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Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security CCAFS CIAT

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  • Cambiosobservados de la tendencia
  • Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
  • Transcript

    • 1. CCAFS: An Overview
    • 2. Message 1:
      In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
    • 3. The concentration of GHGsisrising
      Long-termimplications
      for the climate and
      forcropsuitability
    • 4. Climate baselines and variability are rising
      Annual temperature trends, 1901 a 2005. In °C per century
    • 5. Cropsuitabilityischanging
      Averageprojectedchange in suitabilityfor 50 crops, to 2050
    • 6. Food demands will rise
      In order to meet global demands, we will need
      60-70%
      more food
      by 2050.
    • 7. “Unchecked climate change will result in a
      20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.
      -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
    • 8. Message 2:
      With new challenges also come
      new opportunities.
    • 9. Ecosystem valuation
      Average price in voluntary
      carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
      2006
      2007
      2008
      Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system
    • 10. Genetic improvement
      We can determine the most effective genetic improvement strategyfor each region, and then develop seeds with the appropriate cold, heat, drought, or waterlogging resistance
      Map showing strategies for adapting beans.
    • 11. Message 3:
      CCAFS aims to tap into those opportunities.
    • 12. CCAFS: the partnership
      The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) andtheEarth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
    • 13. The CCAFS Team:
      Who’s leading the research?
      T1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis, CIAT; and Andy Challinor, Univ. of Leeds
      Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji
      T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
      Theme Leader: Jim Hansen
      Science Officer: Kevin Coffey
      T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation
      Theme Leader: LiniWollenberg
      Science Officer: Michael Misiko
      T4: Integration for
      Decision Making
      Theme Leader: Phil Thornton
      Science Officer: Wiebke Chaudhury
    • 14. The CCAFS Team:
      Who’s coordinating the effort?
      CCAFS Director and Heads
      Director: Bruce Campbell
      Head of Research: Sonja Vermeulen
      Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann
      Program & Comm. Support
      Program Manager: MishaWolsgaard-Iversen
      Events & Program Support Consultant: RatihSeptivita
      Communications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu
    • 15. CCAFS
      Objectives
      Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.
      Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.
    • 16. The CGIAR Research Centers
      Where is the research being done?
      >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices
    • 17. The Three Focus Regions
      Indo-Gangetic Plains:
      Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal
      Regional director:
      Pramod Aggarwal
      West Africa:
      Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger
      Regional director:
      Robert Zougmoré
      East Africa:
      Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia
      Regional director:
      James Kinyangi
    • 18. REGION: West Africa
      Population
      High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.
      Current Climate
      The climate is characterized by a strong latitudinal rainfall gradient and dramatic fluctuations in precipitation over multi-decadal time scales. The region also suffers from widespread land degradation, particularly in the semi-arid Sudano-Sahelian zone. Water use and population growth are resulting in increasing stresses on existing water sources.
      Future Climate
      Due to the extreme variability in the rainfall regime, predictions for rainfall vary for the region. Nevertheless, most models agree that the Sahel will experience shorter growing periods.
    • 19. REGION: East Africa
      Population
      High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands.
      Current Climate
      The region exhibits strong heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-ecosystems, livelihoods, and environmental challenges. Rainfall is reasonably predictable, and temperature gradients are associated with elevation.
      Future Climate
      Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.
    • 20. REGION: Indo-Gangetic Plains
      Population
      “The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region” (IPCC 2007). Because of its intensified, irrigated agricultural production systems, it is the “bread basket” of South Asia.
      Current Climate
      Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the timing and strength of northeast and southwest monsoons, which supply ~80% of the region’s total annual rainfall. The area is prone to droughts (west) and flooding (east).
      Future Climate
      There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise. Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation, but the general consensus that the intensity and probability of extreme events will increase. The timing of monsoons may become more variable.
    • 21. The CCAFS Framework:
      Research Themes, Outputs, and Impacts
      Adapting Agriculture to
      Climate Variability and Change
      Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
      Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
      Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
      Improved Environmental Health
      Improved Rural Livelihoods
      Improved Food Security
      Trade-offs and Synergies
      4. Integration for Decision Making
      • Linking Knowledge with Action
      • 22. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
      • 23. Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
      Enhanced adaptive capacity
      in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems
    • 24. THE VISION
      To adapt farming systems, we need to:
      • Close the yield gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies
      • 25. Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase agricultural potential
      • 26. Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
      Progressive
      Adaptation
    • 27. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Objective One:
      Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
      Objective Two:
      Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates
      1one
      Objective Three:
      Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
    • 28. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Objective One:
      Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
      1one
      Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)
      Agricultural knowledge transfer from NARS, universities and other CRPs
      Analysis of policies and institutional mechanisms that enable adaptation
    • 29. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Objective Two:
      Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates
      1one
      Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies
      Regional fora to discuss and set priorities
      Policies of access for benefit sharing
    • 30. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Objective Three:
      Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
      1one
      Knowledge for enhanced use of germplasm for adaptation
      On-farm use of diversity to adapt
      Policies of access for benefit sharing
    • 31. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
      What is it?
      Why is it useful?
      The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge.
      It brings together farmers’ realities on the ground and links them with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight the current challenges that need to be tackled to improve climate change resilience and smallholders’ livelihoods.
      1one
    • 32. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
      1one
    • 33. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      >> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool
      What is it?
      Why is it useful?
      The climate analogue tool measures of climatic dissimilarity between a projection of future climate at a user-specified location and current climate globally. The tool is designed to identify areas whose climate today appears as a likely analogue to future projected climate for another user-specified location.
      The tool will facilitate on-the-ground evaluations of whether adaptation options that appear successful in certain places can be transferred to other areas that may face similar climate conditions in the future. In this way, it promotes knowledge transfer and communal learning.
      1one
    • 34. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      >> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool
      1one
    • 35. THE VISION
      • Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency
      • 36. Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
      • 37. Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.
      Risk
      Management
    • 38. Managing Climate Risk
      Objective One:
      Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)
      Objective Two:
      Food delivery, trade, and crisis response
      (Food system level)
      2two
      Objective Three:
      Enhanced climate information and services
    • 39. Managing Climate Risk
      Objective One:
      Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)
      2two
      Designed diversification
      Index-based risk transfer
      Anticipatory management, aided by forecasts and communication (O3)
      Participatory action research
    • 40. Managing Climate Risk
      Objective Two:
      Food delivery, trade, and crisis response
      (Food system level)
      2two
      Manage price volatility through trade and storage
      Post-crisis recovery
      Food security safety nets
      Improved early warning systems (O3)
      Platform for coordination
    • 41. Managing Climate Risk
      Objective Three:
      Enhanced climate information and services
      services
      information
      2two
      Historic data reconstruction
      Institutional arrangements
      Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions
      Communication processes
      Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests and diseases
      Capacity building for providers
    • 42. Managing Climate Risk
      >> Spotlight on: Participatory action research
      What is it?
      Why is it useful?
      A network of participatory pilot demonstrations will engage rural communities and local stakeholders at benchmark sites to identify, develop and evaluate suites of promising risk management interventions focusing on: (a) designed diversification, (b) index-based financial risk transfer, and (c) adaptive management.
      Research and informed outside intervention can improve livelihoods where external change: (a) is too rapid for trial-and-error strategies to respond to; (b) have undermined traditional livelihood strategies; or (c) has created new opportunities that require technical support or market development.
      2two
    • 43. Managing Climate Risk
      >> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance
      What CCAFS outputs?
      Why is it useful?
      • Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance
      • 44. Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk
      Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index overcomes problems with moral hazard, adverse selection and the high cost of verifying losses. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks, while rural financial services are protected from widespread default.
      2two
      In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.
    • 45. Managing Climate Risk
      >> Spotlight on: Improved crop forecasts
      What CCAFS outputs?
      Why is it useful?
      • Improved crop forecast lead time & accuracy
      • 46. Analysis of impact of food security early response rules on logistical and livelihood costs
      • 47. Analysis of impact of trade informed by early warning on price volatility
      Rural communities avoid the need to divest productive assets before assistance arrives. Stabilized supplies and prices reduce the need for counterproductive coping strategies by net consumers
      2two
    • 48. CHALLENGES
      Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes
      Long-term: Conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
      Mitigation
    • 49. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation
      Objective One:
      Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways
      Objective Two:
      Develop incentives and institutional arrangements
      3three
      Objective Three:
      Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
    • 50. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation
      Objective One:
      Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways
      3three
      Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for:
      food production and adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation
      Assess impacts of current policies
      Develop coherent visions to guide agricultural development
    • 51. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation
      Objective Two:
      Develop incentives and institutional arrangements
      3three
      Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on where mitigation success is most likely (SE Asia, Latin America)
      Assess potential non-market incentives and institutional arrangements for poor
      Assess impacts
      on marginalized groups and women
    • 52. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation
      Objective Three:
      Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
      3three
      Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms for multiple sectors.
      Develop cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. Towards that end, establish and improve data and meteorological standards.
      Assess impacts of all GHG, through their lifecycles.
    • 53. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation
      >> Spotlight on: Determining mitigation potential
      What CCAFS outputs?
      Why is it useful?
      Using  modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies  consistent with maintaining food supply.
      Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.
      3three
    • 54. Pro-Poor CC Mitigation
      What CCAFS outputs?
      Why is it useful?
      >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural mitigation
      Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts.
      Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground.
      3three
    • 55. VISION
      • Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context
      • 56. Synthesize lessons learned
      • 57. Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers
      • 58. Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions
      • 59. Build partners’ capacity
      Integration
    • 60. T2: Risk
      Management
      T3: Pro-poor
      Mitigation
      Integration for Decision Making
      4four
      Rural Livelihoods
      Environment
      Food Security
    • 61. Integration for Decision Making
      Objective One:
      Linking knowledge with action
      Objective Two:
      Data and tools for analysis and planning
      4four
      Objective Three:
      Refining frameworks for policy analysis
    • 62. Integration for Decision Making
      Objective One:
      Linking knowledge with action
      4four
      Regional scenarios
      Vulnerability assessments
      Approaches to decision making informed by good science
      Approaches to benefit women and other vulnerable, socially disadvantaged groups
    • 63. Integration for Decision Making
      Objective Two:
      Data and tools for analysis and planning
      4four
      Integrated assessment framework, toolkits and databases to assess climate change impacts
      Baselines, data generation &/or collation, scoping studies and tool development
      Socially‐differentiated decision aids and information for different stakeholders
    • 64. Integration for Decision Making
      Objective Three:
      Refining frameworks for policy analysis
      4four
      Assess CC impacts at global, regional levels on producers, consumers, natural resources, national/regional economies, and international transactions
      Analyze likely effects of specific adaptation and mitigation options, national policies
      Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups
    • 65. Integration for Decision Making
      >> Mainstream delivery of outputs and outcomes
      For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results
      • National agricultural research institutes
      • 66. National meteorological services
      • 67. Regional/int’l climate and agricultural research institutes
      4four
      For non-research partners to demand and use data, tools, and results
      • Governments
      • 68. Civil society, NGOs, and development organizations
      • 69. Private sector
      • 70. Farmers’associations

    • MarkSim
      Integration for Decision Making
      >> Spotlight on:
      What is it?
      Why is it useful?
      A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe
      To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies
      4four
      Available at http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/
    • 71.
      MarkSim
      Integration for Decision Making
      Select climate model
      (6 options or their avg)
      Select emissions scenario
      (3 options)
      4four
      Select the centre year of the time slice
      Select the number of years of data desired
      Select location
    • 72. CCAFS
      Capacity Enhancement
      Values
      A Definition
      A person or organization increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently, usually by building internal capacity, i.e. the skills and knowledge of an individual or the systems of an organization. Enabling capacity enhancement is a better strategy than attempting to "deliver" capacity development.
      The CCAFS Vision
      • Adaptation to future climates needs embedded local capacity, not external solutions
      • 73. CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action
    • In developing countries, women farmers account formore than 60% of the rural labor force andproduce up to 80% of local food. 
      They are also60% of the world’s hungry population.
    • 74. CCAFS
      Engaging with Vulnerable Communities
      Values
      Gender &
      Social Differentiation
      • Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) specialized abilities to respond
      • 75. 30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation
      • 76. Early work in baseline survey, gender studies, opportunities for women scientists
    • Global Policy Impact
      The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change
      The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals.
      Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD)
      CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations.
    • 77. CCAFS Start-Up
      2011 as a transition year
      • Centers begin to adjust their CRP7 funded research agendas towards the broader CCAFS strategy, with support from CCAFS-led activities and through CCAFS established partnerships.
      • 78. Low-hanging fruit inter-centre collaborations.
      2012 and beyond
      • Centers fully aligned with CCAFS, and contributing to multi-center, multi-partner programs of work.
      • 79. Budget assigned strategically.
    • 3%
      Theme 1: Adaptation to progressive
      climate change
      27%
      Theme 2: Adaptation through managing
      37%
      climate risk
      Theme 3: Pro-
      -
      poor climate change
      mitigation
      Theme 4: Integration for decision making
      19%
      CRP7:Theme and regional coordination
      14%
      CCAFS Budget
    • 80. What you should do?
      Learn and engage
      • Learn about the program on the web and through presentations
      • 81. Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research
      Collaborate and contribute
      • Use research products coming out of other centers
      • 82. Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy
      • 83. Develop ownership and feel a part of the program
    • Thank you.
      Stay Connected
      Website: www.ccafs.cgiar.org
      Blog: www.ccafs.cgiar.org/blog
      Sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins at our website.
      Follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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