Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability, and how we can support the forests potential for coping with such

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Presentation by Erik D. Kjær, University of Copenhagen
Boreal and temperate forest, Forest Day 3
Sunday, 13 December 2009
Copenhagen, Denmark

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Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability, and how we can support the forests potential for coping with such

  1. 1. Adaptive potentials: examples of increased vulnerability, and how we can support the forests potential for coping with such => How to prepare for the future? Picea abies CSO, Silkeborg Erik D. Kjær Danish Centre for Forest, Landscape and Planning, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen
  2. 2. Native species still fit? Some European examples
  3. 3. Picea abies http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
  4. 4. Quercus robur and Q. petraea http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
  5. 5. Betula pendula and Betula pubescens http://linnaeus.nrm.se/flora/welcome.html
  6. 6. Pinus sylvestris Danish origin Abisco origin
  7. 7. Health 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 Landrace 2.9 Landrace Landrace Landrace Landrace Landrace Health Baltic Scotland Danish field trial, NW Jutland. Source: Kjær og Barner 1998 Scotland Letland Oscarhamn, S Sæverås, N
  8. 8. Hypothesis: Forest tree species accommodate large climatic variation by local adaptation rather than simple phenotypic plasticity
  9. 9. Climatic extremes – not only average temperature and rain Photo: Jørgensen, 1999 Species trial after the storm in 3-12. 1999
  10. 10. New pests and diseases Competition with new species An example
  11. 11. Ash dieback Photos: Iben Thomsen
  12. 12. Genetic variation is present! 100 100% = All dead! 90 80 ---- 70 Crown damage (%) 60 --- 50 40 -- 30 - 20 10 + ++ 0 2007 1 2008 2 2009 3 Development 2007-2009, 40 clones, 25 replications, established 1998
  13. 13. Genetic variation is present!
  14. 14. We need to support adaptation! What and how? Darwin, Wallace and the Red Queen...
  15. 15. Darwin-Wallace: ’survival of the fittest based on natural selection’ ’Species evolve to fit specific habitats though natural selection according to their fitness’ ’Selection and isolation’
  16. 16. The Red Queen Theory Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain their evoluationary relevance....
  17. 17. The Red Queen Theory
  18. 18. The Red Queen Theory
  19. 19. The Red Queen Theory ’It takes all the running you can do just to stay in the same place’ Species must continuously evolve adapt to maintain their evolutionary relevance....
  20. 20. What we have learned so-far on the trees ability to ’run fast’ • Genetic patterns of differentiation are pronounced • Potential for adaption seem large if management are based on sound genetic principles • Many aspects are difficult to predict – especially new pests and pathogens
  21. 21. Support continued adaptation- How? • Effective natural selection – Level of genetic diversity, Generation intervals, population sizes, Ratio: regeneration/Mature trees • Gene flow and migration– Seed and pollen at the landscape level, movement and testing of germplasm (genetic pockets) Researchers: we need to understand adaptation and the role of genetic diversity Managers: we need to protect, support en encourage genetic processes Policy makers: we need to apply a dynamic view of species and genetic origins
  22. 22. Acknowledgements

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