Climate Change & The Historic Environment - May 2012 John Powell
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Climate Change & The Historic Environment - May 2012 John Powell

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Impact of Climate Change on the Historic environment of Wales.

Impact of Climate Change on the Historic environment of Wales.

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    Climate Change & The Historic Environment - May 2012 John Powell Climate Change & The Historic Environment - May 2012 John Powell Presentation Transcript

    • CLIMATECHANGE ANDTHE HISTORICENVIRONMENTPRESENTATION TO HEG MAY 2012
    • For this study we areexamining:The direct impact ofclimate changeBut the greatest impact onthe historic environmentmay be caused by:• The impact of some adaptive responses to climate change• The impact of mitigation to reduce the threat of climate change• The impact of opportunities offered by climate change
    • Predicting climate change• UKCIP Climate change scenarios summarising likelyoutcomes for mid-range emissions: 2020, 2050 and 2080for Wales• High level of uncertainty over projectionsPredicted changes – 2050s medium emissions scenarioSeason Temperature: Temperature: Rainfall Outcome seasonal mean mean daily max descriptor and (min )Summer 2.5oC 3.4oC (2.6oC) -17% Hotter, drier summersWinter 2oC +14% Warmer wetter wintersAnnual 0% More frequent extreme events
    • Descriptors and outcomesof predicted climate changeDescriptor Outcome Outcome OutcomeWarmer wetter More frequent Migration of pests More frequent highwinters rainfall; flooding and diseases winds/storms eventsWarmer mean Rise in sea levels Longer growing Migration of peststemperatures season and diseases into BritainHotter drier Drying out,summers desiccation and Stress on some Drying and shrinking erosion of trees and plants of clay soils wetlandsMore frequent Frequent highextreme weather winds/storms
    • Description of Warmer mean temperatures Hotter, drier summers Warmer, More frequent change wetter extreme winters weather Migration of Drying out, Longer Stress on Drying and More Rise in sea pests and desiccation Frequent highOutcome of change growing some trees shrinking of flooding levels diseases and erosion winds/storms season and plants clay soils events into Britain of wetlandsHistoricEnvironment AssetHistoric parks andgardensRegistered historiclandscapes TheArchaeological sites inan uplandenvironment impact ofArchaeological siteson uplandpeat/blanket bog climateArchaeological siteson farmland changeArchaeological sites inforestry/woodland on historicArchaeological siteson wetland/wetlandmarginsHistoric buildings assetsArchaeological siteson sand dunesHistoric buildings andarchaeological sitesbelow the 1.0 mcontourArchaeological siteson the foreshoreHistoric buildings andarchaeological sites onfloodplains and invalley bottomsHistoric buildings andarchaeological sites ina coastal location butnot likely to beflooded
    • Assessing risks to historic assets Scale Point DescriptionThe extent ofimpact on 1 Limitedhistoric 2 Moderately Limitedenvironment 3 Moderateassets 4 Moderately extensive 5 ExtensiveScale Point Description-3 Large negative impact The severity-2 Moderate negative impact of impact on-1 Small negative impact historic0 Neutral environment+1 Small beneficial impact assets+2 Moderate beneficial impact+3 Large beneficial impact
    • Assessing risks to historic assetsScale Point Description0 Not vulnerable to change The1 Slightly vulnerable to change vulnerability of2 Slight/moderately vulnerable to historic change environmental3 Moderately vulnerable to change assets to4 Moderate/Highly vulnerable to change change5 Highly vulnerable to changeImpact Significance = Extent x Severity x vulnerability
    • Description of changeMore frequent extreme weather eventsOutcome of changeFrequent high winds/stormsLocationAll historic parks and gardensImpact on historic environment assets A. Mature trees B. Historic buildings and structures Extent Severity Vulnerability Significance of Impact Example: A 2 -3 3 -18 moderate negative Risk B 2 -1 2 -4 small negative assessmentRisk assessment of historic assetsA. More frequent storms and extreme weather events will have a disproportionate impact on mature and matrixveteran trees, as these by their nature tend to be the largest, tallest examples in parks and gardens. Assome species take several hundred years to reach maturity, the impact of more frequent storms willhave a short, medium and long-term impact.B. Many historic parks and gardens contain buildings and other structures which are likely to bedamaged by more frequent storms.Specific gaps in knowledgeResponses to outcome of changeReplacement planting damaged trees of species more resistant to storm damage.Notes and references
    • Example: Historic parks & gardens– frequent high winds/stormsChange: more frequent extreme weather eventsLocation: all historic parks and gardensAssets: A – mature trees B – buildings/structures Extent Severity Vulnerability SignificanceA 2 -3 3 -18 moderate negativeB 2 -1 2 -4 small negative• Risk Assessment• Gaps in knowledge• Response to outcomes
    • Example: Historic parks &gardens – longer growing season Change: warmer mean temperatures Outcome: longer growing season Location: all historic parks and gardens Assets: A – character of parks/gardens Extent Severity Vulnerability SignificanceA 5 2 3 15 moderate positive• Risk Assessment• Gaps in knowledge• Response to outcomes
    • Example: Historic parks & gardens– hotter drier summers Change: hotter drier summers Outcome: stress on trees, shrubs, plants Location: all historic parks and gardens Assets: A – trees, shrubs, plants in historic parks/gardens Extent Severity Vulnerability Significance A 2 0 4 0 – neutral impact• Risk Assessment• Gaps in knowledge• Response to outcomes
    • Example: Historic parks & gardens– migration of pests and diseases Change: Warmer mean temperature Outcome: migration of pests/diseases Location: all historic parks and gardens Assets: A – trees, shrubs, plants in historic parks/gardens Extent Severity Vulnerability Significance A 5 -1 43 -15 Moderate negative• Risk Assessment• Gaps in knowledge• Response to outcomes
    • Historic parks and gardens –summaryLocation Historic parks and gardensDescription of Outcome of Location Impact on historic Significance ofchange change environment impact assetsWarmer mean Longer growing All historic parks The character of Moderate positivetemperatures season and gardens historic parks and gardens Migration of pests All historic parks Trees, shrubs and Moderate negative and diseases into and gardens plants in historic Britain parks and gardensHotter drier Stress on trees and All historic parks Trees, shrubs and Moderate negativesummers plants and gardens plants in historic parks and gardensMore frequent Frequent high All historic parks Mature trees Moderate negativeextreme weather winds/storms and gardens Historic buildings Small negativeevents and structures
    • Example: Historic buildings &archaeological sites on floodplainsChange: warmer wetter wintersOutcome: more flooding eventsLocation: all historic buildings and archaeological sites on floodplains and in valley bottomsAssets: A – damage to buildings and fittings B – damage to fabric of towns/villages C – damage to archaeological sites Extent Severity Vulnerability SignificanceA 5 -3 5 -75 High negativeB 3 -2 -3 -18 Moderate negativeC 5 -1 -1 -5 Small negative
    • More flooding eventsA RCAHMW study identified 5412listed buildings on floodplains, 302scheduled ancient monuments and12,000 other archaeological sites
    • Historic landscapes - Cumulatively a highly significant impactLocationDescription of change Outcome of change Impact on historic Significance of impact environment assetsWarmer mean Rise in sea levels Waterside landscapes Moderate negativetemperatures such as coastland, estuaries and river valleys Longer growing season Farmland and upland Moderate negative areas Migration of pests and Areas of woodland and Moderate negative diseases into Britain forestryHotter drier summers Drying out, desiccation Wetland habitats, such as Moderate negative and erosion of wetlands blanket bog, and upland areas. Stress on some trees and Native woodland Moderate negative plantsWarmer, wetter winters More flooding events Historic towns and cities Moderate negative and areas of woodland.More frequent extreme Frequent high winds and Historic buildings, areas Small - moderateweather storms of woodland and forestry negative and archaeological monuments
    • Description of Warmer mean temperatures Hotter, drier summers Warmer, More frequent change wetter extreme winters weather Migration of Drying out, Longer Stress on Drying and More Rise in sea pests and desiccation Frequent highOutcome of change growing some trees shrinking of flooding levels diseases and erosion winds/storms season and plants clay soils events into Britain of wetlandsHistoricEnvironment AssetHistoric parks andgardensRegistered historic Summary oflandscapesArchaeological sites in impactan uplandenvironmentArchaeological sites significanceon uplandpeat/blanket bogArchaeological siteson farmlandArchaeological sites inforestry/woodlandArchaeological siteson wetland/wetlandmarginsHistoric buildingsArchaeological siteson sand dunesHistoric buildings andarchaeological sites Impactbelow the 1.0 mcontour significance:Archaeological siteson the foreshore Red – highHistoric buildings andarchaeological sites on Orange –floodplains and invalley bottoms moderateHistoric buildings andarchaeological sites in Green – lowa coastal location butnot likely to be Blue – positiveflooded
    • Adaptation, Mitigation andOpportunitiesImpact of some adaptive responses to climate change Coastal defences Flood defences Flood water disposal/infiltration Expansion of forestry/woodlandImpact of mitigation to reduce threats of climate change Windfarms Solar panels Micro hydro-electric schemes Building insulationImpact of opportunities offered by climate change New types of crops Expansion of arable farming Expansion of farmland onto marginal land
    • Next Steps •Risk based prioritisation of historical assets •Risk mapping •Exploration of adaptive strategies •Strategic planning and programming •‘Asset proofing’ of sectoral policies mitigating climate change