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Big Facts for Big Decisions

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This presentation accumulates some of the most current and most important knowledge that should be known when dealing with landscapes, climate change or similar issues. The facts include …

This presentation accumulates some of the most current and most important knowledge that should be known when dealing with landscapes, climate change or similar issues. The facts include undernourishment, population, dietary change, obesity, global food demand, food waste, agricultural emissions, deforestation emissions, biofuels and the impacts of climate change on water, crops, livestock, fisheries, forests, food security and the different adaptation measures.

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  • 1. Undernourishment 870 million people are chronically undernourished; almost two billion suffer from negative health consequences of micronutrient deficiencies. FAO, 2012 Undernourished population by region North Africa and Near East East and Southeast Asia = 100 million people = undernourished people POPULATION: 502 million UNDERNOURISHED: POPULATION: 31 million—7.10% 2.2 billion UNDERNOURISHED: 233 million—11.30% South Asia Latin America Sub-Saharan Africa POPULATION: POPULATION: POPULATION: 590 million 873 million 1.7 billion UNDERNOURISHED: UNDERNOURISHED: UNDERNOURISHED: 49 million—8.30% 234 million—26.80% 304 million—17.60% Data from FAO, 2012
  • 2. Population The world population, currently 7 billion, is expected to reach 9.3 billion by 2050 and 10.1 billion by 2100. UN-DESA, 2011 Projected change in world population, 2010–2100 2010 7.0 billion 2050 2100 9.3 billion Asia Africa 10.1 billion Europe Latin America/Caribbean North America Oceania Data from UN-DESA, 2011
  • 3. Dietary change Diets are expanding and shifting. Sugar, fat, and animal product consumption are increasing in almost all regions of the world—yet people in low- and middle-income countries still consume far less meat and dairy than those in high-income countries. Kastner et al., 2012 Projected change in meat and dairy consumption, 2005 to 2050 MEAT DIARY 2005 2050 +58% +19% North Africa and Near East +62% +23% 2005 2050 Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribbean +38% +25% +309% South Asia +63% +61% East Asia +68% OECD and Eastern Europe +11% +10% 0 50 100 150 200 KILOGRAMS PER PERSON PER YEAR 250
  • 4. Obesity Worldwide, obesity more than doubled between 1980 and 2008. More than 1.4 billion adults—one out of every five—in 2008 were overweight. One out of every ten was obese. WHO, 2012 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 5. Global food demand To meet global food demand in 2050, agricultural production must be 60 percent higher by weight than in 2005. Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012 F. Fiondella, IRI/CCAFS
  • 6. Food waste Roughly one-third of food produced for human consumption, about 1.3 billion tonnes per year, gets lost or wasted globally—the equivalent of 6 to 10 percent of human-generated greenhouse gas emissions. Gustavsson et al., 2011; Vermeulen et al., 2012 for the calculation on emissions Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 7. Global agricultural emissions Agriculture makes the greatest contribution to total food system emissions. It contributes 7,300 to 12,700 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 80 to 86 percent of food systems emissions and 14 to 24 percent of total global emissions. Vermeulen et al., 2012 Breakdown of agricultural emissions Total global emissions Power 24% Transport 14% Land use change* 18% Buildings 8% Agriculture 14% Other energy related 5% Industry 14% Waste 3% *Approximately 75% of emissions from land use change are attributed to agriculture. Food system emissions PREPRODUCTION PRODUCTION Fertilizer manufacture 3% Direct emissions 48.5% Pesticide production 0.6% Energy use in animal feed production 0.5% Indirect emissions (deforestation) 35% POSTPRODUCTION Refrigeration 4% Storage, packaging, a nd transport 3% Direct agricultural emissions Retail activities 2% Agricultural 32% Primary and secondary production 1.5% Enteric fermentation 31% Catering and domestic food 1.3% Other emissions 19% Waste disposal 0.6% Rice cultivation 12% Manure management 6%
  • 8. Food system emissions Food system emissions—from production to consumption—contribute 9,800 to 16,900 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year, or 19 to 29 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions. Vermeulen et al., 2012 4,382.5 MtCO2e/year 6,111 MtCO2e/year Indirect emissions (deforestation) 35% 560 MtCO2e/year 1,534 MtCO2e/year Direct emissions Preproduction Postproduction 49% 4% 12% PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF FOOD SYSTEM EMISSIONS Data from Vermeulen et al. 2012; USEPA, 2011; and Blaser and Robledo, 2007
  • 9. Direct agricultural emissions Non-CO2 agricultural emissions are about 6,100 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year—about 11 percent of total global greenhouse gas emissions and 56 percent of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions. US-EPA, 2011 1,864 MtCO2e/year 710 MtCO2e/year 1,984 MtCO2e/year 1,164 MtCO2e/year 389 MtCO2e/year Enteric fermentation Rice cultivation Agricultural soils Other emissions Manure management 31% 12% 32% 19% 6% PERCENT AND AMOUNT OF DIRECT AGRICULTURAL EMISSIONS Data from US-EPA, 2011
  • 10. Deforestation emissions Agriculture is the leading cause of some 75 percent of global deforestation. If rates of deforestation continue as projected, forests will diminish dramatically by 2100. Strassbourg et al., 2012; Blaser and Robledo, 2007 Forest cover observed in 2000 Forest cover projected for 2010
  • 11. Livestock emissions The global livestock sector emits almost 6,000 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at 2008 levels and accounts for about 11 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from the sector are expected to increase 70 percent by 2050. PBL, 2009 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 12. Biofuels When compared to fossil fuels, manufactured liquid biofuels do not necessarily produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions. Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 13. Impacts on water By 2050, climate change will increase extreme drought, especially in the subtropics and low- and mid-latitudes. Increased water stress will impact land areas twice the size of those areas that will experience decreased water stress. Bates et al., 2008 Water scarcity and climate change WATER SCARCITY CLASSES Physical water scarcity Approaching physical water scarcity Economic water scarcity Little or no scarcity No estimation Drier under climate change Wetter under climate change
  • 14. Impacts on crops Global impacts of climate change on yields cannot be estimated due to variation among locations and crop types. But the overall impact on grain is negative—the potential yield loss is about 5 percent for each degree Celsius of global warming. Lobell et al., 2011 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 15. Impacts on livestock Livestock and pastures could become more productive in humid temperate regions as global temperatures rise by 2 degrees Celsius, but arid and semi-arid regions could become less productive. Easterling et al., 2007 Zerihun Sewunet, ILRI
  • 16. Impacts on fisheries The impact of climate change on marine fisheries is expected to differ hugely across the major fishing regions—with some regions experiencing a relative decline in catch and others a relative growth. Cheung et al., 2010 Projected change in catch (metric tonnes per square kilometre) from 2005 to 2055 Increase (> 0.005 to 0.50) Decrease (< –0.50 to –0.005)
  • 17. Impact on forests Climate change is already affecting the diversity and productivity of forests and trees on farms through its impact on growing seasons, pest and disease outbreaks and tree population size and distribution. Locatelli et al., 2010 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 18. Impact on food security Many crop yields are expected to decline due to long-term changes in temperature and rainfall and increased climate variability. The outcome may be higher food prices, along with chronic poverty and undernutrition for farming households already battered by climate extremes such as drought and flood. Beddington et al., 2011; Carter and Barrett, 2006 Olivier Asselin, UNICEF
  • 19. Water adaptation Maintaining a stable water supply for agriculture requires both demandside strategies, such as recycling and conserving water, and supply-side strategies, such as water storage. Thornton et al., 2012 Arne Hoel, World Bank
  • 20. Crop and farming adaptation Farmers must change how and what they grow to adapt to local climate conditions. Depending on the pace of climate change, adaptation could be incremental (e.g. altering planting dates), system-wide (e.g. altering irrigation systems) or transformative (e.g. altering the balance between crops and livestock, or moving out of agriculture altogether). Thornton et al., 2012 Levels of adaptation in relation to benefits from adaptation actions and degree of climate change BENEFIT FROM ADAPTATION Transformational adaptation Different livelihoods Different production areas Different agricultural products and diets Exit from agriculture Systems adaptation Climate-adapted breeds and new crops Diversification of agriculture and livelihoods Greater use of seasonal and multi-year forecasts More reliance on insurance and risk management Incremental adaptation Shifts in cropping calendar Greater efficiency in use of water and nutrients More intensive management of soils and residues Adapted from Rickard and Howden 2012 CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 21. Livestock adaptation Adaptation for pasture-grazing livestock includes changes in the use and maintenance of pastures and in the mix of livestock breeds. Easterling et al., 2007 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 22. Fisheries and aquaculture adaptation Adaptation strategies for fisheries will vary considerably across the globe—from changing locations to shifting the timing and species of catch—depending on the local impacts of climate change. Grafton, 2009; Cochrane et al., 2009 Georgina Smith
  • 23. Forests and landscape adaptation Forest foods play a key role in helping the rural poor cope with seasonal shortages, recurrent climate anomalies and economic downturns. Thornton et al., 2012 Restore degraded watersheds and rangelands Degradation costs livelihood assets and essential watershed functions; restoration can be a win-win strategy for addressing climate change, rural poverty, and water scarcity. Protect natural habitats Incentives to protect natural forests and grasslands include certification, payment for climate services, securing land tenure rights, and community fire control. Farm with perennials Perennial crops, like grasses, palms, and trees, maintain and develop their root system, capture carbon, increase water filtration, and reduce erosion. Enrich soil carbon Agricultural soils can be managed to reduce emissions by minimizing tillage, reducing the use of nitrogen fertilizers, preventing erosion, increasing organic matter content, and adding biochar.
  • 24. Livelihoods and food security adaptation Ensuring food security under climate change will require adaptations that address food availability (production and trade), food access (incomes and rights) and food use (culture and health). Ziervogel and Ericksen, 2010 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 25. Agricultural mitigation potential The mitigation potential of a suite of agricultural practices that reduce emissions associated with farming and increase carbon storage is estimated to be 1,500 to 1,600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year at a carbon price of USD 20 per tCO2e. The mitigation potential through land use change is estimated to be a further 1,550 MtCO2e per year. Smith et al., 2008 Restore degraded lands ~135 MtCO2e/year Grazing land management ~160 MtCO2e/year Restore cultivated soils ~248 MtCO2e/year Setaside, land use change, and agroforestry ~7 MtCO2e/year Livestock management ~127 MtCO2e/year Manure management ~8 MtCO2e/year Rice management Cropland management ~168 MtCO2e/year ~767 MtCO2e/year
  • 26. Reduced deforestation The economic potential of global forestry mitigation options is estimated to be between 1,270 and 4,230 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year in 2030 (at carbon prices up to USD 100 per tonne of CO2e). Achieving about half of this mid-range estimate would cost less than USD 20 per tonne of CO2e. Nabuurs et al., 2007; Candell & Raupach, 2008 Douglas Sheil, CIFOR
  • 27. Soil: carbon sinks Sequestering carbon in the soils of croplands, grazing lands and rangelands offers agriculture’s highest potential source of climate change mitigation. These soils can store between 1,500 and 4,500 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO2e) per year. Smith et al., 2007; FAO, 2011 Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 28. Integrating mitigation and adaptation Integrated climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies ensure food security and reduce agriculture’s ecological footprint. Adaptation is a priority for smallholder farmers, who will pursue mitigation when it brings benefits without increasing cost and risk. Jarvis et al., 2011 FOOD PRODUCTION Potential synergies and trade-offs among food production, mitigation, and adaptation e.g. expansion of agricultural land, increased use of mechanization, fertilizer, and other inputs e.g. improved irrigation infrastructure, weather forecasting e.g. diversification of crop, livestock, a nd fisheries varieties, improve d on-farm and off-farm storage Agricultural practices that benefit food production, adaptation, a nd mitigation. e.g. restoration of degraded land, improvements of soil-macro- and micronutrients e.g. on-farm production and use of biofuels ADAPTATION e.g. use of single high-yielding variety Several caveats apply to this figure: e.g. reforestation, decr eased livestock production, agrofor estry options that have low food benefits MITIGATION 1. Examples are illustrative, not comprehensive; furthermore, the examples will not apply to all countries, farming systems, or agro-ecological zones. 2. The size and overlay of the circles do not represent either relative potential or degree of overlap. 3. The term ―adaptation‖ refers to approaches and capacities within agriculture, and does not include ―getting out of farming,‖ which may be the most effective adaptation to climate change for farmers in particularly vulnerable contexts.
  • 29. Policy instruments 82 percent of surveyed countries prioritize agriculture in their climate change adaptation plans. But only 8 percent include agriculture in their national mitigation plans. Action Aid, 2011; Wollenberg and Nihart, unpublished Neil Palmer, CIAT
  • 30. Financing The world community has pledged nearly USD 30 billion to adaptation financing. By 2020, additional financing via the Green Climate Fund—to be equally distributed between mitigation and adaptation—is slated to reach USD 100 billion. Streck et al., 2012 Existing international public and private climate finance sources for agriculture mitigation International Climate Initiative (Germany) Hatoyama Initiative (Japan) Norway Climate and Forest Initiative Bilateral Environmental Transformatio n Fund (UK) Other bilateral programs Compliance Carbon markets Public Special Climate Change Fund Global Environment Facility UNFCCCmandated funds Least Developed Countries Fund Adaptation Fund (KP) Climate Investment Funds Multilateral Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Other climate funds and programs UN-REDD Other multilateral financing Voluntary Processing Private Investments (Domestic/ FDI) Product

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