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Getting Serious about Ending Poverty: Making the Post-2015 Development Agenda Work

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Global Development Institute
Global Development Institute

Professor Thomas Pogge commenced the lecture by highlighting some key facts and figures about global household income distribution. For example: - In 20 years, the richest 5% have gained about as much (3%) as the poorer half had left at the end of this period - Had it been allowed to gain the 2.9% of global household income that was in fact gained by the richest five percent, the poorer half would have nearly doubled its share — sufficient to end severe poverty Professor Pogge went on to explain that by revising the definitions and measurements of undernourishment, through the introduction of an ‘improved’ methodology, targets have become much less ambitious and achievements have been magnified. With this ‘improved methodology’, the Rome Declaration target for the allowable number of undernourished people has risen from 394 to 465.5 million people, while the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 1 figure has risen from 611 to 724 million people. The progress achieved by 2010 (measured against a target of 50% reduction) has also been altered. The Rome Declaration progress has improved from a 17% increase to a 13% reduction in the number of undernourished people, while MDG 1 progress has improved from a 21% reduction to a 36% reduction – now well on track to achieving a 50% reduction by 2015 as a result of cleverly adjusted targets. Professor Pogge concluded by identifying a number of lessons to be learnt from the current Millennium Development Goals: 1. Define precisely in advance the goals and targets the world is committing itself to as well as the methods by which progress toward these targets is to be measured or assessed. 2. The monitoring of progress should be carried out by groups of independent experts (as happens with climate change through the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or IPCC). 3. Move from a detached wish list to specific responsibilities of named competent actors 4. Reform national and supranational institutional arrangements that are now greatly impeding development. He also proposed a series of radical post-2015 institutional reform goals: • Tax on trade-distorting subventions • Tax on greenhouse gas emissions • Tax on arms exports to least developed countries (LDCs) • Alternative Minimum Tax on multinational corporation (MNC) profits wherever they are headquartered • End bank accounts with unknown owners or beneficiaries • Only minimally representative rulers to assume national debt burdens not the citizens • Tax on natural resource purchases from unrepresentative rulers • Option to have new medicines rewarded according to new health impact Funds raised through proposed taxes and fees would be paid into a Human Development Fund (HDF) for poverty eradication. The HDF would also finance a new facility, the Health Impact Fund (HIF), to contribute to the final proposed goal. HIF will offer to reward any new medicine according to its health impact provided it is sold at cost.

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1 The University of Manchester Thomas Pogge Leitner Professor of Philosophy and International Affairs, Yale University Getting Serious about Ending Poverty: Making the Post- 2015 Development Agenda Work
2 Global Household Income Distribution Segments 1988 2008 Change in % Poorest Tenth 0.337 0.251 -25.3% Second Tenth 0.514 0.414 -19.5% Third Tenth 0.668 0.587 -12.0% Fourth Tenth 0.850 0.840 -1.2% Fifth Tenth 1.154 1.244 +7.7% Sixth Tenth 1.689 1.993 +18.0% Seventh Tenth 2.902 3.442 +18.6% Eighth Tenth 6.056 6.340 +4.7% 80-95th Percentile 42.958 39.137 -8.9% Richest 5 Per Cent 42.872 45.751 +6.7%
S Global Household Income Distribution 1988
Global Household Income Distribution 2008
5 Key Facts In just 20 years, the richest five percent of human beings have gained about as much (3%) as the poorer half had left at the end of this period. The ratio of average incomes of the richest five percent and the poorest fifth rose from 202:1 to 275:1 in this 1988-2008 period. Had the poorest 30% held steady, its 2008 share of global household income would have been 21% higher (1.52% instead of 1.25%). Had it been allowed to gain the 2.9% of global household income that was in fact gained by the richest five percent, the poorer half would have nearly doubled its share — sufficient to end severe poverty.
Alternative Global Income Distribution
7 The World Food Summit in Rome, 1996 Promised to halve the number of chronically under- nourished people between 1996 and 2015. This implies an annual decline by 3.58% (50% over 19 years). “We pledge our political will and our common and national commitment to achieving food security for all and to an on-going effort to eradicate hunger in all countries, with an immediate [!] view to reducing the number of undernourished people to half their present level no later than 2015.”
8 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 2015 target
9 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 2015 target -50%
10 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 2015 target 394 -50%
11 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 2015 target 394 -50%
12 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50%
13 UNGA’s Millennium Declaration, 2000 Pledges to halve the proportion of hungry people between 2000 and 2015. This implies an annual decline by 3.35% (40% over 15 years). “to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world’s people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.”
14 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 2010 2015 target
15 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 2010 2015 target
16 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target
17 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target -50%
18 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target 0.0659 -50%
19 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target 7284 0.0659 -50%
20 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
21 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
22 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 6896 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
23 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 6896 0.1341 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
24 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 6896 0.1341 +2% 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
25 The First Millennium Development Goal Pledges to halve the proportion of chronically undernourished people in the population of the developing countries between 1990 and 2015. This implies an annual decline in their number by 1.37% (29% over 25 years). MDG-1: “Target. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people [in the developing regions] who suffer from hunger.” UN: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2012, p. 11; www.un.org/millenniumgoals
26 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 2010 2015 target
27 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 2010 2015 target
28 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target
29 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target -50%
30 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target 0.1013 -50%
31 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target 6028 0.1013 -50%
32 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
33 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 925 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
34 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 925 5660 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
35 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 925 5660 0.1634 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
36 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 910 5660 0.1608 -21% 2015 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
37 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015
38 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m
39 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m
40 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m
41 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%)
42 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%) Rome Declaration 925m: +17%
43 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%) Rome Declaration 925m: +17% Millennium Declaration 925m: +2%
44 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%) Rome Declaration 925m: +17% Millennium Declaration 925m: +2% MDG 1 925m: -21%
45 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1995–1997 788 2000–2002 833 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
46 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 2000–2002 833 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
47 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
48 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
49 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
50 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 867 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
51 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 867 2009 1023 867 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
52 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 867 2009 1023 867 2010 925 868 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
53 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 394 UNGA Millennium Declaration 480 MDG 1 611 Progress Achieved by 2010 (target +50%) Old Methodology Rome Declaration +17% UNGA Millennium Declaration +2% MDG 1 -21%
54 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 394 465.5 UNGA Millennium Declaration 480 531 MDG 1 611 724 Progress Achieved by 2010 (target +50%) Old Methodology Improved Methodology Rome Declaration +17% UNGA Millennium Declaration +2% MDG 1 -21%
55 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 394 465.5 UNGA Millennium Declaration 480 531 MDG 1 611 724 Progress Achieved by 2010 (target +50%) Old Methodology Improved Methodology Rome Declaration +17% -13% UNGA Millennium Declaration +2% -14% MDG 1 -21% -36%
57 The FAO’s New Methodology (2012) A person counts as undernourished/hungry only if her/his (a) “food energy availability [no other nutrient deficiencies count] (b) is inadequate to cover even minimum needs for a sedentary lifestyle” (c) for “over a year” FAO: SOFI 2012, Annex 2, p. 50.
58 Lesson 1 Define precisely in advance the goals and targets the world is committing itself to as well as the methods by which progress toward these targets is to be measured or assessed. Rule out midstream revisions with hindsight of definitions, targets, methods.
59 Lesson 2 The monitoring of progress should be left to groups of independent experts, not to international agencies (such as the FAO, the World Bank or the UNDP) which are politically exposed and also tasked with achieving progress.
60 Lesson 3 Move from a detached wish list to specific responsibilities of named competent actors
61 Lesson 4 Development Assistance (public and private) is clearly insufficient to compensate for the powerful centrifugal tendencies of the world economy. We must mainstream the concern for the poor beyond development assistance! This means: reform national and supranational institutional arrangements that are now greatly impeding development.
62 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Protectionist trade barriers distort trade and diminish trading opportunities for poor populations. To help offset their effects, affluent countries providing subsidies or export credits commit to paying a share of the value of such subventions into a Human Development Fund. This share is 2% in 2016, rising to 20% in 2025. YIELD ca. $6 − $60 billion per annum.
63 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Pollution and climate change impose massive costs on current and future poor populations. To help offset these effects, all countries pay a fee to the Human Development Fund insofar as their per capita emissions exceed 4 metric tons per person per year. This fee is $0.50 per excess metric ton in 2016, rising to $5 in 2025. YIELD ca. $7 − $70 billion per annum.
64 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Arms exports into the developing world fuel wars, civil wars and repression. To help offset these effects, affluent arms exporting countries commit to paying a share of the value of such exports into the Human Development Fund. This share is 5% in 2016, rising to 50% in 2025. YIELD ca. $1.4 − $14 billion per annum.
65 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Firm-internal trade enables multinational corporations to realize their profits in jurisdictions where tax rates are very low or zero. To help address the effects of lost corporate tax revenues on poor populations, multinational corporations will pay to the Human Development Fund an alternative minimum tax (AMT) equal to the amount by which all national taxes they pay fall short of a minimum percentage of their worldwide profits. This minimum percentage is 5.5% in 2016, rising to 10% in 2025. Countries commit to cooperative enforcement of this AMT against firms with operations in their jurisdiction.
66 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Some jurisdictions facilitate the maintenance of secret bank accounts whose owners and beneficiaries remain anonymous. Because such accounts facilitate tax abuse, embezzlement, corruption, drug trading, terrorism and human trafficking, governments commit to ending the practice as soon as reasonably possible by imposing coordinated sanctions on the relevant banks and countries.
67 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals The populations of some developing countries are burdened by large debts accumulated by their rulers for purposes that were not approved by nor beneficial to the population. Any future such loan will be recognized as constituting a genuine obligation of the country only if it was ratified in real time by a Southern Debt Expert Committee as being acceptable to or serving the interest of the population. Lenders and their home states commit not to exert pressure on countries to service debts that earlier governments incurred without approval from the SDEC.
68 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals The populations of some developing countries suffer massive natural resource outflows that are not approved by or beneficial to the population. Any future such exports will be vetted by a Southern Resource Export Expert Committee (SREEC) to determine that the export is acceptable to or serves the interest of the population. When the SREEC finds that neither condition is met, the buyer must pay 20% of the purchase price to the Human Development Fund.
69 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals To stimulate pharmaceutical innovation against the diseases of the poor and to improve access to advanced medicines, the Human Development Fund will finance a new facility, the Health Impact Fund, which will offer to reward any new medicine according to its health impact provided it is sold at cost. The HIF will be funded at initially $6 billion per annum.
70 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Tax on trade-distorting subventions for poverty eradication Tax on greenhouse gas emissions for poverty eradication Tax on arms exports to LDCs for poverty eradication Alternative Minimum Tax on MNC profits for poverty eradication End accounts with unknown owners or beneficiaries Only minimally representative rulers to assume national debt burdens Tax on natural resource purchases from unrepresentative rulers Option to have new medicines rewarded according to health impact.

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Getting Serious about Ending Poverty: Making the Post-2015 Development Agenda Work

  • 1. 1 The University of Manchester Thomas Pogge Leitner Professor of Philosophy and International Affairs, Yale University Getting Serious about Ending Poverty: Making the Post- 2015 Development Agenda Work
  • 2. 2 Global Household Income Distribution Segments 1988 2008 Change in % Poorest Tenth 0.337 0.251 -25.3% Second Tenth 0.514 0.414 -19.5% Third Tenth 0.668 0.587 -12.0% Fourth Tenth 0.850 0.840 -1.2% Fifth Tenth 1.154 1.244 +7.7% Sixth Tenth 1.689 1.993 +18.0% Seventh Tenth 2.902 3.442 +18.6% Eighth Tenth 6.056 6.340 +4.7% 80-95th Percentile 42.958 39.137 -8.9% Richest 5 Per Cent 42.872 45.751 +6.7%
  • 3. S Global Household Income Distribution 1988
  • 4. Global Household Income Distribution 2008
  • 5. 5 Key Facts In just 20 years, the richest five percent of human beings have gained about as much (3%) as the poorer half had left at the end of this period. The ratio of average incomes of the richest five percent and the poorest fifth rose from 202:1 to 275:1 in this 1988-2008 period. Had the poorest 30% held steady, its 2008 share of global household income would have been 21% higher (1.52% instead of 1.25%). Had it been allowed to gain the 2.9% of global household income that was in fact gained by the richest five percent, the poorer half would have nearly doubled its share — sufficient to end severe poverty.
  • 7. 7 The World Food Summit in Rome, 1996 Promised to halve the number of chronically under- nourished people between 1996 and 2015. This implies an annual decline by 3.58% (50% over 19 years). “We pledge our political will and our common and national commitment to achieving food security for all and to an on-going effort to eradicate hunger in all countries, with an immediate [!] view to reducing the number of undernourished people to half their present level no later than 2015.”
  • 8. 8 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 2015 target
  • 9. 9 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 2015 target -50%
  • 10. 10 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 2015 target 394 -50%
  • 11. 11 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 2015 target 394 -50%
  • 12. 12 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50%
  • 13. 13 UNGA’s Millennium Declaration, 2000 Pledges to halve the proportion of hungry people between 2000 and 2015. This implies an annual decline by 3.35% (40% over 15 years). “to halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world’s people whose income is less than one dollar a day and the proportion of people who suffer from hunger.”
  • 14. 14 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 2010 2015 target
  • 15. 15 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 2010 2015 target
  • 16. 16 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target
  • 17. 17 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target -50%
  • 18. 18 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target 0.0659 -50%
  • 19. 19 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target 7284 0.0659 -50%
  • 20. 20 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
  • 21. 21 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
  • 22. 22 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 6896 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
  • 23. 23 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 6896 0.1341 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
  • 24. 24 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% Millennium Declaration Number of Undernourished in Millions World Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 2000 833 6321 0.1318 2010 925 6896 0.1341 +2% 2015 target 480 7284 0.0659 -50%
  • 25. 25 The First Millennium Development Goal Pledges to halve the proportion of chronically undernourished people in the population of the developing countries between 1990 and 2015. This implies an annual decline in their number by 1.37% (29% over 25 years). MDG-1: “Target. Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people [in the developing regions] who suffer from hunger.” UN: The Millennium Development Goals Report 2012, p. 11; www.un.org/millenniumgoals
  • 26. 26 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 2010 2015 target
  • 27. 27 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 2010 2015 target
  • 28. 28 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target
  • 29. 29 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target -50%
  • 30. 30 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target 0.1013 -50%
  • 31. 31 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target 6028 0.1013 -50%
  • 32. 32 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
  • 33. 33 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 925 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
  • 34. 34 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 925 5660 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
  • 35. 35 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 925 5660 0.1634 2015 target 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
  • 36. 36 Rome Declaration on World Food Security Number of Chronically Undernourished in Millions Progress against Chronic Undernutrition 1996 788 2010 925 +17% 2015 target 394 -50% MDG1 Number of DC Undernourished in Millions DC Population in Millions Proportion Chronically Undernourished Progress against DC Chronic Undernutrition 1990 843 4162 0.2026 2010 910 5660 0.1608 -21% 2015 611 6028 0.1013 -50%
  • 37. 37 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015
  • 38. 38 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m
  • 39. 39 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m
  • 40. 40 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m
  • 41. 41 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%)
  • 42. 42 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%) Rome Declaration 925m: +17%
  • 43. 43 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%) Rome Declaration 925m: +17% Millennium Declaration 925m: +2%
  • 44. 44 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 1996 788m394m Millennium Declaration 2000 833m480m MDG 1 1990 843m611m Progress Achieved by 2010 (target is -50%) Rome Declaration 925m: +17% Millennium Declaration 925m: +2% MDG 1 925m: -21%
  • 45. 45 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1995–1997 788 2000–2002 833 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 46. 46 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 2000–2002 833 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 47. 47 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 48. 48 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 49. 49 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 50. 50 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 867 2009 1023 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 51. 51 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 867 2009 1023 867 2010 925 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 52. 52 Year Undernourished in Millions (2011) … with “improved methodology” (2012) 1969–1971 878 1979–1981 853 1990–1992 843 1000 1995–1997 788 931 2000–2002 833 922 2005–2007 848 884 2008 963 867 2009 1023 867 2010 925 868 UN Food and Agriculture Organization (www.fao.org)
  • 53. 53 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 394 UNGA Millennium Declaration 480 MDG 1 611 Progress Achieved by 2010 (target +50%) Old Methodology Rome Declaration +17% UNGA Millennium Declaration +2% MDG 1 -21%
  • 54. 54 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 394 465.5 UNGA Millennium Declaration 480 531 MDG 1 611 724 Progress Achieved by 2010 (target +50%) Old Methodology Improved Methodology Rome Declaration +17% UNGA Millennium Declaration +2% MDG 1 -21%
  • 55. 55 Allowable Number of Undernourished 2015 Rome Declaration 394 465.5 UNGA Millennium Declaration 480 531 MDG 1 611 724 Progress Achieved by 2010 (target +50%) Old Methodology Improved Methodology Rome Declaration +17% -13% UNGA Millennium Declaration +2% -14% MDG 1 -21% -36%
  • 56.
  • 57. 57 The FAO’s New Methodology (2012) A person counts as undernourished/hungry only if her/his (a) “food energy availability [no other nutrient deficiencies count] (b) is inadequate to cover even minimum needs for a sedentary lifestyle” (c) for “over a year” FAO: SOFI 2012, Annex 2, p. 50.
  • 58. 58 Lesson 1 Define precisely in advance the goals and targets the world is committing itself to as well as the methods by which progress toward these targets is to be measured or assessed. Rule out midstream revisions with hindsight of definitions, targets, methods.
  • 59. 59 Lesson 2 The monitoring of progress should be left to groups of independent experts, not to international agencies (such as the FAO, the World Bank or the UNDP) which are politically exposed and also tasked with achieving progress.
  • 60. 60 Lesson 3 Move from a detached wish list to specific responsibilities of named competent actors
  • 61. 61 Lesson 4 Development Assistance (public and private) is clearly insufficient to compensate for the powerful centrifugal tendencies of the world economy. We must mainstream the concern for the poor beyond development assistance! This means: reform national and supranational institutional arrangements that are now greatly impeding development.
  • 62. 62 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Protectionist trade barriers distort trade and diminish trading opportunities for poor populations. To help offset their effects, affluent countries providing subsidies or export credits commit to paying a share of the value of such subventions into a Human Development Fund. This share is 2% in 2016, rising to 20% in 2025. YIELD ca. $6 − $60 billion per annum.
  • 63. 63 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Pollution and climate change impose massive costs on current and future poor populations. To help offset these effects, all countries pay a fee to the Human Development Fund insofar as their per capita emissions exceed 4 metric tons per person per year. This fee is $0.50 per excess metric ton in 2016, rising to $5 in 2025. YIELD ca. $7 − $70 billion per annum.
  • 64. 64 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Arms exports into the developing world fuel wars, civil wars and repression. To help offset these effects, affluent arms exporting countries commit to paying a share of the value of such exports into the Human Development Fund. This share is 5% in 2016, rising to 50% in 2025. YIELD ca. $1.4 − $14 billion per annum.
  • 65. 65 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Firm-internal trade enables multinational corporations to realize their profits in jurisdictions where tax rates are very low or zero. To help address the effects of lost corporate tax revenues on poor populations, multinational corporations will pay to the Human Development Fund an alternative minimum tax (AMT) equal to the amount by which all national taxes they pay fall short of a minimum percentage of their worldwide profits. This minimum percentage is 5.5% in 2016, rising to 10% in 2025. Countries commit to cooperative enforcement of this AMT against firms with operations in their jurisdiction.
  • 66. 66 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Some jurisdictions facilitate the maintenance of secret bank accounts whose owners and beneficiaries remain anonymous. Because such accounts facilitate tax abuse, embezzlement, corruption, drug trading, terrorism and human trafficking, governments commit to ending the practice as soon as reasonably possible by imposing coordinated sanctions on the relevant banks and countries.
  • 67. 67 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals The populations of some developing countries are burdened by large debts accumulated by their rulers for purposes that were not approved by nor beneficial to the population. Any future such loan will be recognized as constituting a genuine obligation of the country only if it was ratified in real time by a Southern Debt Expert Committee as being acceptable to or serving the interest of the population. Lenders and their home states commit not to exert pressure on countries to service debts that earlier governments incurred without approval from the SDEC.
  • 68. 68 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals The populations of some developing countries suffer massive natural resource outflows that are not approved by or beneficial to the population. Any future such exports will be vetted by a Southern Resource Export Expert Committee (SREEC) to determine that the export is acceptable to or serves the interest of the population. When the SREEC finds that neither condition is met, the buyer must pay 20% of the purchase price to the Human Development Fund.
  • 69. 69 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals To stimulate pharmaceutical innovation against the diseases of the poor and to improve access to advanced medicines, the Human Development Fund will finance a new facility, the Health Impact Fund, which will offer to reward any new medicine according to its health impact provided it is sold at cost. The HIF will be funded at initially $6 billion per annum.
  • 70. 70 Post-2015 Institutional Reform Goals Tax on trade-distorting subventions for poverty eradication Tax on greenhouse gas emissions for poverty eradication Tax on arms exports to LDCs for poverty eradication Alternative Minimum Tax on MNC profits for poverty eradication End accounts with unknown owners or beneficiaries Only minimally representative rulers to assume national debt burdens Tax on natural resource purchases from unrepresentative rulers Option to have new medicines rewarded according to health impact.