On October 23rd, 2014, we updated our
By continuing to use LinkedIn’s SlideShare service, you agree to the revised terms, so please take a few minutes to review them.
The Global Futures Project And Virtual Crop Modeling http://www.yannarthusbertrand2.org/ Bernardo Creamer CIAT, May 18, 2011
The Challenges Facing Agriculture Price volatility and food scarcity Unprecedented demands on the world’s agricultural systems Rising incomes in the developing countries Unsustainable natural resource degradation Climate change Enhancing the productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems Degradation of agricultural lands Limited space Page 2
Vulnerability WB: Risk of hungerfor 60 M people
Search for Solutions
Existence of tecnology?
Howmuch do weknow (uncertainty)?
Whatstrategies are better?
Global Futures: Decision Analysis Tool Improve Agricultural productivity and Environmental sustainability in developing countries. Focused on Evaluating promising technologies, Investments, and Policy reforms
Decision Analisis Processes Crop Modeling Geographic information Changes in yields Future scenarios Economic analysis Virtual crop Solutions
IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade” Representation of a global competitive agricultural market for water, crops and livestock Global 115 countries 281 food production units 32 agricultural commodities Economic evaluation:IMPACT model
32 IMPACT Commodities (SPAM) Cereals Wheat, Rice, Maize, Other Coarse Grains + Millet, Sorghum Roots & Tubers Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes & Yams, Cassava & Other Roots and Tubers Dryland legumes Chickpea, Pigeonpea, Groundnut Livestock products Beef, Pork, Sheep & Goat, Poultry, Eggs, Milk Fish Eight capture and aquaculture fish commodities plus fish meals and fish oils High-Value Vegetables, (Sub)-Tropical Fruits, Temperate Fruits, Sugar Cane, Sugar Beets and Sweeteners Other Soybeans, Meals, Oils Non-food Cotton, Biofuel products (ethanol, biodiesel)
Global Economic Regions (115)
Global Basins (126)
Global Food Production Units (281 FPUs) Higher river basin spatial resolution planned for better water availability modeling
Page 16 Policy drivers Domestic Biofuel Prodn Other Demand Demand Socioeconomic Drivers Feed Food Trade Equilibrium Balance Agric. Imports/ exports Trade policy child malnutrition Price Calorie Availability Irrigation investments Area Female education Clean water access Supply Rural Roads Yield [investments] Ag R&D investments Climate change Environmental driver Key elements of IMPACT model Water usage Water availability drivers
Virtual Crop Crop Model Genetic Coefficients Plant Gene
Needforvalidation Challenge: Findfuturescenarios and sitestoconducttrials