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Land Use Change Modelling in the ROBIN project: a multi-scale idea

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This presentation by Michiel van Eupen from Wageningen University explains what ROBIN is and what role land use modeling plays in ROBIN.

This presentation by Michiel van Eupen from Wageningen University explains what ROBIN is and what role land use modeling plays in ROBIN.

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  • 1. Land Use Change Modelling in the ROBIN project; a multi-scale idea Michiel van Eupen, Alterra Wageningen University Technical & Networking Session 1.1 Supporting landscape scale planning for REDD+; How useful are land use change models? UNEP, WCMC, IIASA, Warsaw, 16 November 2013
  • 2. What is ROBIN? Climate Change Mitigation Land Use Change Biodiversity
  • 3. Role of Land Use Modelling in ROBIN Continental  Main Objective:  further use by vegetation models like LPJm /JULES  + ESS modelling at continental scale  Entire South- + Meso-America:  1km scale resolution, limited amount of land use classes equal in each country  Based on available (world ) datasets  Focussing on major (generic) socio- economic pathways+ knowledge  Using CLUE-s land use change model Regional (=landscape?)  Main Objective:  regional policy evaluation  Finding relevant thresholds at regional scale  policies  to see to what level up- and downscaling is relevant  Different regional scales: Amazone, country (Mexico), detailed case stud.  extended land use classes, regionally specific  Using regional, specific data  Specific regional policy scenarios  Using CLUE –s/Dinamica & Participative modelling tools
  • 4. Continental: CLUE model structure CLUE will provide: • yearly output maps of future land use and hence, ageing Y Xβ  ε ,  ~ N(0, 2 )
  • 5. Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005
  • 6. Bolivia: CLUE-Continental 2005
  • 7. QUICKScan participatory approach for creating maps + rules Y Xβ  ε ,  ~ N(0, 2 )
  • 8. Workflow combining Maps & Rules Map and compare alternatives Output Map Rules used Trace back to Rules used Statistics per adm.unit
  • 9. QUICKScan changes land cover Pantanal Effects of floodings due to upstream erosion & climate conditions
  • 10. How useful are land use change models on the land scape scale?”  Focus on policy development  current limiting factors land-use planning?  CLUE approach is „needed‟  generic method to translate demands/changes in to patterns.  link with existing models etc.  On the land scape scale models like CLUE needs to be linked to the policy + planning issues  not easy  Policies are made by people (policy makers....not modellers): “Useful for who?” The Policy maker or the scientist?  The policymaker needs to TRUST the model output.  Model s should be transparent enough to judge the effect of the assumptions 

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