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2040 Regional Transportation PlanClimate Change &Transportation ResiliencySeptember 17, 2012        Chattanooga-Hamilton C...
Module 1: Welcome and IntroductionsAGENDA & WORKSHOP GOALS
Why put Adaptation in the RTP?• Transportation projects in the RTP will need to  withstand climate stressors• The transpor...
Region to Region                                           Community to Region      Within Community                      ...
Agenda1.   Introduction2.   Extreme Weather3.   Climate Futures4.   Transportation Resiliency5.   Critical Infrastructure•...
Module 2: Extreme WeatherTHE PAST AND PRESENT: WEATHER INTHE CHATTANOOGA REGION
Extreme Events in the Southeast•   Heavy Rainfall and Floods•   Extreme Heat and Cold•   Droughts•   Winter Storms•   Thun...
SE Regional Climate Observations• Climate variability has increased across much of the region      – more exceptionally we...
SE Precipitation VariabilitySouthern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data
SE Extreme Precipitation Trends                                                                         1-day 20% chance  ...
Chattanooga Extreme Precip                                                              Depicts 10-year rainfall          ...
SE Temperature Variability* Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data
Chattanooga Extreme Temp                60                50                40 Days >= 95 F                30             ...
$ Billion Weather Disasters, 1980-2005• Since 1980, the SE US has experienced more billion‐dollar  weather disasters than ...
Disaster Declarations by Decade• Declarations on the rise in TN and GASource: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (S...
Chattanooga Disaster Declarations                       • Hamilton                         County, TN, regionally         ...
Declared Disasters, 2000-2012*     Year                      Incidents                   Season     2003        SEVERE STO...
Flood of 2003 (1/3)• Heaviest rains in McMinn County (12+ in) from May 5-8• In Chattanooga:    – Peak 24 hour rain fall in...
Flood of 2003 (2/3)
Flood of 2003 (3/3)• Widespread road closures, damage, and evacuations• Damage in Chattanooga region was estimated at $17 ...
2004 Flooding Events (Ivan)• South Chickamauga Creek reached 25.1 feet, 7.1 feet  above flood stage, causing evacuations, ...
2011 Flooding Events• Feb 28 - March 1: Declared disaster• April 25 - 28: Declared disaster• September: Record rainfall
Module 4a: Climate Change BackgroundIMPLICATIONS FOR THE CHATTANOOGA REGIONJOANNE LOGAN, UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE
“Greenhouse” Effect
“Greenhouse” Effect                      Mercury
400                                                                                            2010 CO2 Concentration: 390...
10 Hottest Years on Record, USA
2012 Statement of AMS (1/3)• American Meteorological Society• Based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature• Warming of...
Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt
2012 Statement of AMS (2/3)• Very heavy precipitation events have increased over the last 50  years throughout the U.S.• F...
2012 Statement of AMS (3/3)• Climate is always changing• Many of the observed changes are beyond what can  be explained by...
Emission Scenarios to 2025
Emission Scenarios to 2100
General Circulation Models (GCMs)                                                                     •GCMs represent     ...
July Avg. Temps (2010-60, A1B) Source: Shepherd and Mote, U of Georgia
Change in Heat Stress Days
Change in Heavy Precip EventsSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
Module 4b: Climate Change BackgroundPOTENTIAL FUTURE EXTREMES IN THECHATTANOOGA REGION
Extreme Temperatures (>95°)                                        Projected Number of Days 95 F or above                 ...
Extreme Temperature (>100°)                                       Projected Number of Days 100 F or above                 ...
Days Above 95F      Less than 15      15 - 20      20 - 25      25 - 30      30 - 35      35 - 40      40 - 45      45 - 5...
Extreme Precipitation (50-year)•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3% maximumincrease for Chattanooga...
24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in)        Less than 5.50        5.51 - 6.00        6.01 - 6.50        6.51 - 7.00        7.0...
Extreme Precipitation (100-year)•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3.3% maximumincrease for Chattano...
24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in)        Less than 5.50        5.51 - 6.00        6.01 - 6.50        6.51 - 7.00        7.0...
Module 4: Assessing What is At Risk and How to AdaptTRANSPORTATION RESILIENCY
Discussion Areas• Survey of climate impacts on various transportation  assets by mode – what are the consequences?   – Fra...
Impacts from Extreme Weather• RoadwaysSource: Travis Long / The News & Observer via AP; Steve Taylor Sheriffs Dept   48
Impacts from Extreme Weather• BridgesSource: WSDOT; Police Lieutenant Mickey Garner, in Nashville
Categories of Impact            • No impact, either infrastructure was able to withstandNO IMPACT     impact, or climate s...
Impacts from Extreme Weather• TransitSource: Nashville MTA; US Volpe Center   51
Impacts from Extreme Weather• Marine Facilities, Freight and IntermodalSource: George Hornal, TDOT                   52
Impacts from Extreme Weather• AirportsSource: George Hornal, TDOT ; NYCAviation.com   53
Exercise: Climate Impacts• What impacts from extreme weather and potential  future climate do you face?  – A heavy rainfal...
Impacts from Temperature (1/2)Climate Effect                  Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsIncreases in very ho...
Impacts from Temperature (2/2)Climate Effect                           Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsDecreases i...
Impacts from Precipitation (1/2)Climate         Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsEffectIncreases in     •Areas in w...
Impacts from Precipitation (2/2)Climate         Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsEffectChanges in       •Benefits f...
Why Consider Adaptation?• Planning for the future can benefit the present• Proactive planning is more effective and less c...
Planning and Adaptation0ft                             1ft                                2f               3ft   4ft    5f...
Approach to Risk and Adaptation• Thresholds vs. frequencies• What is the expected lifespan of the asset?• What climate haz...
Est. Average Lifespan of AssetMode                        Infrastructure                           Lifetime (years)Surface...
Timing for Strategies• Planning      – Up to 25 years• Design, Engineering and Project Development      – Can be >10 years...
Adaptation Investment Choices             • RTP Development             • Strategic Abandonment/Redundancy             • E...
Example adaptation strategies• For example…      – Flood barriers      – Emergency detours      – Drainage maintenanceSour...
Interactive Exercise: Adaptation• Earlier, we listed out the types of impacts from  increased precipitation and temperatur...
Module 5: Criticality AssessmentTHE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONNETWORK: CRITICALITY
The regional transportation systemA mature, multi-modal system      Mode                       Total                      ...
Elements: Roadways
Elements: Rail
Elements: Multimodal
Role of Transportation System• Brainstorm: What is the role of the transportation  system in:   – Your communities?   – Yo...
Transportation “Values”• What attributes do you value in your transportation  system (what do you want it to provide)?
Criticality: Jobs and Pop. Density
Criticality: Public Services
Criticality: Volumes
Criticality: Planned Projects
Critical Assets• Which assets are critical to fulfilling transportation  roles and values in:   – Your communities?   – Yo...
Criticality: Your turn!                          Roads & Bridges                          Rail                          Ai...
Module 6: Vulnerability AssessmentTHE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONNETWORK: VULNERABILITY
Results from Criticality                                             Votes Received                                       ...
What makes an asset vulnerable?• Stressors   – Extreme precipitation (flash floods, river floods)   – Extreme temperatures...
What makes an asset vulnerable?• Impacts  – Is the asset exposed to the stressor, will it be in the future?     • Some str...
Vulnerability: Priorities for Action?EXAMPLE                             Today                   2040 and beyond*# Asset  ...
Module 7: Developing Adaptation Strategies for the CHCRPA RTPADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND THEREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN NOT...
Reminder: Why Adaptation?• Planning for the future can benefit the present• Proactive planning is more effective and less ...
Interactive Exercise: Strategies• Now we will develop adaptation strategies for the  examples we generated in the previous...
Interactive Exercise: Strategies• Process for selecting adaptation strategies  – What is the expected lifespan of the asse...
Strategy FrameworkEXAMPLE                           Today              2040 and beyond*# Asset     Stressor   Impacts    C...
Module 8: Monitoring, Evaluation, FeedbackPREPARING FOR THE NEXT PLANNINGCYCLE NOTE: Due to time constraints, this set of ...
How to put into RTP? (1/3)• Flag projects in 2040 RTP that are identified as being  potentially vulnerable   – Work with p...
How to put into RTP? (2/3)• Incorporate into performance measures  – New measure: Does project provide network    redundan...
How to put into RTP? (3/3)• Related planning processes that address more  detailed adaptation strategies   – Design for re...
How to continue with next RTP?• Update criticality/vulnerability assessment as new  data/better models become available   ...
Module 9: Closing and Wrap UpTHANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!
2040 RTP Climate Adaptation Workshop (9.17.2012)
2040 RTP Climate Adaptation Workshop (9.17.2012)
2040 RTP Climate Adaptation Workshop (9.17.2012)
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2040 RTP Climate Adaptation Workshop (9.17.2012)

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Climate Change Adapation & Transportation Resiliency Workshop held for state and local agency staff 9.17.2012

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  • The Historical Climate Trends product* provides a comparative seasonal or annual analysis for a specified climate division or state. Long term averages are taken from NCDC's monthly and annual temperature and rainfall datasets. These long term averages are depicted in each chart as a horizontal line in the middle of the chart.
  • This graph shows time series of the extreme precipitation index (using a 5‐year running average) for the southeastern USA for the occurrence of 1‐day, 1 in 5 year extreme precipitation events (red) and 5‐day, 1 in 5 year events (blue).
  • ]
  • A2 SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE OF GCMS1990 days over 95 min-max: 5.98-11.092040 days over 95 min-max: 15.295-23.202070 days over 95 min-max: 37.89-49.59
  • A2 SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE OF GCMS1990 50 yr 24 rainfall min-max: 4.829 to 7.466 in2040 50yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 4.899 to 7.585 in2070 50yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 4.968 to 7.712 in
  • A2 SCENARIO, ENSEMBLE OF GCMS1990 100 yr 24 rainfall min-max: 5.076 to 8.471 in2040 100yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 5.158 to 8.639 in2070 100yr 24hr rainfall min-max: 5.241 to 8.817 in
  • Transcript of "2040 RTP Climate Adaptation Workshop (9.17.2012)"

    1. 1. 2040 Regional Transportation PlanClimate Change &Transportation ResiliencySeptember 17, 2012 Chattanooga-Hamilton County/N. GA Transportation Planning Organization
    2. 2. Module 1: Welcome and IntroductionsAGENDA & WORKSHOP GOALS
    3. 3. Why put Adaptation in the RTP?• Transportation projects in the RTP will need to withstand climate stressors• The transportation network produced by the RTP will need to provide redundancy of routes for extreme weather events• Overlap with other sections of RTP – Maintenance/State of Good Repair – Safety/Security• Adaptation strategies contribute to Goals and Objectives of the 2040 RTP
    4. 4. Region to Region Community to Region Within Community Goal: GROW ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY THROUGH STRATEGIC INVESTMENT IN CRITICAL REGIONAL Goal: CONNECT COMMUNITIES TO INFRASTRUCTURE OPPORTUNITIES IN THE REGION BY Goal: BUILD AND MAINTAIN SAFE AND PROVIDING MULTIMODAL TRAVEL Objectives: HEALTHY COMMUNITIES OPTIONS TO ACTIVITY AND ECONOMIC CENTERS • Preserve, maintain and improve existing infrastructure before Objectives: adding new capacity2040 RTP • Support walkable and bicycle-friendly Objectives: • Preserve, maintain and improve • Support continued economic communities that promote safe, non-Draft Goals motorized connections to community existing infrastructure before adding growth of the region by improving intermodal connections that reduce new capacityand resources • Provide incentives for complete streets • Provide incentives for complete delay for both people and goods streets project design • Reduce delay on critical regionalObjectives project design • Encourage corridor improvements thoroughfares with minimal impact • Encourage investments anchored in to community, historic and anchored in integrated integrated transportation and land use environmental resources transportation and land use planning, that support desired • Improve the efficiency and planning, that support desired community character reliability of freight, cargo and community character • Improve safety through improved goods movement by reducing delay • Improve mobility and support operations, preventative maintenance, on corridors critical to freight economic development by providing and ADA compliance movement expanded set of travel options, with • Prioritize investments in areas where • Improve travel time reliability emphasis on public transit local land use and development through improved system • Improve travel time reliability regulations support healthy, safe operations through improved system communities operations • Prioritize investment that improves • Incentive corridor protection plans multimodal access to existing or planned transit hubs or that fills gaps in existing multimodal system Note: Draft goals and objectives recently endorsed by TCC with • Encourage connected street network small modifications. To be presented to TPO Board on Oct. 16
    5. 5. Agenda1. Introduction2. Extreme Weather3. Climate Futures4. Transportation Resiliency5. Critical Infrastructure• Lunch6. Vulnerability Assessment7. Adaptation Strategies8. Next RTP Cycle9. Wrap Up
    6. 6. Module 2: Extreme WeatherTHE PAST AND PRESENT: WEATHER INTHE CHATTANOOGA REGION
    7. 7. Extreme Events in the Southeast• Heavy Rainfall and Floods• Extreme Heat and Cold• Droughts• Winter Storms• Thunderstorms and Tornadoes• A Note: Climate vs. WeatherSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
    8. 8. SE Regional Climate Observations• Climate variability has increased across much of the region – more exceptionally wet and dry summers compared to the middle part of the 20th century• Increases in extreme precipitation, along with urbanization, has increased runoff, increasing risk of flash and river flooding• Since 1970s, temperatures have steadily increased, especially during the summer season – 2001-2010 is the warmest decade on record – Upward trend in extreme events over past 3 decadesSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
    9. 9. SE Precipitation VariabilitySouthern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data
    10. 10. SE Extreme Precipitation Trends 1-day 20% chance 5-day 20% chance • Frequency of extreme precipitation increasing in the SESource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
    11. 11. Chattanooga Extreme Precip Depicts 10-year rainfall events or greater only• 4 extreme events since 1977 within NOAA-estimated 50 year average recurrence interval (the 50-year 24 hr event)• 2011 rainfall event exceeds top range for 1000-year event Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP; Recurrence intervals: NOAA Atlas 14, Volume 2, Version 3
    12. 12. SE Temperature Variability* Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) Historic Climate Trends, NCDC data
    13. 13. Chattanooga Extreme Temp 60 50 40 Days >= 95 F 30 20 10 0 1928 1938 1948 1958 1968 1978 1988 1998 2008 # Days >= 95F Avg. Days >=95F 5 per. Mov. Avg. (# Days >= 95F) Data: GHCN Daily Lovell AP
    14. 14. $ Billion Weather Disasters, 1980-2005• Since 1980, the SE US has experienced more billion‐dollar weather disasters than any other region in the country
    15. 15. Disaster Declarations by Decade• Declarations on the rise in TN and GASource: Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP)
    16. 16. Chattanooga Disaster Declarations • Hamilton County, TN, regionally unique in susceptibility to flooding • All counties vulnerable to severe storm events Source: FEMA
    17. 17. Declared Disasters, 2000-2012* Year Incidents Season 2003 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring 2004 SEVERE STORMS AND FLOODING Fall 2011 SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, AND FLOODING Spring SEVERE STORMS, TORNADOES, STRAIGHT-LINE 2011 Spring WINDS, AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING *Hamilton County. Source: FEMA.
    18. 18. Flood of 2003 (1/3)• Heaviest rains in McMinn County (12+ in) from May 5-8• In Chattanooga: – Peak 24 hour rain fall in 2-year recurrence range – Peak 4 day rainfall in 50-year recurrence range• Record flooding on the South Chickamauga Creek• Near (modern) record flooding on the Tennessee RiverSource: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN
    19. 19. Flood of 2003 (2/3)
    20. 20. Flood of 2003 (3/3)• Widespread road closures, damage, and evacuations• Damage in Chattanooga region was estimated at $17 millionPhoto credit: National Weather Service, Morristown , TN
    21. 21. 2004 Flooding Events (Ivan)• South Chickamauga Creek reached 25.1 feet, 7.1 feet above flood stage, causing evacuations, road closures, airport flooding Source: Hamilton County Natural Hazards Mitigation Plan, 2012. Photo Credit: The Chattanoogan.com
    22. 22. 2011 Flooding Events• Feb 28 - March 1: Declared disaster• April 25 - 28: Declared disaster• September: Record rainfall
    23. 23. Module 4a: Climate Change BackgroundIMPLICATIONS FOR THE CHATTANOOGA REGIONJOANNE LOGAN, UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE
    24. 24. “Greenhouse” Effect
    25. 25. “Greenhouse” Effect Mercury
    26. 26. 400 2010 CO2 Concentration: 390 380 After 35 more years at the current rate of increase 360 340 320 300 280 260 CO2 (ppmv) 240 220 200 180 800,000 700,000 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 Age (years BP)Source: National Climatic Data Center/NOAA
    27. 27. 10 Hottest Years on Record, USA
    28. 28. 2012 Statement of AMS (1/3)• American Meteorological Society• Based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature• Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence• The effects of this warming are especially evident in the planet’s polar regions• Most of the world’s glaciers are in retreat• Globally averaged sea level has risen by about 17 cm (7 inches) in the 20th century, with the rise accelerating since the early 1990s
    29. 29. Greenland Seasonal Ice Melt
    30. 30. 2012 Statement of AMS (2/3)• Very heavy precipitation events have increased over the last 50 years throughout the U.S.• Freezing levels are rising in elevation, with rain occurring more frequently instead of snow at mid-elevations of western mountains• Spring maximum snowpack is decreasing, snowmelt occurs earlier, and the spring runoff that supplies over two-thirds of western U.S. streamflow is reduced.• Earlier springs, longer frost-free periods, longer growing seasons, and shifts in natural habitats and in migratory patterns of birds and insects
    31. 31. 2012 Statement of AMS (3/3)• Climate is always changing• Many of the observed changes are beyond what can be explained by the natural variability of the climate• Dominant cause of the rapid change in climate of the past half century is human-induced increases in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbons, methane, and nitrous oxide
    32. 32. Emission Scenarios to 2025
    33. 33. Emission Scenarios to 2100
    34. 34. General Circulation Models (GCMs) •GCMs represent physical processes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryo sphere and land surface •3-D grids over the globe, 250-600km, 10-20 vertical layers, up to 30 ocean layers •May be statistically downscaled to consider regional scale impactsSource and image credit: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
    35. 35. July Avg. Temps (2010-60, A1B) Source: Shepherd and Mote, U of Georgia
    36. 36. Change in Heat Stress Days
    37. 37. Change in Heavy Precip EventsSource: Southeast Region Technical Report to the National Climate Assessment
    38. 38. Module 4b: Climate Change BackgroundPOTENTIAL FUTURE EXTREMES IN THECHATTANOOGA REGION
    39. 39. Extreme Temperatures (>95°) Projected Number of Days 95 F or above 60 50 40 BLNumber of Days/Yr B1_2040 A1B_2040 30 A2_2040 B1_2070 20 A1B_2070 A2_2070 10 0 DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW
    40. 40. Extreme Temperature (>100°) Projected Number of Days 100 F or above 16 14 12 BLNumber of Days/Yr 10 B1_2040 A1B_2040 8 A2_2040 6 B1_2070 A1B_2070 4 A2_2070 2 0 DAYTON 2SE CLEVELAND FLTR PLT CHATTANOOGA AP DALTON BRIDGEPORT 5 NW
    41. 41. Days Above 95F Less than 15 15 - 20 20 - 25 25 - 30 30 - 35 35 - 40 40 - 45 45 - 50 41
    42. 42. Extreme Precipitation (50-year)•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3% maximumincrease for Chattanooga AP)•Return periods of today’s 50-year event likely to shrink (on average every 42-45years)
    43. 43. 24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in) Less than 5.50 5.51 - 6.00 6.01 - 6.50 6.51 - 7.00 7.01 - 7.50 7.51 - 8.00 8.01 - 8.50 Above 8.50 43
    44. 44. Extreme Precipitation (100-year)•Only minor change of absolute amounts (e.g., only about 3.3% maximumincrease for Chattanooga AP)•Return periods of today’s 100-year event likely to shrink (on average every 82-87 years)•Conservative case: Using a full range of GCMs adds ¼ inch/24-hours in 2070(recurrence interval of 66 years for today’s event)•By 2100, the high range adds > ½ inch/24-hours, recurrence interval is 52.5 yrs
    45. 45. 24hr (daily) Rainfall Total (in) Less than 5.50 5.51 - 6.00 6.01 - 6.50 6.51 - 7.00 7.01 - 7.50 7.51 - 8.00 8.01 - 8.50 Above 8.50 45
    46. 46. Module 4: Assessing What is At Risk and How to AdaptTRANSPORTATION RESILIENCY
    47. 47. Discussion Areas• Survey of climate impacts on various transportation assets by mode – what are the consequences? – Framework for understanding categories of impact – Documented impacts from the literature• Determining timeframes, risks and consequences – Lifespan of assets – Climate hazard protection windows• Introducing adaptation
    48. 48. Impacts from Extreme Weather• RoadwaysSource: Travis Long / The News & Observer via AP; Steve Taylor Sheriffs Dept 48
    49. 49. Impacts from Extreme Weather• BridgesSource: WSDOT; Police Lieutenant Mickey Garner, in Nashville
    50. 50. Categories of Impact • No impact, either infrastructure was able to withstandNO IMPACT impact, or climate stressor did not affect the asset • Temporary closure of facility DISRUPT • Over time, a facility is affected by more frequent occurrencesDETERIOR- of extreme events and asset begins to deteriorate ATION • The facility was unable to withstand impact, and is damagedDAMAGE 50
    51. 51. Impacts from Extreme Weather• TransitSource: Nashville MTA; US Volpe Center 51
    52. 52. Impacts from Extreme Weather• Marine Facilities, Freight and IntermodalSource: George Hornal, TDOT 52
    53. 53. Impacts from Extreme Weather• AirportsSource: George Hornal, TDOT ; NYCAviation.com 53
    54. 54. Exercise: Climate Impacts• What impacts from extreme weather and potential future climate do you face? – A heavy rainfall event can result in flooding (sometimes from culverts and bridges being blocked with debris), erosion, rock falls, and scour around bridgeheads and footings. If you were experiencing severe flood conditions, what would your biggest concerns be? – During heat waves, deterioration could impact certain infrastructure components (asphalt on highways, concrete bridge joints). If you were experiencing an excessive number of high heat days, what would your biggest concerns be?
    55. 55. Impacts from Temperature (1/2)Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsIncreases in very hot days •Asphalt degradation and pavement rutting, resulting in possibleand heat waves (higher short-term loss of public access or increased congestion ofhigh temperatures, sections of road and highway during repair and replacementincreased duration of heat •Increased thermal expansion of bridge joints and pavedwaves) surfaces, causing possible degradation •Concerns regarding pavement integrity, traffic-related rutting and migration of liquid asphalt, blow outs from concrete paving •Maintenance and construction costs for roads and bridges; stress on bridge integrity due to temperature expansion of concrete joints, steel, asphalt, protective cladding, coats, and sealants •Limits on periods of construction activity, and more nighttime work •Vehicle failures from overheating and tire degradationSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 55Council (2008).
    56. 56. Impacts from Temperature (2/2)Climate Effect Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsDecreases in very cold •Regional changes in snow and ice removaldays costs, environmental impacts from salt and chemical use •Fewer cold-related restrictions for maintenance workersLater onset of seasonal •Heaving/potholes (due to freeze-thaw)freeze and earlier onset •Fatigue cracking (cold temperature)of seasonal thaw •Changes in seasonal weight restrictions •Changes in seasonal fuel requirements •Improved mobility and safety associated with a reduction in winter weather •Longer construction season in colder areasSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research Council (2008). 56
    57. 57. Impacts from Precipitation (1/2)Climate Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsEffectIncreases in •Areas in which flooding is already common will face more frequent and severeintense problemsprecipitation •Increases in weather-related delays and traffic disruptionsevents •Increased flooding of evacuation routes •Increases in flooding of roadways and tunnels, culvert failures •Increases in road washout, landslides, and mudslides that damage roadways •Drainage systems likely to be overloaded more frequently and severely, causing backups and street flooding •If soil moisture levels become too high, structural integrity of roads, bridges, and tunnels (especially where they are already under stress) could be compromised •Standing water may have adverse effects on road base •Increased peak streamflow could affect scour rates and influence the size requirement for bridges and culverts •Driver accidents increased/driver safety compromisedSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 57Council (2008).
    58. 58. Impacts from Precipitation (2/2)Climate Impacts on Infrastructure and OperationsEffectChanges in •Benefits for safety and reduced interruptions if frozen precipitation shifts toseasonal rainfallprecipitation •Corrosion (from increased surface salts due to less precipitation)and stream •Increased risk of floods, landslides, gradual failures and damage to roads if precipitation changes from snow to rain in winter and spring thaws; moreflow erosionpatterns •Vegetation failure (due to drought) •Increased maintenance and replacement costs of road infrastructure •Short-term loss of public access or increased congestion to sections of road and highway from road closures and disruptions •Changes in access to floodplains during construction season and mobilization periods •Changes in wetland location and the associated natural protective services that wetlands offer to infrastructureSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 58Council (2008).
    59. 59. Why Consider Adaptation?• Planning for the future can benefit the present• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly than responding reactively to climate change impacts as they happen• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits
    60. 60. Planning and Adaptation0ft 1ft 2f 3ft 4ft 5ft tExisting levees Enhance existing wetlands, realign levees Terraced levees levee Terraced brackish Realign functions Realign functions Threshold Decision Lead Time Effective 60 Source: http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/content/view/1904/500/
    61. 61. Approach to Risk and Adaptation• Thresholds vs. frequencies• What is the expected lifespan of the asset?• What climate hazards may impact the asset, and in what timeframe?• Which adaptation strategies are potentially applicable? 61
    62. 62. Est. Average Lifespan of AssetMode Infrastructure Lifetime (years)Surface Transportation Pavement 10-20 Bridges 50-100 Culverts 30-45 Tunnels 50-100 Railroad Tracks Up to 50Marine Locks and dams 50 Docks and port terminals 40-50Aviation Runway pavements 10 Terminals 40-50Pipelines Pipelines 100Source: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 62Council (2008).
    63. 63. Timing for Strategies• Planning – Up to 25 years• Design, Engineering and Project Development – Can be >10 years design – Able to leverage funding and flexibility for expected changes• Maintenance – Approx 1-10 years decisions – Limited funding and flexibility• Operations – Day-to-day decisions – Come up with Plan BSource: Potential Impacts to Climate Change on U.S. Transportation , National Research 63Council (2008).
    64. 64. Adaptation Investment Choices • RTP Development • Strategic Abandonment/Redundancy • Emergency Evaluation Planning Planning • Hazard Mitigation Planning • Standards and Specifications • Engineering for Resiliency • Advanced Materials Design • Protecting and Hardening • Traffic Operations • ITS • MaintenanceOperations • Emergency Response 64
    65. 65. Example adaptation strategies• For example… – Flood barriers – Emergency detours – Drainage maintenanceSource: Dan Henry, Chattanooga Times Free Press; Associated Press; FHWA
    66. 66. Interactive Exercise: Adaptation• Earlier, we listed out the types of impacts from increased precipitation and temperature.• Now, we will brainstorm adaptation strategies for the various stressors into categories of planning, design and operations.• We will summarize this information for you to use in Module 7.
    67. 67. Module 5: Criticality AssessmentTHE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONNETWORK: CRITICALITY
    68. 68. The regional transportation systemA mature, multi-modal system Mode Total Highways (Miles)• Roadways Interstate 50.2• Freight rail US Highway 126.4 State Highway 242.4• Airport Other 4030.1• Intermodal freight facilities Railroads (Miles) Class I 171.3• Marine facilities Other 50.2 Intermodal Facilities 16 Airports/heliports CHA/Lovell 1 Other airports 5 Heliports 3 Marine (terminals/docks) 31
    69. 69. Elements: Roadways
    70. 70. Elements: Rail
    71. 71. Elements: Multimodal
    72. 72. Role of Transportation System• Brainstorm: What is the role of the transportation system in: – Your communities? – Your region? – Beyond …?
    73. 73. Transportation “Values”• What attributes do you value in your transportation system (what do you want it to provide)?
    74. 74. Criticality: Jobs and Pop. Density
    75. 75. Criticality: Public Services
    76. 76. Criticality: Volumes
    77. 77. Criticality: Planned Projects
    78. 78. Critical Assets• Which assets are critical to fulfilling transportation roles and values in: – Your communities? – Your region? – Beyond…?
    79. 79. Criticality: Your turn! Roads & Bridges Rail Air Maritime Intermodal
    80. 80. Module 6: Vulnerability AssessmentTHE REGIONAL TRANSPORTATIONNETWORK: VULNERABILITY
    81. 81. Results from Criticality Votes Received >=3 <3• Map of critical places Roads & Bridges generated over lunch Rail• Feedback from small groups Air Maritime Intermodal
    82. 82. What makes an asset vulnerable?• Stressors – Extreme precipitation (flash floods, river floods) – Extreme temperatures – Hurricanes/tropical storms, tornadoes, other high winds, blizzards, wildfires, etc.
    83. 83. What makes an asset vulnerable?• Impacts – Is the asset exposed to the stressor, will it be in the future? • Some stressors are map-able (e.g. flooding) • Others are less spatially explicit (e.g. temperature) – What impacts could occur, what are the likely consequences? • Damage? • Disruption? • Deterioration? • No Impact? – How frequently could impacts occur, with what probability? • How might these frequencies change in the future?
    84. 84. Vulnerability: Priorities for Action?EXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq1 Bridge Extreme Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++ precip Overtop Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++ Approach Extreme Expansion Disrupt 3x yr  +++ Temp•Future consequences and frequencies may grow worse (or get better)due to changes in condition, climate, or external factors (e.g. change involumes)
    85. 85. Module 7: Developing Adaptation Strategies for the CHCRPA RTPADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND THEREGIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLAN NOTE: Due to time constraints, adaptation was combined with the vulnerability module. This set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.
    86. 86. Reminder: Why Adaptation?• Planning for the future can benefit the present• Proactive planning is more effective and less costly than responding reactively to climate change impacts as they happen• Thinking strategically can reduce future risks• Thinking strategically can increase future benefits
    87. 87. Interactive Exercise: Strategies• Now we will develop adaptation strategies for the examples we generated in the previous module.• Note: remember you can refer to your “cheat sheet.”
    88. 88. Interactive Exercise: Strategies• Process for selecting adaptation strategies – What is the expected lifespan of the asset? – Which climate hazards may impact the asset, and in what timeframe? – Which adaptation strategies are potentially applicable? • Implementation feasibility • Effectiveness
    89. 89. Strategy FrameworkEXAMPLE Today 2040 and beyond*# Asset Stressor Impacts Cons Freq Cons Freq1 Bridge Extreme Scour Damage 25 yr+ ++ +++ precip Overtop Disrupt 10 yr+ ++ ++ Approach Extreme Expansion Disrupt 3x yr  +++ TempWhich adaptation strategies are potentially applicable? •Implementation feasibility •Effectiveness
    90. 90. Module 8: Monitoring, Evaluation, FeedbackPREPARING FOR THE NEXT PLANNINGCYCLE NOTE: Due to time constraints, this set of slides was not delivered during the workshop.
    91. 91. How to put into RTP? (1/3)• Flag projects in 2040 RTP that are identified as being potentially vulnerable – Work with project sponsors to incorporate adaptation strategies into project design, if necessary – Define new transportation projects that enhance transportation resiliency
    92. 92. How to put into RTP? (2/3)• Incorporate into performance measures – New measure: Does project provide network redundancy for a critical/vulnerable transportation asset? – Adjustment factor for scoring of other measures • Example: Project addresses existing bridge deficiency (extra points if asset is critical/vulnerable)
    93. 93. How to put into RTP? (3/3)• Related planning processes that address more detailed adaptation strategies – Design for resiliency as part of TIP project selection procedures?
    94. 94. How to continue with next RTP?• Update criticality/vulnerability assessment as new data/better models become available – US Army Corps hydrological model (HEC-RTS) with slider bar to see how floodplains change for potential rainfall events – Travel demand model updated each cycle• Incorporate new projects/adaptation strategies as they are developed• Refine integration into RTP performance measures/TIP selection criteria
    95. 95. Module 9: Closing and Wrap UpTHANK YOU FOR YOUR PARTICIPATION!
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