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Tampa Abc stadium-options-grp-presentation-7-16-09

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  • 1. ABC Stadium Options Group Data Research and Realities Subcommittee Summary of Findings July 16, 2009
  • 2. COMMITTEE Geralyn Franklin (ex Chair) University of Dallas Sean Lux (co-Chair) USF Scott Geiger (co-Chair) USF St. Petersburg Jon DeLuca St. Petersburg Times Nancy Howe Maddux Business Reports Joe Flemming ( ex-officio ) City of St. Petersburg
  • 3. Mission: Identify, analyze and compare existing and potential baseball trade areas within the Tampa Bay MSA MISSION
  • 4.
    • Downtown St. Petersburg
    • Mid-Pinellas (North St. Pete)
    • Westshore
    • Downtown Tampa
    • Fairgrounds
    FIVE TRADE AREAS SELECTED
  • 5.
    • Key Criterion: Number of potential season ticket sales.
    • 2 to 1 business to individual season ticket sales in most MLB markets.
    • In Tampa Bay, that ratio is 2 to 1 individual to business season ticket sales
    KEY CRITERIA
  • 6. Data Accumulated By Tampa Bay Rays Ticket Services. SINGLE GAME TICKET BUYERS BY COUNTY
  • 7. NEW 2009 SEASON TICKET HOLDERS VS 2008 BY COUNTY 2008 Season Ticket Holders 2009 New Season Ticket Holders Data Accumulated By Tampa Bay Rays Ticket Services.
  • 8. RAYS FANS AS CUSTOMERS Rays Fans defined as attended, listened to or watched a Rays game in the past 12 months Scarborough Tampa, FL 2008 R2
    • Compared to the Tampa Bay market, Rays Fans are more likely to be:
      • Educated – 45% more likely to have a post-graduate degree
      • Wealthy – 32% more likely to have a household income of $100,000 or more
      • Homeowners – 29% more likely to have a home valued at $350,000 or more
    (100 = Market Average)
  • 9. 1. Methodology 2. Overview of the Tampa Bay MSA 3. The Five Trade Areas in Detail 4. Findings OVERVIEW
  • 10. Trade Areas were defined as 30 and 60 minute drive times (avg from the mid-point in the trade area). Maps were developed using ESRI’s proprietary software. ESRI utilizes the TeleAtlas database to estimate drive times. DEFINING TRADE AREAS
  • 11. EXAMPLE TRADE AREA RED = 30 MIN GREEN = 60 MIN
  • 12.
    • Trade Area Overview
      • Population Demographics
    • Trade Area Business Activity
      • Potential Business Season Ticket Holders
    • Trade Area Baseball Market
      • Potential Individual Season Ticket Holders
    METHODOLOGY
  • 13.
    • Overview
      • ESRI (estimates based on 2000 U.S. Census)
      • Equifax (information from credit ratings)
    • Business Activity
      • Dunn & Bradstreet (all U.S. businesses processing credit card transactions)
    • Baseball Market
      • ESRI (market tapestries)
      • Scarborough (phone survey)
    DATA SOURCES
  • 14. ESRI compiles its data based on the trade area maps its software develops. Equifax, Dunn & Bradstreet, and Scarborough data were compiled by zip code. We approximated what zip codes were in each 30 and 60 min trade area for these data sources. Data for Polk and Sarasota Counties unavailable for Equifax & Dunn & Bradstreet COMPILING THE DATA
  • 15. 2008 2013 (est.) Total Households 1,720,306 1,848,609 Total Population 3,426,162 3,742,946 Median Age 46 47 Household Income $48,056 $51,184 *7 Counties: Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota Source: ESRI TAMPA BAY MSA*
  • 16. GROWTH BY COUNTY 2009 1 2014 1 2030 2 2050 3 Pinellas 928,860 915,823 1,093,857 1,372,781 Hillsborough 1,222,012 1,326,822 1,672,554 2,098,901 Pasco 471,208 538,705 692,973 945,296 Manatee 327,229 355,638 461,801 622,210 Polk 600,417 663,560 945,296 1,047,890 Sarasota 394,369 426,950 503,436 695,985 Hernando 173,694 198,988 261,139 347,960 1 Source: ESRI; 2 Source: Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BEBR), West Central Florida Transportation Model (WCF Tran); 3 Source: REMI & WCF Tran
  • 17. PERCENTAGE GROWTH 2014 1 2030 2 2050 3 TOTAL Pinellas -1.40% 19.44% 25.50% 47.79% Hillsborough 8.58% 26.06% 25.49% 71.76% Pasco 14.32% 28.64% 36.41% 100.61% Manatee 8.68% 29.85% 34.74% 90.15% Polk 10.52% 42.46% 10.85% 74.53% Sarasota 8.26% 17.91% 38.25% 76.48% Hernando 14.56% 31.23% 33.25% 100.33% 1 Source: ESRI; 2 Source: Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI), Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BEBR), West Central Florida Transportation Model (WCF Tran); 3 Source: REMI & WCF Tran
  • 18. DOWNTOWN ST. PETERSBURG RED = 30 MIN GREEN = 60 MIN
  • 19. MID PINELLAS RED = 30 MIN GREEN = 60 MIN
  • 20. WESTSHORE RED = 30 MIN GREEN = 60 MIN
  • 21. DOWNTOWN TAMPA RED = 30 MIN GREEN = 60 MIN
  • 22. FAIRGROUNDS RED = 30 MIN GREEN = 60 MIN
  • 23. OVERALL COMPARISON 2035 1 2050 2 GROWTH Downtown St. Petersburg 1,543,047 1,749,816 13.40% Mid Pinellas 2,186,612 2,482,183 13.52% Westshore 2,795,898 3,249,366 16.22% Downtown Tampa 2,265,168 2,649,404 16.96% Fairgrounds 2,197,280 2,626,506 19.53% 1 Source: Tampa Bay Region Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) 2 Source: West Central Florida Transportation Model (WCF Tran) 30 Minute Trade Areas
  • 24. OVERALL COMPARISON 2035 1 2050 2 GROWTH Downtown St. Petersburg 4,647,134 5,572,165 19.91% Mid Pinellas 4,982,194 6,049,258 21.42% Westshore 4,958,365 2,793,825 22.36% Downtown Tampa 4,958,365 6,066,817 22.71% Fairgrounds 5,267,652 6,459,167 22.62% 1 Source: Tampa Bay Region Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) 2 Source: West Central Florida Transportation Model (WCF Tran) 60 Minute Trade Areas
  • 25. OVERALL COMPARISON 2008 30 Minute Trade Areas     Downtown St. Pete Mid Pinellas Westshore Downtown Tampa Fairgrounds Overall Demographics             Total Population 1,136,452 1,573,116 1,609,189 1,665,257 1,459,281   Age (avg) 42.1 41 38.6 38.4 37.1   Avg. Household Income (ESRI) $45,057 $47,054 $49,587 $50,306 $50,818   Avg. Household Income (Equifax) $39,100 $41,400 $42,700 $42,900 $44,200   Households > $75K Income (ESRI) 123,032 182,304 191,849 200,206 174,880   Households > $75K Income (Equifax) 84,867 132,667 154,405 142,409 108,923
  • 26.
    • All five trade areas have similar populations within 60 minutes drive time.
    • However, differences exist amongst the 30 minutes trade areas.
    • The Downtown St. Petersburg trade area has less economic activity and population than the other four.
    KEY FINDINGS For 2008…….
  • 27. KEY FINDINGS
    • Compared to the average of the other four trade areas, the Downtown St. Petersburg Trade Area has…….
    • 28% less population
    • 9% less household income
    • 35% less households with $75K of greater in income
    • and is 8% older
    2008 30 Min Trade Areas
  • 28. OVERALL COMPARISON 2013 60 Min Trade Areas     Downtown St. Pete Mid Pinellas Westshore Downtown Tampa Fairgrounds Overall Demographics             Total Population 3,588,205 3,804,573 3,836,714 3,954,561 4,009,964   Age (avg) 43.4 43.4 43.1 43.2 43.2   Avg. Household Income (ESRI) $57,198 $56,089 $55,224 $55,436 $55,600   Households > $75K Income (ESRI) 539,036 543,260 527,930 548,515 560,418
  • 29.
    • Differences in 60 min trade areas begin to develop.
    • Hillsborough TA’s will grow approximately ¾% more than Downtown St. Pete.
    • Homes w/ more than $75K income will grow by 20% more in other four TA’s over Downtown St. Pete.
    KEY FINDINGS 2013 60 Min Trade Areas
  • 30. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY COMPARISON 2008 30 Min Trade Areas 1 1 Firms with more than 10 employees. Source: Dunn&Bradstreet Downtown St. Pete Mid Pinellas Westshore Downtown Tampa Fairgrounds Business Activity             Firms 12,747 16,274 17,708 16,100 12,577   Total Employees 648,005 807,172 854,643 814,147 655,195   Total Revenue $67.8 B $84 B $85.9 B $85.8B $69.8 B
  • 31.
    • Mid Pinellas, Westshore, and Downtown Tampa have an average economic activity of $85.23 Billion
    • Fairgrounds Trade Area has $15.3 B or 18% less economic activity
    • Downtown St. Pete has $17.4 B or 20.5% less economic activity
    KEY FINDINGS 2008 30 Min Trade Areas
  • 32. BASEBALL MARKET COMPARISON 2008 30 Min Trade Areas Baseball Market Information Downtown St. Pete Mid Pinellas Westshore Downtown Tampa Fairgrounds   Household Entertainment Expenditures $1.6 B $2.2 B $2.2 B $2.3 B $2.0 B   Rays Fans 438,358 545,146 557,223 561,366 401,634   Attended a Rays’ game in last 12 months 217,756 275,068 250,820 247,237 173,606   % Trade Area Population Attending Games 19.16% 17.49% 15.59% 14.85% 11.90%   Potential Season Ticket Purchasers 26,723 55,595 107,728 129,461 126,760
  • 33.
    • Mid Pinellas, Westshore, and Downtown Tampa have more Rays Fans than:
    • Downtown St. Pete Trade Area (116K or 26.5% less)
    • Fairgrounds (153 K or 27.6% less)
    KEY FINDINGS
  • 34.
    • On average, more people currently attend Rays games from Mid Pinellas, Westshore, and Downtown Tampa than:
    • Downtown St. Pete Trade Area (39.95 K or 18.35% less)
    • Fairgrounds (84K or 32.6% less)
    KEY FINDINGS
  • 35. Trade Area % of Population attending Downtown St. Pete 19.16% Mid Pinellas 17.49% Westshore 15.59% Downtown Tampa 14.85% Fairgrounds 11.90% KEY FINDINGS The further away from the stadium you live, the less likely you are to attend Rays’ games:
  • 36. KEY QUESTION Would more or less of 19.2% of the population attend a Rays’ game IF the stadium was within a 30 min drive? Limited information to address this question. ESRI’s Market Tapestries provides some insight.
  • 37. ESRI categorizes Americans by 12 life styles/stages and 11 location categories. This creates 65 consumer segments or “tapestries.” ESRI studies the buying patterns of people in these 65 tapestries. Purchasing behavior information is deduced on media, financial, entertainment, diet, and vacation preferences. WHAT’S A TAPESTRY?
  • 38. ENTERTAINMENT PREFERENCES TAMPA BAY MSA Trade Area Entertainment Preferences The Arts Baseball Golf Football Basketball Hockey Auto Racing Gaming Outdoors & Exercise Downtown St. Pete 27,716 48,819 5.6% 4.3% 9,040 26,723 1.8% 2.4% 98,850 220,028 20% 19.4% 125,009 274,144 25.3% 24.1% 121,242 290,449 24.5% 25.6% 77,585 183,230 15.7% 16.1% 142,399 328,854 28.8% 28.9% 119,112 238,871 24.1% 21% 363,321 759,762 73.9% 66.9% Mid Pinellas 32,941 74,279 4.9% 4.7% 19,265 55,595 2.8% 3.5% 156,700 359,643 23.1% 22.9% 175,720 344,475 25.9% 21.9% 163,969 469,275 24.2% 29.8% 97,772 220,447 14.4% 14% 175,674 406,795 25.9% 25.9% 151,559 307,499 23.4% 19.6% 482,051 1,110,192 71.1% 70.6% Westshore 33,196 75,888 5% 4.7% 34,475 107,728 5.6% 6.7% 167,519 342,750 25.2% 21.3% 176,262 393,718 26.7% 24.5% 216,977 439,099 32.7% 27.3% 75,601 177,068 11.4% 11% 167,482 409,740 25.2% 25.5% 112,108 232,938 16.9% 14.5% 514,099 1,207,706 77.4% 75.1% Downtown Tampa 32,446 73,907 4.8% 4.5% 44,775 129,461 6.6% 7.8% 145,060 347,343 21.3% 21% 153,335 349,968 22.5% 21.1% 167,988 400,755 24.7% 24.2% 73,352 172,438 10.8% 10.4% 139,522 416,008 20.5% 25.1% 111,755 232,561 16.4% 14% 513,261 1,235,670 75.4% 74.7% Fairgrounds 30,086 67,650 5.1% 4.6% 43,174 126,760 7.3% 8.7% 115,324 290,788 19.7% 19.9% 116,896 271,291 19.9% 18.6% 155,878 359,653 26.7% 24.6% 75,151 123,039 12.8% 8.4% 117,961 325,798 20.1% 22.3% 93,109 159,224 15.9% 10.9% 458,840 1,196,989 78.2% 82% # of Households % of Households St. Pete 494,103 North Pinellas 677,711 Westshore 663,837 Downtown Tampa 680,972 Fair Grounds 586,842 # of Individuals % of Population 1,136,451 1,573,116 1,609,192 1,655,260 1,459,279
  • 39. Population breakdown by Trade Area for consumers with attending baseball games as a stated entertainment preference: POTENTIAL SEASON TIX Downtown St. Pete Mid Pinellas Westshore DowntownTampa Fairgrounds 26,723 55,595 107,728 129,461 126,760
  • 40. WHAT’S NEXT? Questions?