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The Global Rice Supply and     Demand Outlook           Samarendu Mohanty       Head, Social Sciences Division   Internati...
Outline• Current happenings in the global rice  market  – What can we expect in the next few months?• Medium- to long-term...
Crop Prices (CBOT)Wheat                        Corn        50%                         35%              Cotton            ...
Thai 5% Broken Rice Price                            (May 2008 to August 2010)US$/t (fob) 1000  900  800  700  600  500  4...
Global Rice Production000 MT  480,000  450,000  420,000  390,000  360,000  330,000  300,000            00/01    01/02    0...
Global Rice Inventory Million T Milli Tons160140                                       China                              ...
2010 Global Rice ProductionMillion Tons   470   465   460   455   450   445   440   435   430               Aug-2010      ...
Pakistan Rice Production000 MT7,000 ,6,0005,0005 0004,0003,0002,0001,000   0         00/01   01/02    02/03    03/04   04/...
Pakistan Exports in 2010/11?000 MT7,000 ,6,0005,0005 0004,0003,0002,0001,000   0         00/01   01/02   02/03   03/04   0...
Other Uncertainties for Standing            Rice Crop            Ri C• Drought and Flood in China: Expected to  lower 2010...
Rice Price in a Consolidation Zone                                   (Oct.                                   (Oct 08 to Au...
Wheat vs Rice PricesUS$/t (fob) 1000  900  800  700  600  500  400  300  200  100         Aug‐05                   Dec‐05 ...
Near Term Outlook• Some strengthening of rice prices                               prices.• Further rise in wheat prices a...
MediumMedium- to Long Term Perspective           Long-Term• How much we need?• Who will produce it?
Rice Consumption vs Income                         g/yr)                                 180  nsumption per capita (kg    ...
Per capita consumption vs. per capita GDP at 2000 US$ (1990,2000,2005)                                      180           ...
Rice Consumption by Income Group
Per capita Monthly Rice Consumption in           Vietnam: U b vs R l           Vi t      Urban    RuralKilograms 180 160 1...
SSA Per Capita Rice ConsumptionKilograms    25    20    15    10     5     0         1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 20...
Per Capita Rice Consumption                                    (World-Asia-SSA)Kilograms   20   18   16   14   12   10    ...
Global Rice Production Increases Needed to Meet Demand by 2035                                                            ...
Global Rice Supply:                              Area vs YieldPercent                                                     ...
Paddy Yields (       y        (Average 05/06-08/09)                      g             )Tonnes/Ha                    Asian...
Breeding and management for CA                systemsMulti-location screening of NT-DSRR. Mugaloda & CSISA collaborators  ...
Nutrient management decision tools for        extension workers and farmersReleased:Philippines, Indonesia,Philippines Ind...
Postharvest managementQuality,QualityWater,Labor           Laser leveling                                        Min Combi...
Sub Saharan                  Sub-Saharan Africa RiceMillion Tons                 Million Tons  Data Source: USDA
Concluding Remarks• Short-Term Outlook:  Short Term  – Some strengthening of rice prices.  – Further rise in wheat prices ...
Concluding Remarks• 2035 outlook:  – Significant decline in consumption growth    beyond 2020.    • Only 50 million tons o...
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Transcript of "Global rice suppy_demand_outlook"

  1. 1. The Global Rice Supply and Demand Outlook Samarendu Mohanty Head, Social Sciences Division International Rice R I t ti l Ri Research I tit t h Institute
  2. 2. Outline• Current happenings in the global rice market – What can we expect in the next few months?• Medium- to long-term supply and demand situation – How much we need and who will produce it?• Concluding remarks
  3. 3. Crop Prices (CBOT)Wheat Corn 50% 35% Cotton 40% Chart Source: http://futures tradingcharts.com/
  4. 4. Thai 5% Broken Rice Price (May 2008 to August 2010)US$/t (fob) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Feb-10 May-10 Aug-10 May-08 Aug-08 Nov-08 Feb-09 May-09 Aug-09 Nov-09 Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank
  5. 5. Global Rice Production000 MT 480,000 450,000 420,000 390,000 360,000 330,000 300,000 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 10/11* Data Source: PSD, USDA (Accessed on Sept. 11, 2010
  6. 6. Global Rice Inventory Million T Milli Tons160140 China Chi India I di Vietnam Vi t Thailand Th il d RoW R W120100 80 60 40 20 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Data Source: PSD, USDA (Accessed on Sept. 11, 2010
  7. 7. 2010 Global Rice ProductionMillion Tons 470 465 460 455 450 445 440 435 430 Aug-2010 g Sept-2010 Source: WASDE, USDA
  8. 8. Pakistan Rice Production000 MT7,000 ,6,0005,0005 0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11* 10/11 Data Source: PSD, USDA (Accessed on Sept. 11, 2010
  9. 9. Pakistan Exports in 2010/11?000 MT7,000 ,6,0005,0005 0004,0003,0002,0001,000 0 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11
  10. 10. Other Uncertainties for Standing Rice Crop Ri C• Drought and Flood in China: Expected to lower 2010 production by 5 percent• La Niña in Southeast Asia• Droughts in India’s East and Northeast India s and floods in few northern states. – On average 3-4 million hectares of crop area 34 is lost to flood annually.
  11. 11. Rice Price in a Consolidation Zone (Oct. (Oct 08 to August 2010)US$/t (fob) 650 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 April-09 Jun-09 Aug-09 Oct-09 Dec-09 Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank
  12. 12. Wheat vs Rice PricesUS$/t (fob) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100  Aug‐05  Dec‐05  Apr‐06  Aug‐06  Dec‐06  Apr‐07  Aug‐07  Dec‐07  April‐08  Aug‐08  Dec‐08  April‐09  Aug‐09  Dec‐09 Apr‐10 Aug‐10 Thai 5% Thai 5% HRW@Gulf Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank and USDA
  13. 13. Near Term Outlook• Some strengthening of rice prices prices.• Further rise in wheat prices are likely to put additional pressure on rice rice.• Dry season rice acreage may be affected by higher h t b hi h wheat, corn and cotton prices. d tt i
  14. 14. MediumMedium- to Long Term Perspective Long-Term• How much we need?• Who will produce it?
  15. 15. Rice Consumption vs Income g/yr) 180 nsumption per capita (kg 1961-2005 140 Japan p Korea 100Con 60 20 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 Per capita income (US$) p ( )
  16. 16. Per capita consumption vs. per capita GDP at 2000 US$ (1990,2000,2005) 180 Vietnam 160 BangladeshRice consumption per capita (kg/yr) 140 Indonesia 120 Thailand 100 Philippines Malaysia 80 China India I di 60 40 20 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 Per capita income (2000 US$)
  17. 17. Rice Consumption by Income Group
  18. 18. Per capita Monthly Rice Consumption in Vietnam: U b vs R l Vi t Urban RuralKilograms 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1992 1997 2002 2004 2006 Urban Rural
  19. 19. SSA Per Capita Rice ConsumptionKilograms 25 20 15 10 5 0 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
  20. 20. Per Capita Rice Consumption (World-Asia-SSA)Kilograms 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 00 03 06 09 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 Data Source: USDA, FAO
  21. 21. Global Rice Production Increases Needed to Meet Demand by 2035 yMillion tons milled rice600550 Additional rice needed: 116 million tons by 2035500450400 2010 global rice production350300 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Asia A i Africa Af i Americas A i Rest f World R t of W ld
  22. 22. Global Rice Supply: Area vs YieldPercent 000 Ha Area Consumption Growth Yield Growth *These numbers are calculated based on 10‐year Moving Average
  23. 23. Paddy Yields ( y (Average 05/06-08/09) g )Tonnes/Ha Asian Countries African Countries Data Source: FAOSTAT
  24. 24. Breeding and management for CA systemsMulti-location screening of NT-DSRR. Mugaloda & CSISA collaborators On-farm evaluation in CSISA Hubs M. Mazid, NW Bangladesh Hub
  25. 25. Nutrient management decision tools for extension workers and farmersReleased:Philippines, Indonesia,Philippines IndonesiaZhejiang (PRC)Pipeline:BangladeshIndia (T.N., W.B.)Sri LankaSiL kVietnamGuangdong (PRC)W. AfricaWheat: NW IndiaMaize: Bangladesh R. Buresh (IRRI), NARS and private sector collaborators
  26. 26. Postharvest managementQuality,QualityWater,Labor Laser leveling Min Combine transfer Physical loss: 12-25%Market info Loss at market: up to 50% Drying system Farmers don’t value add transfer Farmers’ seeds Quality tools y Rice mill improvement Super bags
  27. 27. Sub Saharan Sub-Saharan Africa RiceMillion Tons Million Tons Data Source: USDA
  28. 28. Concluding Remarks• Short-Term Outlook: Short Term – Some strengthening of rice prices. – Further rise in wheat prices are likely to put additional pressure on rice. – High wheat, corn and cotton prices should also wheat affect the dry season rice area.• 2020 outlook: – Need to produce additional 57 million tons of milled rice rice. – Further area expansion is highly unlikely. – Required yield growth of 1 5% as compared to 1.5% 0.8% in the baseline.
  29. 29. Concluding Remarks• 2035 outlook: – Significant decline in consumption growth beyond 2020. • Only 50 million tons of additional rice by 2035 – Rice acreage is likely to decline. – Best bet: Yield needs to grow between 1-1.2 percent
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