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Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security

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  • Why focus on Food securityAnd climate change has to be set in the context of growing populations and changing diets60-70% more food will be needed by 2050 because of population growth and changing diets – and this is in a context where climate change will make agriculture more difficult.
  • Carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that. Can smallholders get a piece of the action?
  • Challenge Program then CGIAR Research ProgramTheme Leaders spread across CG system and the global change community in advanced research institutesNew way of working – deliberately networked
  • Brought together all the main players setting up community carbon projects in West and East AfricaIdentified research needs – institutional models, how they might work best for efficiency, equity
  • Wide set of CG and ESSP partners writing book chapters for Earthscan; covering the range of ag sectors including livestock and fisheriesSimilarly full range of lessons from REDD+: technical options, “measurement, reporting and verification” (MRV), finance, institutions, incentives-Using  modeling, remote sensing data and data on farmers' management practices, Winrock International and Applied GeoSolutions are estimating current agricultural emissions and generating scenarios of different mitigation strategies  consistent with maintaining food supply.
  • Massive exercise – training of survey teams and partners, multi-lingual survey instrument, large number of households in remote sitesSite selection based on multiple criteria to represent a range of exposure (e.g. predicted changes in rainfall), sensitivity (e.g. livelihood dependence on threatened crops) and capacity to respond (e.g. how well connected by roads) in each regionGraph from all households in three regions in baseline survey shows lower access among female-headed households to modern communications, especially phonesRelevant to many proposed interventions e.g. weather forecasts by cellphoneBaseline has multiple purposes: action research sites particularly for the adaptation themes 1 & 2 (these sites will be matched with analogue sites), better understanding of local and regional differences to guide best-bet technologies and practices to trial in different localities; also as formal baseline for future program assessment.
  • Have pledged 30% of research funds to understanding and acting on social differentiationVulnerability – climate change’s impacts on agriculture will affect different social groups very differently – while geographic areas differ enormously, in general we know e.g. that women are especially vulnerable But some of the most vulnerable also have the highest capacity and agency for change – e.g. women make up 80% of the agricultural workforce, and are primary carers during crucial early childhood years during which food security has strongest impacts on well-being and developmentInterventions should build on these capacities, empower, be appropriate (e.g. use women’s institutions and networks)Village participatory analysis is consultation with all social groups to understand differentiated needs, skills, perceptions, priorities
  • Second objective of CCAFS is to get climate change onto agricultural policy and planning, and vice versaPlus linking into food security and development agendas, such as the Millennium Goals, Rio+20, G20Much work at regional and national levelsTwo global examples are Commission and ARDDARDD 2010 very successful in terms of media outreach – 40 journalists, 10 media stories around the worldTwo degree photo essays also successful – blogged, redistributed, widely watched on youtube
  • Transcript

    • 1. CIAT BOT, May 2011
      Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) – Overview
      Bruce Campbell
      CCAFS Director
    • 2. The Challenge
    • 3. Message 1:
      In the coming decades, climate change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security, and rural livelihoods.
    • 4. In order to meet global demands, we will need
      60-70%
      more food
      by 2050.
    • 5. CO2
      The concentration of GHGsisrising
      CH4
      Long-termimplications
      for the climate and
      agriculture
      N2O
    • 6. The suitability for crops will decline in many areas……
      % change
      -95 to -31
      -30 to -11
      -10 to -1
      0
      1 to 29
      30 to 47
      48 to 98
      50 crops, to 2050
      Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS
    • 7. “Unchecked climate change will result in a
      20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.
      -Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
    • 8. Message 2:
      With new challenges also come
      new opportunities.
    • 9. Ecosystem services
      Average price in voluntary
      carbon markets ($/tCO2e)
      2006
      2007
      2008
    • 10. Program
      Design
    • 11. CCAFS: the partnership
    • 12. The CGIAR Research Centers
      Lead center - CIAT
    • 13.
    • 14. CCAFS objectives
      Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems.
      Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.
    • 15. The CCAFS Framework
      Adapting Agriculture to
      Climate Variability and Change
      Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:
      Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change
      Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk
      Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation
      Improved Environmental Health
      Improved Rural Livelihoods
      Improved Food Security
      4. Integration for Decision Making
      • Linking Knowledge with Action
      • 16. Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning
      • 17. Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis
      Trade-offs and Synergies
      Enhanced adaptive capacity
      in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems
    • 18. Place-based field work
      Indo-Gangetic Plains:
      Parts of India, Bangladesh, Nepal
      West Africa:
      Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger
      East Africa:
      Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia
    • 19. Progressive
      Adaptation
    • 20. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
      Objective One:
      Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies
      Objective Two:
      Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates
      Objective Three:
      Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity
    • 21. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
      >> Spotlight on: Farms of the future
      Searching for climate analogues
      The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality
      Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials
    • 22. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
      >> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up
      Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture
    • 23. Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1
      >> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform
      The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.
      It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.
    • 24. Risk Management
    • 25. Managing Climate Risk · 2
      Objective One:
      Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)
      Objective Two:
      Food delivery, trade, and crisis response
      (Food system level)
      Objective Three:
      Enhanced climate information and services
    • 26. Managing climate risk · 2
      >> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance
      • Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance
      • 27. Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk
    • Managing climate risk · 2
      >> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data
      Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across Africa
      Filling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO
      Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc
    • 28. Pro-poor
      Mitigation
    • 29. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
      Objective One:
      Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways
      Objective Two:
      Develop incentives and institutional arrangements
      Objective Three:
      Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications
    • 30. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
      >> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research
      Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa
    • 31. Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3
      >> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agricultural mitigation
      • Earthscan book of current knowledge
      • 32. Lessons from REDD+ for agriculture
    • Integration
    • 33. Integration for Decision Making · 4
      Objective One:
      Linking knowledge with action
      Objective Two:
      Data and tools for analysis and planning
      Objective Three:
      Refining frameworks for policy analysis
    • 34. Integration for Decision Making · 4
      >> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey
      Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households
      • Sites for participatory action research
      • 35. Guidance for research foci
      • 36. Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts

    • MarkSim
      Integration for Decision Making · 4
      Select climate model
      (6 options or their avg)
      Select emissions scenario
      (3 options)
      Select the centre year of the time slice
      Select the number of years of data desired
      Select location
    • 37. Cross-cutting
      principles,
      activities & outputs
    • 38. Building a user-driven agenda
      From local to regional to global
      • From large-scale stakeholder consultations
      e.g. GCARD, regional meetings
      • Specific exercises with selected groups
      e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials
    • 39. Capacity enhancement
      People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.
    • 40. Focus on the most vulnerable
      • Understand and act on social differentiation: gender, wealth, occupation etc
      • 41. Examine both vulnerability and agency, e.g. via village participatory analysis
    • Join up climate, ag & food policy
      Working with UNFCCC negotiators
      AgClim Letters
    • 42.
    • 43. Budget
      $63.2 million total
      Sources:
      CGIAR Fund - $41.4 million
      Current and Projected Restricted Donor Projects - $17.3 million
      Other Income $ 4.5 million
      30% to partners
    • 44.
    • 45. Budget allocation to Themes
    • 46. Challenges
      A new way of working – needs behavioral changes
      Boundary issues amongst CRPs
      Opportiunities
      • Largest coalition of scientists working on agriculture and climate change in developing countries
    • What Should You Do (as a scientist)?
      Learn and engage
      • Learn about the program on the web and through presentations
      • 47. Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research
      Collaborate and contribute
      • Use research products coming out of other centers
      • 48. Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy
      • 49. Develop ownership and feel a part of the program
    • stay in touch
      www.ccafs.cgiar.org
      sign up for science, policy and news e-bulletins
      follow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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