Climate change and agriculture: How models can guide our adaptation strategies Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Edward Guevara...
Contents <ul><li>About climate change and predictive models </li></ul><ul><li>Global level changes (agriculture and biodiv...
 
 
Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agri...
How can we be sure that it is changing?
 
 
Arctic Ice is Melting
In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. <ul><li>… .but how? </li></ul>
Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biol...
 
So, what do they say?
 
Changes in rainfall…
CIAT’s Data <ul><li>18 GCM models to 2050, 9 to 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Different scenarios, A1b, B1, commit </li></ul><ul>...
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-...
BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-...
 
The Impacts on Crop Suitability
The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic co...
Agricultural systems analysis <ul><li>50 target crops selected based on area harvested in FAOSTAT </li></ul>
Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
Message 1 Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of food distribution are exacerbated
But what about land-use and biodiversity distribution in 2050?
The current situation <ul><li>Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national) </li></ul>
Results: protected areas per region Current extent of  in situ  conservation Global biodiversity currently well conserved
Modeling approach <ul><li>Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Macoubea guianensis  Aubl.: food for...
Current and future predicted species richness <ul><li>Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central...
Results: changes in species richness <ul><li>Null migration: losses everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited migration: most...
Results: changes in species richness <ul><li>Null migration: losses everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited migration: most...
Results:  in situ  conservation under the context of CC <ul><li>No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dis...
Message 2 There will be greater pressure on land resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable,...
Minimising impacts:  Breeding for beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris  L.) towards 2020
How are beans standing up currently? Parameters determined based on statistical analysis of current bean growing environme...
What will likely happen? 2020 – A2 2020 – A2 - changes
GCM Uncertainties COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION PERCENT OF MODELS WITH AGREED DIRECTION
What are the major climatic constraints for bean production? <ul><li>Most of the  suitable  environments are likely to be ...
Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought...
Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance Cold tolerance Heat tolerance Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would b...
Impacts on production of cassava
Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints <ul><li>Grey areas are the crop’s main niche.  </li></ul>Blue areas cons...
Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050...
…… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought...
…… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat t...
Pest and Disease Impacts
Impacts on whitefly to 2020
Message 3 Global impacts can be addressed in many cases through existing diversity, or through crop improvement, but we mu...
Moving more local… <ul><li>Coffee in Colombia and Central America </li></ul>
Suitability in Cauca <ul><li>Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>The Cauca case: reduce...
 
Adaptation Options Management New markets Alternatives to coffee
Message 4 Locally, some significant upheavals could occur in terms of economies, cultures, and land-use patterns
But it is worse in Central America
 
 
 
 
 
So what do we do?
Models to support adaptation roadmaps <ul><li>What to do, how, where, and when? </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the problem </l...
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Andy J Climate Change Models Can Guide Our Adaptation Strategies Supagro Nov 2009

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How models can guide our adaptation actions, presented in Supagro on 13th november, 2009 in Montpellier, by Andy Jarvis.

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  • What we need - mythic solution sequester carbon, reduce soil loss, stop slash and burn, reduce emissions - food security, stop pollution etc.
  • How are we going to estimate the effects of climate change on agriculture unless we’re going to wait for it to happen? Past changes are not really a good estimator. The little ice age starting in 1450 or thereabouts was a major event, completely changing the life styles and agriculture in Europe. It is piddling compared with what we are likely to see in the next 20 to 50 years. We must therefore rely on modeling situations that we have never before seen.
  • Andy J Climate Change Models Can Guide Our Adaptation Strategies Supagro Nov 2009

    1. 1. Climate change and agriculture: How models can guide our adaptation strategies Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Edward Guevara, Peter Laderach and Emmanuel Zapata Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT
    2. 2. Contents <ul><li>About climate change and predictive models </li></ul><ul><li>Global level changes (agriculture and biodiversity)….. </li></ul><ul><li>… to regional crop specific changes…. </li></ul><ul><li>… to local adaptation options…. </li></ul><ul><li>Defining adaptation roadmaps </li></ul>
    3. 5. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
    4. 6. How can we be sure that it is changing?
    5. 9. Arctic Ice is Melting
    6. 10. In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. <ul><li>… .but how? </li></ul>
    7. 11. Global Climate Models (GCMs) <ul><li>21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology </li></ul><ul><li>Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future </li></ul><ul><li>Run using different emissions scenarios </li></ul>
    8. 13. So, what do they say?
    9. 15. Changes in rainfall…
    10. 16. CIAT’s Data <ul><li>18 GCM models to 2050, 9 to 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Different scenarios, A1b, B1, commit </li></ul><ul><li>Downscaled using empirical methods </li></ul>http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/
    11. 17. BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3
    12. 18. BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3
    13. 20. The Impacts on Crop Suitability
    14. 21. The Model: EcoCrop <ul><li>So, how does it work? </li></ul>It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…
    15. 22. Agricultural systems analysis <ul><li>50 target crops selected based on area harvested in FAOSTAT </li></ul>
    16. 23. Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
    17. 24. Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain
    18. 25. Message 1 Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of food distribution are exacerbated
    19. 26. But what about land-use and biodiversity distribution in 2050?
    20. 27. The current situation <ul><li>Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national) </li></ul>
    21. 28. Results: protected areas per region Current extent of in situ conservation Global biodiversity currently well conserved
    22. 29. Modeling approach <ul><li>Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon </li></ul></ul>Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION Potential habitat expansion NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
    23. 30. Current and future predicted species richness <ul><li>Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa </li></ul><ul><li>Displacement and loss of niches </li></ul>CURRENT NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION
    24. 31. Results: changes in species richness <ul><li>Null migration: losses everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited migration: mostly displacement </li></ul>
    25. 32. Results: changes in species richness <ul><li>Null migration: losses everywhere </li></ul><ul><li>Unlimited migration: mostly displacement </li></ul>UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION
    26. 33. Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC <ul><li>No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions </li></ul>
    27. 34. Message 2 There will be greater pressure on land resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable, and as we face massive biodiversity loss
    28. 35. Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) towards 2020
    29. 36. How are beans standing up currently? Parameters determined based on statistical analysis of current bean growing environments from the Africa and LAC Bean Atlases.
    30. 37. What will likely happen? 2020 – A2 2020 – A2 - changes
    31. 38. GCM Uncertainties COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION PERCENT OF MODELS WITH AGREED DIRECTION
    32. 39. What are the major climatic constraints for bean production? <ul><li>Most of the suitable environments are likely to be limited by temperatures (orange) </li></ul>
    33. 40. Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought tolerance improvement to 2020s Drought tolerance Waterlogging tolerance
    34. 41. Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance Cold tolerance Heat tolerance Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would benefit from heat tolerance improvement to 2020s
    35. 42. Impacts on production of cassava
    36. 43. Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints <ul><li>Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. </li></ul>Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature
    37. 44. Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts
    38. 45. …… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
    39. 46. …… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava
    40. 47. Pest and Disease Impacts
    41. 48. Impacts on whitefly to 2020
    42. 49. Message 3 Global impacts can be addressed in many cases through existing diversity, or through crop improvement, but we must start planning now
    43. 50. Moving more local… <ul><li>Coffee in Colombia and Central America </li></ul>
    44. 51. Suitability in Cauca <ul><li>Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 </li></ul><ul><li>The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities. </li></ul>MECETA
    45. 53. Adaptation Options Management New markets Alternatives to coffee
    46. 54. Message 4 Locally, some significant upheavals could occur in terms of economies, cultures, and land-use patterns
    47. 55. But it is worse in Central America
    48. 61. So what do we do?
    49. 62. Models to support adaptation roadmaps <ul><li>What to do, how, where, and when? </li></ul><ul><li>Describe the problem </li></ul><ul><li>Ex ante analysis of potential benefits from an action </li></ul><ul><li>Cost benefit analysis of adaptation options </li></ul><ul><li>Supporting actions on the ground, through participatory, community based processes </li></ul><ul><li>Ensure a holistic view: adaptation of agriculture and environment </li></ul>
    50. 63. [email_address]
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