Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×

Introducing the official SlideShare app

Stunning, full-screen experience for iPhone and Android

Text the download link to your phone

Standard text messaging rates apply

Latin america worlds_future_rice_bowl

438
views

Published on


0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
438
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Latin America: The World’s Future Rice Bowl? i l? R. S. R S Zeigler Director GeneralInternational Rice Research Institute
  • 2. What is rice?• Perhaps the oldest p domesticated crop – Tremendously diverse• More than just food – Though it is the primary staple for billions (~ 50% of world, > 70% of poor)• And it grows under monsoon conditions where no other major crops can grow
  • 3. Global Ri A Gl b l Rice Area and Production d P d ti Production in metric tons per cell1,0001 000 2,500 2 500 5,000 5 000 10,000 10 000 25,000 25 000 50,000 50 000 Cells are approximately 100 x 100 hectares at the equator Source: You, Wood-Sichra and Wood, 2009
  • 4. INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTE Los Baños, Philippines Mission:Reduce poverty and hR d t d hungerImprove the health of ricefarmers and consumersf dEnsure environmentalsustainabilityThrough researchpartnerships Home of the Green Revolution Established 1960 www.irri.org
  • 5. Rice is typically grown by small family farm enterprises (<2 ha) Myanmar
  • 6. If we want to do something about poverty, it is clear that we must invest in rice Rice Consumption Poverty Annual consumption per capita  Each dot represents 250,000 people <25kg   25‐50    50‐75    75‐100  >100kg living on less than $1.25 a day, 2005 90% of the world’s rice is produced and consumed in Asia Over 70% of the world’s poor are in Asia
  • 7. The Green Revolution: A new plant architecture for 2 – 4 yield hit t f 4x i ld• 1960 1960s – yields ~1.5 t/ha – widespread famines predicted•T d Today – yields > 4 t/ha Semi dwarf S i-d f Traditional T diti l – economic growth
  • 8. Peter Jennings: Creator of the foundation of modern rice varieties f d ti f d i i tiBrought these to Latin America…revolutionized rice production
  • 9. 6.0 60 Diversification Annual rate of yield increase: Reduced tillage Water-saving irrigation 52.4 kg grain/ha Mechanized tillage SSNM Direct seeding 5.0 (R2=0.982) Herbicides Post-harvest losses Community IPM IPM Ecosystem servicesWorld rice yie (t/ha) More N & P fertilizer CC adaptation/mitigation Decline in manure and green manure 4.0 Mechanized harvest Irrigation eld 2-3 crops/year Hybrids N f tili fertilizer Yield Yi ld potential (?) i l Pesticides Precision breeding: 3.0 Semi-dwarf, - abiotic stresses - biotic stresses short duration MV Abiotic stresses - adaptation to RCT Wide hybridization - biofortification New Plant Type yp Grain quality quality, d - grain quality Isogenic lines/MAS 2.0 Hybrid rice Floodprone rice Gene pyramiding Yield potential Resistance to Rainfed rice Dwarfism insects & diseases Short duration Adverse soil tolerance 1.0 10 Grain dormancy IR8 IR26 IR36 IR64 IR72 PSBRc18 NSIC Rc158 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 10. Green Revolution Slows Global Rice Yield (1961 2010) (1961-2010)Average yield (t ha-1) Average yearly increase over previous 10 years (kg ha-1) 5.0 200 4.0 160 3.0 120 2.0 80 1.0 40 0.0 0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 Year © WPQ
  • 11. Global rice production increases Where Will the World’s Rice needed toCome From? meet demand by 2035Million tons milled rice600 Additional rice needed:550 114 million tons by 2035500450400 2010 global rice production350300 93 01 03 05 13 23 25 33 91 95 97 99 07 09 11 15 17 19 21 27 29 31 351920202020202020191919192020202020202020202020 Asia Africa Americas Rest of world
  • 12. Where Will the World’s Rice Come From? F ?• Ideally from increasing productivity on y gp y existing rice lands, mostly in Asia• BUT, in Asia: – Land is moving out of rice – Labor is moving out of rice – Water is moving out of rice• Major changes in production practices and increases in efficiency Just to stay y y where we are• Significant new rice lands may be needed d d
  • 13. To Make Matters Worse: Climate ChangeEffects on Rice Production Hit Asia Hard
  • 14. Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Burma (May 08) Irrawaddy Delta Sea – Level Rise >60% of Global Increase in Rice Before Nargis Production in the last 30 years came from Delta countries of Asia After Nargis
  • 15. Where Will This Rice Come From? Crop C op Land in Use and Total Suitable Land S itableMajority of suitable land unavailable or locked up in other uses 45%: forest 12%: Protected area 3%: human settlementsThe remaining land may have problems such as low soil fertility,high soil toxicity, etc. Source: World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030, FAO http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y3557E/y3557e08.htm# TopofPage
  • 16. Rice ecosystems in Each dot represents Latin America 5,000 hectares of rice Irrigated fields Rainfed, flooded fields Rainfed, non flooded fields < 5% of global rice production Source: Hijmans, 2008
  • 17. 2010 2000 1990 1980 Trends in rice area: 1980 - 2010 Over the last 30 years the rice area in Brazil has reduced from 6.1m t 2 9 hectares, 6 1 to 2.9m h t while in the rest of LAC the rice area has increased from 1.9m to 2.8m hectares t 28 h tRice area in hectares Harvested area (000 ha) 1980-2010 < 50,000 9,000 Brazil Rest of Latin America 8,000 50,000 100,000 50 000 – 100 000 7,000 7 000 100,000 – 200,000 6,000 5,000 200,000 – 500,000 4,000 3,000 > 500 000 500,000 2,000 1,000 -Source: USDA, 2010 1980 1990 2000 2010
  • 18. LAC Rice Consumption vs Population (1990=100) P l ti (1990 100)Index of Population and Consumption (1990=100)160140120 Rising significance of Rice in100 LAC Food Basket 80 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Consumption Population
  • 19. Can LAC Become the Next Rice Bowl?• Bi Biggest advantage: t d t – Endowed with plenty of land and water.• Bottleneck – Global market is small and unstable. – As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in the export market. • Although subsidies in many rice growing countries make it even look worse – Inadequate infrastructure• What Needs to Happen? – LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tonnes/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.) – A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.
  • 20. From Major LAC Rice – Potential Countries Requires… C t i R i• Long term policy commitment to permanent expansion of rice sector• Strategic vision for the development of g p potential rice producing lands – Strategic assessments of relative investments in new irrigated and savanna/cerrado lands• Long term commitment to research for sustainable growth in the rice sector t i bl th i th i t – A science – based second Green Revolution• Stable policies for long term competitiveness
  • 21. From the Global Community…• Even handed subsidies and incentive policies• Mechanism to deal with trade disruptions and protectionist practices• Access to real – time information on global production and trade• A rice futures market and exchange?
  • 22. Science – Based New Green e o ut o Revolution?• Tap the revolutions in genetics, molecular biology and plant physiology• Link soils biology and chemistry to better understand and manipulate sustainable nutrient supply ti t l• Exploit the explosion of computation capacity and remote sensing to model systems and link process at scales from the cellular through ecosystems and regions• Proactively link the political and social dimensions of agriculture to technology p development
  • 23. “The majority view, contending that moreproductive varieties were needed, led tomassive investment during the past 25 i i t t d i th tyears in biotechnology and genetics andunder-investment in crop management ” management. Rice Today, April-June 2007
  • 24. What happened after the Green Revolution of the 1970s? My bet where yields would be With no new varietiesAfter a doubling of yields, no major gains since the early 1980s HOWEVER, that does not mean that advances were not made: Grain quality, growth duration, disease and insect resistance… E. Pulver
  • 25. Latin American Fund for Irrigated Rice (FLAR)South South platfo mSo th – So th platform that seeks synergy in rice R & E s ne g iceEstablished in 1995
  • 26. Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil 9032 Farms 1.1 million haFRONTEIRA  OESTE 1.084 Farm 303.920 ha DEPRESSÃO  DEPRESSÃO PLANÍCIE  PLANÍCIE CENTRAL COSTEIRA  INTERNA 3.375 Farm 158.445 ha 158 445 ha 1.474 Farm CAMPANHA 129.155ha PLANÍCIE  COSTEIRA  COSTEIRA 1.127 Farm EXTERNA 166.060 ha 1.371 Farm ZONA  141.206 ha SUL 601 Farm 177.588 ha
  • 27. Rio Grande do Sul 2000 statusDate of planting – 50% in Dec.Plant population – 150 – 200 kg seed/haPest/Disease 95% insecticide / herbicide 2 applications of insecticides Use of furadan widespread, environmental risk 3 applications of fungicides, preventative<100 kg N/ha, 100% in water, AE 15 kg grain/kg N g gg gWater management – 50% after 30 daysAverage yield = 5.2 t/haYield growth 25 kg/ha/yr = 40 years for 1 t/ha
  • 28. Precision Management Practices in Rio Grande do Sul1. Plant early to maximize yield potential – Choose right variety; land preparation after harvest2. Reduce seed rate to 70-80 kg/ha3. Preventive pest management – Seed coating (insecticide fungicide); fungicide (PI-F) (insecticide, (PI F)4. Preventive and early weed control: – Pure seed; Clearfield varieties, crop rotation – Herbicide at V3-V45. Balanced nutrition with high NUE – Basal NPK placed with seed (2” x 2”) – High N dose at V3-V4 on dry soil (pre-flood) – Topdress N at PI (airplane)6. Irrigate early – Irrigate at V3-V4 and keep flooded Harvest and recycle water
  • 29. 20092T/ha = 80 yrs!
  • 30. Average cost of production g p 33,48 33,00 Custo unitário (R$/saco 50kg)35,00 30,91 - 21,8% 21 8%30,00 26,64 26,19 24,1225,0020,00 ,15,00 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 Instituto Rio Grandense do Arroz
  • 31. Technically Possible for Latin America to be Competitive A i t b C titi• Technology is already present to raise yields and reduce costs• New science is available that will permit p further increases in yield potential and actual yield in the field
  • 32. Is There the Political Will?A Look at Trends Over the LastSeveral Decades Suggests Not
  • 33. Trend in Agricultural R&D Expenditures in Developing Countries, 1981-2006 LAC Massive investments In AsiaSource: Public Agricultural Research in Latin America and the Caribbean by G.Stads and N. M. Beintema
  • 34. Irrigation Investment in LAC g 1962-95 (IDB+WB)) 1995-09 (WB only) ¿! !Source: Irrigation and Water Resources in LatinAmerica and the Caribbean: Challenges andStrategies by Ringer, Rosegrant and Paisner Source: www.worldbank.org
  • 35. Policies & MarketsCan A Major Shift in Trade of a Major Crop Happen? It Has Before…
  • 36. Transformation of the Global Soybean M k t S b Market100%80%60%40%20% 0% 70/71 73/74 76/77 79/80 82/83 85/86 88/89 91/92 94/95 97/98 00/01 03/04 06/07 United St t U it d States Brazil B il Argentina A ti Rest f the R t of th world ld Data Source: USDA
  • 37. Emergence of Chinese Dependence on g p Foreign Soybeans Was a Driver for Change000 MT50,00040,00030,00020,00010,000 0 70/71 74/75 78/79 82/83 86/87 90/91 94/95 98/99 02/03 06/07 Domestic consumption Imports Data Source: USDA
  • 38. LAC Becoming the Next Rice Bowl! • Bi Biggest advantage: t d t – Endowed with plenty of land and water. • Bottleneck – Global market is too small and unstable. – As it stands right now, LAC rice is not competitive in the export market. • Although subsidies in many rice growing countries make it even look worse – Inadequate infrastructure • What Needs to Happen? – LAC countries need to lower costs to $1,000 per hectare and improve productivity to at least 7 tons/ha to be able to compete in the global market (Calvert et al.) – A stable global market and minimal distortions in rice trade.
  • 39. Human capacity will have to be rebuilt
  • 40. In Summary…• We need productivity growth but that requires research, development, dissemination• Global food security depends on sustaining irrigated rice systems and probably opening new land• Lessons from the Green Revolution: it DOES work• The requirements for success are in place• Commitments to the next generation of scientists• Latin America can & must play a key role
  • 41. Thank you“Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.” The Economist “The Silent Tsunami” 19 April 2008
  • 42. Help us fill the world’s rice bowls world s Come join us! http://irri.org/JoinUs htt //i i /J i U