The Limits to FreeConomics Alan Patrick Web 2.0 Expo Berlin
Today  Discussion <ul><li>The Digital Media Value Chain and Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Limits to FreeConomics </li></ul><ul...
Today  What is true – Metcalfe’s / Reed’s Law Aggregation Distribution Creation Customer Environment Archive Material Data...
Today  What is true – Moore’s Law / Learning Curves Aggregation Distribution Creation Customer Environment Creation Costs ...
Today  What is not true: Lower cost = Free !  Volume of Business P f C f Time <ul><li>At First…… </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of...
Today  Free fails due to transaction costs Volume of Business Time - Every new node has transaction costs, and they also f...
Today  The Hope…… Seedcamp 2008 Business Models via Wordle.net (Courtesy Guardian)
Today  The Reality.… Total Online Ad Spend 2009 $50bn Google 27% Next 3 ~ 30% Next 30 ~ 30% Long Tail <ul><li>Post It Note...
Today  Paddle, sir ? Credit: Funnypix
Today  The game theory of “Free” Price Demand P £ D £
Today  The game theory of “Free” Zero  Price Infinite  Demand P £ P f D £ D f
Today  But if everyone else dives to the bottom too ? Thanks to http://threeriversfishing.blogspot.com/2007/05/everybodys-...
Today  The liferaft game Price Demand P £ P f D £ D f Your Increased Share Everyone else’s little increased shares
Today  Spending a fortune for users who pay nothing Zero Price Finite Demand P £ P f D £ D f Your spend to keep Your Share...
Today  Deja View media.ebaumsworld.com/.../ShitCreek.png
Today  The 4 FreeConomic Myths Aggregation Distribution Creation Customer Environment UnmeteredHosting & Distribution  Ope...
Aggregator Today  A bit of theory – standard supply chain Buyer Goods Pay Creation Goods Pay
Aggregator Today  A two sided market  Buyer Goods Pay Supplier Goods Pay Pay
Aggregator Today  Free Content Forever – a UGC market End User Goods Content Creator Goods Fund No Pay
Today  “ Digital Sharecropping” ?
Aggregator Today  A multi sided market Buyer Goods Supplier Goods Fund Advertise Pay No Pay
Today  An example Video Video Pay Ads Create
Today  An example - Act 2 Video Video Pay 4 % Sue Sue Goods
Aggregator Today  “ Offset” Economics User Goods Supplier Goods Fund? ? Pay No Pay
T&C TLC  When you post User Content to the Site, you authorize and direct us to make such copies thereof as we deem necess...
Today  What is your Net Present Value? Cumulative Income Money Time NPV of Cumulative Income
Data may be free, but its everywhere in chains
Today  Those who pay the pipers choose the tune
Today  Bandwidth too cheap to meter? Volumes Payment  £  >> 0 Capacity 1 D £ D free Time Demand Capacity 2
Today  Or The End for Aggregators on a Cheap Ride? All utilities become metered at some point, typically when capital repl...
Today  The User Shall Not Pay ? Cost of Media Production favours Cr*p in Free market Poor Quality drives out Good Quality ...
Today  Gamechange ?
Today  Companies under risk (1) – acquisition costs Many Players,  Sticky Unique, Sticky (The Sweet Spot) Many Players, No...
Today  Companies under risk (2) – distribution costs Video Text Video Social Net Social Nets Complexity Bandwidth & Hostin...
Today  Companies under risk (3) – no added value Entertain Dead Sheep What you really, really want Enterprise Productivity...
Today  FTW?
Today  Safe Harbour?
Today  “ Near Freeconomic” models (1) Razr & Blade
Today  “ Near Freeconomic” models (2) - Freemium
Today  Pay per Poke
Today  Make it easy to advertise…. ABC Today Don’t Worry, Be Happy TV Lessons Predictability CPM / CPC Quality Content Goo...
Today  … .pay to have Ads removed ? A recent IBM study found that the TiVo generation is officially online, with 11% of re...
[email_address] If you liked this, read our blog, Broadstuff www.broadstuff.com If you hated it, read the blog anyway – we...
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Broadsight - Web 2.0 Expo Presentation

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The Limits to FreeConomics

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Broadsight - Web 2.0 Expo Presentation

  1. 1. The Limits to FreeConomics Alan Patrick Web 2.0 Expo Berlin
  2. 2. Today Discussion <ul><li>The Digital Media Value Chain and Web 2.0 </li></ul><ul><li>Limits to FreeConomics </li></ul><ul><li>Post Crunch Business Models </li></ul>
  3. 3. Today What is true – Metcalfe’s / Reed’s Law Aggregation Distribution Creation Customer Environment Archive Material Data Availability Bandwidth People
  4. 4. Today What is true – Moore’s Law / Learning Curves Aggregation Distribution Creation Customer Environment Creation Costs Archive Material Data Availability Bandwidth People Search & Aggregation Cost Hosting & Distribution Cost Equipment Costs
  5. 5. Today What is not true: Lower cost = Free ! Volume of Business P f C f Time <ul><li>At First…… </li></ul><ul><li>Cost of Start 10x Lower </li></ul><ul><li>Transaction Costs are non-zero </li></ul><ul><li>- Losses are affordable via capital funding </li></ul>P 0
  6. 6. Today Free fails due to transaction costs Volume of Business Time - Every new node has transaction costs, and they also follow Metcalfe’s law - Transaction Cost losses are eventually unaffordable via capital funding - Requires income..…usually fast FAIL! P f P 0
  7. 7. Today The Hope…… Seedcamp 2008 Business Models via Wordle.net (Courtesy Guardian)
  8. 8. Today The Reality.… Total Online Ad Spend 2009 $50bn Google 27% Next 3 ~ 30% Next 30 ~ 30% Long Tail <ul><li>Post It Note Analysis: </li></ul><ul><li>If everyone wants to be a $100m company… </li></ul><ul><li>… .and there is about $ 10bn tops to share easily…. </li></ul><ul><li>… it means, on average, there is enough for c 100 companies… </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><ul><li>..Globally ! </li></ul></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Chances are, it won’t be you </li></ul>eMarketer, Jefferies & Co, Broadsight Analysis 2009 2008 2009
  9. 9. Today Paddle, sir ? Credit: Funnypix
  10. 10. Today The game theory of “Free” Price Demand P £ D £
  11. 11. Today The game theory of “Free” Zero Price Infinite Demand P £ P f D £ D f
  12. 12. Today But if everyone else dives to the bottom too ? Thanks to http://threeriversfishing.blogspot.com/2007/05/everybodys-doing-it.html
  13. 13. Today The liferaft game Price Demand P £ P f D £ D f Your Increased Share Everyone else’s little increased shares
  14. 14. Today Spending a fortune for users who pay nothing Zero Price Finite Demand P £ P f D £ D f Your spend to keep Your Share Everyone else’s spend to keep Their Shares
  15. 15. Today Deja View media.ebaumsworld.com/.../ShitCreek.png
  16. 16. Today The 4 FreeConomic Myths Aggregation Distribution Creation Customer Environment UnmeteredHosting & Distribution Open, Free Services SustainableFree content Others will give you stuff for free - forever
  17. 17. Aggregator Today A bit of theory – standard supply chain Buyer Goods Pay Creation Goods Pay
  18. 18. Aggregator Today A two sided market Buyer Goods Pay Supplier Goods Pay Pay
  19. 19. Aggregator Today Free Content Forever – a UGC market End User Goods Content Creator Goods Fund No Pay
  20. 20. Today “ Digital Sharecropping” ?
  21. 21. Aggregator Today A multi sided market Buyer Goods Supplier Goods Fund Advertise Pay No Pay
  22. 22. Today An example Video Video Pay Ads Create
  23. 23. Today An example - Act 2 Video Video Pay 4 % Sue Sue Goods
  24. 24. Aggregator Today “ Offset” Economics User Goods Supplier Goods Fund? ? Pay No Pay
  25. 25. T&C TLC When you post User Content to the Site, you authorize and direct us to make such copies thereof as we deem necessary in order to facilitate the posting and storage of the User Content on the Site. By posting User Content to any part of the Site, you automatically grant, and you represent and warrant that you have the right to grant, to the Company an irrevocable, perpetual, non-exclusive, transferable, fully paid, worldwide license (with the right to sublicense) to use, copy, publicly perform, publicly display, reformat, translate, excerpt (in whole or in part) and distribute such User Content for any purpose on or in connection with the Site or the promotion thereof, to prepare derivative works of, or incorporate into other works, such User Content, and to grant and authorize sublicenses of the foregoing.
  26. 26. Today What is your Net Present Value? Cumulative Income Money Time NPV of Cumulative Income
  27. 27. Data may be free, but its everywhere in chains
  28. 28. Today Those who pay the pipers choose the tune
  29. 29. Today Bandwidth too cheap to meter? Volumes Payment £ >> 0 Capacity 1 D £ D free Time Demand Capacity 2
  30. 30. Today Or The End for Aggregators on a Cheap Ride? All utilities become metered at some point, typically when capital replacement costs become an issue
  31. 31. Today The User Shall Not Pay ? Cost of Media Production favours Cr*p in Free market Poor Quality drives out Good Quality from Market Quality customers - then advertisers - exit market 500 Channelz… … .an nuffinz on Cr*p Quality
  32. 32. Today Gamechange ?
  33. 33. Today Companies under risk (1) – acquisition costs Many Players, Sticky Unique, Sticky (The Sweet Spot) Many Players, Not Compelling Unique, Not Compelling Churn / Lifecycle of customers Competition for customers Marketing Cost Community Retention Cost
  34. 34. Today Companies under risk (2) – distribution costs Video Text Video Social Net Social Nets Complexity Bandwidth & Hosting Transport Costs Community Care cost
  35. 35. Today Companies under risk (3) – no added value Entertain Dead Sheep What you really, really want Enterprise Productivity Quality Quality Costs Reliability Costs
  36. 36. Today FTW?
  37. 37. Today Safe Harbour?
  38. 38. Today “ Near Freeconomic” models (1) Razr & Blade
  39. 39. Today “ Near Freeconomic” models (2) - Freemium
  40. 40. Today Pay per Poke
  41. 41. Today Make it easy to advertise…. ABC Today Don’t Worry, Be Happy TV Lessons Predictability CPM / CPC Quality Content Good Metrics
  42. 42. Today … .pay to have Ads removed ? A recent IBM study found that the TiVo generation is officially online, with 11% of respondents happy to pay ' a little' to remove all advertising from videos. Consider the numbers: Google-owned YouTube pulls in something like 50m unique users a month; let's assume it can charge 'a little', a couple of dollars a month maybe - let's round it up to $24.99 a year for a 'premium user' service. Now let's assume that 11% of users sign up. That's a revenue stream worth $137m annually... Source: eMarketer (http://www.e-consultancy.com/news-blog/364572/one-in-10-will-pay-to-remove-youtube-ads.html)
  43. 43. [email_address] If you liked this, read our blog, Broadstuff www.broadstuff.com If you hated it, read the blog anyway – we likes the traffic 

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