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NITLE Prediction Markets, CNI 2008 presentation

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    NITLE Prediction Markets, CNI 2008 presentation NITLE Prediction Markets, CNI 2008 presentation Presentation Transcript

    • Prediction Markets for Emerging Technology in Higher Education: An Experiment in the Wisdom of Crowds Coalition for Networked Information December 2008
    • Plan of the talk
      • Sketch of prediction markets
      • NITLE program history
      • Market structure and operations
      • Reflections and next steps
    • NITLE
      • Nonprofit, working to advance technology in liberal education
    • Prediction markets
      • The original: Iowa Political Stock Market (IPSM) (University of Iowa, Robert Forsythe et al )
      • 1988 on: The Iowa Electronic Markets http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/
        • This morning the market was at 50.2 cents for a Clinton share and 48.6 cents for a Bush share, with Perot investors holding die-hard paper.
        • (The New York Times, August 19, 1992)
      • 2008 Presidential election visibility
      Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade - 11/04/08 http://b2e.nitle.org/index.php/ 2008/11/04/prediction_markets _forecast_obama_win
    • Prediction markets
      • Google, sports, Foresight Exchange, many companies, DARPA
      (Cowgill, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, 2008; http://www.ideosphere.com/ )
    • Exploration for technology and higher education
      • What program relevance? Connections with NITLE programs and interests:
      • Gaming
      • Crowdsourcing
      • Distributed intelligence (Surowiecki, 2004)
      • NITLE communities
      • Emergent technologies
    • Pilot phase
      • Advisory group
      • Conference demo (April 2008)
      • Segmented markets
      • Long-term props
      • Select vendor ( http:// inklingmarkets.com / )
      (NITLE Summit, San Francisco April 2008)
    • Pilot
      • Example proposition:
        • By what year will the majority of institutions provide a repository service for sharing scholarship and research?
      • End of 2010 - 2011 academic year
      • End of 2009 - 2010 academic year
      • End of 2008 - 2009 academic year
    • Beta
      • Responses to pilot: unitary market
      • Public beta launch (August 2008)
    • Architecture
      • Web 2.0 approach
        • Microcontent
        • AJAX operations
        • Social tools
        • Integration with NITLE LET
        • Tag cloud
        • Fluid development
        • RSS feed
      • Centerpiece: series of propositions
      • Secondary media: email, blog
    • Propositions
      • Creation
      • Mechanism
      (SurveyMonkey)
    • Propositions
      • Creation
      • Timing
    • Propositions
      • Creation
      • Language
    • Propositions
      • Details and price
    • Propositions
      • Visualization
    • Propositions
      • Comments
    • Limitations
      • Being played (Umich; the Soros factor)
        • Monitor; self-correction
      • Black Swan (Nicholas Taleb; Asimov’s Mule)
        • Environmental scanning
      • Risk of apophenia
        • Social sifting
    • Lessons
      • Needs to complement with other futurism methods
        • Delphi, scenarios, trend extrapolation
      • “ “ “ “ “ venues and feedback mechanisms (surveys, blog, f2f, email)
    • Lessons
      • Push-pull dynamic
      • Importance of decision criteria
      • Different timeline arcs demanded
      • Fun was had
      • NITLE Liberal Education Today blog
    • Advantages
      • Continuous, real-time feedback
      • Cross-sector appeal
      • Insight generator
    • Advantages
      • Distributed intelligence
      • Uncontrolled intelligence
      (Bryan gets it wrong, part 323)
    • Further reflections
      • Complexity and analysis
      (Jesper Krogstrup, ReBoot 2007; image from Lars Ploughmann, on Flickr)
    • Further reflections
      • Simplicity level
      • Pedagogical use
      • Campus strategic use
    • Next steps
      • Continue operations through 20909
      • Add features
        • Widgets
        • Expand RSS feeds
        • Inklings and NITLE sides
      • Gather feedback
    • Next steps
      • Inform our programming
      • Hopefully be useful to strategic thinking
      • Research topics
        • Market efficiency (price coherence, forecast accuracy) and biases
        • Usage patterns
        • Platform for others’ research
    • Some sources
      • Cowgill, Wolfers, Zitzewitz, “Using Prediction Markets to Track Information Flows: Evidence from Google” (2008)
      • Iowa Prediction Markets research papers, http://www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem/archive/references.html
      • Pennock, Lawrence, Giles, Nielsen, "The Power of Play: Efficiency and Forecast Accuracy in Web Market Games", Science 2001
      • Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan (2007)
    • NITLE Prediction Markets http://markets.nitle.org National Institute for Technology and Liberal Education (NITLE) http://nitle.org Liberal Education Today blog http://b2e.nitle.org