Presentation delivered at the CIALCA international conference 'Challenges and Opportunities to the agricultural intensification of the humid highland systems of sub-Saharan Africa'. Kigali, Rwanda,
Presentation delivered at the CIALCA international conference 'Challenges and Opportunities to the agricultural intensification of the humid highland systems of sub-Saharan Africa'. Kigali, Rwanda, October 24-27 2011.
Acronyms OFR = On Farm Research FSR = Farming Systems Research AR – Action Research RRA = Rapid Rural Appraisal PRA = Participatory Rural Appraisal IRD = Integrated Rural Development PAR = Participative Action Research FFS = Farmer Field Schools AKIS = Agricultural Knowledge Information Systems PTD = Participatory Technology Development FTR = Farmer Participatory Research PI&D = Participatory Innovation and Development RDs = Recommendation Domains MBTs = Mother Baby Trials BBs = Best Bets FARMSCAPE = Farmers Advisors Researchers Models Simulation Communication and Performance Evaluation PPB = Participatory Plant Breeding SRLs = Sustainable Rural Livelihoods FS = Food Systems ERI = Enabling Rural Innovation INRM = Integrated Natural Resource Management IGNRM = Integrated Genetics and Natural Resource Management ARD = Agricultural Research for Development IS = Innovation Systems IP = Innovation Platforms PLAR = Participatory Learning and Action Research CCNR = Competing Claims on Natural Resources CASE = Competitive Agricultural Systems and Enterprises NIE = New Institutional Economics
Brian Keating, Peter Carberry and John Dixon Presentation to CIALCA Conference Kigali, Rwanda - October 2011 Sustainable intensification and the food security challenge Looking east, Machakos Hills, Kenya, 1986
Key Message 3 . Action is needed on all three fronts:
sustaining existing productivity,
filling the production gap.
Issue 4. What does looking back to the 20 th Century tell us about increasing production?
Between 1961 and 2008, food calories produced increased by 179% while population grew 117% Meat, Oilseeds, Fruit and Vegetables all increased relative to cereals. Tubers decreased Food production and population – looking back
Global agricultural production – looking back Net land under cultivation increased by 15% Yields increased 2-3 fold
Maintaining soil and water resources for direct productivity benefit
Avoiding off-site effects
Protecting the environment from negative impacts (e.g., nutrients, GHGs)
Maintaining biodiversity in situ
Nature conservation in agricultural landscapes
Maintaining biodiversity through land sparing
Reduced clearing of forests and grasslands through higher agricultural outputs on existing cultivated lands
A carbon constrained world ... GHGs loads on the atmosphere need to be reduced by 50-85% to limit global warming to under 2 o C in 2050 This implies a 3 to 6 fold reduction in GHG intensity for global agriculture in 2050, assuming agricultural output goes up 50% Land Clearing and Forestry 17% Agriculture 14%
N fertiliser use (in)efficiency - cereal production in China
Over-fertilisation in the order of 30-60%
Approximately 12 M tonnes excess N
Enough to supply approx 60 kgN/ha p.a. for all current arable land in sub-Saharan Africa
Adapted from Ju et al., 2009 Year Grain Prodn. N fertiliser PFP N M tonnes M tonnes kg/kg 1977 283 7.07 40.0 2005 484 26.21 18.5 % change 71% 271% -54%
N fertiliser use efficiency – USA cereal production
A success story
PFP N rising from 42 to 57 kg/kg over 20 yrs
Continuing yield increase
Flat N fertiliser inputs
From Cassman et al., 2002
Key Message 5. Intensification to date has not always been sustainable – with complex agriculture-environment interactions across scales. Future growth in agricultural output has to be achieved with enhanced “eco-efficiency”.
Issue 6 . The case for sustainable intensification in sub Saharan Africa (SSA)
Agricultural output in Africa is growing – but at half the pace of Asia and South America Changes in net agricultural production (1961–2007) Pretty et al (2010) Africa Asia Sth America Food Production (1961=100)
Per capita agricultural production has not increased in Africa since 1960 Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures Synthesis Report C9: Sustainable intensification in African agriculture – analysis of cases and common lessons Africa World South America Asia Africa Per Capita Food Production (1961=100)
Agricultural output is growing in Africa, but .... Africa: changes in net agricultural production (1961–2007) Pretty et al 2010 North and West Africa East Africa Sth. and Cent. Africa Food Production (1961=100)
20-40% declines in per capita food production in east, central and southern Africa Changes in per capita net agricultural production (1961–2007) Pretty et al (2010) East, Sth. and Central Africa Per Capita Food Production (1961=100)
Population is projected to double in sub Saharan Africa by 2050 UN Population Division. 2006 Revision. World Population Prospects . Sub Saharan Africa
(FAOSTAT and NARO, 2006/07) Yield Gap expressed as fraction of potential yield not being achieved Large yield gaps exist in SSA Crop Yield (t/ha) Yield (t/ha) Yield gap (%) Maize 1.5 7 79 Millet 1.8 5 64 Beans 0.5 3 83 Sweet potato 4.5 30 85 Cassava 12.7 50 75 Bananas 4.6 35 87
Maize yield gaps generally in the 60-80% range in SSA Based on national yields compared to farm demonstration plots Based on national yields compared to modelled potential yields
Significant potential for agricultural expansion in Africa Source: Hugo Ahlenius, UNEP/GRID-Arendal ) FAOSTAT, FAO Terrastat http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/current_and_potential_arable_ land_use_in_africa
Key Message 6 . Sub-Saharan Africa has both land expansion and intensification options. To achieve food security in 2050, some regions will need to double yields, others likely to also engage in land expansion.
Issue 7. What technical constraints are limiting crop productivity in sub Saharan Africa’s small farms ?
Sub Saharan Africa is home to a diverse range of farming systems
Soil fertility constrains in sub Saharan African smallholder farming systems
Strong evidence that soil fertility constraints are widespread
Drives inefficiencies throughout the farming system
Water use efficiency
Returns to labour investment
Nitrogen constraints very common
Other nutrients limiting in many situations
Often small areas of better fertility associated with animal or household areas.
Source: B Keating, CSIRO
Yield Reducing Factors Yield Reduction (kg/ha) Yield Reducing Factors: Mixed Maize Systems Africa Low Soil Fertility Low Soil Nitrogen Based on expert elicitation process, Dixon et al (pers comm.)
On-farm performance of seeds and fertilisers (micro-dosing) (Twomlow and Rohrbach 2006). 5% 50% 20% 80% Farmer practice
Key Message 7 . Improved soil fertility and nutrient supply are fundamental to any effort to intensify agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa
Issue 8 . Farming systems are complex and variable in space and time. Do we have the necessary tools and approaches?
A crowded history of research for development approaches 1980’s 1990’s 2000’s 1960’s 1970’s On Station Research Extension based technology transfer NIE FSR OFR RRA PRA PAR PTD FTR FFS PPB AKIS PI&D IRD BB’s MBTs SRLs FARMSCAPE INRM IGNRM IAR4D IS IP ERI CASE PLAR RDs CCNR AR ARD FS
Moving from descriptive to analytical approaches including the use of systems analysis and modelling tools
Increasing participation from a broader range of actors
Emergence of a value chain focus to complement an on-farm focus
Increasing recognition of the significance of enabling institutions and governance
Contested paradigms; hard systems vs soft systems; positivism vs constructivism; researcher knowledge / farmer knowledge
Greater recognition of social equity and gender issues
Different lenses through which intensification can be viewed Global and regional food supply Rural development and food security Livelihood opportunities, poverty reduction A farmer’s view of the farming system
Intensification not the only pathway out of poverty for smallholders
From: Dixon et al 2001. Farming Systems and Poverty Maize Mixed System, Africa A “rural livelihoods” lens on agricultural intensification Intensification 20% Diversification 30% Exit 10% Off-Farm Income 20% Farm Size 20%
The integration challenge ..... No one research activity area is likely to be able to make much progress on its own in the light of the 21 st Century drivers and needs.
Key Message 8 . A systematic approach to diagnosis and prescription of productivity performance and constraints is needed. Continued need for enhanced tools, approaches and capabilities for farming systems and value chain analysis across scales.
Issue 9 . Why has the intensification of sub-Saharan African agriculture lagged so far behind the rest of the world ?
Key Message 9 . Likely that the technical constraints cannot be solved without broad-based institutional innovation . How to stimulate such institutional development is the key challenge. The people in this room have an important role to play.