CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final

Emerging Vehicle and Fuel Technologies For Clean, Efficient Transportation Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President Mobility 2030 – San Francisco, CA August 18, 2009

Mission Statement
CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, member-supported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will:
Create high-quality jobs;
Clean the air;
Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and
Prevent global warming

CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation National and International in Project Areas 2009 130+ Worldwide Member Network 4 Offices in US Four focus areas: Tech Commercialization Fleet, Port Consulting Industry Services Policy Development

CALSTART Has 130+ Member/ Participants ( partial list )

Find Combination Strategies Air Quality Climate Change Energy Security We must find solutions that address all three competing needs Integrated Solutions Needed There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution

Agenda
Trends & Drivers of Change in Transportation
The Fuel, Emissions and Climate Challenge – and Opportunity
Some Observations Based on Where Change is Heading
Summary

2030: We Can’t Get There in Vehicles
2030 requires more than JUST more- efficient cars & trucks and lower carbon fuels
2030 requires cleaner, more efficient transportation design and systems – mobility for people, efficient transport for goods
2030 is the half way point of 40 years of significant tech, fuel and transportation design change needed to save the planet
California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership (CalSTEP) Action Plan

Sources of GHG
Transportation is biggest GHG source in CA, but it is also one third of all US emissions

Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond 80% Reduction ~ 341 MMT CO2e 15% above 1990 levels today 1990 Emission Baseline ~173 MMT CO 2 e Reduction 80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO 2 e

International Energy Agency: 6 New Saudis Needed by 2030

EPA’s Light Duty GHG Standard Average of 250 g CO2/mile by 2016
Standards have same endpoint as CA Pavley standards.
5% annual rate of improvement
Still higher than limits in many other developed countries.

Reductions Beyond Pavley Needed in Ground Transportation
Pavley bill (AB 1493 in 2002) helps reduce rate of growth

Possible Drivers of Truck Fuel Efficiency: Carbon Cutting carbon means reducing fuel burn and using lower carbon fuels. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve if it had to tackle carbon reduction alone. Today 2020 2030 2040 2050 Discussion estimates only Need fuels and efficiency combined

Observation: Need Combination Strategies
High efficiency vehicles combined with low carbon fuels – eventually this combination becomes the norm
Hybrid/biofuel vehicles
Plug-in hybrid/biofuel
Diesel/high efficiency engine/hybrid/biofuel
Extended range EV/biofuel

The Nation’s Most Advanced Biofuel Hybrid Vehicle
Florida Power & Light (FP&L) fuels this hybrid electric truck on B30 (30% biodiesel) resulting in approximately 70% less oil used compared to conventional truck
Biofuels + Hybrids = Real Synergy (hybrid technology will maximize use of biofuels which will be limited by amount of acreage)

Significant Growth in Hybrid Trucks
Every major truck and bus manufacturer in North America is now selling one or more hybrid products
Hydraulic hybrid and hybrid electric technology gaining strength
36 Trucks Took Part in HTUF Conference Ride and Drive – South Bend, IN October 2008

Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo
ArvinMeritor – Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing
Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds
Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving
Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in line-haul and regional heavy haul applications
Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015

Freightliner Innovation Truck
Advanced aerodynamics
Predictive cruise control
Light weight materials
Variable chassis height
Energy storage for overnight idle reduction
Recent study shows technology available today to cut truck fuel consumption 50% (ICCT/NESCCAFF)

VW Shows Turbo/Super Charged CNG Concept Vehicle
Touran TSI EcoFuel debuts at Geneva Motor Show
Features dual charging via turbocharger and supercharger
When paired with a standard 6-speed transmission, fuel consumption is 4.8 kilograms of natural gas per 100 kilometers
CO2 is approximately 129g/km
Meets Euro-5 standards
Has four natural gas tanks and an auxiliary gasoline tank
Range of 370 kms using natural gas fuel only, and a maximum range of 520 kms
Photo: Media.Photobucket.com CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/03/09

Battery Electric Vehicles Re-Emerging as Real Option Mitsubishi IMiEV Nissan Leaf Daimler Electric Smart Chevy Volt E-REV Tesla Roadster Electric Mini Chrysler “Peapod” & Others?

Smith Building More Electric Trucks in US; Modec Teaming with Navistar
Smith Electric Vehicles launches new production facility in US in Kansas City region
Unveils US version of the Newton, which has a top speed of 50, range of over 100 miles and a payload capacity of up to 16,280 lbs
Unveils first all-electric utility bucket truck based on Newton at in partnership with Altec, PG&E
Will also build electric Ford Transit Connect vehicle in Kansas City
Modec and Navistar win grant from DOE to build electric delivery trucks in US

Toyota vs. GM vs. Ford: Working on Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Toyota Motor Company is testing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, first Japanese automaker to research and road test the technology
General Motors has taken the lead in developing rechargeable vehicles – “Volt” pre-production car unveiled Sept 08; possible for 2010
GM may have Saturn Vue PHEV by late 2009
Ford in PHEV testing partnership with Southern California Edison
Ford continues to study a PHEV concept “Extend,” seeks trademark
Ford PHEV Escape

The Fuel Landscape is Changing
Broader look at full impacts on well-to-wheels basis underway, including indirect, food competition and land use impacts
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, UC Berkeley

Graphical Depiction of Indirect Emissions Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley

Where Are Biofuels Headed?
Still very much an active debate
Today’s biofuels are stepping stones to next generation fuels and feedstocks – we believe you must start somewhere to make progress!
Biofuels in future that do not compete with food and wilderness for fertile land can avoid indirect GHG emissions (Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley Energy & Resources Group)
Wastes and residues, agriculture seasonal mix, wastelands crops – more R&D

Low Carbon Fuel Standards Are Emerging
Source: 3/5/09 CARB Draft LCFS Rule

Observation: Closer Link Between Fuel and Region/Person
More Grid Connection
Smart timing, pricing systems
Vehicles contribute to system
Waste-stream fuels
MSW, food/ag production, waste water
Local fuel production
Waste Syngas or Biogas Biomethane Alcohol fuels Electricity production Standard fuels Hydrogen

Power Grid Changing
“ Smart Grid”
Integrating Distributed Generation
Increasing generation from renewables
1

Vehicle to Grid- Integration of Transportation and Power Grid Arrows indicate direction of power flow (Kempton &Tomic, JPS, 2005) 2

Green-Gas Principle – Can Make “Natural Gas” Even Greener Biogas Natural gas Residential housing Industries Filling stations Swedish officials believe biomethane can meet 20% of future transportation needs

Swedish Biomethane Vehicles

First Trucks to Run on Biomethane In California
In 2009 Hilarides Dairy powers trucks on renewable biomethane from dairy operation
Has potential to generate 650 diesel gallon equivalents (DGEs) from farm
CALSTART is preparing a federal stimulus and AB 118 proposal to jump-start the CA biomethane industry
CBG Truck In Tulare Tulare Covered Lagoon Producing biogas

Observation: Transportation Management Systems Needed, Will Grow
Hardware and Software for consumer-level system maintenance, control
Timing, routing, pricing of optimal choices for given need
Consumers provided with choices based on “best” choices
Cost/emissions, congestion (infrastructure availability)
Personal car one of choices but not only

Vehicles & Electric Grid
Two large sectors that can be integrated
Smart interaction between vehicle fleet, grid and intermittent renewable
Large, low-cost storage for renewables
Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) power as bridging technology
7

V2G Provides New Source of Distributed Generation
50% of cars as EDVs increase electric load ?
100 Million cars
x 15,000 Miles per year / 4.8 Miles per kWh
= 312 Billion kWh per year at off-peak times
= 7 % of 2020 total national load
With V2G, these EDVs also provide a huge power resource:
100 M cars x 15 kW x 0.5 avail. = 750 GW of DG
> 70% of 2020 national electric power capacity!
Conclusion: Even 50% of cars as EDV, IF they have V2G, probably REDUCE grid infrastructure requirements
6

Observation: Vehicle Ownership Models Likely to Change
Will we remain wedded to the vehicle itself – or to the “service” provided by the vehicle?
Cost of fuel, vehicle, insurance may change the relationship of people to vehicles
Vehicles may be offered as part of service agreement rather than simple sales
Option: own vehicle, lease energy as service (battery lease)
Option: vehicle provided as part of energy agreement (cell phone and solar panel model)
Option: vehicle 1 or 2 part of shared asset or service agreement (car sharing or custom rental)

Observation: Cities Likely to Change to Drive More Efficient Transportation
SB 375 in California and the AB 32 goals leading to first reviews of urban planning for climate impacts
Land use and urban design the 800 pound gorilla (or one of them!) by 2030
Mode shifting, telecommuting, better transit, walking/biking options

Oil Demand in North America Began Declining Before Economic Downturn Price Signal Drives Behavior – CA Saw Similar Response During Electricity Crisis in 2000-2001 Peak in Oil Prices

Price Signals: Possibly Strongest Driver of Fuel Efficiency, LC Fuels 2008 2020 2030 2040 2050 Maintaining cost/mile for fuel means increasing efficiency or using lower cost fuels or blends. This chart illustrates how Class 8 fuel efficiency might need to improve to maintain steady fuel cost/mile. Discussion estimates only

Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster
Fuel prices are increasing over time and it is unlikely we will “go back”
$2.70

Primary Actions
FUEL DIVERSITY:
Alternative Fuels Portfolio Standard
10 percent by 2012 and at least 20 percent by 2020
Codifies Governor’s stated goal; Parallel AB 32 strategy
EFFICIENT VEHICLES:
‘ Energy Security Tax Relief and Realignment’
A ‘Foreign Oil Security’ price floor coupled w/tax relief for all Californians of driving age
REDUCE NEED TO DRIVE:
‘ Smart Communities’ Program
Upgrade transportation models
New state transportation funding to local governments who reduce driving by 10% over ~25 years
CalSTEP Recommendations

Summary: 2030 Observations
No crystal ball: not completely clear which fuels and technologies will be absolute winners – but they will be driven by these trends:
Greater Link Between Region/Consumer and Fuel:
Local and Distributed Energy
Combination Strategies:
Efficiency & Fuel Key
Expansion of Transportation Systems:
Hardware and Software to Optimize Consumer Energy Use, Choices
Change in Vehicle Ownership Models:
Product vs Service
Cities Change Planning/Land Use:
Encouraging Transport Efficiency

Clean Transportation Technologies & Solutions SM www.calstart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 [email_address]

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CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final

by CALSTART on Aug 20, 2009

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CALSTART Van Amburg Mobility 2030 8 18 09 Final — Presentation Transcript