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Presentation globalfuturesvcm Presentation Transcript

  • 1. The Global Futures Project
    And
    Virtual Crop Modeling
    http://www.yannarthusbertrand2.org/
    Bernardo Creamer
    CIAT, May 18, 2011
  • 2. The Challenges Facing Agriculture
    Price volatility and food scarcity
    Unprecedented demands on the world’s agricultural systems
    Rising incomes in the developing countries
    Unsustainable natural resource degradation
    Climate change
    Enhancing the productivity and sustainability of agricultural systems
    Degradation of agricultural lands
    Limited space
    Page 2
  • 3. Hunger
  • 4. Hunger
    Mileniumgoalsachievement (FAO)
  • 5. Challenge
    Poverty
    Hunger
    Vulnerability
    Solutions
  • 6. Vulnerability
    WB: Risk of hungerfor 60 M people
  • 7. Search for Solutions
    • Agriculturalproductionsituation
    • 8. Actual
    • 9. Predicted
    • 10. Existence of tecnology?
    • 11. Howmuch do weknow (uncertainty)?
    • 12. Can wedevelopmitigatingtechnologies?
    • 13. Whatstrategies are better?
    • 14. Priorities
    • 15. Meassuringresults
  • Global Futures: Decision Analysis Tool
    Improve
    Agricultural productivity and
    Environmental sustainability
    in developing countries.
    Focused on
    Evaluating promising technologies,
    Investments, and
    Policy reforms
  • 16. Decision Analisis Processes
    Crop Modeling
    Geographic information
    Changes in yields
    Future scenarios
    Economic analysis
    Virtual crop
    Solutions
  • 17. Decision Analysis
  • 18. IMPACT – “International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade”
    Representation of a global competitive agricultural market for water, crops and livestock
    Global
    115 countries
    281 food production units
    32 agricultural commodities
    Economic evaluation:IMPACT model
  • 19. 32 IMPACT Commodities (SPAM)
    Cereals
    Wheat, Rice, Maize, Other Coarse Grains + Millet, Sorghum
    Roots & Tubers
    Potatoes, Sweet Potatoes & Yams, Cassava & Other Roots and Tubers
    Dryland legumes
    Chickpea, Pigeonpea, Groundnut
    Livestock products
    Beef, Pork, Sheep & Goat, Poultry, Eggs, Milk
    Fish
    Eight capture and aquaculture fish commodities plus fish meals and fish oils
    High-Value
    Vegetables, (Sub)-Tropical Fruits, Temperate Fruits, Sugar Cane, Sugar Beets and Sweeteners
    Other
    Soybeans, Meals, Oils
    Non-food
    Cotton, Biofuel products (ethanol, biodiesel)
  • 20. Global Economic Regions (115)
  • 21. Global Basins (126)
  • 22. Global Food Production Units (281 FPUs)
    Higher river basin spatial resolution planned for better water availability modeling
  • 23. Page 16
    Policy drivers
    Domestic Biofuel Prodn
    Other Demand
    Demand
    Socioeconomic
    Drivers
    Feed
    Food
    Trade Equilibrium Balance
    Agric.
    Imports/
    exports
    Trade
    policy
    child
    malnutrition
    Price
    Calorie Availability
    Irrigation investments
    Area
    Female education
    Clean water access
    Supply
    Rural Roads
    Yield
    [investments]
    Ag R&D investments
    Climate change
    Environmental driver
    Key elements of IMPACT model
    Water usage
    Water availability drivers
  • 24. Virtual Crop
    Crop Model
    Genetic Coefficients
    Plant Gene
  • 25. Virtual Crop
  • 26. Needforvalidation
    Challenge:
    Findfuturescenarios and sitestoconducttrials