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Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
Export Council Feb 8 New
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Export Council Feb 8 New

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  • 1. WASHINGTON STATE DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE Washington State Export Trends Update through November 2010 YTD Spencer Cohen Research Manager 8 February 2011
  • 2. Data Issues• We use data provided by WISER Trade, a wholesale distributor of U.S. Census Bureau data. • Today we’ll review data through November 2010.• Data is pretty reliable, but some issues we need to correct for.• Services exports not trackable at state level.
  • 3. Merchandise and Commodities Exports by Segment 1996 to November 2010 YTD 60 Largely driven by Chinese Billions USD soy bean consumption. 50 Correction of $5.7 billion 40 TOTAL, no corrections TOTAL, corrected 30 Aerospace Non-aerospace, non- 20 agriculture Agriculture and food 10 0Data source: WISER Trade
  • 4. Washington Quarterly Exports • Total Washington exports By segment dropped at tail-end of 18 “official” U.S. recession Billions USD Official period of recession and have since recovered. 16 However, much of this drop due to decline in 14 aerospace exports. 12 10 Total Total, corrected 8 Aerospace Non-aerospace, non-agriculture 6 AGR and FOOD 4 2 0Data source: WISER Trade
  • 5. • Washington total exports have been outpaced by the Year-over-Year (YoY) Changes U.S. the past three quarters, but this primarily driven by declines in aerospace 50% exports. • Non-aerospace exports 40% The “Great Contraction”— have performed much global trade in manufacturing better. 30% declined 15.5% in 2009, 20% agriculture trade down 3% 10% 0%-10%-20%-30%-40% Washington U.S. Washington non-aerospace exportsData sources: WISER Trade; World Trade Organization.
  • 6. Composition of Exports By quarter70% • Washington’s distribution of exports60% by product has been 50.6% fairly consistent, with50% aerospace constituting more than 50% of total40% exports by quarter Boeing strike (excluding 2008 strike30% period)20% 14.6%10% 11.9% 0% Q4 2006 Q3 2008 Q2 2010 Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2007 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Aerospace Top 10 non-aerospace exports, by 6-digit HS Agriculture and food Q3 2010Data source: WISER Trade
  • 7. Exports through November 2010 Changes and contributions to net change, by 10 largest export products for Nov 2010 YTD Major Product Category NOV 2009 YTD NOV 2010 YTD CHANGE Contribution to (2-digit HS Codes) Change* TOTAL 41,141,985,563 41,779,993,916 638,008,353 -- Aircraft, Spacecraft, and Parts Thereof 23,373,694,941 20,820,804,810 -2,552,890,131 -85.4% Industrial Machinery, Including Computers 1,469,824,935 1,855,088,797 385,263,862 10.6% Electric Machinery; Sound Equip; TV Equip; Parts 1,460,519,122 1,681,152,670 220,633,548 6.1% Mineral Fuel, Oil; Bitumin Substances; Mineral Wax 1,612,606,793 1,644,675,972 32,069,179 0.9% Optic, Photo; Medical or Surgical Instruments 1,327,782,458 1,489,185,900 161,403,442 4.4% Wood and Articles of Wood; Wood Charcoal 782,103,320 1,176,349,380 394,246,060 10.9% Cereals (Wheat and Meslin) 1,070,782,859 1,165,722,723 94,939,864 2.6% Inorganic Chemicals; Precious & Rare-Earth 751,524,408 1,116,416,203 364,891,795 10.1% Metals & Radioactive Compounds Edible Fruit & Nuts; Citrus Fruit or Melon Peel 819,021,202 850,004,478 30,983,276 0.9% Iron and Steel 516,960,189 805,803,359 288,843,170 8.0%*Based on share of gross, year-to-year gains or losses,depending on direction of year-to-year change.Data source: WISER Trade
  • 8. Aerospace Exports Top Markets Largest Markets, Nov 2010 YTD China Japan Ireland November 2010 YTDIndonesia November 2009 YTD Qatar 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Billions USD Largest Absolute Increases, November 2010 YTD • Overall aerospace exports down Indonesia Turkey 10.9%, driven by declines of Qatar 69.2% UAE (21.5% of total Germany Malaysia decline) and 92.3% to France JapanEthiopia (New) (17.1% of total decline). Norway Egypt • Sales to Indonesia grew 236.2%. China 0 500 1,000 1,500 Millions USDData source: WISER Trade
  • 9. Five Largest Markets for Washington Exports Total exports $6.1 • In any given year, Washington’s Canada top 10 largest markets $6.3 combined have averaged $5.1 roughly 2/3 of all state goods China exports. $5.9 • All top five markets have shown $4.2 Japan growth over 2009, though some $4.9 of these mainly due to aerospace (e.g. Indonesia) $1.4 Korea, Republic of • Exports to China grew at per $1.8 annum rate of 14.0% from 2000- $0.7 2009. Indonesia $1.8 Billions USD November 2009 YTD November 2010 YTDData source: WISER Trade
  • 10. Non-aerospace, Non-agriculture Exports NOV 2010 YTD compared with NOV 2009 YTD • 46% of ALL GROWTH from $4.3 Canada three countries: Canada $4.8 (contributed 16.7%), China (16.6%), and Japan $1.4 China (12.7%). $1.9 • Exports to China grew at $1.2 per annum rate of 14.0% Japan from 2000-2009. $1.6 • Exports to China have $0.6 grown more than 500% Korea, Republic of $0.7 from 2000 to 2009—an average annual rate of $0.4 22%. Taiwan $0.7 Billions USD November 2009 YTD November 2010 YTDData source: WISER Trade
  • 11. Washington’s Top Five Agriculture and Food Export Markets • Overall food and agriculture $1,138 exports grew 12.5% through Japan November 2010 over same $1,251 period in 2009, and 8.0% per $944 year from 2000-2009. Canada $1,012 • Among top five markets, Philippines led with 27.7% $225 growth , followed by MexicoPhilippines (11.1%). $288 • China was sixth largest market, $276 and grew 41.9% (averaged Taiwan $283 15.8% growth per year 2000- 2009). $246 Mexico $274 Billions USD November 2009 YTD November 2010 YTDData source: WISER Trade
  • 12. Non-Aerospace Exports by Product and Market Largest absolute increases, NOV 2010 YTD compared with NOV 2009 YTD Country Product (6-digit HS Code) Change, 2010-2011 Absolute Increase CHINA Coniferous Wood in the Rough, Not Treated 831.9% 233,293,828 CHINA Silicon Contain by Weight Nt < 99.99% Of Silicon 357.9% 112,888,315 JAPAN Medicaments Nesoi, Measured Doses, Retail Packaged Nesoi No Exports in 2010 105,844,876 SINGAPORE Silicon Contain By Wt Nt < 99.99% Of Silicon 6481.4% 90,221,702 CHINA Copper Ores and Concentrates 74.7% 87,493,877 TAIWAN Ferrous Waste & Scrap Nesoi 581.6% 81,704,378 JAPAN Uranium Enriched in U235; Plutonium 42.4% 66,679,440 CAN Light Oils& Prep (Not Crude) from Petrol & Bitum 49.8% 66,394,060 TAIWAN Machines for Man. Semicondutor Devices/Elec IC 371.4% 58,580,554 CHINA Mink Furskins, Raw, Whole 63.4% 56,696,018 • Of Washington’s top 50 non-aerospace product- markets, 14 were in Canada. • Ultrasound equipment sales to China grew 22% over first 11 months of 2009 ($90.2 million YTD)Data source: WISER Trade
  • 13. Texas 27.0% State Exports California 19.8% Year-over-year change (YoY) Illinois 19.3% Florida 17.9% • November 2010 YTD (RHS) New York 15.5% • Note: Washington exports are Washington… 1.6% corrected here, but Illinois data is … raw and undercounts exports of TOTAL ALL STATES 21.3% soy. Texas 23.6% 28.3% • Non-aerospace, non-agriculture TOTAL ALL STATES 22.5% 24.5% (LHS) Illinois 27.0% 23.0% • Top 5 states (by total exports), 21.0% California 22.4% plus U.S. and Washington. Florida 22.9% 19.2% New York 19.1% 17.1% Q3 2010 YoY … November 2010 YTD Washington 11.5% YoY change 20.1%Data sources: WISER Trade; U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 14. Role of Exports in Washington As percentage of gross business revenue45% • The long-term trend40% 38.8% is a continuing and35% growing reliance on exports in the30% 28.8% manufacturing25% sector. 22.7%20% 15.4%15% GOODS SECTOR MFG SECTOR10% MFG minus aerospace Linear (MFG SECTOR) 5% 0% 2005 Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q4 2006 Q1 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2007 Q1 2007 Q2 2007 Q3 2007 Q4 2008 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2009 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2010 Q1 2010 Q2 2005 Q3 2006 Q2Data sources: WISER Trade; Washington State Dept. of Revenue.
  • 15. Possible Future Scenarios That Could ImpactWashington Exports• China allows the RMB to float (+, but unlikely) • Though the government could still counteract this measure by lowering domestic interest rates to support tradable goods sector, and maintain under pricing of many other inputs, e.g. land and energy (-)• U.S.-South Korea FTA (+, though not clear yet to what extent)• Fed slow to contract U.S. money supply post-recovery, lets dollar depreciate, boon to exporters (+)• Series of “trade wars” and wave of currency depreciations (especially if China continues to keep RMB undervalued), pushing adjustment from one country to the next (“beggar they neighbor” scenario) (-)• More 787 delays (-)
  • 16. Commerce Quarterly Trade Bulletin• Quarterly publication that reviews most recent export trends, downloadable from Commerce website.• Interviews with companies and stakeholders, e.g. CEO of Expeditors International (December/January issue), exporting SMEs (all issues), and CEOs of Ports of Seattle and Tacoma (March 2011 issue).• More than 8,000 direct recipients, and growing.
  • 17. Appendix
  • 18. Overview of Data• We use data provided by WISER Trade, a wholesale distributor of U.S. Census Bureau data.• Full 2010 not yet available, so today we’ll work with November year-to-date data.• Data is state-of-origin, based on filing of exporter in customs declaration form.• In theory, above definition excludes all goods that originate elsewhere in the U.S. and only pass through Washington, and includes goods from Washington that ship from ports outside the state. • But, definition of “state-of-origin” includes where product is consolidated prior to export, so includes soy beans, corn, and rice, which are not grown in Washington • Magnitude of distortion: Washington was credited with $3.7 billion in soy bean exports in 2009, equal to 34% of total agriculture exports, and more than ten times amount credited to Iowa and three times Illinois. • In the Commerce Quarterly Trade Bulletin, and throughout this presentation, we attempt to correct for this distortion
  • 19. Services Exports• Data is only for merchandise and commodities—it does not include services (e.g. Microsoft products, online sales, legal services, royalties, expenditures by foreign nationals, foreign students, architecture services, etc.). • 2002 Input-Output Model estimates state services exports of $16.9 billion, but we think this number has increased since then.• Problem—no method/data that enables us to track services exports annually • Input-Output Model every five years, with significant time lag (e.g. 2002 model not released until 2008, due to breadth of survey, data source triangulation, and timing of U.S. Economic Census). • U.S. national services exports data not very good right now (only simple breakdown by type)• Nonetheless, services exports critical to state economy.

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