The Implications of Climate Change on Mesoamerican Agriculture and Small-farmers Coffee Livelihoods Tropentag 7th of October, Hamburg, Germany Peter Laderach (CIAT) [email_address] Peter Laderach, Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Anton Eitzinger, Oriana Ovalle

CONTENT Why Coffee The facts about climate change Methodology Results Conclusions

Why Coffee

The facts about climate change

Methodology

Results

Conclusions

WHY COFFEE One of the most important crop in terms of national agricultural GDP in countries of the tropics Millions of farmers in the tropics depend directly or indirectly on coffee (production, processing, etc) Coffee systems (Agro-forestry) provide goods and services to farmers and the society Demand for coffee in consumer countries

One of the most important crop in terms of national agricultural GDP in countries of the tropics

Millions of farmers in the tropics depend directly or indirectly on coffee (production, processing, etc)

Coffee systems (Agro-forestry) provide goods and services to farmers and the society

Demand for coffee in consumer countries

THE FACTS

METHODOLOGY WorldClim (Hijmans et al, 2005) Climate (Current)

METHODOLOGY WorldClim (Hijmans et al, 2005) Climate (Current)

METHODOLOGY “ Global climate models” (GCMs) based on atmospheric science, chemistry, physics and biology Runs from the past (to calibrate) and into the future Uses different gas emissions scenarios Climate (Future)

“ Global climate models” (GCMs) based on atmospheric science, chemistry, physics and biology

Runs from the past (to calibrate) and into the future

Uses different gas emissions scenarios

METHODOLOGY Climate (Future)

METHODOLOGY Variables

METHODOLOGY Current Climate 19 bioclimatic variables (WorldClim) Climate Change Downscaling: Spline interpolation (same as used in WorldClim) Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables Future Climate Current Climate + Change = Future Climate

Current Climate

19 bioclimatic variables (WorldClim)

Climate Change

Downscaling: Spline interpolation (same as used in WorldClim)

Generation of 19 bioclimatic variables

Future Climate

Current Climate + Change = Future Climate

METHODOLOGY Crop Prediction Models MAXENT (Phillips et al. 2006) ECOCROP (Hijmans et al. 2005)

RESULTS

RESULTS

RESULTS

RESULTS Source: FAOSTATS Area Harvested (Ha) 219584 Mangifera indica L. Mango 15 9175222 Zea mays L. s. mays Maize 14 16756 Lactuca sativa var. capitata L. Lettuce 13 --- Andropogon gayanus Kunth Gamba 12 2119650 Phaseolus vulgaris L. Beans, dry 11 23001 Brassica oleraceae var. Botrytis Cabbages and other brassicas 10 59574 Allium cepa L. v cepa Onions, dry 9 1287388 Saccharum officinarum L. Sugarcane 8 82592 Theobroma cacao L. Cocoa beans 7 --- Brachiaria mutica Stapf. Brachiaria 6 207175 Musa acuminata Colla. Bananas 5 321764 Oriza sativa L. s. japonica Rice paddy 4 113414 Gossypium hirsutum L. Cotton, seed 3 19065 Agave sisalana americana Agaves Otras 2 189804 Elaeis guineensis Jacq. Oil palm 1 Scientific name Crops N Area Harvested (Ha) Scientific name Crops N 83054 Arachis hypogaea L. Maní con cáscara 16 422754 citrus Sinensis (L.) Osbeck Oranges 17 199595 Cocos nucifera L. Coconuts 18 90850 Solanum tuberosum L. Batata 19 26528 Carica papaya L. Papaya 20 66614 Ananas comosus Pineapples 21 57872 Musa balbisiana Colla Platains 22 --- Brassica oleraceae L.v capi. Repollo 23 104700 Sesamum indicum L. Sesame seed 24 78726 Glycine max Soybean 25 2026824 Sorghum bicolor L. Moench Sorghum 26 24713 Nicotiana tabacum L. Tabacco 27 130812 Lycopersicon esculentum M. Tomatoes 28 38322 Manihot sculenta Crantz. Cassava 29 17073 Daucus carota L. Carrot 30

RESULTS Crop prediction models

RESULTS

RESULTS

RESULTS

CONCLUSIONS There will be areas that don’t produce coffee any more in the future There will be areas where in the future coffee can be produced under adapted agronomic management There will be areas were today no coffee grows but which will be suitable in the future The vulnerability of smallholder farmers to coffee and crop suitability decrease is very site-specific Site specific adaptation strategies are needed

There will be areas that don’t produce coffee any more in the future

There will be areas where in the future coffee can be produced under adapted agronomic management

There will be areas were today no coffee grows but which will be suitable in the future

The vulnerability of smallholder farmers to coffee and crop suitability decrease is very site-specific

Site specific adaptation strategies are needed

¡Muchas gracias! Peter Laderach (CIAT) [email_address]