Wi-Fi Opportunities In A 4G World

Current & Future Opportuni.es for Wi-‐Fi in a 4G World Brough Turner rbt@ashtonbrooke.com broughturner@gmail.com 1

ITU Vision for 3G Global Satellite Suburban Urban In-Building Picocell Microcell Macrocell Basic Terminal PDA Terminal Audio/Visual Terminal 2

“3G” Services •  3G-‐324M Video telephony •  Loca.on-‐based services •  Push-‐to-‐Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) •  Rich presence (instant messaging) •  Fixed-‐mobile convergence (FMC) •  IP Mul.media Services (w/ QoS) –  Video sharing (conversa.onal video on IP) •  Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision 3

“3G” Services •  3G-‐324M Video telephony Limited adoption •  Loca.on-‐based services •  Push-‐to-‐Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) Limited adoption •  Rich presence (instant messaging) •  Fixed-‐mobile convergence (FMC) Limited adoption •  IP Mul.media Services (w/ QoS) Limited adoption –  Video sharing (conversa.onal video on IP) •  Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision 4

“3G” Services •  3G-‐324M Video telephony Limited adoption •  Loca.on-‐based services Bypassed ! •  Push-‐to-‐Talk (VoIP w/o QoS) Limited adoption •  Rich presence (instant messaging) No traction •  Fixed-‐mobile convergence (FMC) Limited adoption •  IP Mul.media Services (w/ QoS) Limited adoption –  Video sharing (conversa.onal video on IP) •  Converged “All IP” networks – the Vision Too late … 5

The Internet is the killer pla[orm •  Mobile Internet access drives 3G data usage •  Future business models an open ques.on –  Walled garden – too late ! –  Adver.sing ? –  Other 2-‐sided business models ? 6

Mobile Internet Access •  For PC’s under restric.ve terms of service, e.g. no servers, no P2P, no subs.tu.on for private lines or frame relay •  AT&T: 5GB @ $60/mo •  Verizon: dieo •  Sprint: dieo •  No US operator oﬀers ﬂat rate unlimited plans 7

iPhone  glimmer of what’s possible •  Controlled eco-‐system –  Apps must meet unpublished Apple & AT&T requirements, e.g., VoIP over Wi-‐Fi, not 3G •  Explosive growth in mobile broadband usage 8

iPhone traﬃc 9

US data traﬃc 10

US 3G performance •  Novarum Inc. (1/2010) –  Measurements in 36 ci.es (Anaheim, …, Boston, …, Philly, …, Raleigh, …, Tempe) –  8-‐2007: 507/195 Kbps & 340 ms delay –  12-‐2009: 1.5 Mbps down •  Doubling < 24 months 11

Increasing capacity 5 Wi-Fi 4 2 Femtocell Internet 1 Operator Services 3 1.  Add Cellsites ($$$) 2.  Newer radios ($$) 4. Femtocells ($$) 3.  More backhaul ($$$) 5. Wi-Fi ($) 12

Spectrum history •  1920: Primi.ve radio receivers –  Needed to restrict who transmits 13

Spectrum history •  1920: Primi.ve radio receivers –  Needed to restrict who transmits •  1927-‐ 1934: Origin of FCC, spectrum licensing –  Ensuing decades -‐ almost all spectrum assigned –  Three bands reserved for “junk” uses 14

Spectrum history •  1920: Primi.ve radio receivers –  Needed to restrict who transmits •  1927-‐ 1934: Origin of FCC, spectrum licensing –  Ensuing decades -‐ almost all spectrum assigned –  Three bands reserved for “junk” uses •  1985: FCC authorizes spread spectrum communica.ons in the ISM, or “junk” bands, i.e. –  900 MHz, 2.4 GHz, 5.8 GHz 15

Wi-‐Fi History 1985 FCC permits communica.ons in “junk bands” at 900 MHz, 2.4 GHz & 5.8 GHz IEEE bodies iterate; eventually publish ﬁrst 802.11 spec 1988 -‐ 1997 Three alternate solu.ons for 1 Mbps opera.on with a 2 Mbps op.on 1999 802.11a – 54 Mbps at 5.8 GHz using OFDM modula.on 1999 802.11b – 11 Mbps at 2.4 GHz using DSSS modula.on Wireless Ethernet Compa.bility Alliance (WECA) formed 1999 – Focuses on interoperability and a cer.ﬁca.on program 2001 802.11d – extends the spec for other regulatory domains (EU, Japan, etc.) 2003 802.11g – 54 Mbps at 2.4 GHz using OFDM modula.on 2003 WECA adopts new name: Wi-‐Fi Alliance 16

2004 view of Wi-‐Fi market 17

2004 view of Wi-‐Fi market •  Rampant growth however… •  Ar.cle in ‘ The Economist’ warns Wi-‐Fi under threat: •  WiMAX in wide area •  WiMedia in home 18

Addi.onal highlights •  1997: FCC authorizes Unlicensed Na.onal Informa.on Infrastructure (U-‐NII) radio band providing 200 MHz more spectrum in 5 GHz band •  2003: FCC adds 255 MHz to 5 GHZ bringing total spectrum to 555 MHz 19

Addi.onal highlights •  1997: FCC authorizes Unlicensed Na.onal Informa.on Infrastructure (U-‐NII) radio band providing 200 MHz more spectrum in 5 GHz band •  2003: FCC adds 255 MHz to 5 GHZ bringing total spectrum to 555 MHz •  2003-‐2009: Task Group n works to drama.cally improve Wi-‐Fi performance, in part via MIMO and Beamforming •  2007: 802.11n dray 2 products cer.ﬁed by the Wi-‐Fi Alliance •  2009: 802.11n speciﬁca.on approved 20

Addi.onal highlights •  1997: FCC authorizes Unlicensed Na.onal Informa.on Infrastructure (U-‐NII) radio band providing 200 MHz more spectrum in 5 GHz band •  2003: FCC adds 255 MHz to 5 GHZ bringing total spectrum to 555 MHz •  2003-‐2009: Task Group n works to drama.cally improve Wi-‐Fi performance, in part via MIMO and Beamforming •  2007: 802.11n dray 2 products cer.ﬁed by the Wi-‐Fi Alliance •  2009: 802.11n speciﬁca.on approved 21

In-‐Stat (Nov 09) •  Worldwide hotspots reach 245,000 venues in 2009 •  Hotspot connects increased in 2009 by 47 percent, bringing total worldwide 1.2 billion connects •  Wi-‐Fi handset shipments grew 50%, 2007 to 2008 •  Wi-‐Fi-‐enabled entertainment device (cameras, gaming devices, and personal media players) shipments projected to increase from 108.8 million in 2009 to 177.3 million in 2013 22

ABI Research (August 2009) •  ABI projects 1 billion Wi-‐Fi chips in 2011 •  Global shipments of Wi-‐Fi-‐enabled cell phones to double between 2009 and 2011 –  144 million in 2009 to 300 million in 2011 •  90% of smart phones Wi-‐Fi capable by 2014 23

Increasing capacity 5 Wi-Fi 4 2 Femtocell Internet 1 Operator Services 3 1.  Add Cellsites ($$$) 2.  Newer radios ($$) 4. Femtocells ($$) 3.  More backhaul ($$$) 5. Wi-Fi ($) 24

Femtocells: too liele, too late •  Primary users of 3G/4G data also have Wi-‐Fi –  Laptops, smart phones •  Corporate IT prefers Wi-‐Fi they control •  Consumers deploying Wi-‐Fi anyway –  For PCs, for gaming, for home media –  Pay extra to help carrier improve their network? •  Femtocell’s only value may be voice coverage 25

What’s next? •  Wireless .pping point –  5 GHz becomes as valuable as 2.4 GHz or 700 MHz –  Spa.al reuse → incredible density increments •  Wi-‐Fi leads the way –  Leveraging Moore’s law and exis.ng 802.11n spec. –  Task Grp ac – Very high throughput <6GHz (2012?)  New biz ops! 26

Spectrum Myth TV Spectrum is “beach front” spectrum 27

Spectrum Myth TV Spectrum is “beach front” spectrum •  Based on legacy technology, not physics! –  Travels farther thru the air – No! –  Thru windows – roughly the same –  Goes thru masonry – yes, this is beeer … 28

Free space path loss Seems to say more , more loss 29

Free space path loss Seems to say more , more loss But this equation encapsulates two effects:   Actual path loss   Receiving antenna aperture (assumed to be ½ wavelength) 30

Free space path loss Seems to say more , more loss But this equation encapsulates two effects:   Actual path loss   Receiving antenna aperture (assumed to be ½ wavelength) 5 GHz photons go just as far as 700 MHz photons ! 31

Refrac.on and reﬂec.ons Shorter wavelength - more reflections, refraction  “MultiPath”  “Ghosts” if a single receiver 32

MIMO: Mul.ple Input Mul.ple Output •  Mul.ple paths improve link reliability and increase spectral eﬃciency (bps/Hz), range & direc.onality 33

Rich Indoor MIMO Mul.path Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope 34

Municipal Mul.path Environment Source: Fanny Mlinarsky, Octoscope 35

Mul.ple channels per chip Like CPU cores … Intel •  2x2 MIMO – 2008 •  4x4 MIMO – 2010-‐11 then •  8 radios, 16 radios?, … Fujitsu how to use silicon? Be$er and be$er beam-‐forming ! AMD 36

Beamforming •  Select among mul.ple predeﬁned antenna elements –  Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-‐Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless) 37

Beamforming •  Select among mul.ple predeﬁned antenna elements –  Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-‐Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless) •  Adap.ve antenna arrays –  Dynamically compute phase and amplitude for each antenna element –  Adapts for desired signal while also reducing interference 38

Beamforming •  Select among mul.ple predeﬁned antenna elements –  Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-‐Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless) •  Adap.ve antenna arrays –  Dynamically compute phase and amplitude for each antenna element –  Adapts for desired signal while also reducing interference 8 antenna elements spread over 3.5 λs, i.e. ~18 cm, or < 7.5” at 5.8 GHz 39

Beamforming •  Select among mul.ple predeﬁned antenna elements –  Widely used with single radios (2G, 3G, Wi-‐Fi – Vivato, Ruckus Wireless) •  Adap.ve antenna arrays –  Dynamically compute phase and amplitude for each antenna element –  Adapts for desired signal while also reducing interference 8 antenna elements spread over 3.5 λs, i.e. ~18 cm, or < 7.5” at 5.8 GHz 40

Beamforming ~2014: >300 Mbps Wi-Fi to ~1 Km at mass market prices ? 4x4 MIMO with 8-12 antenna elements 41

Commercial beamforming Wi-‐Fi beams, before silicon support … •  Vivato (’02-‐’06) –  Technical success, but expensive –  Connect with 11g clients up to 2 km –  Vivato-‐to-‐Vivato up to 18 km 44

Commercial beamforming Wi-‐Fi beams, before silicon support … •  Vivato (’02-‐’06) –  Technical success, but expensive –  Connect with 11g clients up to 2 km –  Vivato-‐to-‐Vivato up to 18 km •  Ruckus Wireless (today)  –  12 elements – selec.vely switched to two channels on 2x2 silicon –  Drama.cally outperforms conven.onal 2x2 systems 45

•  11n wireless networking solu.ons in silicon •  Founded 2006; customers include Netgear •  4x4 MIMO with beamforming 46

TVWS – Beach-‐front Property? •  MIMO antenna element separa.on >= ½ wavelength –  2.1 meters at 70 MHz –  21 cm at 700 MHz •  But only –  2.5 cm for 5.8 GHz Wi-‐Fi Ruckus Wireless Wavion Networks D-Link DAP-2553 47

Wi-‐Fi 3G / 4G 48

Wi-‐Fi 3G / 4G •  Sta.onary clients or •  Supports mobile use pedestrian mo.on at auto speeds 49

Wi-‐Fi 3G / 4G •  Sta.onary clients or •  Supports mobile use pedestrian mo.on at auto speeds •  Data centric (VoIP an •  Voice centric (voice ayerthought) revenues s.ll king) 50

Wi-‐Fi 3G / 4G •  Sta.onary clients or •  Supports mobile use pedestrian mo.on at auto speeds •  Data centric (VoIP an •  Voice centric (voice ayerthought) revenues s.ll king) •  Wide-‐open market, •  4-‐6 vendors, many vendors, many 1 applica.on, market segments, <700 customers many customers 51

Wi-‐Fi markets evolving •  Well established in enterprises and on campus •  Mesh products emerge to ﬁll coverage gaps –  Aruba Networks, BelAir Networks, Bluesocket, Cisco, Clearsite Communica.ons, Fire.de, Locust World, Meraki, Mesh Dynamics, Motorola, Nortel, Open-‐Mesh, Packet Hop, Ruckus Wireless, SkyPilot Networks, Strix and Tropos •  Mesh node as bridge from outdoor to indoor 52

Muni Wi-‐Fi •  Wireless broadband access networks –  Take 2; recovering from early Metro Wi-‐Fi –  Dozens of US ci.es now succeeding •  Ci.es bring real estate, look to save current $ –  Communica.ons for police & other city services •  But strong pressure for “free” in some form –  40% of APs are open (espc. Consumer APs) 53

Varia.ons on Free •  Retail business giveaway –  Coﬀee shops, restaurants, hotels, retail –  Harvard Sq. Business Associa.on 54

Varia.ons on Free •  Retail business giveaway –  Coﬀee shops, restaurants, hotels, retail –  Harvard Sq. Business Associa.on •  Sponsorship – loca.ons, events By kumasawa 55

Varia.ons on Free •  Retail business giveaway –  Coﬀee shops, restaurants, hotels, retail –  Harvard Sq. Business Associa.on •  Sponsorship – loca.ons, events By kumasawa •  Carrier supported –  e.g. Cablevision’s Op.mum Wi-‐Fi 56

More free  Ad supported •  Didn’t work in 2005; working now… –  Costs way down; usage and interest up •  Freerunr in UK (& NL, RS, ZA) –  Splash screens, limited dura.on free periods, … •  JiWire in US – Ad pla[orm for free Wi-‐Fi –  Used by Microsoy Bing na.onwide Wi-‐Fi oﬀer •  Sputnik in US – Ad supported model growing 57

100x mesh performance coming •  Wi-‐Fi mesh performance has been extremely limited –  Mul.-‐path limited link capacity & favored 2.4 GHz –  Single radios with omni antennas mean all links share one 20 MHz channel, so mesh capacity drops ~x2 per node 58

100x mesh performance coming •  Wi-‐Fi mesh performance has been extremely limited –  Mul.-‐path limited link capacity & favored 2.4 GHz –  Single radios with omni antennas mean all links share one 20 MHz channel, so mesh capacity drops ~x2 per node •  Pt-‐to-‐pt links = drama.c increase in mesh capacity –  Direc.onal antennas today; soyware beamforming soon •  Mul.-‐radio mesh nodes –  Separate channels for each link; note: there are eleven 40 MHz channels available at 5 GHz 59

Enterprise design adapted for BB 60

ILEC price umbrella •  Cost of Internet transit @ urban IXPs –  <$4 /Mbps /month (mul.-‐Gbps quan..es) –  <$9 /Mbps /month (<=100 Mbps) •  Elsewhere, even 1 block away, very expensive –  T1 $299, 5Mbps $599, 10 Mbps $1299 /month –  This is $120-‐$200 /Mbps /month  20x-‐50x markup •  Fosters wireless bypass –  WISPs opera.ng 20%-‐50% under ILEC price umbrella 61

Wireless ISPs •  > 2000 WISPs, in fast growing segment –  Most use license-‐ exempt spectrum –  Mix of pre-‐WiMAX, WiMAX and, increasingly, Wi-‐Fi gear 62

Wi-‐Fi for wireless broadband •  WISPs already use license-‐exempt spectrum –  Some.mes with a few licensed microwave links •  11g & 11a, rapidly migra.ng to 11n technology –  Performance advantage is signiﬁcant •  Drama.cally lower cost –  5x or more vs WiMAX or pre-‐WiMAX systems –  Increasing reliability, similar performance 63

Ubiqui. targets Wireless ISPs 64

Ubiqui. targets Wireless ISPs Point-to-point $180-$600 65

Ubiqui. targets Wireless ISPs Point-to-point Point-to-multipoint $180-$600 ~$240 & $88 66

Example Wi-‐Fi Pt-‐2-‐Pt Link Ubiquiti BULLET-M5-HP With 28dbi Grid Antenna 802.11n Purchased through distribution: 67

Community WISP, Inc. 68

•  Wireless broadband Internet access for all of Brevard County •  Served from 4 locations •  900 MHz, 2.4 GHz & 5 GHz, i.e. all license-exempt spectrum •  30/10 Mbps in many areas •  Expanding into Volusia and Seminole counties 69

Summary •  Wi-‐Fi will dominate 3G/4G data oﬄoad –  Triple play operators already bundling “free” Wi-‐Fi –  3G/4G service providers will follow •  Eventually, high speed Wi-‐Fi will be the norm –  3G/4G coverage, merely a fallback 70

Summary •  Wi-‐Fi will dominate 3G/4G data oﬄoad –  Triple play operators already bundling “free” Wi-‐Fi –  3G/4G service providers will follow •  Eventually, high speed Wi-‐Fi will be the norm –  3G/4G coverage, merely a fallback •  Wi-‐Fi fosters resurgence in independent ISPs –  Wireless ISPs oﬀering wireless broadband access 71

Thank You Brough Turner broughturner@gmail.com rbt@ashtonbrooke.com

Credits, References •  Image credits, beyond those noted in-‐line… –  Office building facade: hep://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Beek100 –  Laptop icon: hep://www.flickr.com/photos/ichibod/ –  Microwave oven: hep://www.flickr.com/photos/code_mar.al/ •  Other useful references –  Novarum Inc. measurements: hep://www.novarum.com/publica.ons.php –  NIST Electromagne.c Signal Aeenua.on in Construc.on Materials hep://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build97/PDF/b97123.pdf 73

802.11n in-‐the-‐ﬁeld •  Ken Biba: –  The King is Dead, Long Live the King: 802.11n drama.cally improves Wi-‐ Fi outdoors –  Real world measurements show muni Wi-‐Fi networks outperform WiMAX and cellular •  Tom’s Hardware –  Reviews Ruckus Wireless 11n access point with beamforming, hep://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/beamforming-‐wiﬁ-‐ruckus, 2390.html •  Net, net – it really works! 74

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Wi-Fi Opportunities In A 4G World

by Brough Turner on Jan 22, 2010

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Wi-Fi Opportunities In A 4G World — Presentation Transcript