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CALSTART Presentation - Boesel

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  • 1. State of the Industry500e Demo Day @ CALSTART HQApril 30, 2013CALSTART Leadership CircleJune 5, 2013States of the Industry
  • 2. Outline»LDV Developments and Policies»M-HDV Developments andPolicies»Low Carbon Fuel Policy in CA»Building Fleet Momentum»New CALSTART Initiatives
  • 3. Indy Engines Downsizing
  • 4. »Approximately 35% ofnationwide EV sales in CA»Demand for CA EVincentives approx. $1million/week
  • 5. Doing What Kaiser, Tucker, and Bricklin Could Not?
  • 6. What is Propelling CA EV Market?» Widest array of EV products in nation» Financial incentives» HOV lane access» Expanding workplace and public charging» Tesla image – rich, cool, eco» ZEV mandate
  • 7. 2 Bills Pending In CA Legislature - $2Bin Funding for Clean TransportationSB 11 (Pavley, Canella) & AB 8 (Perea, Skinner):Extend CA clean vehicle and fuel incentivefunding thru 2023Join the List of Supporters! Contact: Jamie Hall,CALSTART Policy Directorjhall@calstart.org or (510) 307-8774Senator FranPavleyAssemblymanHenry Perea
  • 8. What is the exit strategy forCA EV incentives?
  • 9. CALSTART Headquarters, Solar Installation Celebration – June 25, 2012Solar Saving $ for CALSTART
  • 10. Is there a market for ZEVcredits?Tesla generated $40 millionin ZEV credit revenue in2012
  • 11. EV Pricing ImprovingElectric Spark - $20,000 after federal tax credit
  • 12. Lease or Buy With or Without Owningthe Battery
  • 13. DC Fast Charger NetworkGrowing Faster Than ExpectedSystem costs dropping – Nissanreports $18K for 440V system
  • 14. » Chrysler/Fiat Partnership with Enterprise» 12 free rental days/year
  • 15. New venture backed byChargepoint and Ecotality tofacilitate interoperability amongEVSEwww.collaboratev.com
  • 16. H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Improving
  • 17. CA Legislation to Extend CA CleanVehicle Incentives»H2 stations - <10% of the funding»But 50% of the questions andcontroversy
  • 18. ARB HVIP Voucher RequestsFY11 and FY12 Programs$0$5,000,000$10,000,000$15,000,000$20,000,000$25,000,000$30,000,000Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Voucher Funding Requested FY11 Program Funding FY12 Program FundingOnly $500,000 remaining inHVIP fund today
  • 19. Hino Hybrid – 2 Year Payback
  • 20. U.S. E-Truck Sales Follow Incentives –NY, MD, CA and ChicagoGovernor Brown at event announcing nation’slargest electric truck fleet – July 2012
  • 21. First Zero Emission Bus in RevenueService in CA’s Central ValleyCEC AB 118 Project
  • 22. BYD Opens E-Bus Plantin California
  • 23. Hybrid + Biodiesel Even BetterPowers Distributing compliments its hybridinvestment with extensive use of bio-diesel fuel,pouring B20 in the warmer summer months and B5in the winter.
  • 24. As Fred Dufour looks out at Monarch Beverage’s diesel fuelingstation, he knows that in only a couple of years, it will nearlybe all gone. “The need for diesel, that is.” -- Trucking Info.,March 19, 2013
  • 25. » 1 million gallons of diesel today» 100,000 gallons of diesel & 85% CNG in 2015 1,500tons fewer of GHG’s by 2015» 60% lower fuel costs per year = $2.5 million in savings» 2.3 year payback
  • 26. North America:Natural Gas Offerings for the TruckingMarket29GVW ≤ 66,000 lbs. ≤ 80,000 lbs. ≥ 80,000 lbs.Engine size 8.9L 11.9L 15LCurrent engines ISL G ISX12 G Westport 15L*Polk database of new truck sales based on 2011 registrations, Westport analysisKenworthT440 T470 T660 T800B T800SH W900S9 9 12 15 12 9/12Peterbilt320 382 384 365 367 386 3889/12 9 9/12 9/12 15 15 15FreightlinerM2 - 112 SD - 114 Cascadia9 9 12VolvoVNM VNL9 12NavistarTranStar9MackGranite / Pinnacle12legend9CWI ISL G 9L12CWI ISX12 G15Westport 15L
  • 27. CNG In A Box
  • 28. »Low NG prices related toincreased supply»30% of USA NG from shalegas
  • 29. Is Fracking Controversy Over?» MIT Study: environmental risks canbe minimal if industry adopts bestpractices» NRDC/EDF and other environmentalgroups remain highly concerned
  • 30. California Hybrid, Efficient AdvancedTruck (CalHEAT) Research CenterComprehensive Study to Determine If andHow Truck Sector Could SignificantlyReduce Emissions by 2030 – and Be OnPathway to Meet State’s 2050 Goalswww.calheat.org
  • 31. 6 Truck Categories – Based on Tech Applicability• Younger Trucks; High Annual VMT• Mostly higher average speed, highway driving• Between cities; Drayage; Day Cabs• Includes second use trucks; trucks with smaller enginesOver the RoadShort Haul/Regional• Cargo, freight, delivery collection• Lower VMT; Lower Average speed; Lots of stop startUrban• Cargo, freight, delivery collection• Higher VMT; Higher Avg speed; Combined urban/ highwayRural/Intracity• Utility trucks, construction, etc.• Lots of idle time; Lots of PTO useWork sitesupport∙ Commercial use; Automotive OEMs & volumesPickups/VansClass 2B/3Class 3-8 Vocational Work TrucksClass 7/8 Tractors
  • 32. Drivetrain Technology AdoptionAll Truck Categories
  • 33. CO2 Reduction from Roadmap
  • 34. EPA/NHTSA Beginning Work Nowon 2nd Round of Truck HDV GHGStandardsCompleted by 2015
  • 35. LCFS Credit Prices - 2012Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013.Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdfGraph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013.Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdf
  • 36. Environmental markets (under “likely”price scenarios) could make up 25%-30% of revenues from dairy biogastransportation fuel project.»Source: ClimateTrust Presentation,May 2013
  • 37. Can fleets helpjumpstart clean fuelvehicle market?
  • 38. Bringing the Products and Info to theFleets» First Regional HTUF Meeting – Birmingham, AL» Date: May 22, 2013» Interest in California Regional Meeting(s) fromseveral organizations» Timing: SoCal – July, NoCal - TBD» New York Regional Meeting» Timing: Aug/Sep 2013Co-Host & Sponsorship opportunities still available!
  • 39. Southeast Regional Fleet MeetingMay 22, 2013 -May 22, 2013
  • 40. NAFA-CALSTART Activities» National Association ofFleet Administrators(NAFA) – nation’slargest fleetorganization» As part of partnership,CALSTART hosted 4-session FleetSustainability Track atNAFA annual Instituteand Expo» Developing fleetsustainability “metrics”for NAFA training,accreditation
  • 41. Fleet Goals From Just One Sector» Coca Cola: Reduce C02 Footprint 15% by 2020» Pepsi: Beginning in 2010 - Grow 3% per yearbut cut oil dependence by 50% by 2020» Monarch Beverage: 85% Natural Gas by 2015
  • 42. Smart Incentives to Move the Market:States LeadingCALSTART Won Contract to Manage New York”s$19M Voucher Incentive Program (NYT VIP) in Junefor hybrid, electric and natural gas trucks
  • 43. CALSTART Investor Council (CIC)new initiative toincreasesuccessful privatesectorinvestment incleantransportationtech
  • 44. Fall HTUF Meeting in MidwestLocation: Chicago, IL Target Timing: Week of Oct 6, ‘13Focus:• CTAG/MTAG updates• WG Meetings/Report-Outs• Enhanced Ride-n-Drive withProduct Showcase• Shift from Conference format Goal: Action & Impact!Get involved by contacting Kimberly Taylorat ktaylor@calstart.org
  • 45. CALSTART HQNor CalOffice Colorado OfficeMidwest OfficeNE OfficeRegional Sounding – Nationally ActingCALSTART Regional Offices
  • 46. Clean Transportation Technologies and Jobs
  • 47. ?’s
  • 48. Cleaner And Betterwww.calstart.orgjboesel@calstart.org
  • 49. Daniel Yergin Lecture» The law of long-term development» Disagree with IEA that 96MBBD will be peakproduction #» 100 year break for EV’s