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trend extrapolation one key form of futurism default assumption is quantitative arc allow us to look for qual possibilities Examples OS balance # of courses in CMS Moore's law keeps working Photo: grapheneusing thermochemical nanolithography supplanting silicon
trend extrapolation size of data 5 exabytes of data online in 2002 281 exabytes in 2009 call it 11240 in 2015 broadband increases social media content, diversity increase
trend extrapolation continuing trendlines for ubicomp # of mobile devices internet of things
trend extrapolation campus-related trends cyberinfrastructuregrows: sciences, humanities digitization continues: scanning, imaging CMS platforms …assume all of these for today's scenarios
Scenarios Stories about futures Event and response Creativity Roles and times Emergent practices and patterns
Scenarios JamaisCascio: thinking is the important good open up multiple outcomes intersections of trends can power new stuff not Black Swans, but flexible enough thinking to better enable us to think through BSes
Caveats Overlap and interconnection Lots of gaps – that’s part of the plan No value judgments No probability assessments
over to http://prezi.com/egocbx3gha-y/liberal-education-in-2015/ or http://tinyurl.com/39zeqyd
Exabytes growing, Marisa Mayer, http://www.slideshare.net/PARCInc/innovation-at-google-the-physics-of-data Tanagrammilitary AR, http://spill.tanagram.com/2010/05/24/precise-overlay-registration-within-augmented-reality-a-glimpse-into-the-technology/ Connexions, http://cnx.org/ Black Swans: Field Museum Library, gnuckxcc0, http://www.flickr.com/photos/34409164@N06/3209135920/ Great California Shakeout, http://www.shakeout.org/media/index.html Uncredited photos: mine
Jesse Schell, Is Your Life Just One Big RPG? http://e3.g4tv.com/thefeed/blog/post/702668/dice-2010-video-design-outside-the-box.html HP CeNSE: Sensor Networks and the Pulse of the Planet, http://www.slideshare.net/hewlettpackard/hp-cense-sensor-networks-and-the-pulse-of-the-planet
Twitterati: Joanne Golas, Owen Kelly, Chris Seller, David E. Robinson Other humans: Mike Sellers, NITLE staff, Todd Bryant, Ed Webb, Robert Renaud, Howard Rheingold …and thanks to CLAC for the opportunity.