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Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin

Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin






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    Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin Presentation Transcript

    • Climate Change Scenarios for theCongo BasinFulco Ludwig, Andreas Haensler and Paul Scholte
    • Modelling chain of the project
    • Observed temperatures and precipitation
    • Projected changes in annual temperaturesHighemissionscenarioLowemissionscenario
    • projected changes for frequency of hotdays and nights
    • Projectedchanges inseasonalprecipitation
    • Projected changes in intensity of heavy rainfall eventsHighemissionscenarioLowemissionscenario
    • Average changes (%) in precipitation, evapo-transpiration and runoff across the Congo River Basin
    • Impact ofclimatechange onmean, highand low riverflows
    • Climate change impacts on hydrologicalcycle Changes in run-off mainly depend on changes in rainfall●As rainfall changes are uncertain run-off changesare also uncertain Run-off and discharge will increase – especially duringthe wet season●River discharge increases – up to 60% - could causeincreased flooding Difference between wet and dry season will becomelarger Especially in the northern and southern parts of theregion lower low flows and more drought are projectedfor the future
    • Climate change impacts on river flow intofive different hydropower dams
    • Climate change impacts on hydropowerproductionMore average run-off increases the potential forenergy production from hydropower●But due to the uncertainties in future run-off this isnot certainThe run-off however will become more variablethis will make dam management morecomplicated and energy availability less reliableIncreased peak flow can also affect hydropowerfacilities●For example dam levels have to lowered to cover forpeak flow●Extreme flows could damage dams and facilities
    • Climate change impacts on ecosystemcarbon storage
    • Climate change impacts on agriculture Higher CO2 concentrations potentially increases production andreduce agricultural water use Higher temperatures reduces plant growth, cause heat stressand increase evaporation Water stress will increase in the drier parts of the regions High temperatures and high humidity make crops sensitive todiseases In the northern and southern plant production will be affectedby more frequent droughts and dry spells Locally, agriculture will be affected by high intensive rainfallevents and floods
    • Agriculture - conclusion In the region, water will not become a limiting factor foragricultural production – with the acceptance of northernedge of the region (mainly Chad) In terms of climate change, temperature increases willbe of more importance than changes inevapotranspiration and rainfall
    • Need for adaptationimprove preparedness for extreme weather eventssuch as droughts and floods in the agricultural and energy sector there is a need forrisk spreading by diversification●grow different crops and also different varieties to reduceimpact of climate variability●Countries should be careful not to become fully dependent onhydropower because this makes them too vulnerable todroughts To prevent forest degeneration and erosion there should bemore attention on reforestation and agroforestry Programs on food and water security should develop strategiesto manage climate variability so they are prepared for bothdry and wet periods