E-Truck Task Force: Draft Findings, Recommendations

1. E-Truck Task Force:
Draft Findings, Recommendations
Clean Transportation
Technologies and
SolutionsSM
Bill Van Amburg, Senior Vice President
Whitney Pitkanen, Project Manager
Jean-Baptiste Gallo, Assoc Project Manager
HTUF 2011 Conf Briefing
Baltimore, MD
October 11, 2011

2. Agenda
• Overview E-Truck Task Force
– Goals, Initial Timeline, Status
• E-TTF Draft Findings, Recommendations
– Including Business Case Planner;
Infrastructure Planning Guide
• Fleet Experience Panel
• Battery Lease Panel
• Next Steps Discussion
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3. CALSTART
CALSTART is a unique national, non-
profit, advanced transportation technologies
organization.
Founded in 1992 as a public-private partnership
to launch and grow a clean transportation
industry that will:
• Create high-quality jobs;
• Clean the air;
• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and
• Reduce global warming emissions
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4. Commercial Vehicle Activities
CALSTART works with all vehicle types, including 2-3-wheel, light-duty
cars/pickups, off-road – but these are our commercial-focused projects
• National program and conf to speed hybrid
and advanced truck commercialization funded
by and in partnership with US Army
• $43M incentive program – purchase vouchers
– for hybrid and electric trucks funded by
CARB, CEC
• Hybrid, Efficient and Advanced Truck Center
to focus and drive effective R&D funded by
California Energy Commission
• National program to validate, speed fuel cell &
low carbon bus technology with DOT/FTA
• National conference on clean fuels and tech
for trucks, partnership with NTEA
• Purchase cooperative for natural gas cars and
MD/HD trucks
Fleet Action for Clean • Fleet action group to speed clean vehicle
Transportation (FACT) deployments
Hybrid, Electric & Advanced Truck
HTAG Action Group
• HTAG- Industry-fleet policy advocacy group for
hybrid, electric and advanced trucks
E-TTF (E-Truck Task Force)
Copyright CALSTART 2011 • Task Force targeting barriers to e-trucks 4

5. Electric Trucks
Navistar/Modec Smith
Capacity
Copyright CALSTART 2011 Freightliner Custom Chassis 5

6. E-Trucks
EVI US Hybrid
Zero Truck Vision Industries
Balqon
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7. E-Trucks in HTUF
• Key emerging segment – but many
questions about best use, business case
• Have created E-Truck Task Force for
Users, Manufacturers
– Identify barriers, business case, core needs
to grow
• Report findings, recommendations, joint
actions at HTUF 2011
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8. Goal of Task Force
• The overall goal of this effort is to speed and
support effective E-Truck production and use. In
the short term, it will specifically:
– Identify key issues/barriers that need targeting;
– Develop an action plan for addressing those issues; and
then
– Work to implement those recommendations with industry
and public partners.
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9. E-TTF Goals/Targets
• The Task Force targeted the following issues to both
understand and quantify the challenges, speed E-Truck
uptake via action steps to target and solve barriers.
– Identify key market and tech barriers
– Identify fleet user needs
– Identify and quantify industry development and production needs
– Quantify benefits and better validate business case
– Identify fueling/charging issues and needs
– Highlight best duty cycles, ways to deploy vehicles and cases for
success
– Collect and report current validated data on performance
– Collect and outline expected price points for future volumes
– Recommend action steps to address key barriers identified
– Report out these findings; including at a special session at HTUF conf
in Fall
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10. Initial Survey Results
• Roughly 200 responses
• Nearly 30% fleet users in survey
responders
– 14% vehicle manufacturers
– 26% suppliers
• Interest: More than 125 willing to take
part in Task Force
– 72 registered for first meeting
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11. Initial Survey Results
• Major Areas We Reviewed:
– Perception
– Performance/Operation
– Business Case
– Manufacturing Issues
– Overall Barriers
– Incentives
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12. Task Force Members
Tim Smith, City of Burbank Tedd Abramson, Zero Truck
Jeff Kessen, A123 Systems George Karbowski, Foothill Transit
John Mikulin , EPA Summer Pennino, EVI
Nam Thai-Tang, ALTe Tom Yamaguchi, International Rectifier
Cedric Daniels, Southern Company Trina Martynowicz, EPA
Joe Steinberger, BAAQMD Mark Kachmarski, Zero Truck
Matt Stewart, City of Chicago Emelio Garcia, CSS
Susan McSherry, NY City DOT James Larson, PG&E
Dean Magistrale, Coca-Cola Jasna Tomic, CALSTART
Joy Sharma, Amphenol Michael Miles, Kers Tech
John Scharffbillig, City of Minneapolis Anthony Bizjak, Fairfax County
Glenn Keller, Argonne Natl Lab Ron Demick, R.L. Polk
Karen Zolna, Prestolite Rudy Tapia, Vision Motor Corp
Niklas Thulin, Volvo William Nash, Azure Dynamics
Andrew Meyer, Remy Mira Inbar, Dow Kokam
Stuart Irwin, EDN Group Duane Woods, Safeway
Brian Pepper, PG&E Sam Waltzer, EPA
Kevin Silbert, MAPC David Park, MJ Bradley
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13. Task Force Members
Michael Mayor, Mayor Logistics
Maria Redmond, State of Wisconsin
Jamie Hall, CALSTART
Terry Zdan. Province of Manitoba
Mark Greer, Altec
Mark O'Connell, State of Wisconsin
Doug Ryder, MTC Kenworth
Joshua Goldman, Proterra
Jordan Smith, SCE
Jesse Shroyer, Smith Electric
Paul B. Scott, TransPower
Jim Potter, ZF
Jim Reynolds, A-Z Bus Sales
James Trask, Azure Dynamics
Dave Navey, Centralina Clean Fuels
Earl Bloom, Dow Kokam
Sandor Lau, CSS
JJ Livingstone, A123 Systems
Neilesh Mutyala, Seeo
Jeffrey Patterson, Belco
Todd Morganson, ITC Truck
Andrew Thomas, FZ Sonick
Steve Trindad, Automotive Tech Group
Rich Serio, Zero Truck
David Mazaika, Quantum Technology
Tom Welsh, Long Island Power
Kelvin Kohatsu, Hawaii Electric Light Co
Matt Guilfoyle. Daimler
Jim Castelaz, Motiv
Dennis Kulzer, City of Ventura
Andy Sleeman, Amphenol
Dale Morin, UPS
Rick Teebay, LA County
John Dabels, EV Power Systems
Martin Schuermann, Vision Motor Corp
Jeff Gettys, Zapworld
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Anny Pachner, GNA 13

14. E-TTF Timeline
• Initial issues Survey: April-May
• First meeting – review, priorities: June 9
– Provide initial incentive feedback to ARB, CEC, Air Districts
• Parallel Track Meetings – through summer
– Fleet: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks or so
– Industry: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks
• Draft Findings – First Recommendations:
August/September
• Work Shop on Recommended Actions – October 11 –
Baltimore, MD HTUF Conf
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15. Draft Key Findings to Date
 Vehicle Cost/Price are Top Issues/Barriers
- Production/battery costs; need for incentives
- 50% (or greater) funding of incremental cost needed
- Costs do show decline over time
 Vehicle Quality/Support Needs to Improve
 Validation of Performance and Business Case are
Key Gaps
 Infrastructure is a Surprise to Fleets and Important
Next Tier Issue
 Better Guidance on Vehicle Placement, Use
Needed
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16. Costs
• Vehicle cost is key component of
business case and purchase decision
– Other key components of business case are
vehicle utilization, battery replacement,
infrastructure cost
– Vehicle cost is projected to decrease over
next 5 – 10 years; cost decrease alone may
not be fully sufficient to make business case
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17. What Would Cause Increased
Purchases? Overall
Unimportant
Important
Important
Important
Critical
Slightly
Very
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18. Barriers Response Analysis
1. Incremental Cost – 43% Key Purchase
2. Operational Issues – 20% Barriers
• Range limitations
• Horse power
• Loss of payload
3. Difficulty in assessing baseline, payback and total lifecycle cost – 14%
• Battery life and replacement cost
• Unproven technology concerns
4. Charging Infrastructure – 13%
• Lack of infrastructure
• Cost
• Speed of charging
5. Lack of product availability and education on products – 10%
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19. For Purchase: Why or Why Not?
Why?
• if grant funding or price concessions are available
• to improve environmental image
• due to WA state law requiring govt entities to switch to EV‟s
Why not?
• Need to verify range, lifecycle costs, and ROI
• Observing early adopters first
• Concerned about reliability
• Prefer hybrids
• Cost is too prohibitive
• Not sure what is available
• Waiting until economy improves
• Not until fuel costs increase
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20. Price Expectations
11-20% lower
21-30% lower
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21. Desired Level of Incentives
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22. Ways to Address
• Improved engineering and production design
• Expanded volumes and supply chain
– Volume purchase cooperatives
• Battery leasing (remove battery cost from
purchase price, add to operational cost) – fleets
would like to see this option
– Also reduces risk of purchase to user (low cost
extended warranty period would also reduce risk)
• Reduced battery sizes (customized to use)
– But in short term may not help business case enough
• Incentives for early market
– Need to cover 50%+ of vehicle incremental cost
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23. Draft Recommendations
• Call on vehicle and battery industry to
institute battery leasing model for E-trucks
• Maintain or increase R&D and demonstration
of hybrid and electric technology for trucks
with focus on reduced system costs
• Seek support incentives – ideally purchase
vouchers – for roughly half of E-Truck
incremental costs
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24. Quality and Support
• Early vehicles have very low reliability/
availability
– While fleets understand this for now – but it MUST
improve quickly
• Initial quality control low
• Service and parts support often delayed
– Parts not in local supply; service network not built out
• High failure rates coupled with slow parts and
support means fleets stuck with out of service
vehicles for longer than anticipated times
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25. 25
Critical
Very
Important
What Needs Attention
Important
Overall
Slightly
Important
Unimportant
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26. What Needs Attention
Detail
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27. Draft Recommendations
• Call on vehicle and battery industry to link
sales expansion to adequate support and
parts network
• Call on vehicle manufacturers to increase
quality control checks before delivery
• Encourage fleets to require service turn-
around minimums before purchase
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28. Performance and Business Case
• Fleets need better validation data of the
performance of E-trucks in real-world use
– Want data on reliability #1; range #2; battery life/
replacement #3; maintenance #4; energy use;
infrastructure costs
• Fleets expect 10 year battery life – battery makers
say 6-8 highly likely depending on use profile,
thermal management, recharge rates (level 2)
• Fleets want longer range in most cases; but a
good percentage would like to see a small
battery/shorter range option IF it meaningfully cuts
vehicle costs
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29. Performance and Business Case
• Business case main variables are purchase price,
fuel displacement
– Battery replacement also a key worry to business case
• High utilization (or high fuel offset), known route,
return to base fleets ideal
• Infrastructure a higher cost than anticipated for
multi-vehicle fleets
• Fleets need better guidance and data on key
aspects of real-world business case
– Value proposition based on maximum fuel
displacement, reducing purchase and install costs
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30. What Drives the Business Case
Overall
Unimportant
Important
Important
Important
Critical
Slightly
Very
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31. Best Use for Business Case
Fleet & OEM Conversations
To get sufficient payback, need to drive maximum
miles possible (or maximum use of energy)
• Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known daily mileage highly
valuable
High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) seems
important
70-100 miles/day seems like an initial “sweet spot” for
fuel savings payback (sufficient miles to generate
fuel savings needed)
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32. Performance Validation Data
(4) What Data on Real-World E-Truck Use do you Most Want to
See?:
(1 is most important, 10 is least – mean results below)
– Vehicle range/charge: 3
– Vehicle energy use/mile: 4.2
– Reliability/Uptime: 1.8
– Maintenance costs: 4
– Real infrastructure installation costs: 5.8
– Battery failure/replacement/life: 3.6
– Other failure modes: 6.3
– Successful applications/fleet success stories: 7.5
– Other: operation in snow and ice with road chemicals
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33. Battery / Component
Common Approaches
Battery Life:
• Based on the following standard use profiles for e-trucks, how
long do you anticipate battery life to extend? (Assume once a day
charging at Level 2).
– 70 mile/day fixed route suburban delivery:
• Energy Storage Providers: 3-5 years (33%), 5-8 years (33%), 10 years (33%)
• Industry: 5-8 years (25%), 8 years (50%),10 years (25%),
– 80% daily battery discharge work site vehicle (e.g., utility truck):
• Energy Storage Providers: 4-6 years (33%), 5-7 years (33%), 10 years (33%)
• Industry: 5 years (22%), 7 years (11%), 8-10 years (55%), 12 years (11%)
– 20 mile/day urban driving:
• Energy Storage Providers: 7-10 years (33%), 8-10 years (33%), 10 years (33%)
• Industry: 4-6 years (37%), 10 years (50%), 15 years (12%)
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34. Battery / Component
Common Approaches
Battery Cost:
• How much do you anticipate it will it cost to replace batteries
in the following years (installed pack per kwh):
– 2015:
• Energy Storage Providers: $500/kWh (50%), $600/kWh (50%)
• Industry: $270-300/kWh (33%), $450 kWh (16%), $1,500/kWh (50%)
– 2020:
• Energy Storage Providers: $450/kWh
• Industry: $200 - $230/kWh (33%), $350/kWh (16%), $1,000/kWh (50%)
– 2025:
• Energy Storage Providers: $300/kWh
• Industry: $100-175/kWh (33%), $300/kWh (16%), $500/kWh (16%),
$750/kWh (33%)
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35. Draft Recommendations
• Create and circulate draft GENERAL business
case guide
• Recommend adopting common “use profiles”
as basis of business case assumptions,
battery life guarantees
• Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure
planning guide
• Create a clearinghouse for fleet in-use data
sharing on E-trucks
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36. Copyright CALSTART 2011 36

37. Infrastructure
• Level 2 charging most common for fleets
• Most fleets plan to charge once per day, over
night (some considering fast charge)
• Most single truck deployments will get power at
service shop; however, plans are to take power
to where vehicles normally park
• Fleets say are not getting good guidance from
vehicle vendors on what infrastructure needs
and costs are
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38. Infrastructure
• Average EVSE simple, single install $3300
(usually at a building); fleets say often higher
• Installing conduit to take power to truck locations
can cost $8-10,000 or more
• Demand charge is key issue – time of charge
can push facility over its core demand load and
cost much more money
• No existing EV charge rate for commercial sites
(though Time of Use – TOU – rates exist)
• Fleets may need new costly electrical service
expansion to accommodate demand from 3-5
more vehicles
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39. Draft Recommendations
• Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure
planning guide
• Work to create a commercial EV charge rate
• Eliminate or reduce demand charge for
commercial EV charging (if timed to protect
the grid)
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40. E-TTF Infrastructure Decision
Guidelines for Fleets
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41. Copyright CALSTART 2011 42

42. Vehicle Placement, Use
• Value proposition is based on maximum fuel
offset
• Must deploy vehicles in use profiles that
support this proposition
• Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known daily
mileage highly valuable
• High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) is
important
• 70-100 miles/day (or equivalent energy use) seems
like an initial “sweet spot” for fuel savings payback
(sufficient miles to generate fuel savings that offset
purchase price)
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43. Best Use / Duty Cycles
General
1. Fixed route applications - 70%
• Stop and go
• Localized, dedicated routes
• Short haul
• Limited range
• „Spoke and hub‟
• Urban Delivery, Refuse, Mail trucks, Transit Buses
2. Facility vehicles – 19%
• Airports, seaports, railyards, military bases, parks, resorts
• Warehouse support and maintenance
• Cargo handling
3. High idle, work site applications – 11%
• Aerial devices
• PTO
• Utility vehicles
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44. What Drives the Business Case
Overall
Unimportant
Important
Important
Important
Slightly
Critical
Very
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45. What Drives the Business Case
by Respondent
Critical
Very
Important
Important
Slightly
Important
Unimportant
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46. Draft Recommendations
• Create and circulate GENERAL business case
planning guide
• Create joint info/data documents and tools
highlighting best use profiles and agree to
use across E-truck industry
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47. Overall Recommendations
• COST
– Call on vehicle and battery industry to institute battery leasing
model for E-trucks
– Maintain/increase R&D and demonstration of hybrid and
electric technology for trucks with focus on reduced system
costs
– Seek support incentives – ideally purchase vouchers – for
roughly half of E-Truck incremental costs
• QUALITY/SERVICE
– Call on vehicle and battery industry to link sales expansion to
adequate support and parts network
– Call on vehicle manufacturers to increase quality control
checks before delivery
– Encourage fleets to require service turn-around minimums
before purchase
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48. Overall Recommendations
• BUSINESS CASE/PERFORMANCE
– Create and circulate draft GENERAL business case guide
– Recommend adopting common “use profiles” as basis of business case
assumptions, battery life guarantees
– Create a clearinghouse for fleet in-use data sharing on E-trucks
• INFRASTRUCTURE
– Create and circulate GENERAL infrastructure planning guide
– Work to create a commercial EV charge rate
– Eliminate or reduce demand charge for commercial EV charging (if timed to
protect the grid)
• VEHICLE PLACEMENT/USE
– Create joint info/data documents and tools highlighting best use profiles and
agree to use across E-truck industry
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49. • Questions?
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50. Fleet Experience
• Mike Britt, UPS
– Dir., Maintenance and Engineering, Ground Fleet
• Claude Masters, Florida Power and Light
– Manager, Fleet Acquisition and Fuel, Florida Power
and Light
• Judge McKenney, FedEx Express
– Vehicle Engineer
• Christopher Trajkovski, Frito-Lay
– National Fleet Sustainability Manager
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51. Battery Lease
• Jim Castelaz, Motiv Power Systems
– CEO
• Gitajali DasGupta, Electrovaya
– Director, Electric Vehicle Division
• Steve Wollenberg, Automatiks
– Co-founder and VP of Business Development
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52. • www.calstart.org/Projects/E-Truck-
Project.aspx
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53. E-TTF Next?
• Initial issues Survey: April-May
• First meeting – review, priorities: June 9
– Provide initial incentive feedback to ARB, CEC, Air Districts
• Parallel Track Meetings – through summer
– Fleet: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks or so
– Industry: 2-4 meetings, every 3 weeks
• Draft Findings – First Recommendations:
August/September
• CIRCULATING DOCUMENTS FOR COMMENT BY 9-30-
11
• Work Shop on Recommended Actions – October 11 –
Baltimore, MD HTUF Conf
• POLICY ACTION – INDUSTRY ACTION
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54. Hybrid, Electric and Advanced
Truck Action Group (HTAG)
•Industry-supported, CALSTART-
managed advocacy group
working to recommend and secure
hybrid, electric and advanced
truck policies and incentives to
speed commercialization
•Briefings for Congress, support
for tax credits, truck R&D,
vouchers
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55. Next Steps
• Work to push key policy, funding
recommendations via HTAG
• Link with utilities and utility industry
groups (EEI, others) on Commercial EV
charge rate
• On-going E-Truck strategy working
group?
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56. Clean Transportation
Technologies and Solutions SM
www.calstart.org
For info contact:
Bill Van Amburg
(626) 744-5600
bvanamburg@calstart.org

57. • Backup Slides
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58. Performance Validation Data
Ranking of preferred performance parameters
(1 is most important, 10 is least – mean results below)
– Lifecycle costs less than or equal to diesel: 2.6
– Long range (80-120 miles/charge): 2.8
– Small battery/short range option (20-50 miles): 9
– Freeway capable speed (65 mph) : 4.6
– No operational change to driver: 4.8
– No decreased payload capacity: 4.6
– Reliability equal to or better than diesel: 1.4
– Significant fuel cost savings: 5.2
– Maintenance costs 50% better diesel: 4.6
– Other (please specify): On-board data recorders, weight of
vehicle, attachment of devices
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59. Benefits of E-Trucks
Overall
Critical
Very
Important
Important
Slightly
Important
Unimportant
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60. Benefits of E-Trucks
by Respondent
Critical
Very
Important
Important
Slightly
Important
Unimportant
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