CLAC 2010: Five Futures for Higher Education

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My intro to my CLAC 2010 talk. …

My intro to my CLAC 2010 talk.
Note the link from slide 11; that's to Prezi, where the bulk of the presentation is. Go there.

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Transcript

  • 1. Five Ways of Looking at the Liberal Arts Campus in 2015
    CLAC Conference 2010
    Dickinson College
  • 2. Looking
    back,
    looking
    ahead
  • 3. Futuresresearch
    Pew/Elon reports
    Horizon Report
    Prediction markets
    Also:
    • Future of Everything
    • 4. Educause Evolving Technologies Committee
    • 5. sf: VernorVinge
    • 6. NITLE Network
    • 7. Environmental scanning
  • trend extrapolation
    one key form of futurism
    default assumption is quantitative arc
    allow us to look for qual possibilities
    Examples
    OS balance
    # of courses in CMS
    Moore's law keeps working
    Photo: grapheneusing thermochemical nanolithography supplanting silicon
  • 8. trend extrapolation
    size of data
    5 exabytes of data online in 2002
    281 exabytes in 2009
    call it 11240 in 2015
    broadband increases
    social media content, diversity increase
  • 9. trend extrapolation
    continuing trendlines for ubicomp
    # of mobile devices
    internet of things
    • addressable objects (IP printers, etc)
    AR
    3d, non-keyboard interfaces growing steadily
  • 10. trend extrapolation
    campus-related trends
    ebooks grow
  • 11. trend extrapolation
    campus-related trends
    cyberinfrastructuregrows: sciences, humanities
    digitization continues: scanning, imaging
    CMS platforms
    …assume all of these for today's scenarios
  • 12. Scenarios
    Stories about futures
    Event and response
    Creativity
    Roles and times
    Emergent practices and patterns
  • 13. Scenarios
    JamaisCascio: thinking is the important good
    open up multiple outcomes
    intersections of trends can power new stuff
    not Black Swans, but flexible enough thinking to better enable us to think through BSes
  • 14. Caveats
    Overlap and interconnection
    Lots of gaps – that’s part of the plan
    No value judgments
    No probability assessments
  • 15. over to
    http://prezi.com/egocbx3gha-y/liberal-education-in-2015/
    or
    http://tinyurl.com/39zeqyd
  • 16. Credits
    Pew/ElonImagining the Internet, http://www.elon.edu/predictions/
    Future of Everything, NERCOMP/AC, http://www.academiccommons.org/futureofeverything
    NMC/ELI Horizon Report, http://www.nmc.org/horizon
    NITLE Prediction Markets, http://markets.nitle.org/
    Graphene developments, http://www.technologyreview.com/computing/25547/?nlid=3120&a=f
  • 17. Exabytes growing, Marisa Mayer, http://www.slideshare.net/PARCInc/innovation-at-google-the-physics-of-data
    Tanagrammilitary AR, http://spill.tanagram.com/2010/05/24/precise-overlay-registration-within-augmented-reality-a-glimpse-into-the-technology/
    Connexions, http://cnx.org/
    Black Swans: Field Museum Library, gnuckxcc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/
    Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html
    Uncredited photos: mine
  • 18. Credits for Prezi
    XKCD, http://xkcd.com/750/
    Democratized curation, http://www.hyperorg.com/blogger/2010/06/06/democratized-curation/
    ebooks outselling print by 2015, http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/sony/7798340/Sony-ebooks-to-overtake-print-within-five-years.html
    Beloit Mindset list: http://www.beloit.edu/mindset/
    FacebookQuora: http://mediamemo.allthingsd.com/20100531/facebook-moving-to-answer-the-quora-question/
    EpisilonAurigaecrowdsourcing, http://mysite.du.edu/~rstencel/epsaurnews.htm
  • 19. Jesse Schell, Is Your Life Just One Big RPG? http://e3.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/702668/dice-2010-video-design-outside-the-box.html
    HP CeNSE: Sensor Networks and the Pulse of the Planet, http://www.slideshare.net/hewlettpackard/hp-cense-sensor-networks-and-the-pulse-of-the-planet
  • 20. Twitterati: Joanne Golas, Owen Kelly, Chris Seller, David E. Robinson
    Other humans: Mike Sellers, NITLE staff, Todd Bryant, Ed Webb, Robert Renaud, Howard Rheingold
    …and thanks to CLAC for the opportunity.