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Futures2010
 

Futures2010

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    Futures2010 Futures2010 Presentation Transcript

    • Stories of the Future:
      Telling Scenarios
    • Scenarios
      Stories about futures
      Event and response
      Creativity
      Roles and times
      Emergent practices and patterns
    • Who am I?
      NITLE senior fellow
      Social media mainline
      Future studies
    • Today’s plan
      GamifiedReality
      The Long Great Recession
      Past Peak Oil
      WorldBoard
    • Caveats are mandatory
      Each scenario can be intertwingled
      Narrative and/or complexity
      Not the only futures: climate change, boom time, new age of terror
    • I: Gamified Reality
    • Gaming extends throughout everyday life:…literally…practically…conceptually
    • Very explicitly about behavior modification
    • Imperial gamification
    • Large simulations are normal
      (political and mundane)
    • II: The Long Great Recession
    • Federal funding continues
    • Turning Japan in the 1990s
    • Stagnation and decline
    • Decay sets in, grows
    • Chronic popular discontent
      Media battles
    • III: Past Peak Oil
    • “’By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in output could reach nearly 10 million barrels per day,’ says the report, which has a foreword by a senior commander, General James N Mattis.”
    • Nightmare scenario
      It gets worse:
      No full replacements
      Population and demand grow
      Costs keep growing
      Oil is used for:
      Transportation
      Food fertilizer
      Medicines
      Plastics
    • Some checks
      New Saudi Arabias
      Miracle science
      Global recession
      Climate change disasters
    • Shift to any alternatives
    • Hoarding and panics
    • Security state intensifies
    • Walled gardens proliferate
    • Military adventures attract
    • Infrastructure breaks down
    • IV: WorldBoard
    • World of sensor nets
    • Back to 2010
    • Back to 2010
    • NITLE
      http://nitle.org
      Techne
      http://blogs.nitle.org/
      NITLE prediction markets game
      http://markets.nitle.org/
      Bryan on Twitter
      http://twitter.com/BryanAlexander