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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight
 

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

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Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight

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  • The complexities involved in projecting food supply and demand over the longer term have raised interest in closer comparison of different projection exercises; thus AgMIP (acknowledge USDA support).
  • Shows the range of results for 7 climate change scenarios with RCP 8.5 to 2 climate models; 2 crop models; 9 economic models, relative to the case of no climate change.YEXO down by mean (red line) of 17 percent, YTOT down 11, AREA up 11, PROD down 2, TRSH up 1, CONS down 3, PRICE up 20.Note prices up and yields down particularly hard for rural poor who will see food costs rise and incomes fall.Also note caveat that these scenarios were selected to facilitate model intercomparison, not to reflect likely futures.

Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Presentation Transcript

  • Global Futures and Strategic Foresight CIAT, Cali 24 February 2014
  • Objectives • Enhance a coordinated suite of biophysical and economic models • Strengthen capacity and build a community of practice for ex ante impact assessment • Assess potential returns to a range of possible technologies and investments under alternative global futures
  • Overview • Global Futures Phase 1 (2010 – 2013) • Funding from BMGF and CCAFS • IFPRI, CIAT, CIMMYT, CIP, ICRISAT, IRRI; ICRAF, ILRI • Global Futures and Strategic Foresight Phase 2 (2013 – 2016) • Funding from BMGF, CCAFS and PIM • Joined by ICARDA, IITA, IWMI and WorldFish
  • Modeling climate impacts on agriculture Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
  • AgMIP climate scenarios to 2050 Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2013)
  • The role of agricultural technologies Source: IFPRI (2014) • Baseline to 2050, including climate change • Linked crop models and economic models • Assessed 11 technologies for maize, rice and wheat • Impacts on prices, yields, risk of hunger
  • IMPACT – Una Red de Modulos • Módulos Actuales • Modelo Económico • Producción de Cultivos • Producción Ganadero • Producción de productos procesados • Modelos Hídricos • Modelos de Nutrición • Modelo de análisis de beneficio y costo • Futuros módulos: • Agropecuario • Mejorado Producción ganadero • Módulo de biocombustibles 7
  • Producción Demanda y Precios Producción Prices Demanda • Crecimiento exogeno • Precios del productos • Gastos de producción • Equilibra demanda y producción • Ingresos • Precios • Población 8
  • Geografía en IMPACT 159 154 320 • Países • Cuencas • Unidades de Producción Agraria
  • Producción y Demanda • 56 cultivos • Producción • Comercio • Consumo • Demanda desagregado por país y posiblemente por tipo de consumidor (i.e. urbano-rural, rico-pobre) 10
  • Actividades y Productos – La cadena de producción Actividad Prima Producto • Produce algun producto • Se vende en el Mercado Actividad Procesador Productos procesados • Demanda productos • Produce nuevos productos procesados • Soybean Oil (csbol) • Soybean Meal (csbml) 11
  • Ag R&D Cycle Clayuca FLAR Policy Recommendations & strategies Cassava, Beans, Rice, Forages Problem identification Intervention Priority setting Cassava, Be ans, Rice Foresight & ex-ante eval Outputs, Outcomes Impacts M&E, review (Ex-post evaluation)
  • Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT Technologies DELPHI Process ( y) ( DSSAT, Biophysical models y) Shocks Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies Dalys, Env Services, Gender issues, other ( y, P ) IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  • Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT Technologies ( y) ( DSSAT, Biophysical models y) Shocks Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies • DSSAT: Participated in DELPHI Process various workshops and meetings (including AgMip) Dalys, Env Services, • Set up of a working High Gender issues, Performance Cluster for other crop modeling ∆y, ∆P • Data collection, calibration of cultivars (beans) • Following the revamping of cassava model IMPACT Model • Data collection: management practices Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  • Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT • Expert surveys to detect Technologies constraints: Cassava, rice • Future: expert survey for DSSAT, Biop hysical beans, expert consultation for forages models • Multicriteria surveys to Shocks stakeholders: Cassava, rice • Foresight workshops for agriculture in LAC Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies DELPHI Process Dalys, Env Services, Gender issues, other ∆y, ∆P IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  • Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT • minor participation in the Technologies elaboration of the new IMPACT • Run a few models, Biop ones: DSSAT, main hysical • Herbicide tolerant Cassava models • Biological control of mealybug • Subutilized • Future work: Shocks • Analyze new technologies • Model for LAC • Model commodity markets: Priority setting Cassva and beans New technologies Strategies, policies DELPHI Process Dalys, Env Services, Gender issues, other ∆y, ∆P IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  • Global Futures & Strategic Foresight at CIAT Technologies DSSAT, Biophysical models Shocks Priority setting New technologies Strategies, policies • RTB CRP ps project • SetDELPHI Process priorities for: rice, beans, forages Dalys, Env • Analyze and keep Services, Gender track of issues, other changes in major trends and drivers ∆y, ∆P for CIAT Commodities / in LAC • Strategic foresight for main crops: multidisciplinary committees IMPACT Model Multicriteria Analysis Socio-economic model
  • Opportunities GFSF & CIAT • Internal: • Priority setting for crop groups: support for R&D agenda • Identifying opportunities and risks • Linking research to impacts: donors • CGIAR level • Increase communication among centers and CRPs • Help setting credible IDOs & Outcomes • Policy making • Scenario based global modeling: support decision making • Work with NARs in strategic planning