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Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
Spring VON 2003 Keynote
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Spring VON 2003 Keynote

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My keynote address at the 2003 Spring VON conference, presented on April 1, 2003. I pointed to real 100/100 Mbps Internet connectivity (deployed in 1999-2000, in Ulmea Sweden) emphasizing this was …

My keynote address at the 2003 Spring VON conference, presented on April 1, 2003. I pointed to real 100/100 Mbps Internet connectivity (deployed in 1999-2000, in Ulmea Sweden) emphasizing this was only possible by getting control of local fiber away from the incumbent PTT.

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  • 1. The Long and Winding Road Brough Turner Senior VP & CTO
  • 2. VoIP over FTTH Newton Corner Fiber Project 78 homes mixed 1- and 2-family neighborhood 0 90+%participation along deployment route 0 Community organization - volunteers 0 Commercial contracts for all outside work Ethernet over buried multi-mode fiber 0 Fiber, construction and 100 Mbps equipment costs less than $2000 per household 0 130 days from construction start to live service 45 Mbps link to the Internet 0 Monthly service cost: $24 per household April 2003 Slide 2
  • 3. Sorry, April Fool’s Day... but Similar project in Ulmea, Sweden completed in the winter of 1999-2000 0 Buried fiber (and coax and 6 twisted pairs) 0 60 out of 62 single-family homes participating 0 10/100 Mbps electronics 0 66 MHz link to Internet Costs per household 0 one-time: <$2000 0 recurring: $10/month http://mg0703.ersboda.ac/tomas/mattgrand/index.shtml April 2003 Slide 3
  • 4. VoIP Today We’ve won the battle for Mind Share! But... 89% of international traffic is still TDM Most local voice traffic circuit-switched TDM Most installed PBXs are circuit-switched TDM 0 In 2002: 82% of new PBXs were not IP-enabled All mobile voice services are circuit-switched Convergence will be a twenty year process with substantial progress in next few years April 2003 Slide 4
  • 5. Mind Share is Important VoIP Adoption 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 We’re about here 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 April 2003 Slide 5
  • 6. VoIP A Product, Not a Service Remember Federal Express ZapMail? 0 New (1984), fast (2 hour) document delivery service based on Group 4 Fax, but 0 People purchased their own Group 3 Fax machines 0 G3 Fax leveraged the existing telephone network VoIP telephony will become a product, not a service, eventually... 0 Utilizingthe Internet, and evolving Internet directories (like ENUM) 0 Accessing old phones via gateway service means long transition interval... April 2003 Slide 6
  • 7. Boring VoIP IP telephony being treated as an incremental improvement 0 Better cheaper telephone service Internet has been disruptive everywhere else 0 Email 0 WorldWide Web 0 New approach to community, identity & information Why should telephony be any different? April 2003 Slide 7
  • 8. Disruptive VoIP Push-to-Talk Voice Instant Messaging Don’t try to compete with Nextel 0 Focus on teenagers 0 Test it with gamers 0 Combine with ideas on my next slide... Drive device technology to best leverage available service infrastructure 0 insupport of disruptive uses 0 Test clients for PCs, Palm, Blackberry & other WLAN devices, and 2.5G/3G mobile handsets 0 Focus on a device offer, not a service offer April 2003 Slide 8
  • 9. Disruptive VoIP Always-On Workgroup Conferences VoIP microphone always on-line to a word-spotting speech recognizer 0 “Hey Brian are you there?” 0 Recognizing “Brian” causes the spoken phrase to be forwarded to Brian’s handset and an immediate conversation to ensue 0 Half-duplex, and 1 second latency is OK! 0 VoIP can work well today Has the potential to redefine what we mean by telephony... a.k.a. the Star Trek Communicator April 2003 Slide 9
  • 10. Historical Perspective Early British Railroad Development RR construction authorized by Parliament* 0 Miles of track; Capital in millions of pounds sterling Year Miles Capital Year Miles Capital 0 1833 218 5.5 1842 55 5.3 0 1834 131 2.3 1843 90 3.9 0 1835 202 4.8 1844 805 20.5 0 1836 955 22.9 1845 2,896 59.5 0 1837 543 13.5 1846 4,540 132.6 0 1838 49 2.1 1847 1,295 39.5 0 1839 54 6.5 1848 373 15.3 0 1840 0 2.5 1849 17 3.9 0 1841 14 3.4 1850 4.1 70.4 * Andrew Odlyzko, U of Minn., private correspondence April 2003 Slide 10
  • 11. Long History of Techno Bubbles Overinvestment and Crashes 5000 4000 3000 Mileage 2000 1000 0 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 Railways authorized by British Parliament (not necessarily built) < http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/talks/index.html > April 2003 Slide 11
  • 12. 19th Century British Railroads Investor attitudes in 1840 & 1850 were extremely negative, but ... More than 70 years of steady traffic growth 0 depressions had only slight effect on growth rate Cycles of financial investment 0 “Irrational exuberance” to near zero investment 0 Many bankruptcies, but… No serious interruption of service! Over long term, many fortunes were made 0 and some were lost April 2003 Slide 12
  • 13. Internet Backbone Traffic in U.S. Roughly doubles every year (90% in 2002) Consumer getting some Moore’s law benefit TB/month (in Dec) 1000000 100000 10000 1000 100 10 1 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Traffic (low est.) Traffic (high est.) Based on data from A. Odlyzko, U of Minn. Where do we focus to best advance VoIP ? April 2003 Slide 13
  • 14. Access is the Bottleneck 1000-to-1 disconnect ! Voice E-Mail Internet Broadband & other Local Loop Ethernet Modem ERP Public IP LAN or 1.5 Mbps ? Access Services Switches Sales Gateway Finance Video Gigabit Ethernet Enormous Long- 10/100/1000 Mbps Haul Bandwidth Ethernet April 2003 Slide 14
  • 15. Broadband Adoption Rates - Outpacing Cellular Adoption Rates 200 180 Connections (millions) 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 United States Western Europe Asia Pacific Rest of World Source: IDC, January 2002 April 2003 Slide 15
  • 16. Obvious Vested Interests Traditional telco sells voice services 0 email and web browsing represent new revenue, but VoIP threatens voice revenues Cable company makes money on TV 0 email and web browsing represent new revenue 0 VoIP could be a new service (at telco prices) Wireless service providers sell voice mobility 0 lookingfor data services where they can “capture the added value” 0 browsing by the kilobyte, if at all April 2003 Slide 16
  • 17. The Real Problem First Mile Right-of-Way Many long distance right-of-way alternatives 0 just look at all the national and international backbones that have been built Limited space in local rights-of-way 0 part of justification for original telco monopolies was reduced overhead wiring clutter 0 already have water, sewer, electricity, gas, phone & CableTV organizations digging the street… 0 long, and different, regulatory history for each Fiber could replace both phone and cable TV 0 big, big, long and nasty fight ahead... Photo by Dr. William T. Verts, http://www-unix.oit.umass.edu/~verts/things/things.html April 2003 Slide 17
  • 18. What Do I Want? User ownership, or control, of first mile fiber 0 from my house or business to an aggregation center where alternate IP service providers are available How might we get there? CLEC access to first mile right-of-way 0 on equal terms 0 if nothing else, biz & home owners partner with CLECs for local fiber builds and fiber maintenance Municipal provision of first mile fiber 0 fiber only, to aggregation center where competitive carriers are available April 2003 Slide 18
  • 19. Interim Alternatives Ethernet & other Layer 2 services 0 To aggregation center with competitive ISPs Wireless bypass ! 0 WLAN volumes driving prices down performance up 0 Vivato WiFi switch & directional antenna provides 33 Mbps over 4 km outdoors; 50 km pt-to-pt 0 Higher capacity links costly, but available 0 Meshes are robust way to connect many parties back to a few fiber access points 0 Unlicensed spectrum simplifies local user and community activities Image © Telex Communications, Inc. (www.telex.com) April 2003 Slide 19
  • 20. Regulatory Competition The Internet is global Regulation is national, regional and local 0 From the EU regulators in Brussels to local city governments controlling local rights-of-way Threaten politicians: “others are ahead of us” 0 Korea and Japan lead US in broadband per capita 0 Asia and Europe lead US in cell phone services Is it enough? to get fiber to my home??? 0 Time will tell Meanwhile, I’m looking into wireless bypass... April 2003 Slide 20
  • 21. Enormous Opportunity Ahead VoIP Adoption 100 Continuous gains in 90 underlying technology 80 70 6B humans, 2B phones 60 Convergence means 50 We are here 40 replacing today’s phones 30 20 Substantial, long term, 10 0 worldwide growth! 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Significant positive impact on humanity Have Fun - Make Money ! April 2003 Slide 21
  • 22. N M S CO M MU N I C A TI O N S Technology for tomorrow’s networks

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