Wi-Fi is the new 4G

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Brough’s keynote address at the October 2010 4G Wireless Evolution Conference.
In it, he argues:
1. All key 4G technologies are pioneered by Wi-Fi (3-5 year lead!).
2. Wi-Fi will be the dominant solution for mobile data offload.
3. 4G technologies represent a wireless tipping point with the result they will revolutionize backhaul and eventually the first mile (via wireless ISPs).

He closes with two slides on his new wireless ISP, netBlazr.

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Wi-Fi is the new 4G

  1. 1. Wi-­‐Fi:  the  Real  4G!   Brough  Turner   netBlazr   brough@netblazr.com  
  2. 2. Wi-­‐Fi                                            Mobile   •  Local,  products   •  Ubiquitous  service   •  Data  centric   •  Voice  centric   •  Sta@onary  or   •  Mobile  at  auto   pedestrian  speeds   speeds   2  
  3. 3. Wi-­‐Fi                                            Mobile   •  Local,  products   •  Ubiquitous  service   •  Data  centric   •  Voice  centric   •  Sta@onary  or   •  Mobile  at  auto   pedestrian  speeds   speeds   •  Many  vendors,  many   •  4-­‐6  vendors,     market  segments,   ~300  customers,   billions  of  customers   1  applica@on   3  
  4. 4. Wi-­‐Fi   •  Technology  leadership   •  Off-­‐load  solu@on   •  Backhaul  &  fixed  wireless   4  October  2010   4  
  5. 5. Spectrum  history   •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers   –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits   5  
  6. 6. Spectrum  history   •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers   –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits   •  1927-­‐  1934:    Origin  of  FCC,  spectrum  licensing   –  Ensuing  decades  -­‐  almost  all  spectrum  assigned   –  Three  bands  reserved  for  “junk”  uses   6  
  7. 7. Spectrum  history   •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers   –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits   •  1927-­‐  1934:    Origin  of  FCC,  spectrum  licensing   –  Ensuing  decades  -­‐  almost  all  spectrum  assigned   –  Three  bands  reserved  for  “junk”  uses   •  1985:    FCC  authorizes  spread   spectrum  communica@ons  in     the  ISM,  or  “junk”  bands,  i.e.     –  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz,  5.8  GHz   7  
  8. 8. Spectrum  history   •  1920s:    Primi@ve  radio  receivers   –  Needed  to  restrict  who  transmits   •  1927-­‐  1934:    Origin  of  FCC,  spectrum  licensing   –  Ensuing  decades  -­‐  almost  all  spectrum  assigned   –  Three  bands  reserved  for  “junk”  uses   •  1985:    FCC  authorizes  spread   spectrum  communica@ons  in     the  ISM,  or  “junk”  bands,  i.e.     –  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz,  5.8  GHz   8  
  9. 9. Wi-­‐Fi  History   1985   FCC  permits  communica@ons  in  “junk  bands”  at  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz  &  5.8  GHz   IEEE  bodies  iterate;    eventually  publish  first  802.11  spec   1988  -­‐  1997   Three  alternate  solu@ons  for  1  Mbps  opera@on  with  a  2  Mbps  op@on   1999   802.11a  –  54  Mbps  at  5.8  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on   1999   802.11b  –  11  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  DSSS  modula@on   Wireless  Ethernet  Compa@bility  Alliance  (WECA)  formed   1999   –  Focuses  on  interoperability  and  a  cer@fica@on  program   2001   802.11d  –  extends  the  spec  for  other  regulatory  domains  (EU,  Japan,  etc.)   2003   802.11g  –  54  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on   2003   WECA    adopts  new  name:    Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance   9  
  10. 10. Wi-­‐Fi  History   1985   FCC  permits  communica@ons  in  “junk  bands”  at  900  MHz,  2.4  GHz  &  5.8  GHz   IEEE  bodies  iterate;    eventually  publish  first  802.11  spec   1988  -­‐  1997   Three  alternate  solu@ons  for  1  Mbps  opera@on  with  a  2  Mbps  op@on   1999   802.11a  –  54  Mbps  at  5.8  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on   1999   802.11b  –  11  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  DSSS  modula@on   Wireless  Ethernet  Compa@bility  Alliance  (WECA)  formed   1999   –  Focuses  on  interoperability  and  a  cer@fica@on  program   2001   802.11d  –  extends  the  spec  for  other  regulatory  domains  (EU,  Japan,  etc.)   2003   802.11g  –  54  Mbps  at  2.4  GHz  using  OFDM  modula@on   2003   WECA    adopts  new  name:    Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance   10  
  11. 11. Addi@onal  highlights   •  1997:    FCC  authorizes  Unlicensed  Na@onal  Informa@on   Infrastructure  (U-­‐NII)  adding  200  MHz  in  5  GHz  band   •  2003:    FCC  adds  255  MHz  more  @  5  GHZ;  total  now  555  MHz   •  2003-­‐2009:    Task  Group  n  works  to  drama@cally  improve  Wi-­‐Fi     performance,  in  part  via  MIMO  and  Beam  forming   •   2007:    802.11n  drak  2  products        cer@fied  by  the  Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance;     Products  shipping!   •   2009:    802.11n  spec  approved   11  
  12. 12. Addi@onal  highlights   •  1997:    FCC  authorizes  Unlicensed  Na@onal  Informa@on   Infrastructure  (U-­‐NII)  adding  200  MHz  in  5  GHz  band   •  2003:    FCC  adds  255  MHz  more  @  5  GHZ;  total  now  555  MHz   •  2003-­‐2009:    Task  Group  n  works  to  drama@cally  improve  Wi-­‐Fi     performance,  in  part  via  MIMO  and  Beam  forming   •   2007:    802.11n  drak  2  products        cer@fied  by  the  Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance;     Products  shipping!   •   2009:    802.11n  spec  approved   12  
  13. 13. Addi@onal  highlights   •  1997:    FCC  authorizes  Unlicensed  Na@onal  Informa@on   Infrastructure  (U-­‐NII)  adding  200  MHz  in  5  GHz  band   •  2003:    FCC  adds  255  MHz  more  @  5  GHZ;  total  now  555  MHz   •  2003-­‐2009:    Task  Group  n  works  to  drama@cally  improve  Wi-­‐Fi     performance,  in  part  via  MIMO  and  Beam  forming   •   2007:    802.11n  drak  2  products        cer@fied  by  the  Wi-­‐Fi  Alliance;     Products  shipping!   •   2009:    802.11n  spec  approved   13  
  14. 14. 4  October  2010   14  
  15. 15. Wi-­‐Fi                                            Mobile   •  Local,  products   •  Ubiquitous  service   •  Data  centric   •  Voice  centric   •  Sta@onary  or   •  Mobile  at  auto   pedestrian  speeds   speeds   •  Many  vendors,  many   •  4-­‐6  vendors,     market  segments,   ~300  customers,   billions  of  customers   1  applica@on   15  
  16. 16. ITU’s  Vision  for  3G    (late  90s)   Global   Satellite   Suburban   Urban   In-­‐Building   Picocell   Microcell   Macrocell   Basic  Terminal   PDA  Terminal   Audio/Visual  Terminal   16  
  17. 17. “3G”  Services   •  Video  telephony   •  Loca@on-­‐based  services   •  Push-­‐to-­‐Talk    (VoIP  w/o  QoS)   •  Rich  presence  (instant  messaging)   •  Fixed-­‐mobile  convergence  (FMC)   •  IP  Mul@media  Services  (w/  QoS)   –  Video  sharing  (conversa@onal  video  on  IP)   •  Converged  “All  IP”  networks  –  the  Vision   17  
  18. 18. “3G”  Services   •  Video  telephony   Limited  adop+on   •  Loca@on-­‐based  services   Bypassed  !   •  Push-­‐to-­‐Talk    (VoIP  w/o  QoS)   Limited  adop+on   •  Rich  presence  (instant  messaging)   No  trac+on   •  Fixed-­‐mobile  convergence  (FMC)   Limited  adop+on   •  IP  Mul@media  Services  (w/  QoS)   Limited  adop+on   –  Video  sharing  (conversa@onal  video  on  IP)   •  Converged  “All  IP”  networks  –  the  Vision   Too  late  …   18  
  19. 19. The  Internet  is  the  killer  plaqorm     •  Mobile  Internet  access   drives  3G  data  usage   •  Walled  garden   –  too  late  !   19  
  20. 20. iPhone  traffic   20  
  21. 21. US  data  traffic   21  
  22. 22. US  data  traffic   =  3.3x  per  year…   22  
  23. 23. Global  mobile  data  traffic   •  Nearly  tripled  between  2Q2009  and  2Q2010     TB/month   250000   200000   150000   TB/month   100000   50000   0   2Q2009   2Q2010   Source:    Ericsson,  Aug  2010   4  October  2010   23  
  24. 24. US  3G  performance   •  Novarum  Inc.  (1/2010)   –  Measurements  in       36  ci@es  (Anaheim,  …,   Boston,  …,  Philly,  …,   Raleigh,  …,  Tempe)   –  12-­‐2009:    1.5  Mbps  down   •  Doubles:  ~24  months   24  
  25. 25. Increasing  capacity   5 Wi-­‐Fi   4 2 Femtocell   Internet   1 Operator  Services   3 1.  Add  Cellsites  ($$$$)   2.  Newer  radios  ($$$)   4.  Femtocells  ($$)   3.  More  backhaul  ($$$$)   5.    Wi-­‐Fi    ($)   25  
  26. 26. Femtocells:    too  livle,  too  late   •  Primary  users  of  3G/4G  data  also  have  Wi-­‐Fi   –  Laptops,  smart  phones   •  Corporate  IT  prefers  Wi-­‐Fi  they  control   •  Consumers  deploying  Wi-­‐Fi  anyway   –  For  PCs,  for  gaming,  for  home  media   –  Pay  extra  to  help  carrier  improve  their  network?   •  Femtocell’s  do  have  value  for  voice  coverage!   26  
  27. 27. Public  Wi-­‐Fi   •  Retail  business  giveaway   –  Coffee  shops,  restaurants,  hotels,  retail   –  Harvard  Sq.  Business  Associa@on   27  
  28. 28. Public  Wi-­‐Fi   •  Retail  business  giveaway   –  Coffee  shops,  restaurants,  hotels,  retail   –  Harvard  Sq.  Business  Associa@on   •  Sponsorship  –  loca@ons,  events   By  kumasawa   28  
  29. 29. Public  Wi-­‐Fi   •  Retail  business  giveaway   –  Coffee  shops,  restaurants,  hotels,  retail   –  Harvard  Sq.  Business  Associa@on   •  Sponsorship  –  loca@ons,  events   By  kumasawa   •  Carrier  supported   –  e.g.  Cablevision’s     Op@mum  Wi-­‐Fi     29  
  30. 30. Ad  supported  Wi-­‐Fi     •  Didn’t  work  in  2005;  working  now…     –  Costs  way  down;    usage  and  interest  up   •  Freerunr  in  UK      (&  NL,  RS,  ZA)   –  Splash  screens,  limited  free  periods,  …   •  JiWire  in  US  –  Ad  plaqorm  for  free  Wi-­‐Fi   –  Used  by  MS  Bing  na@onwide  Wi-­‐Fi  offer   •  Sputnik  in  US  –  Ad  supported  model   growing   30  
  31. 31. Muni  Wi-­‐Fi,  take  2   •  Wireless  broadband  access  networks   –  Dozens  of  US  ci@es  now  succeeding   •  Ci@es  bring  real  estate,  look  to  save  current  $   –  Communica@ons  for  police  &  other  city  services   •  Strong  pressure  for  “free”  in  some  form   31  
  32. 32. Wi-­‐Fi  will  dominate  off  load   •  LTE  network  for  coverage,   but  most  data  bytes  via  Wi-­‐Fi   •  Operator  take  away:                  Sell  ubiquitous  service                  any  place,  any  +me          while  integra@ng  seamless  Wi-­‐Fi  data  offload   4  October  2010   32  
  33. 33. Backhaul  /  Fixed  wireless   •  Middle  mile   – Cell  sites   – Fixed  wireless  hubs   •   First  mile   −  Homes  and  businesses   4  October  2010   33  
  34. 34. $220  per  Mbps   US  Today   $7  per  Mbps  
  35. 35. How  could  wireless  possibly  help?   •  Limited  capacity   –  .   •  Licensed  spectrum  expensive   –  Only  par@ally  true   •  Unlicensed  unreliable…   –  Not  any  more!   •  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far   –  20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!   4  October  2010   35  
  36. 36. How  could  wireless  possibly  help?   •  Limited  capacity   –  100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …   •  Licensed  spectrum  expensive   –  Only  par@ally  true   •  Unlicensed  unreliable…   –  Not  any  more!   •  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far   –  20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!   4  October  2010   36  
  37. 37. How  could  wireless  possibly  help?   •  Limited  capacity   –  100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …   •  Licensed  spectrum  expensive   –  Only  par@ally  true   •  Unlicensed  unreliable…   –  Not  any  more!   •  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far   –  20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!   4  October  2010   37  
  38. 38. How  could  wireless  possibly  help?   •  Limited  capacity   –  100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …   •  Licensed  spectrum  expensive   –  Only  par@ally  true   •  Unlicensed  unreliable…   –  Not  any  more!   •  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far   –  20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!   4  October  2010   38  
  39. 39. How  could  wireless  possibly  help?   •  Limited  capacity   –  100  Mbps,  300  Mbps,  1  Gbps,  …   •  Licensed  spectrum  expensive   –  Only  par@ally  true   •  Unlicensed  unreliable…   –  Not  any  more!   •  Wi-­‐Fi  doesn’t  go  far   –  20-­‐50  km!    for  <  $500!   4  October  2010   39  
  40. 40. Wireless  @pping  point   •  MIMO  makes  5  GHz  more  useful  than     cellular  or  TV  spectrum   •  Direc@onal  antennas  or  beam  forming  →   Spa@al  reuse  →  incredible  density  increments   40  
  41. 41. Wireless  @pping  point   •  MIMO  makes  5  GHz  more  useful  than     cellular  or  TV  spectrum   •  Direc@onal  antennas  or  beam  forming  →   Spa@al  reuse  →  incredible  density  increments   •  Wi-­‐Fi  leads  the  way   – Moore’s  law  with  exis@ng  802.11n  spec.   – New  specs,  e.g.  802.11ac,    ~  Dec  2012   41  
  42. 42. Beamforming   •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements   –  Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)   42  
  43. 43. Beamforming   •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements   –  Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)   •  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays   –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element   –  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference   8  antenna  elements   spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz   43  
  44. 44. Beamforming   •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements   –  Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)   •  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays   –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element   –  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference   8  antenna  elements   spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz   44  
  45. 45. Beamforming   •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements   –  Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)   •  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays   –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element   –  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference   8  antenna  elements   spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz   45  
  46. 46. Beamforming   •  Select  among  mul@ple  predefined  antenna  elements   –  Widely  used    (2G,  3G,  Wi-­‐Fi  –  Vivato,  Ruckus  Wireless)   •  Adap@ve  antenna  arrays   –  Compute  phase/amplitude  for  each  antenna  element   –  Adapts  for  desired  signal  while  also  reducing  interference   8  antenna  elements   spread  over  3.5  λs,      i.e.  ~18  cm,  or        <  7.5”  at  5.8  GHz   46  
  47. 47. Commercial  beamforming    Wi-­‐Fi  beams,  before  silicon  support  …   •  Vivato  (’02-­‐’06)     –  Technical  success,  but  expensive     –  Connect  with  11g  clients  up  to  2  km   –  Vivato-­‐to-­‐Vivato  up  to  18  km   47  
  48. 48. Commercial  beamforming    Wi-­‐Fi  beams,  before  silicon  support  …   •  Vivato  (’02-­‐’06)     –  Technical  success,  but  expensive     –  Connect  with  11g  clients  up  to  2  km   –  Vivato-­‐to-­‐Vivato  up  to  18  km   •  Ruckus  Wireless  (today)     –  12  elements  –  selec@vely  switched  to     two  channels  on  2x2  silicon   –  Drama@cally  outperforms  conven@onal   2x2  systems   48  
  49. 49. •  11n  wireless  networking  solu@ons  in  silicon   •  Founded  2006;    customers  include  Netgear   •  4x4  MIMO  with  beamforming   49  
  50. 50. Beamforming   ~2014:    >300  Mbps  Wi-­‐Fi  to  ~1  Km        at  mass  market  prices  …   4x4  MIMO   with  8     antenna     elements   50  
  51. 51. Beamforming   ~2014:    >300  Mbps  Wi-­‐Fi  to  ~1  Km        at  mass  market  prices  …   4x4  MIMO   with  8     antenna     elements   51  
  52. 52. Beamforming   ~2014:    >300  Mbps  Wi-­‐Fi  to  ~1  Km        at  mass  market  prices  …   4x4  MIMO   with  8     antenna     elements   52  
  53. 53. TVWS  –  Beach-­‐front  spectrum?   •  Ideal  antenna  element     separa@on  >=  ½  wavelength   –  2.1  meters  at  70  MHz   –  21  cm  at  700  MHz   •  But  only   –  2.5  cm  for  5.8  GHz  Wi-­‐Fi   Ruckus  Wireless   Wavion  Networks   D-­‐Link  DAP-­‐2553   53  
  54. 54. ILEC  price  umbrella   •  >20x  markup  fosters  wireless  bypass   –  Typical  WISPs  opera@ng  20%-­‐50%  under     monopolist’s  price  umbrella   54  
  55. 55. Wireless  ISPs   •  >  2000  WISPs,  in  fast  growing  segment   –  Most  use  license-­‐   exempt  spectrum   –  Mix  of     pre-­‐WiMAX,     WiMAX     and,  increasingly,     Wi-­‐Fi  gear   55  
  56. 56. Wi-­‐Fi  for  wireless  broadband   •  WISPs  already  use  license-­‐exempt   spectrum   •  Rapidly  migra@ng  to  11n  technology   –  Performance  advantage  is  significant   •  Drama@cally  lower  cost   –   5x  or  more  vs  WiMAX  or  LTE  systems   –  Increasing  reliability,  similar  performance   56  
  57. 57. Ubiqui@  targets  Wireless  ISPs   57  
  58. 58. Ubiqui@  targets  Wireless  ISPs   Point-­‐to-­‐point   $130-­‐$600   58  
  59. 59. Ubiqui@  targets  Wireless  ISPs   Point-­‐to-­‐point   Point-­‐to-­‐mul@point   $130-­‐$600   ~$240  &  $68   59  
  60. 60. Example  Wi-­‐Fi  Pt-­‐2-­‐Pt  Link   UbiquiR  BULLET-­‐M5-­‐HP  With  28dbi  Grid  Antenna  802.11n   Purchased  through  distribu@on:   60  
  61. 61. Community  WISP,  Inc.   61  
  62. 62. •   Wireless  broadband  Internet     access  for  Brevard  County  FL   •   Served  from  4  loca@ons   •   900  MHz,  2.4  GHz  &  5  GHz,     i.e.  all  license-­‐exempt  spectrum   •   30/10  Mbps  in  many  areas   •   Expanding  into  Volusia  and     Seminole  coun@es   62  
  63. 63. Radically  different  ISP   •  Focused  radio  links   – 100  Mbps;    50-­‐200  meters  per  hop   •  Freemium  Model   – Customers  build  our  network   – Premium  services  drive  revenue  
  64. 64. Summary   •  4G    Wireless  @pping  point   •  Wi-­‐Fi  deploying  key  “4G”  technologies,  first  !   •  Wi-­‐Fi  will  dominate  3G/4G  data  offload   •  Wi-­‐Fi  fostering  resurgence  in  independent  ISPs   64  
  65. 65. Summary   •  4G    Wireless  @pping  point   •  Wi-­‐Fi  deploying  key  “4G”  technologies,  first  !   •  Wi-­‐Fi  will  dominate  3G/4G  data  offload   •  Wi-­‐Fi  fostering  resurgence  in  independent  ISPs   opportunity:   An  end  run  around  the  duopoly,     the  FCC  and  Congress   65  
  66. 66. Thank  You   Brough  Turner   brough@netblazr.com  
  67. 67. Credits,  References   •  Image  credits,  beyond  those  noted  in-­‐line…   –  Office  building  facade:      hvp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Beek100   –  Laptop  icon:    hvp://www.flickr.com/photos/ichibod/   –  Microwave  oven:    hvp://www.flickr.com/photos/code_mar@al/   •  Other  useful  references   –  Novarum  Inc.  measurements:    hvp://www.novarum.com/publica@ons.php   –  NIST  Electromagne@c  Signal  Avenua@on  in  Construc@on  Materials       hvp://fire.nist.gov/bfrlpubs/build97/PDF/b97123.pdf   67  
  68. 68. 802.11n  in-­‐the-­‐field   •  Ken  Biba:   –  The  King  is  Dead,  Long  Live  the  King:  802.11n  drama@cally   improves  Wi-­‐Fi  outdoors     –  Real  world  measurements  show  muni  Wi-­‐Fi  networks   outperform  WiMAX  and  cellular     •  Tom’s  Hardware   –  Reviews  Ruckus  Wireless  11n  access  point  with  beamforming,   hvp://www.tomshardware.com/reviews/beamforming-­‐wifi-­‐ ruckus,2390.html     •  Net,  net  –  it  really  works!   68  
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