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Overview of the hybrid truck market's growth and upcoming technologies to transition to a cleaner transportation future. Presented at NTEA Hybrid Truck and Alt Fuels Summit...

Overview of the hybrid truck market's growth and upcoming technologies to transition to a cleaner transportation future. Presented at NTEA Hybrid Truck and Alt Fuels Summit
Atlanta, GA 2008 by CALSTART Senior VP Bill Van Amburg.

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  • Thanks Jessy! If you're in Dearborn MI on September 28-30, you can see many of these cutting edge techs in person. HTUF 2010: http://www.htuf.org
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CALSTART Hybrid Truck Momentum And Opportunities Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Growing Momentum & Opportunities in Medium and Heavy-Duty Hybrids Clean Transportation Solutions SM Advanced Transportation Technologies Bill Van Amburg Senior Vice President NTEA Hybrid Truck and Alt Fuels Summit Atlanta, GA February 25, 2008
  • 2. Agenda
    • WestStart-CALSTART Background
    • Trends & Drivers of Change in Transportation
    • Hybrid Momentum and the HTUF Process
    • Some Emerging Incentives
    • Summary
  • 3. Mission Statement
    • WestStart-CALSTART is a unique non-profit, member-supported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will:
        • Create high-quality jobs;
        • Clean the air;
        • Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and
        • Prevent global warming
  • 4. WestStart: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation Regional in Name National and International in Targeted Areas CALSTART is WestStart’s California Operating Division 2008 155+ Worldwide Participant Network 4 Offices in US Four focus areas: Efficient vehicles New fuels Mobility/transit Industry support
  • 5. WestStart Has 155+ Member/ Participants ( partial list )            
  • 6. WestStart-CALSTART Focus Areas (current programs) Vehicles and Technologies Innovative Mobility Bus Rapid Transit First Mile MyGo-Pasadena Bikestation Seattle CA E85 Network Biomethane Task Force Hydrogen Biofuels Hybrid Truck Users Forum National Fuel Cell Bus Tech Program LNG and Hybrid Electric Yard Hostlers Construction Equipment Forum California Secure Transportation Energy Partnership HTUF Incentives WG Industry Services Participant Services Technical Advisory Committee Conferences Publications 5-Year Goal: To Develop Vehicles, Fuels and Systems that Can Reduce Petroleum Use 20% by 2020 Policy Consulting Services Fleet Assistance: Ports, “ Green Fleets” Roadmapping Market Analysis New Fuels
  • 7. Trends & Drivers of Change
    • GLOBAL WARMING – Move to reduce GHGs intensifying and pushing fuel economy – focus and urgency increases in 2007
      • States/communities are leaders, efforts growing – Calif AB 32 increases momentum
      • California CO2 tailpipe rules spreading to more states, challenging EPA
      • Several climate change bills and CAFÉ now in Congress (summer 2007)
      • Energy efficiency reduces GHG impact
      • Fuel switching and blending reduces GHG impact
      • Modal split (transit) has long term role
    • ENERGY SECURITY: FUEL SUPPLY AND COSTS – Traditional fuel supplies & refining capacity barely meeting current demand
      • The need for fuel blends is increasing; Biofuels will see growth as key blend agent
      • Rise of non-traditional hydrocarbons possible – but facing serious questions (impacts)
      • Regional fuel variation and choice will become more prevalent
      • Alternatives now becoming economically competitive with petroleum
      • Biofuel hybrids show great promise to push fuel cells further into future
    • EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS – World population increasingly urban and world emission standards increasingly toward CA/Euro standards
      • EU and US may align in 2012-2015 timeline
      • Fine particulates (nano particles) will be of increasing concern from combustion
  • 8. High Energy Costs Here to Stay
    • $100 bbl oil peak reached
    • $4 gal fuel coming?
    • US EIA forecasts heavy demand will keep imported oil prices on rise until 2014; new supplies after then may ease supply crunch, cause decline in crude costs
    Source: TFC Commodity Charts, Brent Crude Oil, ADM Investor Services
  • 9. Fighting Global Warming
    • More fuel efficient vehicles
    • Hybrid vehicles
    • Cleaner diesel vehicles
    • Biofuels
    • Modal shifts to rail and public transport
    • Non-motorized vehicles
    • Land use and transit planning
    IPCC Climate Change Mitigation Report (May 4):
  • 10.
    • There is no “Silver Bullet” – no single technical or fuel solution that exists today
  • 11. The New “Strike Zone” in Transportation Air Quality Climate Change Energy Security Balances all three competing needs Integrated Solutions Needed
  • 12. Why Hybrids Are Gaining Traction with Fleets
    • Rising fuel costs : Optimizing urban truck drivelines is becoming critical for fuel efficiency, emissions
    • Major engine changes – and increased cost/complexity – coming in 2007-2010 to comply with EPA emissions requirements
    • Idle Management is a growing issue nationwide
    • Productivity/performance complaints from cleaner engines
    • “ Green Footprint” – pressures from management to reduce carbon and overall environmental impacts
    • Trend toward integrated engine/drivelines in trucks
    • Increasing electrical power needs in heavy vehicles and equipment
  • 13.
      • Eaton sells 30 hybrid electric buses to China
      • Freightliner to produce 1,500 M2 hybrid trucks in next 3 years
      • Peterbilt/Eaton to enter production hydraulic refuse truck 2008
      • Azure plans production of hybrid shuttles in 2008
      • Kenworth and Peterbilt announce production plans for medium hybrid trucks in 2008
      • International launches first hybrid production: Fall 2007
      • Eaton moves into production of hybrid drive system
      • Kenworth announces pre-production delivery hybrid truck
      • FedEx/Azure announce partnership on gas-electric hybrids
      • Peterbilt testing Class 8 hybrid with Eaton system
      • ArvinMeritor signs Wal-Mart agreement for Class 8 hybrids
      • Oshkosh unveils hybrid refuse truck at HTUF meeting
      • Peterbilt introduces Class 7 hybrid truck for customer trials
      • International builds first production-line hybrids in Nov 06
      • Freightliner unveils Class 7 utility hybrid on M2 chassis
      • Azure/StarTrans agreement on producing hybrid shuttles
      • UPS testing advanced series hydraulic hybrid prototype
      • Bosch-Rexroth buys Dana hydraulic hybrid drive unit
      • Misubishi-Fuso Unveil Hybrid work truck (Cl 4-5 delivery)
      • ISE builds 50 advanced hybrid buses for Las Vegas
      • Volvo announces hybrid heavy trucks for 2009 production
    Recent Heavy Hybrid News There is Tremendous Momentum Growing
  • 14. Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF)
    • Goal: Speed the development and introduction of commercially viable medium- and heavy-duty hybrid trucks in the U.S.
    • User driven process involving more than 80 fleets with > 1 million trucks
    • Joint WestStart-U.S. Army program
  • 15. HTUF National Meeting 2007 Hybrid Truck Users Forum - 7 th Meeting
    • Two and a half day forum at Qwest Field, Seattle
    • More than 430 attendees, one quarter fleet users – a new record
    • 19 med. and heavy-duty hybrids in ride and drive – a new industry record
    • All major trucks makers and suppliers involved in process
  • 16. Key Findings at HTUF 2007
    • HTUF process has taken 1-2 years off the development cycle of med and heavy-duty hybrids – Paul Skalny, Director, Army’s National Automotive Center
    • Hybrid trucks now at cusp of first production
      • International launching first production of medium duty hybrids Fall 2007
      • Peterbilt and Kenworth start production of medium duty hybrids in 2008
      • Peterbilt begins production of refuse truck hybrid in 2008, and Class 8 big-rig hybrid in 2009
      • Mack/Volvo to start hybrid truck production in 2009
    • Class 8 hybrids are a key new capability emerging in more-efficient trucks – could impact biggest fuel users on road
    • Better purchase incentives are needed to help fleets adopt technology sooner
    • Need to speed pre-production trucks and equipment in additional applications (including small bus and Class 8)
    • New technology needed: energy storage; more-efficient components; light-weight materials; power generation; optimized engines
  • 17. First US Hybrid Truck Production
    • International: will launch first production hybrid trucks – “DuraStar Hybrid” – Sept 2007
    • Can build up to 1000 units per year to start – uses Eaton hybrid electric driveline
    • Builds on HTUF-assisted effort: 100 “Production-Intent” hybrid trucks built in 2006 and delivered to customers
      • Incremental cost remains high and purchase assistance needed
      • Roughly half are “utility” type trucks, half other applications (regional delivery/cargo, flatbed, reefer, etc.)
    Brochure
  • 18. Pre-Production – Hydraulic Refuse Truck
    • Peterbilt in field pilot testing of hydraulic hybrid refuse truck (63,000 pound GVWR) using Eaton hydraulic hybrid system (HLA)
    • Pre-production in 2006/2007 – Production in 2008
    • Eaton to use same pump/accumulator design for hydraulic shuttle bus
    • Fuel savings in 10-30% range – carbon reductions track fuel reductions closely
    Peterbilt Hybrid Refuse Chassis
  • 19. Recent Introductions Azure/Ford gasoline-electric hybrid IC/Enova hybrid shuttle bus Peterbilt Class 7 hybrid utility truck EPA/Eaton series hydraulic hybrid prototype Freightliner Class 6/7 hybrid utility truck Kenworth Class 7 hybrid truck Odyne/Dueco plug-in hybrid prototype E-One hybrid command center
  • 20. Multiple Applications from Core Hybrid Chassis
    • Hybrid systems expanding in number of applications they can address
  • 21. Class 8 Hybrids – New Possibility
    • Peterbilt is now testing this hybrid prototype of its heavy-duty Model 386 tractor
    • Example of the new capabilities and markets emerging for hybrid technology
    • Port yard hostler hybrids to be developed in WestStart project with Ports of Long Beach and LA
    • Vehicles common at port, rail and distribution centers
  • 22. HTUF Working Groups Today
    • 6 Core Working Groups of fleet truck users now operating, plus:
      • 1 WG partnership with NTEA (light truck)
      • 1 new Forum forming (construction equip.)
      • 1 Task Force: Plug-in HE Trucks (PHET)
    • Main Working Groups:
      • Utility/Specialty trucks – George Survant, Florida Power & Light, user lead
      • Parcel Delivery trucks – Jerry Swart, FedEx Ground; Robert Hall, UPS – user leads
      • Refuse Truck Working Group – Matt Stewart, City of Chicago Sanitation, user lead
      • Bus Working Group – Tony Bryant, Tri-Met, user lead (launched with support of Federal Transit Administration)
      • Class 8 Working Group – active
      • Incentives Working Group – active
  • 23.
    • Utility/Specialty Vehicle Working Group
    • More than 40 major fleets involved
    • 14 fleets in pre-production assessment
      • 24 International/Eaton Class 6/7 trucks now completing 18-months of testing
      • High overall reliability with excellent user acceptance
      • Preliminary fuel economy improvements 10% – 55% depending upon duty cycle; some vehicles being moved to “better” applications
    • Next Steps: working with fleets to extend demand to larger variants (material handlers), plug-in variants, Class 5 platforms
  • 24.
    • HTUF Moving Rapidly
    • Working Group Activities (continued)
      • Refuse Vehicle
        • Announcement in next few weeks
        • Will deploy electric and hydraulic variants
        • Competition growing in this space
      • Hydraulic Hybrid Parcel Delivery
        • Announcement in next few weeks
        • Hydraulic tech demonstration
      • Shuttle Bus
        • 22 fleets involved
        • Spec info being gathered from fleets – RFP in 2008
      • Plug-in Hybrid Truck (PHET)
          • Develop a PHET business case
          • Define best target vehicles and applications
          • Developing a “Fast Track” deployment
  • 25.
    • HTUF Moving Rapidly
    • Working Group Activities
      • Incentives WG
        • Partnership with Environmental Defense
        • Successfully moved IRS guidance language on EPAct 2005 tax credits
        • Shaping improved incentive package
        • More than 50 involved companies: fleets, manufacturers
      • Class 8 Over the Road and Regional Delivery
        • Being initiated after announcements by Eaton and Arvin Meritor re: their hybrid development work with Wal-Mart
        • Cooperation with EPA SmartWay Program
        • Preliminary interest now expressed by FedEx Ground, UPS, Purolator, Safeway, Penske, Westar Transport, ConWay and Wal-Mart
  • 26.
    • Commercial Construction Equipment
        • Completed data gathering to identify
          • Key players in the CCE industry
          • Most frequently used construction equipment
          • Greatest opportunities for efficiency improvement
          • Military needs
        • Broad end-use applications
          • Loaders - Excavators
          • Bulldozers - Scrapers
          • Graders
        • Drivers
          • EPA Tier 4 Emissions
          • Proposed CARB rules for off-road heavy-duty
          • Capital and fuel costs
          • Work activities rather than motive needs
          • Hydraulically driven tools and equipment
        • Next Step: Bring together an industry forum
  • 27. Class 6/7 Deployment Data to Date
    • 24 trucks delivered – nearing 18 months of service on first trucks
    • 391 total truck months of service through Aug 07; 409,352 miles
    • Availability of trucks high: 99+% overall daily availability of hybrid systems
    • Strong user acceptance and trucks meeting mission needs
    • Fuel economy varies by fleet and use
      • 54% fuel economy gain for highest fleet
      • 14% fuel economy gain for lowest fleet
      • Biggest variables: mileage driven versus work site “boom” time (more work site time equals better mpg)
  • 28. Overall Fuel Consumption Improvements
    • Overall savings as high as 54%
    • Total Gallons over Total Operation hours, capturing engine ON and OFF operation
    • Dependant on duty cycle!
    Decrease 2.1 to 1.4 gal/h totals fuel saving from 14.7 - 9.8 gallons, or 34% Lab Testing savings from 12.5 – 7.5 gallons, or 40%
  • 29. Availability of HEV System: All Units Courtesy Eaton Majority of trucks show high availability!
  • 30. Vehicle Issues Per Truck One issue per field test truck every two years!
  • 31. Timeline to Commercialization: Hybrid Tech Now Starting in Trucks Test prototypes and systems Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles) Assembly line builds up to 100+ Initial commercial volumes – still high incremental cost TOOLS: R&D Support Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF) Purchase Incentives Driving Up Early Sales Volume is Critical Development Pre-Production Production Intent Early Production
  • 32. What’s Target for Volumes, Price? 100,000 10 100 1000 2,000-3,000 5,000 10,000 Increase Volumes in Markets With Similar Drivelines to Lower Costs Driveline Incremental Cost in $ 75,000 50,000 25,000 15,000 Yearly Similar Driveline Volumes Target Price Points Driveline Volumes Needed for Price Points
  • 33. Hybrid Incremental Cost – The “Wedges” Fuel savings, Maintenance savings, Increased productivity – use $3.50/gal fuel prices Rewards high fuel economy Gains: 30-50% Must work together to get these two
  • 34. Actions/Accomplishments
    • Jointly helped speed IRS guidance language to be able to use EPAct 2005 tax credits for med and heavy hybrids (language is now out)
    • Working to extend those credits beyond 2009 to 2012 (also trying to increase tax credits and make easier for public fleets to use)
    • Have developed framework for what fleets and manufacturers agree is needed to support hybrids
    • Targeting two tiers: federal level as well as state and regional level
  • 35. EPAct National HD Hybrid Tax Credits
    • Credit is based on weight of vehicle and fuel efficiency gains of hybrid system
    • Provides increasing credit for greater efficiency
    • Limits incremental cost
    • Credit available for five years starting in 2005
    * based on maximum qualified incremental cost $12,000 $9,000 $6,000 >26,000 lb $6,000 $4,500 $3,000 14,001 - 26,000 lb $3,000 $2,250 $1,500 8,501 – 14,000 lb Maximum Tax Credit for 50% Fuel Economy Increase* Maximum Tax Credit for 40% Fuel Economy Increase* Maximum Tax Credit for 30% Fuel Economy Increase* Vehicle weight
  • 36. CA Governor Signs Major CALSTART Sponsored Bill for Incentives
    • AB 118 (N úñ ez) Creates new annual $200 million transportation program in California
    • Funding targeted at measures that would improve air quality, reduce greenhouse gases, and oil dependence over 7.5 years
    • $120 million to support both research, development, and demonstration of new technologies advanced vehicle incentives, and deployment (incentives) for low carbon fuels and advanced vehicles – Energy Commission
    • Additional $80 million for measures to solely improve air quality – Air Resources Board
    • Funding guidelines in development: possibly available Fall 2008
    Speaker Núñez Governor Schwarzenegger
  • 37. Potential AB 118 Deployment Funding Categories
    • Low carbon fuel infrastructure
    • Medium- and Heavy-Duty Vehicles
    • Non-Road Vehicles (i.e. construction equipment)
    • Significantly more efficient passenger cars (beyond today’s best hybrids)
    • Low carbon fuel passenger cars
    • Near-shore marine vessels (i.e. tugboats and ferries)
    • New vehicles and retrofit systems & technologies
    Key Need & Opportunity Areas
  • 38. Biofuel Hybrids: Multiplier Effect
    • Hybrid vehicles combined with bio-fuel blends can lead to greatly increased petroleum offsets, GHG reductions
    • Example from FPL:
      • Hybrid utility trucks achieving 55% fuel economy increase, running on B30 blends, can more thancut in half the oil use of trucks they replace
    • Benefits vary by duty cycle, blend
    • Reductions available today, not in future
      • for energy security and climate change
  • 39. Deployment, Testing & Production Ramp-up HTUF: “Expanding the Funnel” From Hybrids to More Efficient Trucks 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Early Production: 500+ Truck Deploy Launches Commercial Phase Testing Evaluation Validation Biofuel hybrids GTL/BTL Synthetics Energy storage Plug in modes Power generation Electrified components First Commercial Volumes Capabilities Enhancement 4+ hybrid system suppliers each at min. 2500 system/year volumes 6 truck/ chassis OEMs active Industry volume 20k hybrids/year Technology Enhancement Increased Truck Volume Industrial Hybrid Segment Commercial Hybrids Outcomes: 40-50% fuel use reductions per vehicle Increased capabilities of silent watch, power gen Increased Truck Volume Shuttle Hybrid Segment Class 8 OTR and Drayage Hybrid Increased Truck Volume Delivery Hybrid Segments Increased Truck Volume Utility 5-7 Hybrid Segment Increased Truck Volume Refuse Hybrid Segment
  • 40.
    • Not Yet at “Tipping Point” for hybrid commercialization – but making strong progress
      • Have sped commercialization process by 1-2 years
        • One truck maker in production
        • Three truck makers entering production-intent manufacturing process, one in pre-production
      • Still behind automotive curve – but business case is driver
    • Hybrids are one of several critical “wedge” strategies to boost fuel economy, reduce GHG
      • First targets urban vocational trucks
      • Will likely also have Class 8 impacts
      • Enabling technology for many future advancements
      • Expect yearly volumes to exceed 2-3 thousand in next 3 years
    • Need targeted incentives: Federal and State
      • Partnership of fleets, manufacturers and government
      • Structured to work in commercial market
      • Also need regional incentives and “aligned” incentives across regions
    Conclusion: Status of Hybrid Trucks
  • 41. HTUF 2008 National Meeting
    • Join us for 8 th National Meeting in Fall 2008
    • Date and location announcement due in next two weeks (late Sept/Early Oct)
    • Will feature “Hybrid 101” sessions, expanded ride and drive, product briefings, Working Group meetings, latest technology and incentives information
  • 42. Clean Transportation Solutions SM www.weststart.org For info contact: Bill Van Amburg (626) 744-5600 [email_address] www.htuf.org Advanced Transportation Technologies SM