Climate Change Scenarios for the Congo Basin
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  • 1. Climate Change Scenarios for theCongo BasinFulco Ludwig, Andreas Haensler and Paul Scholte
  • 2. Modelling chain of the project
  • 3. Observed temperatures and precipitation
  • 4. Projected changes in annual temperaturesHighemissionscenarioLowemissionscenario
  • 5. projected changes for frequency of hotdays and nights
  • 6. Projectedchanges inseasonalprecipitation
  • 7. Projected changes in intensity of heavy rainfall eventsHighemissionscenarioLowemissionscenario
  • 8. Average changes (%) in precipitation, evapo-transpiration and runoff across the Congo River Basin
  • 9. Impact ofclimatechange onmean, highand low riverflows
  • 10. Climate change impacts on hydrologicalcycle Changes in run-off mainly depend on changes in rainfall●As rainfall changes are uncertain run-off changesare also uncertain Run-off and discharge will increase – especially duringthe wet season●River discharge increases – up to 60% - could causeincreased flooding Difference between wet and dry season will becomelarger Especially in the northern and southern parts of theregion lower low flows and more drought are projectedfor the future
  • 11. Climate change impacts on river flow intofive different hydropower dams
  • 12. Climate change impacts on hydropowerproductionMore average run-off increases the potential forenergy production from hydropower●But due to the uncertainties in future run-off this isnot certainThe run-off however will become more variablethis will make dam management morecomplicated and energy availability less reliableIncreased peak flow can also affect hydropowerfacilities●For example dam levels have to lowered to cover forpeak flow●Extreme flows could damage dams and facilities
  • 13. Climate change impacts on ecosystemcarbon storage
  • 14. Climate change impacts on agriculture Higher CO2 concentrations potentially increases production andreduce agricultural water use Higher temperatures reduces plant growth, cause heat stressand increase evaporation Water stress will increase in the drier parts of the regions High temperatures and high humidity make crops sensitive todiseases In the northern and southern plant production will be affectedby more frequent droughts and dry spells Locally, agriculture will be affected by high intensive rainfallevents and floods
  • 15. Agriculture - conclusion In the region, water will not become a limiting factor foragricultural production – with the acceptance of northernedge of the region (mainly Chad) In terms of climate change, temperature increases willbe of more importance than changes inevapotranspiration and rainfall
  • 16. Need for adaptationimprove preparedness for extreme weather eventssuch as droughts and floods in the agricultural and energy sector there is a need forrisk spreading by diversification●grow different crops and also different varieties to reduceimpact of climate variability●Countries should be careful not to become fully dependent onhydropower because this makes them too vulnerable todroughts To prevent forest degeneration and erosion there should bemore attention on reforestation and agroforestry Programs on food and water security should develop strategiesto manage climate variability so they are prepared for bothdry and wet periods