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EControls Domestic Heavy-Duty Mobile Natural Gas History, Technology, and Outlook
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EControls Domestic Heavy-Duty Mobile Natural Gas History, Technology, and Outlook

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Kennon Guglielmo, Ph.D. President, EControls CTO, Enovation Controls at NAFA 2013, Fleet Sustainability Session 2

Kennon Guglielmo, Ph.D. President, EControls CTO, Enovation Controls at NAFA 2013, Fleet Sustainability Session 2

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  • 1. April 25, 2013Domestic Heavy-Duty Mobile Natural GasHistory, Technology, and OutlookNAFA Institute & Exposition – Atlantic CityPresenter:Kennon Guglielmo, Ph.D.President, EControlsCTO, Enovation Controls
  • 2. 2A Snapshot of EControls... EControls Served OEM Applications:Heavy-Duty On-Road, Industrial, Marine Complete OEM fuel system provider...MarineIndustrialHeavy-Duty On-RoadElectronic Control ModulesFuel Control Actuators & Sensors
  • 3. 3A Snapshot of EControls... 130,000+ OEM heavy-duty NG systems on the road today Installed base of 1,000,000+ engine control systems Engine development and emissions certification Engine management systems for NG, LPG, Gasoline, Diesel But... for domestic HD NG we have been skeptics for 15 years!
  • 4. 4Early Domestic NG Struggles Why have domestic HD NG engines failed to achieve criticalmass over the last 2 decades ???:Lack of broad-based refueling infrastructureLimited space for long-range fuel storageHigh cost of tankage relative to dieselInsufficient sustained relative cost advantage of NG to diesel Proof of this assessment is the fact that transit buses and wastetrucks are currently the only domestic HD NG success stories:No need for broad-based refueling infrastructurePlenty of room for tankage for all-day operationIncremental cost of tankage a small percentage of total vehicle cost
  • 5. 5Fuel Cost Economics0.002.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.000.0010.0020.0030.0040.0050.0060.0070.0080.0090.00100.00110.001990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012NaturalGaspricein$/MCFOilPricein$/barrelYearHistorical Oil and NG Fuel PricesOil $/barrelNatural Gas $/MCFDomestic shaleproduction hits its stride
  • 6. 60.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.01990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012Oil/NG$/BtuwellheadcostratioYearRelative Energy Cost of Oil and Natural GasFuel Cost Economics< 2:1 ratio insufficient for critical massDomestic shaleproduction hits its strideNon-sustainable > 2:1 ratiotriggers 1990’s activitySustainable > 2:1 ratio willdrive market build-out
  • 7. 7Fuel Cost Economics “We’ve heard it all before”...“As soon as we commit, NG prices will go up”“As soon as we commit, oil prices will drop” Why things are different now (in the last 5 years):Domestic (and worldwide) NG shale plays• Total NG game changer• New fracturing technology allows previously economicallyinconceivable access to NG• Current production capability massively outstrips demand• Future production will continue to outstrip demand• The U.S. has some of the world’s largest fieldsOil price escalation is here to stay• Oil prices failed to even keep up with inflation in the 1990’s –those days are over• China is driving worldwide oil consumption – and will continue to do so
  • 8. 8Critical Fuel System Technologies Major Technology Areas:Vehicle fuel storage type• CNG = Compressed Natural Gas• LNG = Liquefied Natural GasEngine fuel delivery system• Air/Fuel pre-mix• Direct NG injectionEngine ignition system• Spark• Micro-pilot diesel• Standard diesel
  • 9. 9Vehicle Fuel Storage CNG = Compressed Natural Gas (3600 psi gas) ≈ 5:1 tank size for the same diesel rangeLower tank price, but more tanksLeast expensive pump delivery priceUser-friendly fillingIndefinite fuel storage LNG = Liquefied Natural Gas (cryogenic 150 psi liquid) ≈ 2.3:1 tank size for the same diesel rangeHigher tank price, but less tanksMore expensive than CNG at the pumpFilling requires training / safety gearLimited time after filling before tank vents (days to weeks)since tank is essentially a large “thermos” bottle
  • 10. 10Domestic HD NG Engine Availability Cummins ISLG:9L, 6-cylinderSpark ignition (SI)Standard CNG or LNG tank system compatibleUp to 320 bhp, 1000 ft-lbs @ 1300 rpm Cummins ISX12G:12L, 6-cylinderSpark ignition (SI)Standard CNG or LNG tank system compatibleUp to 400 bhp, 1450 ft-lbs @ 1200 rpm Westport HD15:15L, 6-cylinderMicro-pilot diesel compression ignition (CI)Requires special LNG tank system with high-pressure cryogenic pumpUp to 475 bhp, 1750 ft-lbs @ 1200 rpmOnly 3 OEM “Heavy-Duty” NG engines are EPA 2013 certified:
  • 11. 11Initial Truck Cost Considerations Why are HD NG engines so much more expensive than diesel?They should be the same or cheaper because... Spark ignited, pre-mix NG fuel system = HPCR diesel fuel system cost Spark ignited NG engine aftertreatment is about $1000Tier4 diesel aftertreatment is about $6000But... Low volume production by domestic manufacturers = higher cost Extremely limited domestic engine competition = higher cost Domestic market will currently bear a higher price because NG vehicle buyingdecisions are driven by fuel cost advantages – not engine cost What does the fuel storage system cost? Both CNG and LNG tanks are ≈ $100 / diesel gallon equivalent (DGE)in high-volume (i.e. mature market) – current domestic cost is $300 / DGE Mounting brackets and tank to engine plumbing are more expensive than diesel Fuel heat exchangers required on LNG systems, may also be used with CNG No SCR system required for leading technology spark-ignited systems
  • 12. 12NG vs. Diesel Maintenance Cost Differences For spark-ignited engines (Cummins ISLG9, ISX12G):Spark plug changes cost approximately $0.01 per mileNo SCR fluid is required – saving about $0.01 per mileFuel filter changes are typically much less frequentCummins recommends somewhat more frequent oil changesValve adjustment requirements are typically more frequent For compression-ignition engines (Westport HD15):Both diesel and NG fuel filters must be maintainedThe hydraulic system for the cryogenic pump in the LNG tank must bemaintainedSCR is required – costing about $0.01 per mile
  • 13. 13Other Miscellaneous Operating Cost Differences CNG tanks must be replaced every 20 years NG truck weight carrying capacity reduction:CNG tanks add about 10 to 20 lbs per DGE netLNG tanks add about 5 lbs per DGE net On spark ignited engines, there is no DPF or SCR systemto maintain or potentially fail
  • 14. 14Fuel Cost Operating AdvantagesBasic Assumptions:Truck miles per year 100,000 milesDiesel cost 4.00 $/gallonLNG cost per DGE 2.50 $/DGECNG cost per DGE 2.00 $/DGEDiesel fuel economy 7.0 miles/DGENG fuel economy - CI 7.0 miles/DGENG fuel economy - SI 6.3 miles/DGEFuel Operating Cost Advantage Analysis:Truck Premium Diesel Fuel Cost NG Fuel Savings Payback ROI - 5 yearEngine Platform (Initial $) ($ / Year) ($ / Year) (Months) (avg % / year)Westport HD15 (LNG) $90,000 $57,143 $21,429 50 3.8%Cummins ISX12G (CNG) - Current $45,000 $57,143 $25,397 21 36.4%Cummins ISX12G (CNG) - Future/Mature $23,000 $57,143 $25,397 11 90.4%Yuchai 6112 (CNG) – Current $18,000 $57,143 $25,397 9 121.1%
  • 15. 15Payback Sensitivity to Annual Mileage0122436486072Westport HD15 (LNG) Cummins ISX12G (CNG)CurrentCummins ISX12G (CNG)Future/MatureYuchai 6112 (CNG)CurrentPaybackPeriod(Months)80,000 miles/year100,000 miles/year120,000 miles/year