Comparison of methods to
derive reference levels for REDD
            Forest Day 3 Learning Event
  Measuring and monitori...
Definition
• The UNFCCC SB 28 decision describes
  Reference Emissions Levels (REL) as follows:
  “Means to establish refe...
Importance of RL
• Reference emission levels (ideally) determine
  the scale and duration of emissions occuring
  without ...
RL options (1)
• Historical baseline (retrospective):
  – Method: historical extrapolation of forest cover
    data (RS; e...
RL options (2)
• Projected baseline (prospective):
  – Method: historical forest cover data and
    assumption of future d...
RL options (3)
• Historical adjusted baseline (hybrid)
  – Method: putting national (historical extrapolated)
    baseline...
National adjustment
• Historical REL+ individual accounting of
  national circumstances / development
  adjustment factor
...
Role of drivers in setting REDD
             baselines
• Historical deforestation pathways have very
  limited predictive ...
Main RL requirements
• Environmentally effective: Additionality of
  emission reductions
• Practically applicable: flexibl...
Indicator importance rating
Weighted multi-criteria analysis
Thank you for your attention
Example

• Extrapolated forest area change in Costa Rica




                                      Source: based on FAO
  ...
Trends in deforestation
          Land use sector undeveloped
100%
                                                 Refore...
Deforestation rates 2000-2005 against
                                                         relative forest cover in 20...
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Comparison of methods to derive reference levels for REDD

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Presentation by Michael Huettner, Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena/Germany
Measuring and monitoring, baselines and leakage, Forest Day 3
Sunday, 13 December 2009
Copenhagen, Denmark

Published in: Education, Technology
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Comparison of methods to derive reference levels for REDD

  1. 1. Comparison of methods to derive reference levels for REDD Forest Day 3 Learning Event Measuring and monitoring, baselines and leakage 12/13/2009 Michael Huettner Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena / Germany
  2. 2. Definition • The UNFCCC SB 28 decision describes Reference Emissions Levels (REL) as follows: “Means to establish reference emission levels, based on historical data, taking into account, inter alia, trends, starting dates and the length of the reference period, availability and reliability of historical data, and other specific national circumstances.”
  3. 3. Importance of RL • Reference emission levels (ideally) determine the scale and duration of emissions occuring without REDD activities  to determine ambition of REDD measures • shape the environmental and economic performance for REDD, but also influence the willingness of parties to join such mechanism
  4. 4. RL options (1) • Historical baseline (retrospective): – Method: historical extrapolation of forest cover data (RS; e.g. Landsat) – Based on: Santilli et al (2005): Compensated conservation – Examples: Brazil, Indonesia
  5. 5. RL options (2) • Projected baseline (prospective): – Method: historical forest cover data and assumption of future driver development combined – Based on: Soares-Filho et al (2006, SimAmazonia); Brown et al (2006, GEOMOD), etc… – Examples: State of Amazonia, Noel Kempff Climate Action project in Bolivia
  6. 6. RL options (3) • Historical adjusted baseline (hybrid) – Method: putting national (historical extrapolated) baselines in relation (to a global baseline / remaining forest cover) – Based on: Mollicone et al (2007), Strassburg et al (2009) – Examples: COMIFAC, (CfRN)
  7. 7. National adjustment • Historical REL+ individual accounting of national circumstances / development adjustment factor • Adjustment based on : – Remaining usable forest area? – Socio-economic indicators? – Forest trajectories? – Negotiation  Danger of „Political bargaining“
  8. 8. Role of drivers in setting REDD baselines • Historical deforestation pathways have very limited predictive power - Example • Additionality – an issue for REDD? • Hot air threat: Forest transition (Costa Rica) • Underfinancing threat: Land-use increase (Congo basin states) • Irreducible complexity of subjective drivers (policy decisions, oil price, security, etc.)
  9. 9. Main RL requirements • Environmentally effective: Additionality of emission reductions • Practically applicable: flexible and robust for different country situations • Transparent and politically fair • Economically attractive • Adaptive: reviewed and adjusted over time
  10. 10. Indicator importance rating
  11. 11. Weighted multi-criteria analysis
  12. 12. Thank you for your attention
  13. 13. Example • Extrapolated forest area change in Costa Rica Source: based on FAO FRA 2005
  14. 14. Trends in deforestation Land use sector undeveloped 100% Reforestation / Deforestation Afforestation Forest transition Forest Cover Forest depletion Source: modified from World Bank (2007) 0% Time
  15. 15. Deforestation rates 2000-2005 against relative forest cover in 2000 Climate (according to FAO): Tropical countries Forest area 2000 (1000ha) (Binned) Annual change rate 2000-2005 (%) no plantations 2,00 <= 1000 1001 - 2000 0,00 2001 - 3000 3001 - 4000 4001 - 5000 5001 - 6000 -2,00 6001 - 7000 7001 - 8000 8001 - 9000 -4,00 9001 - 10000 10001+ -6,00 Nigeria -8,00 -10,00 Source: FAO FRA (2005) -12,00 0,00 20,00 40,00 60,00 80,00 100,00 Forest area 2000 (% of land area) no plantations
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