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Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change: Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst'

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A series of visualizations to stimulate thinking about climate change. Using UKCP09 high emissions projections and a variety of scenes from Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds.

A series of visualizations to stimulate thinking about climate change. Using UKCP09 high emissions projections and a variety of scenes from Gloucestershire and the Cotswolds.

Published in: Environment, Technology

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  • 1. Visioning Future Landscapes of Climate Change: Cotswolds ‘Best and Worst’ Cotswolds AONB Landscape Change Seminar 12th June 2014 Dr Robert Berry Countryside and Community Research Institute University of Gloucestershire rberry@glos.ac.uk
  • 2. Overview • Brief series of visualisations to stimulate thinking and discussion around future landscape change • Scenarios based on UKCP09 high emissions projections (2080- 2010) [1] • Likely rise of 3-5+ degrees • Consider best (‘constructive’ ‘B’) and worst (‘in denial’ ‘A’) scenarios for possible responses and their landscape outcomes • Several images/maps representative of Cotswolds & Glos views • Future research plans
  • 3. Considering the linkages… Temperature increase (5 degrees) Longer season, faster crop growth, higher/drier yields. Grow more arable (wheat, rape) Switch to more southern / high- value crops Increase in pest and disease outbreaks decreased summer rain, more winter storms/floods 1m + Sea level rise, Severn Switch to more resilient (drought tolerant, robust over winter) crops Pressure for more residential development, infrastructure, industry? Severn Vale/lowland flooding Hedge and wall degradation (reduced need for boundaries) Grazing stock relatively more difficult/low return? Need for renewable energy Grow and harvest more trees – SRC, woods Changes in physical structure, more mixed cover, more man-made elements, more intensity of use, more variety of colours
  • 4. Baseline [2] ‘A’ scenario - Little mitigation and adaptation ‘B’ scenario - Focussed mitigation and adaptation High Wold
  • 5. Crop changes [3]
  • 6. 6 Landscape change Enterprise scenarioMitigation and adaptation scenario [3]
  • 7. Current Environment Agency Flood Alert Areas + sea level rise of 0.5-1.0m (2100) Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014)
  • 8. Data sources: Contains Ordnance Survey data © Crown copyright and database right (2014) Gloucestershire Severn Vale Developed Land Use (ha) 307645 16356 Developed Land Use under threat (ha) 761 761 Percentage 0.25% 4.7%
  • 9. Development Pressures [4] [5]
  • 10. Future research: Visioning landscapes of climate change in Gloucestershire • Evaluate the use of geospatial technology to make climate change apparent and meaningful at the local level to the average community member – Refining downscaling of global/regional climate models to local level – Participatory approach to developing scenarios • Severn flooding • Development on Cotswolds scarp • Agricultural /landscape change on the high wold • Floodplain Valleys • Lowland – Visualise scenarios in 3D GIS – Disseminate using different media/formats – Evaluate impact of visualisation on perceptions of climate change
  • 11. References 1. Defra (2009). Adapting to climate change: UK climate projections. Accessed 28/06/2014 from archive.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/.../uk-climate- projections.pdf 2. Dockerty, T. (2002). Futurescapes: Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on England’s rural landscapes. Accessed 27/06/2014 from http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e384/landscapes.htm 3. Dockerty, T.L, A. A.Lovett, G.Sünnenberg, K.J.Appleton, M.Parry (2005). Visualising the potential impacts of climate change on rural landscapes. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems, 29, 297-320. 4. Maws, A. (2014). Photomontages of a proposed housing development in Gloucestershire. Accessed on 02/06/2014 from http://andymawdesign.co.uk/portfolio-items/housing-development- gloucestershire/ 5. Sheppard, S. (2012). Visualizing climate change: A Guide to Visual Communication of Climate Change and Developing Local Solutions. Routledge.