Managua Targeting
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Managua Targeting

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Impact Pathways and Planning Meeting - Dual Purpose Cattle Value Chain

Impact Pathways and Planning Meeting - Dual Purpose Cattle Value Chain

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Managua Targeting Managua Targeting Presentation Transcript

  • Targeting sustainable interventions An Notenbaert, Tim Robinson, Mark Van Wijk Impact Pathways and Planning Meeting - Dual Purpose Cattle Value Chain Managua, 5-9 August
  • Targeting Outputs Sustainable interventions • Identified & targeted • In promising VCs (and sites) + tools and approaches Environmental impact Global context Prioritisation of interventions . Economically, socially & environmentally
  • Providing a global context - For action in the VCs - For identifying promising VCs What we’re aiming for - with CCAFS/CRP2: - projections of demand, supply, environmental indicators - Global dialogue around ASF nutrition security - Prioritisation framework View slide
  • Prioritization of interventions A few approaches we’d like to test: - Extrapolate (contact: Tim Robinson) - Optimisation modeling (contact: Mark Van Wijk) - System Dynamic Modeling (lead by VCD theme) Slow track: systems analysis of detailed household data; systems optimization Fast track: PRA approaches; ex-ante analysis View slide
  • Ex-ante tool for ranking (policy) alternatives • Designed for policy interventions (PPLPI) but equally applicable to technical and systems interventions • Simple PC-based programme • Promotes a participatory approach • Easy to use, well documented • User Guide • Reference Manual • Not data-intensive • Simple graphic output • Can evaluate combinations of interventions • Can be used at a range of levels 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • EXTRAPOLATE1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • EXTRAPOLATE: Current situation1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • EXTRAPOLATE: Policy changes1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • EXTRAPOLATE1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • Dairy development policy: Uganda • Promote genetic improvement • Strengthen delivery of veterinary services • Provide appropriate extension services • Improved market infrastructure and information • Ensure quality control along the chain • Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market • Promote efficiency in the input supply system • Increased access to credit facilities Proposed components of policy: 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • EXTRAPOLATE – analysis tools Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists Small processors & traders Poor consumers Wealthy producers/processors/consumers 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • Promote genetic improvement Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • Enforce quality control Small-medium producers Pastoralists and agro-pastoralists 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • Optimal combination of policies1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • Key elements of a pro-poor policy • Promote genetic improvement • Strengthen delivery of veterinary services • Provide appropriate extension services • Improved market infrastructure and information • Ensure quality control along the chain • Increase local consumption to build a strong domestic market • Promote efficiency in the input supply system • Increased access to credit facilities 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • Key elements of a pro-poor policy • This does NOT mean that genetic improvement and standards/regulation should be discouraged or dropped from the policy document • Rather that when these broad policy outcomes are disaggregated into their component parts (laws, strategies, institutions etc.) care needs to be taken to ensure that the poorer producers are not disadvantaged, and that their needs are also addressed 1. EXTRAPOLATE
  • 2. OPTIMISATION • Optimization of effect sizes through LP is a standard approach to do that • Trade offs between different indicators can be quantified • Drawbacks: – All effect sizes need to be quantified accurately – LP results in single solutions
  • • Therefore: take into account UNCERTAINTY of effects of interventions on system performance indicators • By sampling these uncertainty intervals you get – packages of interventions, rather than single optimal solutions – Insight in the robustness of the intervention you are proposing – Insight in key factors that need more accurate quantification 2. OPTIMISATION
  • Construct effect size table: based on literature values and expert knowledge Interventions Livestock Production (short term) Labour hours costs GHG emissions Short term Investment costs … 1 + 10% (stdev 8) +20% (stdev 15) +10% (stdev 5) +30% (stdev 10) 2 + 20% (stdev 5) +40% (stdev 15) +20% (stdev 7) +50% (stdev 20) … 3 … … … … … 4 … … … … … … … … … … …
  • Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Model Intervention 1 Intervention 1 Intervention 2
  • Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Indicator 2 Indicator 1 Indicator 3 Model Intervention 2 Intervention 1 Intervention 2 And this you do very often (e.g. 1000s of times) to know the probability of choosing certain interventions 1. under which conditions; 2. with which objectives.
  • Model Climate Prices Farm characteristics Model parameters Uncertainty / Variation in Probabilities of decisions Probabilities of indicator outcomes Trade offs between indicators Thereby it is a simple and rough way of prioritizing
  • Prioritization of interventions All these approaches : - Based on constraints analysis and best-bet identification in VCs - Need for good data and knowledge from the VCs Short term: identify resource person Longer term: joint proposal development!
  • Environmental impact assessment Working on a framework for ex-ante environmental impact assessment of livestock and fish value chains: - Pilot study in Dairy VC in East-Africa (BMGF-funded) - Key dimensions: water, GHG, nutrients Need for bigger proposal development! …Flagship in phase 2
  • CGIAR is a global partnership that unites organizations engaged in research for a food secure future. The CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish aims to increase the productivity of small-scale livestock and fish systems in sustainable ways, making meat, milk and fish more available and affordable across the developing world. CGIAR Research Program on Livestock and Fish livestockfish.cgiar.org