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CAP Reform - Current Policy & Potential Implications
 

CAP Reform - Current Policy & Potential Implications

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Professor Janet Dwyer gave a presentation on the topic of the future prospects for Commons in the South-West of England, in the light of the proposed reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy, to the ...

Professor Janet Dwyer gave a presentation on the topic of the future prospects for Commons in the South-West of England, in the light of the proposed reforms to the Common Agricultural Policy, to the Third Biennial South West Uplands Conference. She outlines the timetable and expectations for the reform process, and assesses how far it seems likely to help or hinder the prospects for SW upland areas.

Link to the full conference details:
http://swuf.org.uk/swuf-conference-report/

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  • Projected change in mean temperatures for EU27 are between 2 and 4 degrees over the next century, with the highest changes in the south – Iberian peninsula plateau and Alpine regions, also Bulgaria, Romania and Greece, and Finland.Rainfall will increase 40% in Scandinavia and Scotland, but decrease 40% in Italy, Iberia, SW France and Greece and Romania.Considerable increases in river flooding are anticipated in northern Scandinavia and northern Italy. Some low lying parts of England, Ireland, Romania and Hungary will also see much more river flooding. Eastern England, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and West France as well as regions in northern Italy (Veneto) and Romania will also see greater exposure to coastal storm surges.Overall the economic impacts of climate change show a clear south-north gradient: many economically important countries like Germany, Poland and almost the whole Scandinavia may expect a positive impact. The main reason for the gradient is the economic dependency of large parts of Southern Europe on (summer) tourism, but also agriculture. Both are projected to be negatively impacted due to the increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall. Energy demands also come into play through the increased need for cooling. However, the Alps as a premier tourist depended region are also identified as hotspot which mainly results from the projected decrease in snow cover. The economic impact in South Eastern Europe is a consequence of the impact on agriculture – which is still important there.

CAP Reform - Current Policy & Potential Implications CAP Reform - Current Policy & Potential Implications Presentation Transcript

  • Overview of current policy and implications of CAP reform Janet Dwyer Professor of Rural PolicyCo-Director CCRI, University of Gloucestershire
  • Outline• Strategic needs: Challenges for agriculture and rural areas in the EU, 2020 and beyond• Prospects for the English uplands and the commons• The role of current policy – successes and messes…..• The CAP reform process: likely outcomes at EU and England levels• Reflections on possible tactics and priorities
  • EC Challenges and Opportunities(courtesy Martin Scheele, DG Agri) Biodiversity Habitats Economic Viability Food Bioeenergy Biomass Climate Change Resource- Supply Chain management Integration
  • Strategic challenges: EUagriculture & rural areas• Increasing fossil fuel prices – higher global demand, lower / more costly / less secure supplies• Growing global food demand (+70% by 2050)• Climate change - pressures from temperature and rainfall shifts• Demographic change – shrinking workforce, ageing population• Continuing austerity in public finances – reduced financing for land and people?
  • EU regions: climate change vulnerability highest negative impact medium negative impact low negative impact no/marginal impact low positive impact No data* reduced data* ESPON CLIMATE study
  • EU: Implications for rural activities & resources• Agriculture and the food sector must become much more resource-efficient: using fewer non- renewable inputs, conserving carbon, soil and water, and reducing or eliminating waste
  • • ‘Multi-functionality’ of rural land must be maintained & increased, taking on energy generation and non-food products, AND sustaining food production and leisure (all these demands will not shrink, but grow)• Ecosystem services (water, carbon) will require long-term planning and much better ground-level co-ordination between actors and policies
  • • Rural communities will face reduced central support, but enhanced information:- Eroding transport options- Increased scope for distance learning and exchange of ideas- Continuing challenges from ageing: capacity to cope- Some ‘renewal’ via in-migration (potential social, environmental and economic gains)
  • Prospects for farming andthe commons• Higher prices for finished products, but also for inputs – low energy / lower-input systems favoured• Strong public support for land management, access, but poor understanding of issues• Juggling to survive?: most farm household incomes are diverse – this need won’t go away
  • Prospects for farming andthe commons• Pressures and opportunities from other land uses – energy, carbon?• Continued growth in local food networks but barriers to access / lack of capacity to respond?
  • The role of policyCAP Single Payment Scheme – has underpinnedfarm incomes for many decades, in SW uplands andfor most sheep and beef farms across the regionFor many, SPS aid has reduced since 2000 in realterms due to growing modulation and exchange rateeffects (though some upswing in recent years)Agri-environment – most farms now in schemes,but lots of issues about proper design and deliverytailored to local conditionsDisease control policy uses ‘all or nothing’ tactics,insensitive to wider impacts, ineffective at control….
  • Policy: successes &messes• A legacy of environmental management: long- term commitment to commons, better legislation• Strong regional actors and networks borne of the many ‘partnerships’ in recent yearsBUT• Too many disconnected schemes and initiatives acting in opposite ways – SPS and BTB versus ES/UES, RDPE versus laissez-faire approach to market concentration, housing, transport – The mix is a mess: is this promoting resilience at a local level?
  • CAP reform – where are we?• Main thrust of these reforms was about redistribution across the EU = more funding, more access to Pillar 1 support for new Member States• Greening seen as a necessary ingredient for interest groups in the EU-15• There is agreement on both these principles, but no one wants to lose out• Difficult wider financial climate, but most countries not (yet?) willing to make big changes
  • CAP reform – where are we?• Cyprus presidency (2nd half of 2012) focused upon securing agreement on the EU budget for 2020 – agreement by end November 2012• European Parliament tabled a large number of proposed amendments – these will take some time to be considered, even if all are rejected• So, new CAP legislation will not be agreed before the new budget: most likely in March 2013, under Irish Presidency – only then will UK funding be fixed
  • Current state of play• Budget – countries split between those wanting increased funding for CAP and those wanting significant cuts, but• 9 October joint statement by French and German Agriculture Ministers confirms a wish to hold to the Commission’s proposal – a freeze in nominal terms (c.7% cut in real terms) – this appears now the most likely outcome
  • Current state of playAllocations and shape of Pillar 1 (SPS),among the Member States• likely to be based upon historic aid amounts, with redistribution towards more ‘equal’ rates per hectare: implies a modest cut for UK farmers• BUT this doesn’t include modulation – England currently takes 20% from pillar 1 to fund pillar 2• Defra is committed to continuing modulation: at present, max. proposed rate is 10% but this could be increased / made more flexible
  • Current state of playAllocations and shape of Pillar 2 aids (RDP),among the Member States• likely to be based upon historic aid / spending, some adjustment (upwards, for UK) to include more ‘objective’ criteria - i.e. not much change to the basic allocationBUTRDPE is almost 50% funded by modulation:Reduced modulation to 10% could prevent anymore new agreements in ES
  • Pillar 1• 30% SPS conditional on ‘greening’ is accepted as a principle, but big arguments now about what it should mean• UK doesn’t like the EC options, not least because it can’t actually monitor and control them (more disallowance)• RPA functions may be outsourced – opportunity or threat? Better maps would help…• Possibility of ELS elements / some other basic model being accepted as ‘greening equivalence’ (reduces need for modulation)?
  • Pillar 2• Likely to be agreed more or less unchanged from the draft regulations• Fewer measures, each more flexible than the current measures• Higher rates of co-financing for certain types: young farmers, collaborative groups, ‘innovation partnerships’• At least 25% of spending must go to climate change action and/or agri-environment• Assumption of multiple measures to reach strategic goals: scope for more integrated approaches, going forwards?
  • New Pillar 2 measures„Co-operation’ article 36: funding to help set upgroups (which can get higher co-funding)• Partnerships among different actors in the agriculture and food chain or forestry sector and/or with other actors, to contribute to the aims of rural development policy• Creation of clusters and networks• For pilot projects, new products and processes, sharing facilities, short supply chains, local markets, also landscape or water management groups• Can fund meetings, equipment, visits, market research, facilitation support, for up to 7 years
  • New Pillar 2 MeasuresEuropean Innovation PartnershipAn initiative to attempt to stimulate a ‘step-change’ in EU farming practice towardsgreater sustainability and competitiveness• Funding for bringing together farmers, advisors and scientists to work in communities of practice, to address key challenges (climate, biodiversity, water, renewable energies, ecosystem services)
  • Farmers NGOs Advisors Agri- EIPbusiness Operational Researchers GroupNetworking support from the centre,higher co-financing,a ‘prize’ for exceptional progress
  • Timetable for the RDP• If agreement in March, Defra must draft the RDP by August 2013• The EU will publish implementing regulations in summer 2013: can’t submit RDP before these• RDP approval time at the Commission could be up to 8 months: RDP launched spring 2014 at the earliest: more likely summer ?There will be a gap between spending on the current programme and the new one
  • Reflections:SW Uplands have been building capacity,partnerships
  • Reflections on tactics: sortingthe mess• We need smarter policies which acknowledge multiple goals, and use integrated planning & delivery - join up environment , people and economy• We need to control and reduce the weight of controls and bureaucracy – make policies closer to the beneficiary, more flexible, learn from on-the-ground experience• We need to incentivise experimentation - learning, doing things differently, building confidence to act- consider the plumber… local tailoring doesn’thave to mean higher costs
  • Pointers for a new recipe?• Defra and national agencies are experimenting with pilots at ‘landscape scale’ – these are welcome, but constrained• Local and regional networks seem stranded, or disempowered by constant cycles of institutional reorganisation – the best knowledge is probably NOT in Defra (or agencies?), now• Pillar 2 offers scope for new groups to pick up the EU agenda, build on local partnerships and promote new approaches• The centre needs to ‘loosen the reins’ of control
  • The role of policy: enabling“a supportive and responsive government is requiredat a UK, devolved and local level. Action on all theselevels is needed to: address regional level inequalities;build capacity in local communities; and mitigateagainst any unintended consequences of macro levelpolicies at a local level.” Carnegie Trust, 2012- This was written about rural communities; but the same might equally be said about future farm policies
  • Thank you