Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices

Analysing REDD+: Challenges and Choices Arild Angelsen, CIFOR & Norwegian Univ. of Life SciencesTHINKING beyond the canopy Rio, 18 June 2012

2012 3rd edited volume 20092008 3

3 generations of REDD+ research Focus Key ques+ons Books 1 Designing REDD+ What should REDD+ look like to Moving Ahead and learning from be eﬀec>ve, eﬃcient and Realising REDD+ related experiences equitable (3E)? (Analysing REDD in the past +) 2 The poli>cal How is REDD+ being decided Analysing REDD+ economy and and implemented, and why? implementa+on of (What hinders or enables REDD+ decision and implementa>on of 3E REDD+ policies and projects?) 3 Assessing the impact Does REDD+ work? of REDD+ (How can REDD+ work beNer?) (All) (How should REDD+ outcomes be measured?) THINKING beyond the canopy

The GlobalComparative Study on REDD+ (GCS) §  3 research components + 1 knowledge sharing §  A diverse set of questions and methods §  A large number of partners §  12 countries THINKING beyond the canopy

THINKING beyond the canopy

Structure of the book THINKING beyond the canopy

THINKING beyond the canopy

How to achieve transformational change (TC)?§  Definition of TC a shift in discourse, attitudes, power relations, and deliberate policy and protest action that leads policy formulation and implementation away from business as usual policy approaches that directly or indirectly support deforestation and degradation§  Examples of TC§  changes in economic, regulatory and governance frameworks, including the devolution of rights to local users§  removals of perverse incentives: subsidies and concessions that serve selective economic interests and stimulate DD§  reforms of forest industry policies and regulations that effectively reduce unsustainable extractionREDD+ and TC: a chicken – egg problem THINKING beyond the canopy

4 Is framework REDD+ Interna+onal Policy Arena REDD+ Agenda SePng: incen>ves + ideas REDD+ Na+onal and Subna+onal Ac+on Arena Ins>tu>ons Path Dependency and S>ckiness Informa>on Data, Knowledge Ideas Interests Actors prac>ces Beliefs, Discursive Materialis>c, Individual, Organized Business as Transforma+onal usual ShiSs in incen>ves, discourses and power rela>ons Change Policy Process Output: Policy decision Outcome: Policy impact -‐ broader policies & ins+tu+ons -‐  emissions/-‐removals -‐ Speciﬁc policies and measures -‐  livelihoods -‐ admin and technical capacity -‐  biodiversity -‐ admin and technical capacity THINKING beyond the canopy

How to achieve TC?1. Changing economic incentives§  International financial resources exogenous to the national and subnational systems§  The core REDD+ idea: REDD+ should change the basic benefit–cost equation§  Win-win-lose-lose: •  large actors likely to lose (politically unacceptable to compensate) •  full international compensation of REDD+ costs is unrealistic THINKING beyond the canopy

… how to achieve TC 2. New ideas and information§  A new discourse on the value of standing forests and their role in CC, a potential “game changer”§  Spotlight on old and new issues & need for change of BAU •  Indigenous/local rights, conflicts local – external uses •  Governance & corruption§  Redefine roles between developed and developing countries: poor countries providing services to the world3. New actors and coalitions§  Changing economic incentives and new ideas and discourses can lead to shifts in power relations among key actors§  New actors enter the REDD+ arena and gain power and influence in decision makingIn the end: money speaks louder than words THINKING beyond the canopy

REDD+ and the global economy (Chapt 4)§  Globalisation and market & financial liberalisation •  Increased exposure of forests to global trade and investment •  Aggravate historical trends of DD •  REDD+ implementation more challenging, but also opportunities (influencing market chains)§  Implications for REDD+ •  REDD+ as PES more expensive: § need for other policies •  Look at both demand and supply side§  Detailed studies of 3 regions THINKING beyond the canopy

The evolution of REDD+ (Chapt 3)§  REDD+ - as an idea - has been extremely successful •  A good idea (CC, result-based, significant funding, burden sharing) •  Sufficiently broad/vague to accommodate different interests§  REDD+ has evolved significantly, driven by: •  the absence of a new international climate agreement •  strong business as usual (BAU) interests •  a large number of actors with diverging agendas •  experience and learning THINKING beyond the canopy

REDD+ at 4 key arenas THINKING beyond the canopy

Key trendsObjectives: CO2 Co-benefitsPolicies: PES Broad PAMs Forest policiesScale: National Local/projectsFunding: Rich pay poor REDD+ countriesFunding: Market Public (aid) 16

A dilemma§  REDD+ has attracted many actors with different agendas and ideologies, each trying to get a piece of the perceived REDD+ cake.§  Result: a diversified and less focussed REDD+ agenda, which risks losing the initial characteristics of REDD+ that made it attractive in the first place.§  But: broad coalitions of different interests and actors with different ideologies are needed to get the political support for REDD+ and can also be a basis for transformational changes.

Part 2a: Implementing REDD+: National Level Perspectives§ Politics and Power (Chapt 5)§ Scales of Governance (Chapt 6)§ Financing REDD+ (Chapt 7)§ Who benefits and why (Chapt 8) THINKING beyond the canopy

Political economy framework THINKING beyond the canopy

Politics and power in national REDD+ policy processes§  REDD+ requires 4 preconditions to overcome politico- economic hurdles: •  Relative autonomy of nation states •  National ownership over REDD+ policy processes •  Inclusive REDD+ policy processes •  Coalitions calling for transformational change§  Formulating and implementing national REDD+ strategies most challenging in countries where international actors drive REDD+§  Breaking up institutional and political path dependencies will need participation of state elites and business actors THINKING beyond the canopy

Actors shaping the policy discourse (% with a REDD+ position in media) THINKING beyond the canopy

Multiple levels and multiple challenges for REDD+§  REDD+ a multilevel endeavour •  Must ensure the interconnections of global demands, national and sub-national structures, and local peoples’ needs and aspirations.§  Sound information flows important •  Between local and national levels are essential for accountable MRV and leakage control. •  Across the levels can increase negotiation powers of disadvantaged groups and ensure the 3Es§  REDD+ multilevel governance systems must match incentives and interests with transparent institutions to reduce conflict THINKING beyond the canopy

Multilevel governance mechanisms THINKING beyond the canopy

Financing REDD+ THINKING beyond the canopy

Financing REDD+§  Where are we? •  Short term finance available, yet slow disbursement and scarce investment opportunities •  No adequate and predictable long-term strategy to meet REDD+ financial needs§  Interim phase with no ambitious CC mitigation goals: •  REDD+ finance will be mobilized by the public sector •  Likely to be fragmented and channelled through various agencies •  Thus, need to test financing options that leverage private sector finance and directly address DD§  Options for financing: •  Middle income countries: self finance, engage in results-based agreements with donors and international agencies •  Fragile states rely on ODA-type finances, combining financial support, technical assistance, and policy guidance THINKING beyond the canopy

Who should benefit and why?§  Designing effective benefit sharing mechanisms for REDD+ •  Must first determine what REDD+ seeks to achieve as the objectives affect the design of benefit and cost sharing mechanisms§  Benefits are not only financial •  Few REDD+ projects are providing direct financial transfers •  Thus benefit sharing must tend to a wide range of activities§  The legitimacy of the decision making institutions and processes is critical •  Legal clarity •  Consensus on which institutions have the right to make decisions •  Attention to procedural rights THINKING beyond the canopy

Discourses on who should benefitEffectiveness and efficiency vs equity discourses Equity discourse 1: benefits should go to actors with legal rights Equity discourse 2: benefits should go to low-‐emi0ng forest stewards Equity discourse 3: benefits should go to those incurring costs Equity discourse 4: benefits should go to effec6ve implementers THINKING beyond the canopy

Examples of potential REDD+ beneficiaries and the costs and benefits they may accrue THINKING beyond the canopy

Part 2b: Implementing REDD+ Subnational projects§ Why tenure matters (Chapt 9)§ REDD+ projects combine old and new (Chapt 10)§ Local stakeholder hopes and worries (Chapt 11)§ Implications of landscape location (Chapt 12) THINKING beyond the canopy

Tenure matters in REDD+§  Although unprecedented attention to forest tenure, national action limited§  Project-level action faces substantial obstacles if no national backing§  National institutions often inadequate to address customary rights§  Policy makers ought to address underlying causes of DD and target tenure issues in parallel, though both likely to face strong resistance THINKING beyond the canopy

Forest tenure distribution in 2008 THINKING beyond the canopy

Exclusion rights and practice THINKING beyond the canopy

REDD+ projects as hybrids§  Most projects intend to combine ICDP and PES§  Advantages under policy and market uncertainty: Ø Make early progress on project establishment Ø Fallback if PES does not go ahead§  Yet there are challenges: Ø ICDP has underperformed Ø PES is played down and this might have negative consequences THINKING beyond the canopy

Proponent expectations on impacts THINKING beyond the canopy

Local hopes and worries§  Local forest users in sample understood REDD+ is fundamentally about forest projection; they hoped REDD+ would improve incomes and worried would hurt livelihoods§  Local participants depend on proponents for information about REDD+, and there may be need for independent brokers or advisers§  Key challenges: Ø Communicate clearly to villagers Ø Involve them meaningfully in design and implementation Ø Balance forest protection with welfare concerns THINKING beyond the canopy

Local understanding of REDD+ THINKING beyond the canopy

Hopes & worries concerning REDD + THINKING beyond the canopy

Location of forest carbon projects§  Across countries: •  Countries with a higher biodiversity index and jurisdictions with more protected area§  Brazil and Indonesia: •  Jurisdictions with higher deforestation rates and forest carbon densities§  6 GCS countries: •  Sample villages that are inside project boundaries depend on agriculture, emphasising the challenge of implementing REDD+ without undermining agricultural livelihoods THINKING beyond the canopy

Distribution of REDD+ projects THINKING beyond the canopy

Mean values of factors considered in site selection in municipalities &districts with & without REDD+ projects THINKING beyond the canopy

L. Verchot

Chapter 13 Performance indicators and REDD+ implementation §  REDD+ and payments may be made based on performance, which implies that there must be assessments of the results of REDD+ programmes. §  In the readiness phase support will go to policy reforms, rather than proven emissions reductions. Good performance indicators are critical in this and all three REDD+ phases. §  Valuable lessons on governance indicators can be learned from the aid sector: avoid seeking the perfect indicator and use expert judgment extensively.

Indicators§  Challenges: •  Monitor results •  Must be credible to stakeholders •  Appropriate for the objectives of the each REDD+ implementation phase.§  Rationale: •  Management: keep efforts on track •  Evaluation: assess success of actions§  Lessons from ODA experience: •  Timing of assessment (3-5 y) vs. timing of outcomes & impacts (10-15 y) •  Attribution problems •  Reliability of information

PHASE 3 PHASE 1 PHASE 2 RESULTS-‐BASED READINESS POLICY MEASURES ACTION Implementa+on Input indicators metrics •  Readiness funds disbursed •  Consulta>ons done Output indicators •  Pilot projects •  R-‐PP approved Performance Output indicators Outcome indicators metrics •  Strategies, policies • Gross deforesta>on and laws adopted • Increased share of •  Ins>tu>ons (MRV restored na>ve etc.) in place forest • Cover Impact indicators • Quan>ﬁed changes in carbon emissions Input Output Outcome Impact Results chain

Chapter 14 Baselines and monitoring in local REDD+ projects §  Robust standards and methods have been developed to estimate emissions from deforestation at the project level. §  Because baseline and monitoring methodologies were adopted only recently, many pilot projects do not comply. §  The next generation of projects should identify or develop suitable methodologies before investing in the development of their baselines and MRV systems.

IPCC has developed measurement methods that serve as the basis for several standards§  VCS •  VM0004 – Avoid planned LUC •  VM0006 –Mosaic D&D •  VM0007 – REDD •  VM0009 –Avoided mosaic deforestation •  VM0015 – Avoided unplanned deforestation§  ACR REDD framework module •  Planned deforestation •  Unplanned deforestation •  Extraction of fuelwood

MRV survey of 17 demonstration projects show most do not meet requirements of VCS or ACR§  Prior LU often difficult to verify in spatially explicit way§  Projects limit monitoring to the project area; no reference region or leakage belt§  9 of 17 project developers modeled historical rate of deforestation in the project area; three are in the process§  3 of 17 projects use spatial models to project the location of future deforestation; the other 14 rely on expert knowledge§  13 project have RS images for more than three points in 10 year period§  7 of 17 projects have high resolution data (<10m); all have medium resolution data (10–60m).

Chapter 15 EFs: Converting land use change to CO2 estimates§  Lack of data limits converting area estimates of DD to carbon stock changes in most tropical countries.§  Institutional capacity to conduct inventories and measurements for improving GHG inventories in AFOLU has been slow in non-Annex I.§  Constraints can be overcome with investments in productive partnerships between technical services in REDD+ countries, intergovernmental agencies and ARIs during the readiness phase.

Two methods are available for estimating EFs C uptake via growth Gain – loss method Disturbance C Stock Harvest Stock difference method C stock at C stock at >me 1 >me 2

Chapter 16 A stepwise framework for developing REDD+ RELs§  Developing RELs is constrained by lack of quality data.§  Data availability and quality should determine the methods for RELs. Consideration of drivers of DD will be important for adjusting RELs to national circumstances.§  A stepwise approach to developing RELs will facilitate broad participation, early startup and the motivation for improvements over time, alongside efforts to enhance measurement and monitoring capacities.

Criteria for comparing country circumstances and strategies

Expand on the Stepwise approach and link it to the financial incentive baseline Historical Na+onal deforesta>on circumstances and forest relevant for degrada>on BAU (e.g., Na+onal Other drivers) circumstances considera+ons relevant for (e.g., eﬃcient FIB (e.g., use of funds & BAU baseline capabili>es) uncertainty) Financial incen+ve benchmark (FIB) (compensa>on benchmark) baseline

REDD+ safeguards in national policyChapter 17 discourse and pilot projects§  REDD+ policy makers, project personnel and investors value REDD+ safeguards.§  To gain national-level buy-in for REDD+ safeguards, national sovereignty must be recognised and competing safeguard policies should be harmonised.§  The REDD+ safeguards dialogue needs to move towards action. This includes introducing guidelines, low-cost strategies and capacity building to support the interpretation.

Some key findings§  REDD+ safeguards are a set of norms or institutions that guide expectations surrounding social and environmental outcomes of REDD.§  Several international and nonprofit organisations have articulated safeguard standards for REDD+ policies at the national level (e.g. FCPF)§  Countries have little capacity to monitor social and biodiversity impacts.§  There is uneven compliance with safeguards in demonstration projects

The book’s 5 key messages§  As an idea, REDD+ is a success story: •  Significant result-based funding to address an urgent need for climate change mitigation •  Sufficiently broad to serve as a canopy, under which a wide range of actors can grow their own trees§  REDD+ faces huge challenges: •  Powerful political and economic interests •  Coordination across various government levels and agencies; •  Benefits to balance effectiveness and equity •  Tenure insecurity and safeguards must be genuinely addressed •  Transparent institutions, reliable carbon monitoring and realistic reference levels to build result-based systems THINKING beyond the canopy

… key messages§  REDD+ requires - and can catalyse - Trans Change •  New economic incentives, New information and discourses, New actors & New policy coalitions; all have the potential to move domestic policies away from the BAU trajectory.§  REDD+ projects are hybrids in high deforestation areas: •  Mix the enforcement of regulations and support to alternative livelihoods (ICDP) with result-based incentives (PES). •  Projects located in high deforestation and high forest carbon areas, yielding high additionality if they succeed.§  ‘No regret’ policy options exist: •  Build political support and coalitions for change. •  Invest in adequate information systems. •  Implement policies desirable regardless of CC objectives. THINKING beyond the canopy

Thanks We acknowledge the support from: NORAD and the Ministry of Environment of Norway, AusAID (Australia), European Commission, Dept. of Energy and Climate Change & Dept. for Int. Dev. (UK), FinAid (Finland), Fonds Français pour lEnvironnement Mondial (France) & all research partners and individuals that have contributed to the GCS research

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Analysing REDD+: Challenges and choices

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