Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
CCAFS: An Overview
Message 1: In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
The concentration of GHGsisrising Long-termimplications for the climate and forcropsuitability
Climate baselines and variability are rising Annual temperature trends, 1901 a 2005. In °C per century
Cropsuitabilityischanging Averageprojectedchange in suitabilityfor 50 crops, to 2050
Food demands will rise In order to meet global demands, we will need 60-70% more food by 2050.
“Unchecked climate change will result in a 20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario. -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
Message 2: With new challenges also come new opportunities.
Ecosystem valuation Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e) 2006 2007 2008 Left: Example of a silvo-pastoral system
Genetic improvement We can determine the most effective genetic improvement strategyfor each region, and then develop seeds with the appropriate cold, heat, drought, or waterlogging resistance Map showing strategies for adapting beans.
Message 3: CCAFS aims to tap into those opportunities.
CCAFS: the partnership The CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) is a strategic collaboration between the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) andtheEarth System Science Partnership (ESSP).
The CCAFS Team: Who’s leading the research? T1: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Theme Leaders: Andy Jarvis, CIAT; and Andy Challinor, Univ. of Leeds Science Officer: Osana Bonilla-Findji T2: Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Theme Leader: Jim Hansen Science Officer: Kevin Coffey T3: Pro-Poor Climate Change Mitigation Theme Leader: LiniWollenberg Science Officer: Michael Misiko T4: Integration for Decision Making Theme Leader: Phil Thornton Science Officer: Wiebke Chaudhury
The CCAFS Team: Who’s coordinating the effort? CCAFS Director and Heads Director: Bruce Campbell Head of Research: Sonja Vermeulen Head of Program Coordination and Communications: Torben Timmermann Program & Comm. Support Program Manager: MishaWolsgaard-Iversen Events & Program Support Consultant: RatihSeptivita Communications Consultant: Vanessa Meadu
CCAFS Objectives Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues inagricultural policies, at all levels.
The CGIAR Research Centers Where is the research being done? >> At our 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices
The Three Focus Regions Indo-Gangetic Plains: Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal Regional director: Pramod Aggarwal West Africa: Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger Regional director: Robert Zougmoré East Africa: Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia Regional director: James Kinyangi
REGION: West Africa Population High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands. Current Climate The climate is characterized by a strong latitudinal rainfall gradient and dramatic fluctuations in precipitation over multi-decadal time scales. The region also suffers from widespread land degradation, particularly in the semi-arid Sudano-Sahelian zone. Water use and population growth are resulting in increasing stresses on existing water sources. Future Climate Due to the extreme variability in the rainfall regime, predictions for rainfall vary for the region. Nevertheless, most models agree that the Sahel will experience shorter growing periods.
REGION: East Africa Population High rural poverty rates and large populations dependent on rainfed subsistence agriculture in drylands. Current Climate The region exhibits strong heterogeneity of climate, topography, agro-ecosystems, livelihoods, and environmental challenges. Rainfall is reasonably predictable, and temperature gradients are associated with elevation. Future Climate Climate change will likely intensify surface and groundwater stress.
REGION: Indo-Gangetic Plains Population “The Gangetic basin alone is home to 500 million people, about 10% of the total human population in the region” (IPCC 2007). Because of its intensified, irrigated agricultural production systems, it is the “bread basket” of South Asia. Current Climate Agricultural productivity is highly dependent on the timing and strength of northeast and southwest monsoons, which supply ~80% of the region’s total annual rainfall. The area is prone to droughts (west) and flooding (east). Future Climate There is risk of heat stress, melting glaciers, and sea level rise. Some uncertainty exists regarding precipitation, but the general consensus that the intensity and probability of extreme events will increase. The timing of monsoons may become more variable.
The CCAFS Framework: Research Themes, Outputs, and Impacts Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Improved Environmental Health Improved Rural Livelihoods Improved Food Security Trade-offs and Synergies 4. Integration for Decision Making
Linking Knowledge with Action
Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems
THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to:
Close the yield gap by effectively using current technologies, practices and policies
Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase agricultural potential
Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates 1one Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies 1one Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites) Agricultural knowledge transfer from NARS, universities and other CRPs Analysis of policies and institutional mechanisms that enable adaptation
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates 1one Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies Regional fora to discuss and set priorities Policies of access for benefit sharing
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change Objective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity 1one Knowledge for enhanced use of germplasm for adaptation On-farm use of diversity to adapt Policies of access for benefit sharing
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform What is it? Why is it useful? The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing current agricultural adaptation and mitigation knowledge. It brings together farmers’ realities on the ground and links them with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight the current challenges that need to be tackled to improve climate change resilience and smallholders’ livelihoods. 1one
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform 1one
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool What is it? Why is it useful? The climate analogue tool measures of climatic dissimilarity between a projection of future climate at a user-specified location and current climate globally. The tool is designed to identify areas whose climate today appears as a likely analogue to future projected climate for another user-specified location. The tool will facilitate on-the-ground evaluations of whether adaptation options that appear successful in certain places can be transferred to other areas that may face similar climate conditions in the future. In this way, it promotes knowledge transfer and communal learning. 1one
Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change >> Spotlight on: The Climate Analogue Tool 1one
Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency
Actions taken now can reduce vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience in the long term
Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.
Managing Climate Risk Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level) 2two Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services
Managing Climate Risk Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level) 2two Designed diversification Index-based risk transfer Anticipatory management, aided by forecasts and communication (O3) Participatory action research
Managing Climate Risk Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level) 2two Manage price volatility through trade and storage Post-crisis recovery Food security safety nets Improved early warning systems (O3) Platform for coordination
Managing Climate Risk Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services services information 2two Historic data reconstruction Institutional arrangements Downscaled, tailored seasonal forecast predictions Communication processes Monitor and forecast crops, rangelands, pests and diseases Capacity building for providers
Managing Climate Risk >> Spotlight on: Participatory action research What is it? Why is it useful? A network of participatory pilot demonstrations will engage rural communities and local stakeholders at benchmark sites to identify, develop and evaluate suites of promising risk management interventions focusing on: (a) designed diversification, (b) index-based financial risk transfer, and (c) adaptive management. Research and informed outside intervention can improve livelihoods where external change: (a) is too rapid for trial-and-error strategies to respond to; (b) have undermined traditional livelihood strategies; or (c) has created new opportunities that require technical support or market development. 2two
Managing Climate Risk >> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance What CCAFS outputs? Why is it useful?
Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance
Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk
Basing payouts on an objectively-measured index overcomes problems with moral hazard, adverse selection and the high cost of verifying losses. Farmers’ assets are protected from climate shocks, while rural financial services are protected from widespread default. 2two In indexed insurance schemes, payouts are based on a meteorological index (e.g., rainfall) correlated with agricultural losses, rather than on observed losses.
Managing Climate Risk >> Spotlight on: Improved crop forecasts What CCAFS outputs? Why is it useful?
Improved crop forecast lead time & accuracy
Analysis of impact of food security early response rules on logistical and livelihood costs
Analysis of impact of trade informed by early warning on price volatility
Rural communities avoid the need to divest productive assets before assistance arrives. Stabilized supplies and prices reduce the need for counterproductive coping strategies by net consumers 2two
CHALLENGES Short-term: Identifying options feasible for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term: Conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation Mitigation
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements 3three Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways 3three Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production and adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation Assess impacts of current policies Develop coherent visions to guide agricultural development
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements 3three Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders, focusing on where mitigation success is most likely (SE Asia, Latin America) Assess potential non-market incentives and institutional arrangements for poor Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications 3three Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms for multiple sectors. Develop cost-effective, simple, integrated MRV. Towards that end, establish and improve data and meteorological standards. Assess impacts of all GHG, through their lifecycles.
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation >> Spotlight on: Determining mitigation potential What CCAFS outputs? Why is it useful? Using modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies consistent with maintaining food supply. Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. 3three
Pro-Poor CC Mitigation What CCAFS outputs? Why is it useful? >> Spotlight on: Quantifying agricultural mitigation Two workshops, hosted together with FAO and Duke University, will provide an overview and synthesis of how to quantify emissions for smallholder systems, especially for farm- and landscape level-impacts. Determining the mitigation potential of agricultural practices at country and site levels will facilitate interventions on the ground. 3three
T2: Risk Management T3: Pro-poor Mitigation Integration for Decision Making 4four Rural Livelihoods Environment Food Security
Integration for Decision Making Objective One: Linking knowledge with action Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning 4four Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis
Integration for Decision Making Objective One: Linking knowledge with action 4four Regional scenarios Vulnerability assessments Approaches to decision making informed by good science Approaches to benefit women and other vulnerable, socially disadvantaged groups
Integration for Decision Making Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning 4four Integrated assessment framework, toolkits and databases to assess climate change impacts Baselines, data generation &/or collation, scoping studies and tool development Socially‐differentiated decision aids and information for different stakeholders
Integration for Decision Making Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis 4four Assess CC impacts at global, regional levels on producers, consumers, natural resources, national/regional economies, and international transactions Analyze likely effects of specific adaptation and mitigation options, national policies Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups
Integration for Decision Making >> Mainstream delivery of outputs and outcomes For research partners to generate useful data, tools, and results
™ MarkSim Integration for Decision Making >> Spotlight on: What is it? Why is it useful? A tool to generate daily data that are characteristic of future climatologies for any point on the globe To drive agricultural impact models for climate change studies 4four Available at http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/MarkSimGCM/
™ MarkSim Integration for Decision Making Select climate model (6 options or their avg) Select emissions scenario (3 options) 4four Select the centre year of the time slice Select the number of years of data desired Select location
CCAFS Capacity Enhancement Values A Definition A person or organization increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently, usually by building internal capacity, i.e. the skills and knowledge of an individual or the systems of an organization. Enabling capacity enhancement is a better strategy than attempting to "deliver" capacity development. The CCAFS Vision
Adaptation to future climates needs embedded local capacity, not external solutions
CCAFS aims to enhance both (a) research capacities and (b) capacities to link knowledge and action
In developing countries, women farmers account formore than 60% of the rural labor force andproduce up to 80% of local food. They are also60% of the world’s hungry population.
CCAFS Engaging with Vulnerable Communities Values Gender & Social Differentiation
Social groups differ in (a) vulnerability to climate change and (b) specialized abilities to respond
30% of CCAFS research budget will address gender & social differentiation
Early work in baseline survey, gender studies, opportunities for women scientists
Global Policy Impact The Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change The Commission will identify what policy changes and actions are needed now to help the world achieve sustainable agriculture that contributes to food security and poverty reduction, and helps respond to climate change adaptation and mitigation goals. Agriculture and Rural Development Day (ARDD) CCAFS is an active partner in the annual ARDD side event at the annual UNFCCC Conference of Parties negotiations.