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State of the Industry500e Demo Day @ CALSTART HQApril 30, 2013CALSTART Leadership CircleJune 5, 2013States of the Industry
Outline»LDV Developments and Policies»M-HDV Developments andPolicies»Low Carbon Fuel Policy in CA»Building Fleet Momentum»...
Indy Engines Downsizing
»Approximately 35% ofnationwide EV sales in CA»Demand for CA EVincentives approx. $1million/week
Doing What Kaiser, Tucker, and Bricklin Could Not?
What is Propelling CA EV Market?» Widest array of EV products in nation» Financial incentives» HOV lane access» Expanding ...
2 Bills Pending In CA Legislature - $2Bin Funding for Clean TransportationSB 11 (Pavley, Canella) & AB 8 (Perea, Skinner):...
What is the exit strategy forCA EV incentives?
CALSTART Headquarters, Solar Installation Celebration – June 25, 2012Solar Saving $ for CALSTART
Is there a market for ZEVcredits?Tesla generated $40 millionin ZEV credit revenue in2012
EV Pricing ImprovingElectric Spark - $20,000 after federal tax credit
Lease or Buy With or Without Owningthe Battery
DC Fast Charger NetworkGrowing Faster Than ExpectedSystem costs dropping – Nissanreports $18K for 440V system
» Chrysler/Fiat Partnership with Enterprise» 12 free rental days/year
New venture backed byChargepoint and Ecotality tofacilitate interoperability amongEVSEwww.collaboratev.com
H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Improving
CA Legislation to Extend CA CleanVehicle Incentives»H2 stations - <10% of the funding»But 50% of the questions andcontrove...
ARB HVIP Voucher RequestsFY11 and FY12 Programs$0$5,000,000$10,000,000$15,000,000$20,000,000$25,000,000$30,000,000Feb-11Ma...
Hino Hybrid – 2 Year Payback
U.S. E-Truck Sales Follow Incentives –NY, MD, CA and ChicagoGovernor Brown at event announcing nation’slargest electric tr...
First Zero Emission Bus in RevenueService in CA’s Central ValleyCEC AB 118 Project
BYD Opens E-Bus Plantin California
Hybrid + Biodiesel Even BetterPowers Distributing compliments its hybridinvestment with extensive use of bio-diesel fuel,p...
As Fred Dufour looks out at Monarch Beverage’s diesel fuelingstation, he knows that in only a couple of years, it will nea...
» 1 million gallons of diesel today» 100,000 gallons of diesel & 85% CNG in 2015 1,500tons fewer of GHG’s by 2015» 60% low...
North America:Natural Gas Offerings for the TruckingMarket29GVW ≤ 66,000 lbs. ≤ 80,000 lbs. ≥ 80,000 lbs.Engine size 8.9L ...
CNG In A Box
»Low NG prices related toincreased supply»30% of USA NG from shalegas
Is Fracking Controversy Over?» MIT Study: environmental risks canbe minimal if industry adopts bestpractices» NRDC/EDF and...
California Hybrid, Efficient AdvancedTruck (CalHEAT) Research CenterComprehensive Study to Determine If andHow Truck Secto...
6 Truck Categories – Based on Tech Applicability• Younger Trucks; High Annual VMT• Mostly higher average speed, highway dr...
Drivetrain Technology AdoptionAll Truck Categories
CO2 Reduction from Roadmap
EPA/NHTSA Beginning Work Nowon 2nd Round of Truck HDV GHGStandardsCompleted by 2015
LCFS Credit Prices - 2012Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spri...
Environmental markets (under “likely”price scenarios) could make up 25%-30% of revenues from dairy biogastransportation fu...
Can fleets helpjumpstart clean fuelvehicle market?
Bringing the Products and Info to theFleets» First Regional HTUF Meeting – Birmingham, AL» Date: May 22, 2013» Interest in...
Southeast Regional Fleet MeetingMay 22, 2013 -May 22, 2013
NAFA-CALSTART Activities» National Association ofFleet Administrators(NAFA) – nation’slargest fleetorganization» As part o...
Fleet Goals From Just One Sector» Coca Cola: Reduce C02 Footprint 15% by 2020» Pepsi: Beginning in 2010 - Grow 3% per year...
Smart Incentives to Move the Market:States LeadingCALSTART Won Contract to Manage New York”s$19M Voucher Incentive Program...
CALSTART Investor Council (CIC)new initiative toincreasesuccessful privatesectorinvestment incleantransportationtech
Fall HTUF Meeting in MidwestLocation: Chicago, IL Target Timing: Week of Oct 6, ‘13Focus:• CTAG/MTAG updates• WG Meetings/...
CALSTART HQNor CalOffice Colorado OfficeMidwest OfficeNE OfficeRegional Sounding – Nationally ActingCALSTART Regional Offi...
Clean Transportation Technologies and Jobs
?’s
Cleaner And Betterwww.calstart.orgjboesel@calstart.org
Daniel Yergin Lecture» The law of long-term development» Disagree with IEA that 96MBBD will be peakproduction #» 100 year ...
CALSTART Presentation - Boesel
CALSTART Presentation - Boesel
CALSTART Presentation - Boesel
CALSTART Presentation - Boesel
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CALSTART Presentation - Boesel

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Transcript of "CALSTART Presentation - Boesel"

  1. 1. State of the Industry500e Demo Day @ CALSTART HQApril 30, 2013CALSTART Leadership CircleJune 5, 2013States of the Industry
  2. 2. Outline»LDV Developments and Policies»M-HDV Developments andPolicies»Low Carbon Fuel Policy in CA»Building Fleet Momentum»New CALSTART Initiatives
  3. 3. Indy Engines Downsizing
  4. 4. »Approximately 35% ofnationwide EV sales in CA»Demand for CA EVincentives approx. $1million/week
  5. 5. Doing What Kaiser, Tucker, and Bricklin Could Not?
  6. 6. What is Propelling CA EV Market?» Widest array of EV products in nation» Financial incentives» HOV lane access» Expanding workplace and public charging» Tesla image – rich, cool, eco» ZEV mandate
  7. 7. 2 Bills Pending In CA Legislature - $2Bin Funding for Clean TransportationSB 11 (Pavley, Canella) & AB 8 (Perea, Skinner):Extend CA clean vehicle and fuel incentivefunding thru 2023Join the List of Supporters! Contact: Jamie Hall,CALSTART Policy Directorjhall@calstart.org or (510) 307-8774Senator FranPavleyAssemblymanHenry Perea
  8. 8. What is the exit strategy forCA EV incentives?
  9. 9. CALSTART Headquarters, Solar Installation Celebration – June 25, 2012Solar Saving $ for CALSTART
  10. 10. Is there a market for ZEVcredits?Tesla generated $40 millionin ZEV credit revenue in2012
  11. 11. EV Pricing ImprovingElectric Spark - $20,000 after federal tax credit
  12. 12. Lease or Buy With or Without Owningthe Battery
  13. 13. DC Fast Charger NetworkGrowing Faster Than ExpectedSystem costs dropping – Nissanreports $18K for 440V system
  14. 14. » Chrysler/Fiat Partnership with Enterprise» 12 free rental days/year
  15. 15. New venture backed byChargepoint and Ecotality tofacilitate interoperability amongEVSEwww.collaboratev.com
  16. 16. H2 Fuel Cell Vehicle Technology Improving
  17. 17. CA Legislation to Extend CA CleanVehicle Incentives»H2 stations - <10% of the funding»But 50% of the questions andcontroversy
  18. 18. ARB HVIP Voucher RequestsFY11 and FY12 Programs$0$5,000,000$10,000,000$15,000,000$20,000,000$25,000,000$30,000,000Feb-11Mar-11Apr-11May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11Oct-11Nov-11Dec-11Jan-12Feb-12Mar-12Apr-12May-12Jun-12Jul-12Aug-12Sep-12Oct-12Nov-12Dec-12Jan-13Feb-13Mar-13Apr-13May-13Jun-13Jul-13Voucher Funding Requested FY11 Program Funding FY12 Program FundingOnly $500,000 remaining inHVIP fund today
  19. 19. Hino Hybrid – 2 Year Payback
  20. 20. U.S. E-Truck Sales Follow Incentives –NY, MD, CA and ChicagoGovernor Brown at event announcing nation’slargest electric truck fleet – July 2012
  21. 21. First Zero Emission Bus in RevenueService in CA’s Central ValleyCEC AB 118 Project
  22. 22. BYD Opens E-Bus Plantin California
  23. 23. Hybrid + Biodiesel Even BetterPowers Distributing compliments its hybridinvestment with extensive use of bio-diesel fuel,pouring B20 in the warmer summer months and B5in the winter.
  24. 24. As Fred Dufour looks out at Monarch Beverage’s diesel fuelingstation, he knows that in only a couple of years, it will nearlybe all gone. “The need for diesel, that is.” -- Trucking Info.,March 19, 2013
  25. 25. » 1 million gallons of diesel today» 100,000 gallons of diesel & 85% CNG in 2015 1,500tons fewer of GHG’s by 2015» 60% lower fuel costs per year = $2.5 million in savings» 2.3 year payback
  26. 26. North America:Natural Gas Offerings for the TruckingMarket29GVW ≤ 66,000 lbs. ≤ 80,000 lbs. ≥ 80,000 lbs.Engine size 8.9L 11.9L 15LCurrent engines ISL G ISX12 G Westport 15L*Polk database of new truck sales based on 2011 registrations, Westport analysisKenworthT440 T470 T660 T800B T800SH W900S9 9 12 15 12 9/12Peterbilt320 382 384 365 367 386 3889/12 9 9/12 9/12 15 15 15FreightlinerM2 - 112 SD - 114 Cascadia9 9 12VolvoVNM VNL9 12NavistarTranStar9MackGranite / Pinnacle12legend9CWI ISL G 9L12CWI ISX12 G15Westport 15L
  27. 27. CNG In A Box
  28. 28. »Low NG prices related toincreased supply»30% of USA NG from shalegas
  29. 29. Is Fracking Controversy Over?» MIT Study: environmental risks canbe minimal if industry adopts bestpractices» NRDC/EDF and other environmentalgroups remain highly concerned
  30. 30. California Hybrid, Efficient AdvancedTruck (CalHEAT) Research CenterComprehensive Study to Determine If andHow Truck Sector Could SignificantlyReduce Emissions by 2030 – and Be OnPathway to Meet State’s 2050 Goalswww.calheat.org
  31. 31. 6 Truck Categories – Based on Tech Applicability• Younger Trucks; High Annual VMT• Mostly higher average speed, highway driving• Between cities; Drayage; Day Cabs• Includes second use trucks; trucks with smaller enginesOver the RoadShort Haul/Regional• Cargo, freight, delivery collection• Lower VMT; Lower Average speed; Lots of stop startUrban• Cargo, freight, delivery collection• Higher VMT; Higher Avg speed; Combined urban/ highwayRural/Intracity• Utility trucks, construction, etc.• Lots of idle time; Lots of PTO useWork sitesupport∙ Commercial use; Automotive OEMs & volumesPickups/VansClass 2B/3Class 3-8 Vocational Work TrucksClass 7/8 Tractors
  32. 32. Drivetrain Technology AdoptionAll Truck Categories
  33. 33. CO2 Reduction from Roadmap
  34. 34. EPA/NHTSA Beginning Work Nowon 2nd Round of Truck HDV GHGStandardsCompleted by 2015
  35. 35. LCFS Credit Prices - 2012Graph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013.Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdfGraph taken from Yeh, Sonia, et al.“Status Review of California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard – Spring 2013.” April 2013.Available online at http://info.argusmedia.com/uslib/ArgusWebinar_CaliforniasLCFS_Economicsandtradeprospects.pdf
  36. 36. Environmental markets (under “likely”price scenarios) could make up 25%-30% of revenues from dairy biogastransportation fuel project.»Source: ClimateTrust Presentation,May 2013
  37. 37. Can fleets helpjumpstart clean fuelvehicle market?
  38. 38. Bringing the Products and Info to theFleets» First Regional HTUF Meeting – Birmingham, AL» Date: May 22, 2013» Interest in California Regional Meeting(s) fromseveral organizations» Timing: SoCal – July, NoCal - TBD» New York Regional Meeting» Timing: Aug/Sep 2013Co-Host & Sponsorship opportunities still available!
  39. 39. Southeast Regional Fleet MeetingMay 22, 2013 -May 22, 2013
  40. 40. NAFA-CALSTART Activities» National Association ofFleet Administrators(NAFA) – nation’slargest fleetorganization» As part of partnership,CALSTART hosted 4-session FleetSustainability Track atNAFA annual Instituteand Expo» Developing fleetsustainability “metrics”for NAFA training,accreditation
  41. 41. Fleet Goals From Just One Sector» Coca Cola: Reduce C02 Footprint 15% by 2020» Pepsi: Beginning in 2010 - Grow 3% per yearbut cut oil dependence by 50% by 2020» Monarch Beverage: 85% Natural Gas by 2015
  42. 42. Smart Incentives to Move the Market:States LeadingCALSTART Won Contract to Manage New York”s$19M Voucher Incentive Program (NYT VIP) in Junefor hybrid, electric and natural gas trucks
  43. 43. CALSTART Investor Council (CIC)new initiative toincreasesuccessful privatesectorinvestment incleantransportationtech
  44. 44. Fall HTUF Meeting in MidwestLocation: Chicago, IL Target Timing: Week of Oct 6, ‘13Focus:• CTAG/MTAG updates• WG Meetings/Report-Outs• Enhanced Ride-n-Drive withProduct Showcase• Shift from Conference format Goal: Action & Impact!Get involved by contacting Kimberly Taylorat ktaylor@calstart.org
  45. 45. CALSTART HQNor CalOffice Colorado OfficeMidwest OfficeNE OfficeRegional Sounding – Nationally ActingCALSTART Regional Offices
  46. 46. Clean Transportation Technologies and Jobs
  47. 47. ?’s
  48. 48. Cleaner And Betterwww.calstart.orgjboesel@calstart.org
  49. 49. Daniel Yergin Lecture» The law of long-term development» Disagree with IEA that 96MBBD will be peakproduction #» 100 year break for EV’s

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