China clean truck gts update 3 7-2012 van amburg

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Bill Van Amburg, Senior VP, CALSTART, gave this program overview at the CALSTART-NTEA Green Truck Summit in Indianapolis, Indiana on March 7, 2012. …

Bill Van Amburg, Senior VP, CALSTART, gave this program overview at the CALSTART-NTEA Green Truck Summit in Indianapolis, Indiana on March 7, 2012.
China Clean Truck aims to facilitate advanced truck technology cooperation and exports by providing market and policy information, targeted assistance, and partnership development.

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  • Last year, China halved the sales tax on vehicles with an engine capacity of 1.6-liter or less to 5 percent. The authorities also provided 5 billion yuan ($732 million) in cash to help consumers replace old vehicles. Sales of small vehicles reached 7.2 million units in 2009, up by 71 percent from 2008, while auto sales in rural areas also surged by 85 percent to 2 million units, ministry statistics showed. To maintain stable growth in the auto market, the government last month also extended stimulus measures for another year, raising the tax on smaller cars to 7.5 percent from a favorable 5 percent last year .
  • T he best selling HDV trucks: Class 8 tractor - Freightliner Columbia (430-550 hp) Class 6 straight truck - International 4400 (225-310 hp) Class 8 straight truck - Mack Granite dump truck (405 hp) Class 4 - Ford E series (225-305 hp)

Transcript

  • 1. US-China Clean Truck & Bus Forum Update: First China SUMMIT; Business Guide Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Jamie Hall Policy Director Susan Romeo Marketing & Comm Dirwww.chinacleantruck.org March 7, 2012
  • 2. Agenda • US-China Clean Truck & Bus Forum – What is it? • Status of Current Activities • The China Opportunity – Market; Policy; Challenges • US-China Clean Truck & Bus SUMMIT • How it Benefits Your Company • Discussion of Industry Needs • Taking PartCopyright CALSTART 2012 2
  • 3. China Clean Truck US-China Clean Truck & Bus Technology Forum • CALSTART has launched the US-China Clean Truck and Bus Technology Forum (China Clean Truck) in partnership with the Dept of Commerce • Goals: Link US industry with the prime potential partners for advanced trucks and buses in the Chinese market, by: • Identifying opportunities, needs and challenges of the Chinese commercial vehicle market; • Raising the profile of US companies and solutions for China and assisting their market knowledge; • Developing partnership opportunities for US and Chinese companies; and • Connecting Chinese and US policy makers to encourage market development.Copyright CALSTART 2012 3
  • 4. Market Development Cooperator Program (MDCP) Background • China Clean Truck is supported by the Dept of Commerce and the International Trade Administration under the MDCP program • MDCP helps non-profit, trade associations and economic development groups to grow US exports from targeted industries to key regions of the world • MDCP has yearly cooperative awards for groups– this year key goals were in clean tech and China; saw support gap in trucks and busesCopyright CALSTART 2012 4
  • 5. US-China Clean Truck & Bus Overall Activities • CONFERENCE: Organize 2012 & 2013 US-China Clean Truck & Bus SUMMIT with Chinese and US partners in Beijing and Shanghai – Link 200 top US and Chinese government and business leaders advanced truck and bus technologies • GUIDE: Produce first-ever China Clean Truck Markets and Business Guide for US companies • RESEARCH: Provide custom Chinese truck & bus market information and contacts with ITA partners • CONNECT: Assist Chinese delegations to visit leading US truck and bus technology companies and conferences • POLICY: Inform Chinese policy-makers on environmental, economic benefits of Chinese commercial vehicle policiesCopyright CALSTART 2012 5
  • 6. US-China Clean Truck & Bus Forum Current Status Snapshot • First China-US Clean Truck and Bus SUMMIT currently scheduled week June 4 2012 - Beijing – Conducting outreach on sponsorship opportunities – Recruiting companies to attend • Industry needs survey distributed in January, 2012 to inform project priorities • Now conducting research for first ever China Clean Truck and Bus Business Opportunity Guide – published just before SUMMITCopyright CALSTART 2012 6
  • 7. First US-China Clean Truck & Bus SUMMIT • First major activity of Forum: US-China Clean Truck and Bus SUMMIT • Where: Beijing – two day event • When: Early June, currently week of June 4 • Now inviting sponsors and attendees – from US tech leader companies and key Chinese commercial vehicle manufacturers and government • Agenda drafted • China Partners, co-organizers include: iCET and Commercial Vehicle and Construction Equipment New Energy Powertrain System Technology Innovation Alliance (CVCENPTA); CAERI (China Automotive Engineering Research Institute)Copyright CALSTART 2012 7
  • 8. US-China Clean Truck and Bus SUMMIT Goals Link US industry with the prime potential partners for advanced trucks and buses in the Chinese market, by: • Identifying opportunities, needs and challenges of the Chinese commercial vehicle market; • Raising the profile of US companies and solutions for China and assisting their market knowledge; • Develop partnership opportunities for US and Chinese companies; and • Connecting Chinese and US policy makers to encourage market development.Copyright CALSTART 2012 8
  • 9. Beijing Summit 2012 Agenda at a Glance • China’s Interest in New Energy Vehicles – an Update on the Need, Emerging Requirements, and the Opportunity • China’s Truck and Bus Market – an Overview of Market Size and Shape, Trends, and Distinguishing Characteristics • China’s Technology Solutions and Interests – Spotlight on Chinese Industry OEMs and Suppliers, Technologies, and Needs/Interests in this Sector • U.S. Technology Solutions and Interests – Spotlight on U.S. Industry OEMs and Suppliers, Technologies, and Needs/Interests in this Sector • Doing Business in China – Discussion of Partnership Structure, Local Content Requirements, and other Key Issues • Early Experiences with Advanced Trucks and Buses in China – Spotlight on Pilot Programs and Success in China, as well as Lessons Learned from AbroadCopyright CALSTART 2012 9
  • 10. China Market Basics • In 2010, China sold more than 1.4M commercial medium and heavy-duty trucks and buses (far more than doubling US totals) • Sales of commercial vehicles overall increases 99% from 2009 to 2010 • Heavy-duty trucks made up 900,000 sales • Top five producers are local companies: First Auto Works (FAW); SinoTruk, Dongfeng, Foton and Sha’anxi Truck • Roughly half the world’s buses are sold in ChinaCopyright CALSTART 2012 10
  • 11. China Market Overview • Roughly 50% of China’s transportation fuel goes to commercial trucks and buses – as opposed to less than a third in the US • China plans to subsidize new energy vehicles $12B Yuan ($1.76B) by 2012 – cars, trucks and buses – according to National Development Reform Commission – Paid for with increase in fuel consumption tax (1 Yuan/liter gas; 0.8 Yuan/liter diesel) • Goal – 500,000 vehicles by 2011; 4 million vehicles by 2015 – New excise taxes are planned based on engine displacement and new registration fees could reach 10%Copyright CALSTART 2012 11
  • 12. China Annual Vehicle Sales Reached 18 Million Units in 2010 China’s vehicle sales grew 40% in 2010 to reach 18 million units, and oil imports reached 55.3%. may reach 30 million bbl by 2015 (with 10-11% annual growth rate in next 5Copyright CALSTART 2012 years) 12
  • 13. IEA: Major Transportation Energy Demand Growth in China by 2030 China Vehicle Population Forecast(IEA) China Vehicle Fuel Consumption Forecast (IEA) China Vehicle GHG Emission Forecast(IEA) China will maintain high growth rate in vehicle population, fuel consumption and GHG emissions in next 20 years, up to 5 times more than today, with vehicle stock reaching 400 million units Source: IEA, Transportation Energy and CO2, 2009, iCET, 2010.Copyright CALSTART 2012 13
  • 14. Market Leaders • Top 10 Vehicle Makers account for 70% of China’s total commercial vehicle sales • Top 10 produced 1.69 M commercial vehicles (Jan-Sept 2009) – Important note: sales and production figures often mix different classes • Most inland freight moved by road, so truck demand has a driver to increase • Government considering a scrappage incentive for older trucks and equipment in rural areas From Business Monitor InternationalCopyright CALSTART 2012 14
  • 15. Market Leaders • Beiqui Foton - M/HD trucks, buses • Dongfeng Motors - M/HD trucks, buses • First Auto Works (FAW) – L/M/HD trucks, buses • Anhui Jianghui Auto – L/HD trucks • Chongquing ChangAn Group – L/HD trucks • Jinbei Auto – LD trucks, small buses • China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (CNHTG) – • Jianling Motors – LD trucks • Shandong KAMA Automobile – L/MD trucks • SAIC-GM-Wuling Automobile – LD trucksCopyright CALSTART 2012 15
  • 16. China Commercial Vehicles Forecast 2008 2009 2010e 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f Light commercial Vehicles 1.217 1.574 1.810 1.882 2.098 2.306 2.536 2.766 Heavy trucks 1.225 1.704 2.011 2.092 2.235 2.373 2.523 2.674 Buses & coaches 0.120 0.129 0.153 0.166 0.188 0.209 0.230 0.253 Total Commercial Vehicle Sales 2.625 3.314 4.300 4.558 5.116 5.628 6.163 6.726 From Business Monitor InternationalCopyright CALSTART 2012 16
  • 17. General Market Observations  Medium- and heavy-duty vehicles are predominantly domestically produced (99.9%)  And the majority are powered by diesel (97%) - City bus is an exception: 12% powered by CNG, 5% by gasoline.  Chinese HDVs generally have much lower power than those in the EU and US - 44% of HDVs have engine power less than 100kW (142 hp) - 74% have engine power less than 200kW (268 hp) - Over 99% of vehicles > 3.5 tons GVW have engine power < 300 kW (402 hp) - Engine power of most popular US HDV model - Class 4: 225-305 hp; - Class 8 tractor: 430-550 hp Courtesy: ICCTCopyright CALSTART 2012 17
  • 18. Prelim View: Unique Use of Vehicles in China • “Special vehicles” have the highest share (30%), followed by dump trucks (21%), HDV registra on by vehicle type V n y e e platform trucks (20%), tractors (15%) and 新上牌重型车车类 类 bus and coach (13%). • Half of the “Special vehicles” are labeled Tractor r Goodss van, and ¼ are labeled stake truck, and 牵引车 车 vehicle- 15%% Pla orm m both look like cargo vehicles. 平板卡车 车 20% % • Other “Special vehicles” covers a wide Speciall variety of vehicles (e.g., concrete mixer, Vehicle 专用 e Goodss 车 vehicle- crane truck, oil / fuel transport tanker), 30%% Dumper r 自卸车 车 each with very small new registration 21% % share (mostly <1%) Special vehicle – Van l e n Special vehicle – stake truck l e e k Passenger r City Bus y s Van 小客车 n 车 Interurban n Touring g 城市客车 车 2% % Coach h Coach h 8% % 城郊客车 车 旅游车 车 1% % 3% % Courtesy: ICCTCopyright CALSTART 2012 18
  • 19. Future Reg Programs in China & Europe Influenced by Regional Conditions CHINA •Speed - Chinese freight trucks typically travel at lower speeds (43 mph compared to 65 mph in US) •Weight - And operate at significantly higher gross weight (108K lbs+ compared to 80K lbs in US). EUROPE •Fuel price - ~$8 / gal. drives technology & efficient operation •Speed limit - ~56 mpg speed limit Euro-wide •Aero - Cab over engine looks like a bus – highly aerodynamic? •Tires - Supersingles / LRR widely used •Idle - European trucks rarely idle even at truck stops. From ICCTCopyright CALSTART 2012 19
  • 20. China Resources • CS China home: http://export.gov/china/ Includes links to IPR protection, China Business Handbook, & other useful links on the left navigation bar. • China FAQs: http://export.gov/china/faqs/index.asp • Are you ready for China: http://export.gov/areuchinaready/ • Trade Policy Dialogue: http://export.gov/china/doingbizinchina/tradepolicydiaCopyright CALSTART 2012 20
  • 21. • CS China home: http://export.gov/china/ • We will also be developing a new guide specifically for the M/HD industry to do business in China via China Clean TruckCopyright CALSTART 2012 21
  • 22. Other Activities • CALSTART under China Clean Truck will be developing a series of webinars and briefings on business and market issues in China • For companies working with us we will develop a web listing of your companies to help with profile and partner identification in ChinaCopyright CALSTART 2012 22
  • 23. Other Plans • Monitoring and reporting on policy related developments in China that create or obstruct new market opportunities. • Marketing and staging several (up to 3 per year) CALSTART Webinars to provide information to US companies about IP issues, doing business in China, government regulations, market opportunities and conditions, and other salient issues. • Alert US transportation technology companies to opportunity, bid and contract opportunities released by Chinese government and business via e-newsletter.Copyright CALSTART 2012 23
  • 24. Other Services – Custom partnering, market and strategy support will take place via custom research and connections provided by CALSTART partners or in some cases by our ITA/Commercial Service partners on a fee basis for qualifying member companies. – This will take place on both an on-going (between conferences) and targeted (linked with the conference) basis. – Augmented via special staged at CALSTART industry events and webinarsCopyright CALSTART 2012 24
  • 25. Industry Specific Interests • Based on discussions at the China Opportunities Session at HTUF, US companies expressed interest in learning more about the following issues/concerns: – Need for “local” content and status of those rules (possible webinar) – Access to/information about China component supplier base – Information on product support and service structures – Opportunities for/challenges of retrofit in China – Utility grid/emissions information by regionCopyright CALSTART 2012 25
  • 26. THE CHINESE TRUCK AND BUS MARKET: What Do Companies Most Need to KnowMore ImportantCopyright CALSTART 2012 26
  • 27. Concerns About Doing Business in China: IP and Gov’t Restrictions Top the ListCopyright CALSTART 2012 27
  • 28. DOING BUSINESS IN CHINA: What Do Companies Most Need to KnowMore ImportantCopyright CALSTART 2012 28
  • 29. Discussion • What information, contacts and help would benefit your company the most? • How can you be involved with and support China Clean Truck?Copyright CALSTART 2012 29
  • 30. Beijing Summit 2012 Preliminary Agenda for Day 1 • Co-welcome from China and US Policymakers • China’s Interest in “New Energy” & Advanced Vehicles – The need for clean vehicles in China – Emerging requirements and commitments – Global opportunity: lessons and update from US and abroad • China’s Truck and Bus Market: Shape & Key Distinctions – Market size and shape – Spotlight on key trends and differences between US and China • Networking Lunch • China Technology Solutions and Interests – Spotlight on Chinese Industry Leaders • US Technology Solutions and Interests – Spotlight on US Industry Leaders • Targeted Networking and Partnership Building SessionCopyright CALSTART 2012 30
  • 31. Beijing Summit 2012 Preliminary Agenda for Day 2 • Role of Policy in China’s Truck and Bus Market – National emissions and efficiency standards – Planned and existing incentive programs • Doing Business in China – Local content requirements – what are the latest rules and how can you navigate them? – Partnership structures working in China – Success stories • Early Experiences with Advanced Trucks and Buses – What is working in China – local targets, commitments, pilot programs – What is working outside China –targets, commitments, programs – Discussion • SUMMIT Summary Remarks • Lunch and Targeted Networking and Partnership Building • Optional Tours to Technology Demo Sites (tentative, TBD)Copyright CALSTART 2012 31
  • 32. US-China Clean Truck and Bus SUMMIT Sponsorships Available • Raise profile as a clean technology leader for China market Sponsorship Levels: • Clean Energy Vehicle Leader - • Clean Energy Vehicle Partner - • Clean Energy Vehicle Associate - Benefits: (vary but can include) • Visibility to an international audience • Speaking, exhibit networking opportunities • Complimentary Summit registrations • Forum advisory committee participation Contact: Bill Van Amburg, bvanamburg@calstart.org, Jamie Hall jhall@calstart.org or Susan Romeo, sromeo@calstart.orgCopyright CALSTART 2012 32
  • 33. Timeline • China Opportunities Session – HTUF 2011  • Determine with DoC policy issues for discussion with industry and China  • Outline China Clean Truck Conf logistics, plans  • Survey and Sign up companies; stage “roundtables” on issues early 2012, GTS • First Forum in China: June 2012 – Seeking attendees, sponsorsCopyright CALSTART 2012 33
  • 34. Clean Transportation Technologies and Solutions SM www.calstart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 bvanamburg@calstart.org Jamie Hall (510) 307-8774 jhall@calstart.orgwww.chinacleantruck.org