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Quantifying and Forecasting Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management - Dr. Jose A. Briones

by Working at SpyroTek Performance Solutions on Nov 05, 2010

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Product innovation has been described as the way out of today’s difficult business environment. The rate of success of development projects, in particular disruptive innovation projects remains too ...

Product innovation has been described as the way out of today’s difficult business environment. The rate of success of development projects, in particular disruptive innovation projects remains too low.

We believe that a reason for the low success rate is the erroneous application of analysis methods designed for incremental innovation like NPV and DCF to projects with high levels of uncertainty

In this presentation we will discuss the use of @RISK and Probabilistic Decision Analysis in the management of innovation projects with high levels of uncertainty. The launch of the iPad is used as a case study

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  • Brioneja Jose Briones at SpyroTek Performance Solutions Larry, Thanks for your comments.
    Regarding slide 7, Time is X axis, Resources is Y axis. Center = 0 for both. They both grow from the center. It is just a visual way to indicate that time and resources allocated should be low for level 1 projects and grow as more information is obtained and uncertainty is reduced.
    This presentation focuses on the financial analysis part. A separate presentation deals with describing the spiral method in more detail.
    http://www.slideshare.net/Brioneja/brioneja-beyond-stagegate-a-new-approach-for-innovation
    That presentation also describes the conditions under which Probabilistic Decision Analysis is the optimal approach and when conventional approaches are more appropriate. The key is not to consider one approach better than the other, but rather to see that they complement each other and what is important is to understand when to use each one.
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  • lmckeogh Larry McKeogh Should have been more specific in earlier comment it was regarding slide 7 only. The rest of the presentation is going to cause me to go back and reevaluate my own financial analysis modeling. 3 years ago
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  • lmckeogh Larry McKeogh Initially viewed the X-axis of time as a misnomer. Time would have to be a included in the spiral obviously so the spiral graph must be some squared or quadratic function. To see this would be helpful since it appears as if there is some negative time aspect at work here. More appropriately time should be part of a Z-axis or an absolute value. 3 years ago
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Quantifying and Forecasting Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management - Dr. Jose A. Briones Quantifying and Forecasting Uncertainty in Innovation Project Management - Dr. Jose A. Briones Presentation Transcript