WALSH, Michael, Former Chairman of the Board, International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

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WALSH, Michael, Former Chairman of the Board, International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

  1. 1. The Global Context: LessonsAnd Update From The US And Abroad October 30, 2012 Michael P. Walsh International Consultant Founding Chairman, International Council on Clean Transportation 1
  2. 2. Particulate Emissions By Road Vehicle Type Base CaseMillion Metric Tons2.5 2 MC1.5 HDT MDGT MDT 1 LDDV LDGV0.5 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
  3. 3. Health effects of fine particles• Breathing fine particles (PM (PM2.5) )2.5 causes adverse effects on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems• Ambient (outdoor) PM2.5 exposures are linked to – Premature death – Heart attacks – Strokes – Hospital and emergency room visits – Acute and chronic bronchitis – Asthma-related effects – PM2.5 may also be associated with infant mortality, low birth weight, and cancer 5
  4. 4. BC: Linking Climate and Air Pollution• Black Carbon (BC) is part of the air pollution mixture known as particulate matter (PM) – Most strongly light-absorbing component of PM – Formed by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, biofuels, and biomass, and is a major component of “soot” – Mainly found in the fine particle (PM2.5) fraction, which is most strongly linked to adverse health effects 6
  5. 5. Diesel Vehicles and Engines are IdealCandidates for Black Carbon Control • Very high ratio of Black Carbon to Organic Carbon • Ubiquitous • Control Technology Exists • Substantial Health Co- Benefits
  6. 6. Technology Now Exists To Clean Vehicles U.S. and Europe Heavy-Duty Engine Transient Cycle Emission Standardsg/kWh 3.50 Diesel NOx Diesel PM X 100 4 3.0 3.0 3.5 3 2.00 2.5 1.50 2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.5 0.65 0.40 0.26 1 0.5 0 Euro IV Euro V Euro VI U.S. 2007 U.S. 2010 U.S. 2010 2005 2008 2013 (max (std.) NOx) Euro VI includes particle number limit
  7. 7. Forecast: Transportation Will Continue To Be A MajorEnergy Consumer Going Forward Without Strong Action • The transportation sector consumes the majority of liquid fuels • The transportation sector is expected to grow in its consumption of liquid fuels, as well as its share of total consumption Data from: US Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook 2011. [Report number DOE/EIA-0484(2011)]. – Reference Case Available online: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/
  8. 8. Improving Fuel Efficiency/GHG Emissions Optimize driver Improve Reduce engine vehicle Improve vehicle and trailer aerodynamics behavior efficiency weight Reduce Improve Reduce rolling drivetrain auxiliary resistance efficiency loadsSlide 11
  9. 9. US Technology Assessment National Academy of Sciences Report (March 2010) found 35 – 50% improvement could be achieved in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe National Academy of Sciences (2010) FIGURE S-1 Comparison of 2015-2020 New Vehicle Potential Fuel Savings Technology for Seven Vehicle Types: Tractor Trailer (TT), Class 3-6 Box (Box), Class 3-6 Bucket (Bucket), Class 8 Refuse (Refuse), Transit Bus (Bus), Motor Coach (Coach), and Class 2b Pickups and Vans (2b). Also, for each vehicle class, the fuel consumption benefit of theSlide 12combined technology packages is calculated as follows: % FCpackage = 1 – (1 - %FCtech 1)(1 - %FCtech2)(1 - %FCtech N) where %FCtech x is the percent benefit of an individual technology. SOURCE: TIAX (2009) ES-4.
  10. 10. Global Regulatory Landscape For Heavy Duty Fuel Economy/GHG ControlsCountry/R Regulation 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 egion Type Regulation implemented starting MY Fuel Japan 2015 economy United GHG/Fuel Standard Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 ( Final rule States efficiency proposal mandatory DOT program starts MY 2016) GHG/Fuel Standard Canada Final rule Regulation implemented starting MY 2014 efficiency proposal Test Industry Regulation implemented starting MY Fuel Standard China procedure standard Final rule 2015 consumption proposal finalized proposal TestEuropean Mandatory efficiency reporting and GHG Technical studies procedure Union regulatory development finalized Additional reqs. for End-user Requirements for tractors and Additional reqs. for existing tractors existing trailers andCalifornia purchase trailers (MY 2011+) and trailers (<MY 2010) reefers (<MY 2010) requirements 13
  11. 11. Total Heavy-duty Vehicle CO2 Emissions 7.0 Japan, Canada, EU Adopted US 2014-2018 HDV 6.0 China Phase I HDV China Phase II HDV 5.0 Mexico 2015-2018 HDV Gt CO2e Vehicle Potential (3.5% APR) Activity Potential 4.0 Global HDV Emissions 3.0 2.0 1.0 - 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
  12. 12. Advanced CriticalTechnologies in the Longer Term
  13. 13. US Fuel Cell Bus Projects Source: http://www.nrel.gov/hydrogen/proj_fc_bus_eval.html
  14. 14. Application: Buses BC Transit: Fuel Cell Bus Fleet Fleet of 20 hydrogen fuel cell buses in Whistler, BC.
  15. 15. Transit Agencies in CA Operating ZBuses SF Muni: ~330 electric trolley buses in service AC Transit: 3 fuel cell buses in service since March 2006, will lead Zero Emission Bay Area (ZEBA) demonstration of 12 next-generation fuel cell buses Santa Clara VTA and Samtrans: 3 fuel cell buses operated between February 2005 and December 2009 Foothill Transit: battery elec. Ecoliner Burbank Bus: recently put a plug-in fuel cell bus into service SunLine Transit: H2 buses in service since 2005. 3 ZBuses operating
  16. 16. The HyRoad: AC Transit’s Hydrogen FuelCell Program 2nd largest transit agency inthe Bay Area 940 km2 service area 69 million riders annually Has been developing fuel cell demonstration program since 2000 3 buses phased into service starting in March 2006 On-site maintenance, 2 fueling stations online Ongoing outside evaluation by National Renewable Energy Lab Public education and community outreach  Educational curriculum for middle and high schools  FC buses designed to be Mobile Learning Centers
  17. 17. The HyRoad: Program Details 3 Van Hool buses, UTC fuel cell, ISE hybrid-electric drive system  Model year 2005  Fuel storage: 50 kg of hydrogen  400-480 km range  Cumulative mileage: more than 395,000 km  More than 623,000 passengers served  65% better fuel economy than diesels (8,200 lb handicap) Chevron hydrogen fueling station opened in November 2005  Natural gas steam reformer generates 150 kg/day  Two new stations
  18. 18. Zero-emission Freight Technologies: Summary Of Ongoing Ce-delft/DLR Project• Technologies with potential for zero on-road emissions – Example projects: • Hytruck (NL); Smith (UK); Gemco e-truck; Zerotruck; eHighway (Siemens); Daimler; in-road charging, etc – Concepts: • Hybrid electric delivery trucks • Battery electric technology for trucks • On-road charging technologies • Hydrogen fuel cell technology – Key questions: • Feasibility • Cost • Infrastructure 21
  19. 19. Questions? Questions? 22

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