Newby socio economic and agro-development trends and drivers for asia
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Newby socio economic and agro-development trends and drivers for asia

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  • 1. Socio-economic and agrodevelopment trends and drivers for Asia
  • 2. INTERVENTIONS AGRARIAN SYSTEM CROPS LIVESTOCK FOREST OFF-FARM MARKETS SHOCKS WATER SOCIAL RELATIONS FARM SYSTEM ORGANISATIONS TRENDS LAND VILLAGE SYSTEM TRAJECTORIES
  • 3. Levels of drivers 1. Global drivers of change 2. Country specific drivers of change – Infrastructure and policies, 3. Local drivers of change
  • 4. Global drivers • Rising energy costs • World trade and globalisation – Increased distance food travels – What does WTO mean for Lao • World prices • Biotec • Climate change
  • 5. Population growth and demography • • • • Total Urban:rural Aging work force in rural areas Currently low dependency ratio is some countries like Laos….that is going to change
  • 6. Consumption • • • • • Change in incomes Substitution between foods Food quality Food safety Ethical, environmental issues
  • 7. Labour • • • • Availability of labour Cost of labour Mechanisation Diversified rural livelihoods
  • 8. Rising input costs • Fertiliser – Linked to energy (reductions from highs on the last decade) • Irrigation
  • 9. Access to land • • • • Urbanisation Consolidation Concessions Enclosure of the commons • Process of bringing smallholders back into systems in former colonials • Land grabs in new areas
  • 10. Access to finance
  • 11. Biofuels • Crops now linked to energy markets • Crops linked to developments in other crop/tree markets – Already were linked in the starch market – Now linked in biofuel sector
  • 12. National food security • Main crops • Secondary crops not given preference – Inefficiencies • What happens if China gives up on selfsufficiency objectives
  • 13. Price controls vs support for farmers • Concern over rising prices – Price controls along the value chain • Thailand rice support
  • 14. Infrastructure • Access to remote areas – Market access – Changing commodities (from subsistence to commercialisation – Differential impacts • Potential for a backwash effect