Andy J Cambio ClimáTico En Cafetales Pereira Julio 2009

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Presentation on coffee and climate change in Colombia from the Decision and Policy Analysis Program of CIAT.

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Andy J Cambio ClimáTico En Cafetales Pereira Julio 2009

  1. 1. Cambio climático y café en Colombia Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Anton Eitzinger, Peter Laderach
  2. 2. Contenido • Acerca de cambio climatico y los modelos GCM • El futuro de Risaralda • Tres ejemplos de impactos de cambio climatico en el café en diferentes regions • Lo que se debe hacer
  3. 3. Sources of Agricultural Greenhouse Gases excluding land use change Mt CO2-eq Source: Cool farming: Climate impacts of agriculture and mitigation potential, Greenpeace, 07 January 2008
  4. 4. Porque tan seguros que el clima esta cambiando?
  5. 5. Arctic Ice is Melting
  6. 6. Caso 2 : Adaptación a un futuro específico Hay que saber el futuro... pero ¿cómo?
  7. 7. Modelos GCM : “Global Climate Models” • 21 “global climate models” (GCMs) basados en ciencias atmosféricas, química, física, biología, y, dependiendo de las creencias, algo de astrología • Se corre desde el pasado hasta el futuro • Hay diferentes escenarios de emisiones de gases
  8. 8. Entonces, ¿qué es lo que dicen? Variaciones en la temperatura de la superficie de la tierra: de 1000 a 2100
  9. 9. Britanicos Canadienses
  10. 10. Trayectorios y riesgos 4.0 3.5 2099 Modeling time-limit 3.0 Temperature anomaly (ºC) 2.5 2.0 2050 Modeling time-limit 1.5 2020 Modeling 1.0 time-limit 0.5 1870 Baseline 0.0 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Precipitation anomaly (mm) Haiti Cuba Mexico Central African Republic Venezuela Myanmar Burma Burundi Japan Vanuatu China Colombia Costa Rica Ecuador
  11. 11. Datos de CIAT • 18 modelos para 2050, 9 para 2020 • Diferentes escenarios, A1b, B1, commit • Downscaled usando metodos estadisticos http://gisweb.ciat.cgiar.org/GCMPage/home.html
  12. 12. Colombia y el mundo en cambio climático 2950 27.5 Colombia 2900 27.0 +8.1% 26.5 +3.1ºC Precipitación total anual (mm) 2850 Temperatura media anual (ºC) 2800 26.0 2750 25.5 2700 25.0 2650 24.5 2600 24.0 Temperatura media anual (ºC) Precipitación total anual (mm) Tendencia temporal 2550 Tendencia temporal 23.5 Intervalo de confianza (95%) Intervalo de confianza (95%) 2500 23.0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Año Año 810 12.0 Mundo 790 +14% 11.0 +4.5ºC Precipitación total anual (mm) Temperatura media anual (ºC) 770 10.0 750 730 9.0 710 8.0 690 Temperatura media anual (ºC) Precipitación total anual (mm) 7.0 Tendencia temporal 670 Tendencia temporal Intervalo de confianza (95%) Intervalo de confianza (95%) 650 6.0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 Año Año
  13. 13. Cambio en Cambio en Cambio en Incertidumbre Cambio en meses Region Departamento Temperatura estacionalidad de entre modelos Precipitacion consecutivos media precipitacion (StDev prec) secos Amazonas Amazonas 12 2.9 1.4 0 135 Amazonas Caqueta 138 2.7 -1.3 0 193 Amazonas Guania 55 2.9 -3.2 0 271 Amazonas Guaviare 72 2.8 -2.9 -1 209 Amazonas Putumayo 117 2.6 0.6 0 170 Andina Antioquia 18 2.1 1.3 0 129 Andina Boyaca 50 2.7 -3.9 -1 144 Andina Cundinamarca 152 2.6 -2.6 0 170 Andina Huila 51 2.4 1.0 0 144 Andina Norte de santander 73 2.8 -0.4 0 216 Andina Santander 51 2.7 -2.4 0 158 Andina Tolima 86 2.4 -3.1 0 148 Caribe Atlantico -74 2.2 -2.9 2 135 Caribe Bolivar 90 2.5 -1.8 0 242 Caribe Cesar -119 2.6 -1.3 0 160 Caribe Cordoba -11 2.3 -3.8 0 160 Caribe Guajira -69 2.2 -1.8 0 86 Caribe Magdalena -158 2.4 -1.8 0 153 Caribe Sucre 10 2.4 -4.1 -1 207 Eje Cafetero Caldas 252 2.4 -4.2 -1 174 Eje Cafetero Quindio 153 2.3 -4.1 -1 145 Eje Cafetero Risaralda 158 2.4 -3.5 -1 141 Llanos Arauca -13 2.9 -6.4 -1 188 Llanos Casanare 163 2.8 -5.7 -1 229 Llanos Meta 10 2.7 -5.4 -1 180 Llanos Vaupes 46 2.8 -1.4 0 192 Llanos Vichada 59 2.6 -2.6 0 152 Pacifico Choco -157 2.2 -1.2 0 148 Sur Occidente Cauca 172 2.3 -1.6 0 168 Sur Occidente Narino 155 2.2 -1.4 0 126 Sur Occidente Valle del Cauca 275 2.3 -5.1 -1 166
  14. 14. Que viene para Risaralda?
  15. 15. Climate General climate change description characteristic Average Climate Change Trends of Risaralda The rainfall decreases from 2751.9 millimeters to 2741.06 millimeters General Temperatures increase and the average increase is 0.77 ºC climate The mean daily temperature range decreases from 9.98 ºC to 9.88 ºC characteristics The maximum number of cumulative dry months increases from 0 months to 1 months The maximum temperature of the year increases from 24.33 ºC to 25.09 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 0.77 ºC Extreme The minimum temperature of the year increases from 13.36 ºC to 14.14 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 0.74 ºC conditions The wettest month gets wetter with 349.97 millimeters instead of 338.14 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 7.43 mm The driest month gets drier with 141.43 millimeters instead of 150.79 millimeters while the driest quarter gets drier by 15.73 mm Climate Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and more seasonal in precipitation Seasonality The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 0.85% Variability Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected between The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 5.67% models Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected 400 30 Current precipitation Future precipitation Future mean temperature Current mean temperature 350 Future maximum temperature 25 Current maximum temperature Future minimum temperature 300 Current minimum temperature 20 Precipitation (mm) 250 Temperature (ºC) 200 15 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 14 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org
  16. 16. Climate General climate change description characteristic Average Climate Change Trends of Risaralda The rainfall increases from 2753.76 millimeters to 2857.4 millimeters General Temperatures increase and the average increase is 2.21 ºC climate The mean daily temperature range increases from 9.91 ºC to 10.46 ºC characteristics The maximum number of cumulative dry months keeps constant in 0 months The maximum temperature of the year increases from 24.21 ºC to 27.37 ºC while the warmest quarter gets hotter by 2.45 ºC Extreme The minimum temperature of the year increases from 13.31 ºC to 15.06 ºC while the coldest quarter gets hotter by 2.05 ºC conditions The wettest month gets wetter with 343.72 millimeters instead of 337.91 millimeters, while the wettest quarter gets wetter by 23.62 mm The driest month gets wetter with 154.32 millimeters instead of 150.3 millimeters while the driest quarter gets wetter by 33.43 mm Climate Overall this climate becomes more seasonal in terms of variability through the year in temperature and less seasonal in precipitation Seasonality The coefficient of variation of temperature predictions between models is 4.27% Variability Temperature predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected between The coefficient of variation of precipitation predictions between models is 5.09% models Precipitation predictions were uniform between models and thus no outliers were detected 400 30 Current precipitation Future precipitation Future mean temperature Current mean temperature 350 Future maximum temperature 25 Current maximum temperature Future minimum temperature 300 Current minimum temperature 20 Precipitation (mm) 250 Temperature (ºC) 200 15 150 10 100 5 50 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month These results are based on the 2050 climate compared with the 1960-2000 climate. Future climate data is derived from 14 GCM models from the 3th (2001) and the 4th (2007) IPCC assessment, run under the A2a scenario (business as usual). Further information please check the website http://www.ipcc-data.org
  17. 17. Site-specific monthly coefficient of variation using 18 GCM models (IPCC, 2007) for precipitation and temperature 12 14 12 10 Precipitation coefficient of variation (%) Temperature coefficient of variation (%) 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Precipitation Mean temperature Maximum temperature Minimum temperature
  18. 18. Climas mueven hacia arriba Tmedia Tmedia Tmedia Ppt total Ppt total Cambio Rango anual anual anual anual anual ppt total Altitudinal cambio actual futuro actual futuro (%) (ºC) 190-500 25.54 27.70 2.16 5891 6002 1.88 501-1000 23.47 25.66 2.19 3490 3597 3.04 1000-1500 21.29 23.50 2.21 2537 2641 4.10 1500-2000 18.36 20.58 2.22 2519 2622 4.08 2000-2500 15.60 17.82 2.22 2555 2657 4.00 2500-3000 13.33 15.54 2.21 2471 2575 4.20 Temperatura media reduce por 0.51oC por cada 100m. Un cambio de 2.2oC equivale a una diferencia de 440m.
  19. 19. En conclusión • Aumento de temperatura de 0.8oC a 2020, y 2.2oC a 2050, equivalente a 440m • Incremento en el rango durante el día – noches mas fríos, medio día mas caliente • Tendencia hacia mas lluvia (100mm al año) • Son pronósticos, basados en modelos y existe incertidumbre
  20. 20. Pongámoslo en perspectiva • Café prefiere 19 a 21.5oC y 1,800 a 2,800mm de lluvia • Mes mas seco > 120mm • Mucha lluvia durante floración resulta en poca productividad – ej. 2008/2009 • Broca y roya le gusta lo seco y lo caliente (>21.5oC) • La sombra reduzca temperatura del cafetal por unos 1-2oC, pero reduzca también la variabilidad de temperaturas día a noche
  21. 21. Tres Ejemplos • El susto de café en Cauca • Colombia no esta tan mal – mira a America Central! • Una mala noticia para amantes del buen café
  22. 22. El susto de café en Cauca
  23. 23. Suitability in Cauca • Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050 • The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in MECETA geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.
  24. 24. Instrumentos de Adaptación Alternativas al cafe Manejo Nuevos mercados
  25. 25. Pero es peor en América Central
  26. 26. Una mala noticia para amantes del buen cafe
  27. 27. Impactos en calidad Cambio en acidez de café en México Veracruz tiene Denominacion de Origin
  28. 28. Impactos en café de alta acidez en Veracruz 1,2 1,0 0,8 Suitability 0,6 0,4 0,2 current 2050 0,0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 Altitude (m asl)
  29. 29. Entonces que hacemos? • No entramos en panico – cambio climatico mucho mas lento que dinamicas de mercado que enfrentamos dia a dia • Primero, analisis mas completo con expertos en café, y con mas cuidado con el asunto de incertidumbre y inclusion de pestes/enfermedades y costos de produccion • Identificar vulnerabilidades, y explorar opciones de adaptacion • En café, primero manejo (sombra, por ejemplo), segundo cambio varietal y tercero cambio de cultivo
  30. 30. GRACIAS!!!! a.jarvis@cgiar.org

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