PRIORITIES FOR VIETNAM AGRICULTURE –
SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES
WITH THE REGION

Nguyen Van Bo, VAAS

Planning Meeting f...
GENERAL INFORMATION ON
VN AGRICULTURE COMPARED WITH
SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIES
VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (1)
Country
Indonesia
Myanmar
Thailand
Malaysia
Vietnam
Philippines
Laos
Cambodia

Area
Populat.
...
VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (2)
Country
Indonesia
Thailand
Malaysia
Philippines
Vietnam
Cambodia
Laos

GDP
US Bill.
878.2
366...
Trade and FDI, Millions USSD
Country

Total Trade.

FDI

Singapore

775,153

63,997

Thailand

458,904

7,778

Malaysia

4...
Security index score (1-5)
Country

Food

Water

Energy

Singapore

4.0

3.4

4.5

Brunei

3.5

3.0

4.0

Malaysia

3.2

3...
CROPS PRODUCTION, 2013
Crops

Area
1000ha

Production
1000 tons

Export
1000 tons

Mil.USD

Rice

7,899.9

44,076.1 6,653(...
ANIMAL PRODUCTION 2012
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Pigs: 26.25 mil (- 0.90%)
Poultry: 314.75 mil. (+ 3.0%)
Buffoloes: 2.56 mil. (- 2....
Agriculture Export Value, Mil. USD
Sectors
Crops Prod.
Forestry
Fishery
Others (Milk,
Veget. oils, Sugar

2012
14,997
4,93...
PROBLEMS FACING
CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURE
1. Limited in Agricultural Land (World average:
1.20 ha/capita; Vietnam: 0.104ha or 8.7% and
red...
GDP Growth in Agriculture
Period
1995-2000

%
4.01

2001-2005

3.83

2006-2010

3.30

Source: GSO
Rice Productivity Growth, %
1990-95

1996-2000

2011-05

2006-2010

3.05

2.84

2.91

1.72

Source: GSO
Agricultural productivity
in selected countries
Unit: USD/person/year
Structure of Agricultural Land Area/Household in 2010

Source: CAP based on VLSS 2010
Export Price, USD/tons
Rice

2011
514

2012
461

2013
410

(- 10.3% vs 2011) (- 11.1% vs 2012)

Rubber 3,954

2,792

2,356...
Investment Structure

Nguồn : Ước lượng từ số liệu của TCTK
17
Number of Enterprises 2000-2008

Source: GSO
Value Chain of Tea: % of
retail Price
7%

100%
90%
80%

5%

3%

3%

1%

2%

1%

1%

Người trồng chè

70%

Người chế biến t...
Value added per Agricultural labour
(US$; Average for 2006-2008 )

IPSARD, 2012
Climate Change Impacts on Vietnam

Most impacted countries: % Land Area
1m SLR
14

12
8

8

6

6

4

4

2

2

0
sh
e

a
B
...
Vietnam: Climate Change
1. Sea level Raise: Flood, Saltwater intrusion
Over the past fifty years, sea level has increased ...
VN AGRICULTURE- SWOT ANALYSIS
STRENGS
- Food Security at national level
- Good irrigation works
- Top raking in export of ...
ORIENTATIONS
OVERALL TARGETS
A. Sustainable Agriculture
B. Prosperous Rural Areas
C. Wealthy Farmers
NEW VISSION FOR AGRICULTURE

Every Decade:
- Production Growth increase by 20%,
ensuring food security at national and
hou...
PRIORITIES
• Food Security and safety
• Natural disaster mitigation and
Environment protection
• Human Resources Developme...
- GDP Growth: OBJECTIVES
• 2,6 – 3,0 %/year for 2011 – 2015
• 3,5 – 4,0 %/year for 2016 – 2020
– By 2020, farmers income i...
Orientations-Economic
-

Priority for development of high
competitive sector and commodities

–

Higher investment for pos...
VN Export Value VS Global, Mil. USD
Sectors
Fruit-Veget
Flowers
Rice
Coffee
Rubber
Tea
Cashew nut
Pepper
Total

Global Imp...
Orientations-Social
 Ensuring in sustainability in equity and access to
landuse and other resources (credit, education,
h...
Orientations-Environment
1. Mitigation
 Sustainable management of natural resources

 Strengthening capacity in early wa...
2. Adaptation
Orientations-Environment
 Manure, residue, waste management;
 Farming technology improvement (C, N control...
MEASURES
• Sector Production Restructuring with
emphasis on high-value and deep
processing
• Science and Technology
• Infr...
SECTOR RESTRUCTURING
TO 2020
CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING
 Realizing relative advantages of market, products and
agro-climatic condition;
 Post har...
CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (2)

1. Rice: Sustaining at area of 3.8 mil.ha (7.0 mil ha of
planted area), Production of ...
CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (3)

1. Coffee: Sustaining at 0.5 mil.ha; replanting
150,000ha
- Postharvest technology dev...
CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (4)

3. Cashewnut: 0.4 mil. ha; Varieties
improvement; Intensive farming
4. Black pepper: 5...
ANIMAL PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING
 Growth at 7–8 %/year, the share in
agricultural GDP: 21,5%)
 Transfer from small and di...
FISHERY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING
 Growth at 11%/years; the share in
agricultural GDP: 335%
 Increase the share of aquacu...
FORESTRY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING
 Growth at 4%/years;
 Forest coverage: 42-45%
 Economic forest intensification
 Tran...
MESSAGES
• VN is and still will be Agriculture-based
economy.
• Key products are for export, so need to
improve competitiv...
VIETNAM-CIAT
COLLABORATION
THROUGH PICTURES
CIAT DG, Dr. Joachim Voss at VAAS
45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi
MARD Vice Minister, Dr. Bui Ba Bong at
45th CIAT Anniversary
45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi
Inauguration of CIAT Regional Office at
AGI/VAAS
CIAT DG, Dr. Ruben Echeverria and CIAT Team at VAAS
Cassava Network Meeting in Hanoi
CIAT BOT in Hanoi
Dr. CIAT Invalid, Dr. Rod Lefroy
on Field Day
Medal Awarding for Dr. Rod Lefroy at
45th CIAT Anniversary
CIAT DDG, Dr.Albin Hubscher and Reginal Director, Dr.
Rod Lefroy at VAAS
Bo  agriculture restructuring (ciat meeting 20-feb2014-hn)
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  • NLTS đã có sự tăng trưởng khá đều đặn: 4%/năm. Tuy nhiên, so với tốc độ tăng trưởng của khu vực công nghiệp và dịch vụ thì ngành NLTS đang có nguy cơ bị tụt hậu: 10,1%/năm và 6,5%/năm. Tỷ trọng của NLTS trong tổng GDP giảm sút nhanh chóng từ 26,2% năm 1995 xuống chỉ còn 17,9% năm 2007.
    Trong giai đoạn 1995-2007, GDP NLTS tăng từ mức 51 nghìn tỷ đồng lên 82 nghìn tỷ đồng (tăng khoảng 1,6 lần), thì GDP của ngành CN-XD tăng lên từ mức 58 nghìn tỷ đồng (có xuất phát điểm khá tương đương với ngành NLTS) lên 193 nghìn tỷ đồng (hơn gấp 3 lần), và GDP của ngành dịch vụ từ 86 nghìn tỷ lên 182 nghìn tỷ (gấp hơn 2 lần).
    Trong khi đó, vốn đầu tư xã hội cho NLTS mặc dù có tăng (từ 9 nghìn tỷ năm 1995 lên trên 20 nghìn tỷ năm 2007, tăng khoảng 2,3 lần) nhưng tỷ lệ tăng rất thấp so với các ngành công nghiệp (1995: 22 nghìn tỷ đồng, 2007: 136 nghìn tỷ đồng, tăng gấp 6,2 lần) và dịch vụ (1995: 34 nghìn tỷ đông, 2007: 150 nghìn tỷ đồng, tăng gấp 4,4 lần).
    Năm 2007 NLTS chỉ chiếm 6,7% so với tổng đầu tư cho các ngành kinh tế, và con số này chỉ bằng 1/3 so với lượng GDP do NLTS tạo ra cho nền kinh tế.
  • Kim ngạch xuất khẩu Nông sản của VN xếp thứ 15 TG
  • Bo agriculture restructuring (ciat meeting 20-feb2014-hn)

    1. 1. PRIORITIES FOR VIETNAM AGRICULTURE – SIMILARITIES AND DIFFERENCES WITH THE REGION Nguyen Van Bo, VAAS Planning Meeting for CIAT Asia Hanoi, 20 February 2014
    2. 2. GENERAL INFORMATION ON VN AGRICULTURE COMPARED WITH SELECTED ASEAN COUNTRIES
    3. 3. VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (1) Country Indonesia Myanmar Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Laos Cambodia Area Populat. Agr. Irrigated 1000ha millions land,% 1000ha 181,157 65,351 51,089 32,866 31,007 29,817 23,080 17,652 246.9 30.1 52.8 19.2 66.8 41.2 29.2 24.0 88.8 (3) 35.0 (2) 96.7 40.6 6.6 10.3 14.9 32.0 Source: World Factbook (www.cia.gov) 6,722 2,250 6,415 365 4,600 1,525 300 285
    4. 4. VIET NAM AND ASEAN, 2013 (2) Country Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Philippines Vietnam Cambodia Laos GDP US Bill. 878.2 366.0 303.5 250.2 141.7 (5) 14.1 9.3 GDP/cap USD Agr.value % GDP 3,557 14.0 5,480 12.0 10,381 11.0 2,587 12.0 1,596 (5) 22.0 (5) 946 36.0 1,399 75.1 Source: World Factbook (www.cia.gov)
    5. 5. Trade and FDI, Millions USSD Country Total Trade. FDI Singapore 775,153 63,997 Thailand 458,904 7,778 Malaysia 415,722 12,001 Indonesia 380,932 19,242 Vietnam 199,852 7,430 Philippines 111,752 1,262 Myanmar 14,925 - Brunei 14,822 1,208 Cambodia 12,844 892 3,956 301 2,045,731 114,111 Laos ASEAN Source: Richard Silberglitt. Symposium on Integrated Foresight for Sustainable Economic Development and Eco-Resilience in ASEAN Countries. Thailand, 1– 2 October 2013
    6. 6. Security index score (1-5) Country Food Water Energy Singapore 4.0 3.4 4.5 Brunei 3.5 3.0 4.0 Malaysia 3.2 3.4 4.0 Thailand 3.0 2.2 4.0 Vietnam 2.4 1.8 1.5 Indonesia 2.3 2.6 2.5 Phillipines 2.3 2.2 1.5 Myanmar 2.0 2.2 3.0 Laos 1.8 2.6 2.0 Cambodia 1.6 1.6 3.0 Source: Richard Silberglitt. Symposium on Integrated Foresight for Sustainable Economic Development and Eco-Resilience in ASEAN Countries. Thailand, 1– 2 October 2013
    7. 7. CROPS PRODUCTION, 2013 Crops Area 1000ha Production 1000 tons Export 1000 tons Mil.USD Rice 7,899.9 44,076.1 6,653(-17.3%) 3,730 (-27.3) Maize 1,157.5 5151.1 - - Coffee 635.2 1,322.1 1,308 (-15.5) 2,740 (-15.4) Rubber 974.1 934.5 1,023 (+6.5) 2,856 (-11.7) Tea (Fresh) 130.0 939.4 148 (-0.4%) Cashew 310.0 285.0 264 (+19.9) 1,654 (+12.6) Pepper 62.6 123.4 134 (+14.5) 899 (+13.2) Cassava 547.8 9,740.0 3,142 (-15.7) 1,102 (-18.5) Veget. 834.5 14,815.0 Fruit MARD, 2014 784.0 8,047.0 230 (+0.2) 1,095 (+32.0)
    8. 8. ANIMAL PRODUCTION 2012 • • • • • • • • Pigs: 26.25 mil (- 0.90%) Poultry: 314.75 mil. (+ 3.0%) Buffoloes: 2.56 mil. (- 2.6%) Beef cattle: 5.16 mil. (- 0.7%) Diary cattle: 186,300 (+11.6%) Meat Pricduction: 4,36 miltons (+1.5%), Milk: 425,400 tons (+10.5%) Animal Feed Eq.: 13.6 mil tons (+7.1)
    9. 9. Agriculture Export Value, Mil. USD Sectors Crops Prod. Forestry Fishery Others (Milk, Veget. oils, Sugar 2012 14,997 4,932 6,154 1,458 2013 13,139 5,805 6,167 Export Total Import Total Export Surplus 27,541 16,937 10,604 27,764 18,945 8,819 Source: MARD, 2013-2014
    10. 10. PROBLEMS FACING
    11. 11. CHALLENGES IN AGRICULTURE 1. Limited in Agricultural Land (World average: 1.20 ha/capita; Vietnam: 0.104ha or 8.7% and reducing) 2. Population Pressure. 90 mil. (1/11/2013). VN ranking 14th in population and 65th in natural area 3. Productivity Ceiling 4. Product Quality and Safety 5. High Production Cost 6. Relatively low competitiveness
    12. 12. GDP Growth in Agriculture Period 1995-2000 % 4.01 2001-2005 3.83 2006-2010 3.30 Source: GSO
    13. 13. Rice Productivity Growth, % 1990-95 1996-2000 2011-05 2006-2010 3.05 2.84 2.91 1.72 Source: GSO
    14. 14. Agricultural productivity in selected countries Unit: USD/person/year
    15. 15. Structure of Agricultural Land Area/Household in 2010 Source: CAP based on VLSS 2010
    16. 16. Export Price, USD/tons Rice 2011 514 2012 461 2013 410 (- 10.3% vs 2011) (- 11.1% vs 2012) Rubber 3,954 2,792 2,356 (- 29.4% vs 2011) (- 15.6% vs 2012) Coffee 2,047 2,122 1,500 (+ 3.7% vs 2011) (- 29.3% vs 2012) Source: Estimated from MARD reports, 2013
    17. 17. Investment Structure Nguồn : Ước lượng từ số liệu của TCTK 17
    18. 18. Number of Enterprises 2000-2008 Source: GSO
    19. 19. Value Chain of Tea: % of retail Price 7% 100% 90% 80% 5% 3% 3% 1% 2% 1% 1% Người trồng chè 70% Người chế biến trong nước 60% Thương gia trong nước 50% 40% 84% 92% Nhà xuất khẩu trong nước Giá trị ở nước ngoài 30% 20% 10% 0% Tesco Own Label Twinings leaf tea Source: 20 years of Science and Technology Development (MARD, 2006)
    20. 20. Value added per Agricultural labour (US$; Average for 2006-2008 ) IPSARD, 2012
    21. 21. Climate Change Impacts on Vietnam Most impacted countries: % Land Area 1m SLR 14 12 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 sh e a B a ng la d ai c ia m m b Ja u G a e li er ze to R ic o C ub a r B ta Q a P B a ha m a s 0 Ba ha m a Be ni n 10 au rit a Su nia ri n am G e uy an a G uia n Tu a nis ia 10 M 12 Most impacted countries: % Population 1m SLR According to WB, Vietnam is among 5 countries most impacted by Climate Change.
    22. 22. Vietnam: Climate Change 1. Sea level Raise: Flood, Saltwater intrusion Over the past fifty years, sea level has increased by about 20 cm (2cm/decade) 1. Temperature increase: Drought, Disease modification, cropping pattern change Over the past 50 years, (1958-2007), annual average temperatures increased by about 0.5 to 0.7oC (+0.10C/decade)
    23. 23. VN AGRICULTURE- SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGS - Food Security at national level - Good irrigation works - Top raking in export of Agricultural Products - Hard working farmers OPPORTUNITIES - Global integration (WTO, TPP…) - New land policy and Rural development - S-T development -Better condition for Small and medium enterprises development -- Strong commitment of Government for Agriculture development WEAKNESSES Quantitative production Low effectiveness Low relative competitiveness Low percentage of deep processing Quality and food safety concern CHALLENGES - Sector growth stagnation - Small scale production - Limitation and degradation of natural resources - Food insecurity at household level - Less enterprises investing in agriculture - Severe competition in international market - Climate change - Water resources conflict - Widening gap between the rich and the poor; urban and rural - Higher requirement of market for quality and safety
    24. 24. ORIENTATIONS
    25. 25. OVERALL TARGETS A. Sustainable Agriculture B. Prosperous Rural Areas C. Wealthy Farmers
    26. 26. NEW VISSION FOR AGRICULTURE Every Decade: - Production Growth increase by 20%, ensuring food security at national and household levels - Poverty reduced by 20% - GHG emission reduced by 20%
    27. 27. PRIORITIES • Food Security and safety • Natural disaster mitigation and Environment protection • Human Resources Development
    28. 28. - GDP Growth: OBJECTIVES • 2,6 – 3,0 %/year for 2011 – 2015 • 3,5 – 4,0 %/year for 2016 – 2020 – By 2020, farmers income increases by 2,5 times – Poverty at 12% with reduction by 2% per year – % of Villages meeting criteria of new rural model: 20% by 2015 and 50% by 2020 – Forest coverage increase up to 42-43% (2015) and 45% (2020). – Agricultural labour: < 46%
    29. 29. Orientations-Economic - Priority for development of high competitive sector and commodities – Higher investment for post harvest technology and processing – Value added improvement; – Rural industry development – Product quality and food safety – Farmers income improvement
    30. 30. VN Export Value VS Global, Mil. USD Sectors Fruit-Veget Flowers Rice Coffee Rubber Tea Cashew nut Pepper Total Global Import Value, 2010 97,900 25,000 16,818 7,548 7,488 6,370 1,719 1,761 1,361,853 VN Export Value, 2012 805 (0.82%) 60 (0.24%) 3,730 (22.2%) 3,740 (49.5%) 2,850 (38.1%) 227 (3.56%) 1,483 (86.3%) 802 (45.5%) 14,997 (1,10%)
    31. 31. Orientations-Social  Ensuring in sustainability in equity and access to landuse and other resources (credit, education, healthcare, …)  Rural infrastructure improvement and public service  Improvement food security at household level  Approaching to nutrition security  Policy for the poors  Labour’s skill training  Development rural enterprises
    32. 32. Orientations-Environment 1. Mitigation  Sustainable management of natural resources  Strengthening capacity in early warning of natural disasters and disease  Green growth and biodiversity conservation  GHG Emission reduction
    33. 33. 2. Adaptation Orientations-Environment  Manure, residue, waste management;  Farming technology improvement (C, N control)  Varieties improvement: Flood, salt, heat, disease tolerance  Bioenergy (Bioethanol/ Diesel, Biochar)
    34. 34. MEASURES • Sector Production Restructuring with emphasis on high-value and deep processing • Science and Technology • Infrastruction improvement • International Integration • Administration Governance Improvement
    35. 35. SECTOR RESTRUCTURING TO 2020
    36. 36. CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Realizing relative advantages of market, products and agro-climatic condition;  Post harvest and deep processing improvement  S-T development with focusing on high-tech, new crop varieties development, VietGAP.  Development of trade mark and labelling  Market development
    37. 37. CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (2) 1. Rice: Sustaining at area of 3.8 mil.ha (7.0 mil ha of planted area), Production of 45 mil. Tons of paddy. High atention to high quality, tolerant to abiotic and biotic stresses. 2. Maize: Meeting domestic demand of 8.5 mil tons (now: 4.8 mil. tons)
    38. 38. CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (3) 1. Coffee: Sustaining at 0.5 mil.ha; replanting 150,000ha - Postharvest technology development - Deep processing and - Trade mark development 2. Rubber: 0.8 mil. ha; Intensive farming
    39. 39. CROPS PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING (4) 3. Cashewnut: 0.4 mil. ha; Varieties improvement; Intensive farming 4. Black pepper: 50,000 ha; Varieties improvement, Disease management 5. Tea: 140,000 ha, Varieties improvement; Merchanization in harvesting; Diversification of products
    40. 40. ANIMAL PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Growth at 7–8 %/year, the share in agricultural GDP: 21,5%)  Transfer from small and dissected scale to medium and industrial scale.  Moving animal farms from high density population to lower population density  Relative animal structure to relative increase poultry and diary cattle.  Animal feed crops toward replacing import
    41. 41. FISHERY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Growth at 11%/years; the share in agricultural GDP: 335%  Increase the share of aquaculture and offshore catching  Intensification of key products  Quality and Safety meeting market standard  Structure improvement management and environment
    42. 42. FORESTRY PRODUCTION RESTRUCTURING  Growth at 4%/years;  Forest coverage: 42-45%  Economic forest intensification  Transfer from fast growing forest tree to higher wood quality  Strengthening wood processing  Agro-forestry development  Improving income for farmers
    43. 43. MESSAGES • VN is and still will be Agriculture-based economy. • Key products are for export, so need to improve competitiveness • Higher profit from farming • Higher income for farmers • Harmonizing Agriculture-Rural and Farmers Development
    44. 44. VIETNAM-CIAT COLLABORATION THROUGH PICTURES
    45. 45. CIAT DG, Dr. Joachim Voss at VAAS
    46. 46. 45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi
    47. 47. MARD Vice Minister, Dr. Bui Ba Bong at 45th CIAT Anniversary
    48. 48. 45th CIAT Anniversary in Hanoi
    49. 49. Inauguration of CIAT Regional Office at AGI/VAAS
    50. 50. CIAT DG, Dr. Ruben Echeverria and CIAT Team at VAAS
    51. 51. Cassava Network Meeting in Hanoi
    52. 52. CIAT BOT in Hanoi
    53. 53. Dr. CIAT Invalid, Dr. Rod Lefroy on Field Day
    54. 54. Medal Awarding for Dr. Rod Lefroy at 45th CIAT Anniversary
    55. 55. CIAT DDG, Dr.Albin Hubscher and Reginal Director, Dr. Rod Lefroy at VAAS

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