Climate change and agriculture: How models can guide our adaptation strategies Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Edward Guevara, Peter Laderach and Emmanuel Zapata Program Leader, Decision and Policy Analysis, CIAT

Contents About climate change and predictive models Global level changes (agriculture and biodiversity)….. … to regional crop specific changes…. … to local adaptation options…. Defining adaptation roadmaps

About climate change and predictive models

Global level changes (agriculture and biodiversity)…..

… to regional crop specific changes….

… to local adaptation options….

Defining adaptation roadmaps

Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008

How can we be sure that it is changing?

Arctic Ice is Melting

In order to prepare, we need to know what to prepare for…. … .but how?

… .but how?

Global Climate Models (GCMs) 21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future Run using different emissions scenarios

21 global climate models in the world, based on atmospheric sciences, chemistry, biology, and a touch of astrology

Run from the past to present to calibrate, then into the future

Run using different emissions scenarios

So, what do they say?

Changes in rainfall…

CIAT’s Data 18 GCM models to 2050, 9 to 2020 Different scenarios, A1b, B1, commit Downscaled using empirical methods http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/

18 GCM models to 2050, 9 to 2020

Different scenarios, A1b, B1, commit

Downscaled using empirical methods

BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

BCCR-BCM2.0 CCCMA-CGCM2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1 T47 CCCMA-CGCM3.1-T63 CNRM-CM3 IAP-FGOALS-1.0G GISS-AOM GFDL-CM2.1 GFDL-CM2.0 CSIRO-MK3.0 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3.2-HIRES MIROC3.2-MEDRES MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2.3.2A NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3

The Impacts on Crop Suitability

The Model: EcoCrop So, how does it work? It evaluates on monthly basis if there are adequate climatic conditions within a growing season for temperature and precipitation… … and calculates the climatic suitability of the resulting interaction between rainfall and temperature…

So, how does it work?

Agricultural systems analysis 50 target crops selected based on area harvested in FAOSTAT

50 target crops selected based on area harvested in FAOSTAT

Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s

Winners and losers Number of crops with more than 5% loss Number of crops with more than 5% gain

Message 1 Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of food distribution are exacerbated

But what about land-use and biodiversity distribution in 2050?

The current situation Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national)

Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8% international, 10% national)

Results: protected areas per region Current extent of in situ conservation Global biodiversity currently well conserved

Modeling approach Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon Data harvesting from GBIF Building the presence model Projecting on future climates NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION Potential habitat expansion NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION

Aplying the maximum entropy algorithm

Macoubea guianensis Aubl.: food for rural indigenous communities in the Amazon

Current and future predicted species richness Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa Displacement and loss of niches CURRENT NULL MIGRATION UNLIMITED MIGRATION

Important hotspots in Latin America, Europe, Australasia and Central Africa

Displacement and loss of niches

Results: changes in species richness Null migration: losses everywhere Unlimited migration: mostly displacement

Null migration: losses everywhere

Unlimited migration: mostly displacement

Results: changes in species richness Null migration: losses everywhere Unlimited migration: mostly displacement UNLIMITED MIGRATION NULL MIGRATION

Null migration: losses everywhere

Unlimited migration: mostly displacement

Results: in situ conservation under the context of CC No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions

No matter if the best ‘adaptation’ scenario (unlimited dispersal) is chosen, negatives are expected in most regions

Message 2 There will be greater pressure on land resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable, and as we face massive biodiversity loss

Minimising impacts: Breeding for beans ( Phaseolus vulgaris L.) towards 2020

How are beans standing up currently? Parameters determined based on statistical analysis of current bean growing environments from the Africa and LAC Bean Atlases.

What will likely happen? 2020 – A2 2020 – A2 - changes

GCM Uncertainties COEFFICIENT OF VARIATION PERCENT OF MODELS WITH AGREED DIRECTION

What are the major climatic constraints for bean production? Most of the suitable environments are likely to be limited by temperatures (orange)

Most of the suitable environments are likely to be limited by temperatures (orange)

Technology options: breeding for drought and waterlogging tolerance Some 22.8% (3.8 million ha) would benefit from drought tolerance improvement to 2020s Drought tolerance Waterlogging tolerance

Technology options: breeding for heat and cold tolerance Cold tolerance Heat tolerance Some 42.7% (7.2 million ha) would benefit from heat tolerance improvement to 2020s

Impacts on production of cassava

Worldwide cassava production climatic constraints Grey areas are the crop’s main niche. Blue areas constrained by precipitation Yellow-orange constrained by temperature

Grey areas are the crop’s main niche.

Impact of climate change on cassava suitable environments Global cassava suitability will increase 5.1% on average by 2050… but many areas of Latin America suffer negative impacts

…… .and for Latin America? Drought or flooding tolerance 30% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced drought or flooding tolerance 1.6m Ha still suffering climatic constraint 2.23m Ha of current production 2.1m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

…… .and for Latin America? Heat or cold tolerance 27% of current cassava fields would benefit from enhanced cold or heat tolerance 2.23m Ha of current production 2.2m Ha of new land would become suitable for cassava

Pest and Disease Impacts

Impacts on whitefly to 2020

Message 3 Global impacts can be addressed in many cases through existing diversity, or through crop improvement, but we must start planning now

Moving more local… Coffee in Colombia and Central America

Coffee in Colombia and Central America

Suitability in Cauca Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities. MECETA

Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050

The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.

Adaptation Options Management New markets Alternatives to coffee

Message 4 Locally, some significant upheavals could occur in terms of economies, cultures, and land-use patterns

But it is worse in Central America

So what do we do?

Models to support adaptation roadmaps What to do, how, where, and when? Describe the problem Ex ante analysis of potential benefits from an action Cost benefit analysis of adaptation options Supporting actions on the ground, through participatory, community based processes Ensure a holistic view: adaptation of agriculture and environment

What to do, how, where, and when?

Describe the problem

Ex ante analysis of potential benefits from an action

Cost benefit analysis of adaptation options

Supporting actions on the ground, through participatory, community based processes

Ensure a holistic view: adaptation of agriculture and environment

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