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Stories of the Future: Telling Scenarios

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http://www.nmc.org/preso/8040


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  • 1. Stories of the Future:
    Telling Scenarios
  • 2. Scenarios
    Stories about futures
    Event and response
    Creativity
    Roles and times
    Emergent practices and patterns
  • 3. Who am I?
    NITLE senior fellow
    Social media mainline
    Future studies
  • 4. Today’s plan
    GamifiedReality
    The Long Great Recession
    Past Peak Oil
    WorldBoard
  • 5. Caveats are mandatory
    Each scenario can be intertwingled
    Narrative and/or complexity
    Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror
  • 6. I: Gamified Reality
  • 7. Gaming extends throughout everyday life:…literally…practically…conceptually
  • 8.
  • 9. Very explicitly about behavior modification
  • 10. Imperial gamification
  • 11. Large simulations are normal
    (political and mundane)
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. II: The Long Great Recession
  • 15. Federal funding continues
  • 16.
  • 17. Turning Japan in the 1990s
  • 18. Stagnation and decline
  • 19. Decay sets in, grows
  • 20. Chronic popular discontent
    Media battles
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23. III: Past Peak Oil
  • 24.
  • 25.
  • 26. “’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”
  • 27. Nightmare scenario
    It gets worse:
    No full replacements
    Population and demand grow
    Costs keep growing
    Oil is used for:
    Transportation
    Food fertilizer
    Medicines
    Plastics
  • 28. Some checks
    New Saudi Arabias
    Miracle science
    Global recession
    Climate change disasters
  • 29. Shift to any alternatives
  • 30. Hoarding and panics
  • 31. Security state intensifies
  • 32. Walled gardens proliferate
  • 33. Military adventures attract
  • 34. Infrastructure breaks down
  • 35.
  • 36. IV: WorldBoard
  • 37. World of sensor nets
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
  • 43. Back to 2010
  • 44. Back to 2010
  • 45. NITLE
    http://nitle.org
    Techne
    http://blogs.nitle.org/
    NITLE prediction markets game
    http://markets.nitle.org/
    Bryan on Twitter
    http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander

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