends…
    • Comparison of:•Actual Deforestation (solid line)•Modeled linear projection (dotted line)•Simple Historic mean projection (dashed line)
    • Simple historic REL vs. RELs based on linear trend analysis Simple historic mean Error DO NOT DISTRIBUTE - INTERNAL TNC DOCUMENT
    • OK, but then how do we include areas with low historicemissions but high stocks, such as Indigenous Lands?Answer: A “Stock Fund” to re-distribute a portion of incentivesfrom emissions reductions to areas with high stocks. historic average REL allocation to Stock Fund Emissions (GtCO2/yr) crediting -10 y START +10y +20y
    • Scenario 1: Simple Historic Mean REL, No Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 Indigenous Lands would receive less than 20% of incentives, while holding over 60% of stocksSource Data: Griscom & Kerkering, 2010, based on data from INPE, Asner et. al. 2005, Saatchi et. al. 2007
    • Scenario 2: Simple Historic Mean REL, 15% Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 •15% set aside for Stabilization Fund.
    • Scenario 3: Simple Historic Mean REL, 30% Stock Re-Allocation Central Xingu REDD+ Project Area Stocks: >1% 10% 1% 27% 22% 39% Scenario: •25% ERs •10 “incentive nuggets” per ton CO2 •30% set aside for Stabilization Fund.
    • Rules for Eligibility to Stock Funding Private Lands: High past deforestation REL Zone X Emissions Rate Municipality Mean eligible for SF Start 20 yrs PA’s & IL’s: Low past deforestation Emissions Rate develop. ½ Municipality mean eligible for SF REL Zone Y Start 20 yrs
    • Advantages of Stock-Flow Approach •Environmental Integrity. •Focus stakeholder negotiations on decision about trade-off between Equity and Efficiency. •Relieves pressure to attempt to project changes from historic rates. •Can be adjusted to address leakage issue.
    • thanks!Edenise Garcia (egarcia@tnc.org)Rane Cortez (rcortez@tnc.org)Bronson Griscom (bgriscom@tnc.org)
    • historic average Reference Emissions Level (REL) country’s self-financed actions and/or public $Emissions (GtCO2/yr) crediting -10 y START +10y +20y +30y +40y