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CNW US retail automotive-summary-Sept-2012

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    CNW US retail automotive-summary-Sept-2012 CNW US retail automotive-summary-Sept-2012 Presentation Transcript

    • 1.74%62.5%Fleets Bolstering New Car Sales; Fishy? Jitters Index-1.2%*Reported Sales Aug 12 % of RS* Aug 11 % of RS* % ChangeReported 1,285,292 1,072,387 19.85%Delivered 1,186,428 92.31% 1,066,241 99.43% 11.27%Fleet/Bus Orders 98,864 7.69% 6,146 0.57% 1508.59%Act. 31 Days Aug. 1,123,691 87.43% 1,039,427 96.93% 8.11%Sept. 1-2 62,737 4.88% 26,814 2.50% 133.97%Fleet/Bus Orders 98,864 7.69% 6,146 0.57% 1508.59%Avg. 12 Mo. Cancel 18.63% 12.82% 45.32%Fulfilled Orders 80,446 6.78% 5,358 0.50% 1401.39%Total Aug Sales 1,204,137 93.69% 1,044,785 97.43% 15.25%Before looking atSeptember sales projections,here’s an interesting breakoutof August sales.The industry reported1.285 million sales, up 19.85percent vs. a year ago.But on furtherinvestigation, the number offleet orders counted as saleswere significantly higher thisyear compared to last.Of this year’s sales report,7.7 percent were fleet andbusiness orders which arebooked as “sales” but are scheduled for delivery later in the year. This compares with 0.57 percent ayear ago.In and of itself, wouldn’t be a concern and could be attributed to an improving economic outlook.But it skews the industry into looking significantly stronger than it actually is. Why? Many of those orders will be cancelled prior to delivery.In August of last year, for example, nearly13 percent were cancelled. This year, the figure is running closer to 19 percent. So, to be honest,of the 98,800 fleet-business orders reported as sales in August, an estimated 80,450 will actually be delivered (sold).Secondarily, in the August data, sales attributed to August that were actually written in the first two days of September accounted fornearly 5 percent of total sales compared to 2.5 percent a year ago.So what were the actual sales in August when adjusted for September pull-forward and fleet-business orders that will be fulfilled? Up asolid 15.25 percent to 1.2 million; but not nearly as impressive as “20” percent.And where did those extra orders come from? Interesting in an election year that state and federal governments gave a solid boost tothe auto industry by increasing orders by 80 percent vs. a year ago; a 30-fold increase vs. July. (See Page 7 for details.)09.21.12
    • 12.93% 13.98%11.9%Page 2… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Closing RatioClosing Ratio37.02%September Outlook: Could Hit 14.2 Million Delivery Rate; Year on Track: 14.5 MillionWith the first 20-days of September behind us, the rest of the month could well put the auto industry at a 14.2 million delivery rateand the year at 14.5 million units. Reported sales for the month should be up about 13 percent with deliveries up 11.7 percent.Same store sales were just about 13 percent higher in the first 20 days vs. year ago with closing ratios swelling to 37 percent offloor traffic. The last figure is well ahead of August’s 31 percent. (Doc. 832.)While floor traffic has slowed somewhat, it still remains higher than year-ago by nearly 12 percent. Motivation: “Fuel economy ofexisting vehicle” number one for 29 percent of new-car intenders followed by “Existing vehicle no longer suitable for driving needs”(21.4 percent).Most Staying in Same Market SegmentWith that said, CNW’s Purchase Path still shows the majority of consumers who are looking to make a new-vehicle acquisitionare planning to remain in the same market segment and counting on the new vehicle to provide greater fuel economy. Roughly 18percent say they are moving from a truck to a car with 11 percent reporting they intend to move from a car to a truck.Loyalty to Brand ReboundingWhile it’s too early to tell if the trend will continue, there is anundercurrent of satisfaction with the current brand owned amongnew-car intenders. Translation: The vast majority of new-carintenders say they will stick with their current automaker whentime comes to make the trade.That is welcome news for Toyota and Honda who have seenthe loyalty to those marques diminish over the past three years.Ford and Hyundai were the two major recipients of those would-be defectors. It now looks as if Ford, at least, will have to up itsmarketing efforts to snag Toyota/Honda leaners.Hyundai, on the other hand, continues to be on the shoppinglist for Toyota/Honda shoppers as is Nissan and Chrysler to alesser extent.General Motors, however, is being seriously thwartedamong new-car intenders. Fully 22 percent of new-carintenders believe GM will eventually re-file for bankruptcywithin the next few years.Only 8 percent of intenders think Chrysler will re-file forbankruptcy, down from 34 percent two years ago.
    • Page 3… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Jitters Index Slips v Year Ago, Flat Compared to August; Await ElectionJITTERS INDEX Fed Gas Child’s Job Day to Day Condition of Food Local JittersTaxes Prices Edu Stability Needs Investments Prices Taxes IndexVs Previous Mo. -0.10% 0.77% 0.00% 0.50% 0.78% -0.96% 1.68% 0.00% 0.38%Vs Mo. ‘11 0.31% -7.29% -10.15% -3.00% 5.85% -7.21% 4.43% 0.71% -1.20%Americans are putting many of their home-centric economic worrieson hold until the Presidential election is over. That’s the take-away fromthe September Jitters Index surveys.Overall, the Jitters Index was effectively unchanged from August’sreading, up barely 0.38 percent. Each of the categories within the Indexsimilarly showed little month-over-month movement with the exceptionof food prices.When asked what they felt was the most important issue or eventthat could affect their overall concerns, the Presidential Election wasnumber one, regardless of party affiliation.A slim majority of the Key Market (consumers who make up the bulkof big-ticket purchasers including auto buyers) said they expect theObama RomneyGas Prices -37% 21%Food Prices -21% 2%Taxes -59% 14%Job Stability 11% 19%Day to Day Needs -12% -13%Condition of Investments 15% 26%Local Taxes -2% -1%Overall Score -15% 10%Weighted Average Respondentsre-election of President Obama would lengthen and/or worsen their home-centric economic condition.Obama v Romney On Short-Term ImpactWhen asked about each of the home-centric main categories, Governor Romney was viewed as being able to have a quickerpositive impact on their lives, according to the respondents, while the overall score for President Obama was on the negative sideof the scale.Policies that would improve gas prices, for example, showed Obama scoring a negative 37 percent to Romney’s positive 21percent. On the ability to stabilize the job market, both men scored positive with Obama at 11 percent, Romney at 19 percent.In terms of initiating policies that would improve “Day to Day Needs”, both men were viewed about the same at negative 12and 13 percent respectively.Neither man was seen as being able to impact local taxes but Obama had a negative score of 59 percent when it came tofederal taxes while Romney had a positive 14 percent rating.
    • Page 4… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Note: This is a Graphs Page.4045505560657075808590Used Vehicle Days SupplySept.Split of DaysSupplyCar TruckSept 104.2% 96.70%Oct 103.2% 96.35%Nov 106.1% 95.32%Dec 106.8% 94.68%Jan 105.6% 94.95%Feb 97.8% 105.85%Mar 92.0% 110.71%Apr 85.7% 118.41%May 86.3% 118.66%June 83.8% 122.14%July 87.2% 109.67%Aug 91.3% 108.85%Sept 93.2% 107.02%Oct 94.48% 105.31%Nov 98.03% 104.67%Dec 101.35% 98.44%Jan. 12 102.42% 97.67%Feb 89.93% 109.74%Mar 88.58% 111.43%Apr 86.37% 113.57%May 90.24% 108.21%June 102.71% 97.53%July 119.46% 90.32%Aug 121.64% 88.29%Sep 121.73% 88.34%Document 112m Detroit Asian EuroMay 40.91 44.87 52.36June 41.57 43.79 52.74July 41.06 43.92 50.03August 43.34 41.28 48.62Sept 44.97 42.05 46.32Oct 45.62 42.09 46.58Nov 45.05 44.28 45.32Dec 45.08 46.39 45.47Jan. 12 43.22 44.92 45.76Feb 43.71 45.02 45.66Mar 44.82 46.87 45.61Apr 45.36 46.72 45.29May 44.06 45.22 44.97June 44.51 46.29 45.71July 48.06 47.24 46.94Aug 49.19 48.83 47.26Sep 49.71 48.93 48.02
    • AnticipatedSept Actual Sept % Chng YTD YTD % ChngDocument 106m cy12 cy11 12v11 cy2012 cy2011 12v11FranchisedDealer Sales1,328,881 1,189,966 11.7% 11,556,061 11,008,705 5.0%IndependentDealer Sales1,288,739 1,174,839 9.7% 10,596,501 11,001,610 -3.7%Casual (Private)Sales873,005 863,670 1.1% 9,194,429 8,144,612 12.9%Total Sales 3,490,625 3,228,475 8.1% 31,346,991 30,154,927 4.0%Page 5… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012September got off to a strong used-sales start that continuedthroughout the first 20 days and put the industry on a path to an8-plus percent gain.For the first time in months, Independent dealers are lookingat a significant year-over-year improvement thanks toinventories and supply becoming more stable andimprovements in inventory make up.Like the new-car market, all dealers are finding it easier toplace sub-prime used-vehicle paper. For the new-car market,approvals for sub-prime are up 62 percent vs. year ago and 8.6percent vs. last month.A similar condition exists on the used-car side with sub-prime in the opening weeks of September up by nearly 50percent vs. the same month of 2011.CONTEXT: Expect continued strong showings for Independentdealers over the coming quarter as long as the supply issuescontinue to improve and new-car dealers have solid trade-involumes. There was a slight weeding-out process over thesummer eliminating some weaker Indies. CNW expects the lossof 200 to 500 used-car outlets by the end of the year.September: All Channels Up; Indies’ Supply Stabilizes, Pushes Volume to Positive Gain60.0%70.0%80.0%90.0%100.0%110.0%120.0%130.0%Sept Nov Jan Mar May July Sept Nov Jan.12Mar May July SepCar V Truck Days SupplyCarTruckNew Finance Only (Doc 1409)PrimeNearPrime Sub Prime% Change v year ago 3.8% 4.3% 62.5%% Change v previous month 0.44% 0.30% 8.55%
    • Page 6… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Franchised Independent Franchised Franchised Independent IndependentDocument 107m Asking Price Asking Price Trans Price % of Asking Trans Price % of AskingJan. 12 $11,516 $10,483 $10,855 94.26% $9,715 92.67%Feb. 12 $11,714 $10,627 $11,155 95.23% $9,909 93.24%Mar 12 $11,826 $10,592 $11,254 95.16% $9,874 93.22%Apr ’12 $12,293 $10,289 $11,500 93.55% $9,379 91.16%May 12 $12,119 $9,987 $11,296 93.21% $9,071 90.83%June 12 $11,684 $9,937 $10,754 92.04% $8,977 90.34%July 12 $12,136 $9,842 $11,185 92.16% $8,943 90.87%Aug 12 $12,103 $9,849 $11,138 92.03% $8,936 90.73%Sept ‘12 $11,827 $9,767 $10,894 92.11% $8,853 90.64%Sept 11 $11,253 $10,219 $10,807 96.04% $9,572 93.67%Oct. 11 $11,394 $10,384 $10,952 96.12% $9,744 93.84%Nov. 11 $11,186 $10,148 $10,654 95.24% $9,452 93.14%Dec 11 $11,058 $10,039 $10,547 95.38% $9,384 93.48%Percent Change Yr over Yr 5.63% -3.18% 1.06% -4.34% -6.90% -3.85%Month Over Month Price -0.27% 0.07% -0.42% -0.15% -0.08% -0.15%Used Vehicle Prices Still Soft on Higher Volume; Turnaround May be in the MakingThe rate of price decline month over month is shrinking which could portend positive price increases in the fourth quarter of thisyear and certainly no later than the first quarter of next.Franchised-dealer asking prices were up more than 5.6 percent in the opening weeks of September but they couldn’t make thehigher tags fully stick. Actual transaction prices were up barely 1 percent.Independents’ asking prices were 3.2 percent lower than year ago with transaction prices off nearly 7 percent.Haggling IncreasesUsed Car intenders are bargain hunting and increasingly using online price guides and Internet price sites such as AutoTrader andcraigslist to haggle with dealers. In fact, the number of shoppers who now haggle over a used car price has climbed from 71 percent in2005 to more than 85 percent this year.
    • Page 7… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Commercial-Fleet Jumps 96 Percent in Augustcy12 Jan Feb March April May June July AugustAll Sales 912,874 1,148,975 1,404,100 1,184,069 1,334,150 1,285,005 1,153,269 1,285,292Percent Change v Previous Year 11.4% 15.7% 12.7% 2.4% 25.9% 22.0% 8.9% 19.9%Fleet and Commercial Use 39.52% 36.48% 36.92% 38.09% 36.41% 38.25% 38.73% 44.38%Total Fleet (Monthly Approximates) 360,768 419,146 518,394 451,012 485,764 491,514 446,661 570,413Percent Change v Previous Year 32.7% 40.5% 31.6% 22.4% 63.5% 77.2% 57.8% 96.1%FLEET COMMERCIAL VALUE -- Per Unit $27,219 $27,254 $27,614 $27,943 $27,904 $28,147 $28,221 $28,794FLEET COMMERCIAL VALUE -- Total $Bllns $9.82 $11.42 $14.31 $12.60 $13.55 $13.83 $12.61 $16.42Percent Change v Previous Year 40.92% 48.55% 39.68% 30.13% 69.34% 84.70% 64.12% 104.25%Government Fleet 18,805 23,439 28,222 24,747 25,616 25,315 22,373 40,358Share Govt of Total Sales 2.06% 2.04% 2.01% 2.09% 1.92% 1.97% 1.94% 3.14%Percent Change v Previous Year -27.6% -17.5% -16.7% -18.0% 3.3% 10.8% 2.5% 83.7%Small Business Fleet and Commercial Use 35,967 47,338 59,815 51,152 59,770 58,082 53,973 60,537Share Small Business of Total Sales 3.94% 4.12% 4.26% 4.32% 4.48% 4.52% 4.68% 4.71%Percent Change v Previous Year 34.3% 29.1% 24.1% 13.1% 72.4% 81.4% 63.8% 73.2%Medium Business Fleet and Commercial Use 88,731 116,736 150,520 124,682 142,887 124,388 112,790 117,861Share Medium Business of Total Sales 9.72% 10.16% 10.72% 10.53% 10.71% 9.68% 9.78% 9.17%Percent Change v Previous Year -3.6% 57.5% 67.6% 48.5% 104.6% 88.1% 66.6% 77.1%Large Business Fleet, Daily Rental, Commer. 217,264 231,633 279,837 250,431 257,491 283,729 257,525 351,656Share Large Business of Total Sales 23.80% 20.16% 19.93% 21.15% 19.30% 22.08% 22.33% 27.36%Percent Change v Previous Year 71.0% 45.5% 26.1% 19.8% 53.5% 81.5% 60.4% 110.2%40.00%47.50%55.00%62.50%70.00%Share RetailAugust58.96%Fleet orders showed a staggering increasing vs. year ago,one that causes a bit of head-scratching and generates a lot ofquestions. For example, the 84 percent increase ingovernment fleet orders and purchases is dramatically highcompared to previous months causing some speculation that itis politically motivated to help automakers continue a positivesales run.Retail share of total sales fell again in August to under 60percent reinforcing the 110 percent gain by large businessfleets.
    • Page 8… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Mobile Part 4: In Auto Market, What are They Using Mobile to Find Out?In the Purchase Process, consumers cycle through a series ofstages in search of the right vehicle for individual driving needs. Anda growing percentage of those new-car shoppers are using mobiledevices to collect the appropriate information at the appropriate time.A quick overview of the process:When first considering a new-vehicle acquisition, a consumerlooks at his/her personal and family needs. Seating for six, towing aboat, long distance vacations by car, for example. That examplewould obviously eliminate many segments (e.g. mini-pickups,sportscars).The typical shopper then looks at the market segments andmodels that meet those needs. This could well include minivans,small or large SUVs, crossovers.In the third stage of the Purchase Process, shopper will shufflethrough the various models found in the previous stage then look atstyling and personal considerations. For example, many will scratchMy needs ModelsavailableStyling Features Price61.62%68.15%27.61% 28.34%73.94%Use Mobileminivans from the list because of the soccer mom stigma whileothers will drop large SUVs because of the fuel-hog image.The net result is a shopper with four to six specific vehicles onthe list before moving on to compare the features each of thosemodels have. This could include, in our example, a tow package,rear-view camera, easy installation of electric brake systems, highenough horsepower to tow a large boat, etc.As with the third stage, the fourth results in fewer vehicles onthe list – typically no more than three – which are then priceshopped online and directly at dealerships.Mobile’s InvolvementIn CNW’s mobile studies, as the chart at the left shows,mobile’s highest use is to compare prices among the “finalists” inthe shopping process. But that’s not the only area mobile has astrong presence.When consumers are looking to define their “needs,” 62percent use a mobile device to research potential vehiclesmeeting those needs or driving habits.An even larger percentage of new-car shoppers use a mobiledevice to search out models that meet those driving requirements.When asked if this is done in a single sitting or over multiple days,the vast majority – 88 percent – reported tapping into their mobiledevice “as time permitted.” Translation: Looking at a model or twoover lunch or during a work break or while sitting in traffic. This isdistinctly different from what CNW has seen with computer usage.Shoppers tend to do a large amount of research in a singlesession while mobile users spread the research out.When comparing styling and features, however, the smallscreen is a hindrance and mobile use diminishes only to increaseagain at the end of the Purchase Funnel when Price is the keyinformation requirement.
    • Toyota Motor Sales USA certainly seems tobe rocking and rolling again, after several yearsin the barrel.The bleak years, lest we forget, were markedby massive recalls, embarrassing Congressionalhearings, federal fines, red ink, thencompounded by last years earthquake andtsunami in Japan.But Toyota, Scion & Lexus are back in favorwith Americans. The automaker reported selling1.399 million Toyotas and Scions in the first 8months of 2012 vs. just 1.07 million a year ago.Lexus “Split World,” click here.Jean Halliday’sPage 9… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Lexus sales are up nearly 25% in the same period to 150,604 units.Still, lets compare that to the first 8 months of 2007, when the OEM said it sold 1.569 million Toyotas and Scions, plus 220,000 fromLexus. In perspective, the whole industry has been in a funk in this country for several years. These days Toyota Motor is motoring rightalong.In general, the automakers advertising hasnt been much to crow about. Over the years, Toyotas three brands have sold lots of newvehicles IN SPITE of their so-so advertising. But theres a couple of bright spots of late.Lets start with Lexus, which for the most part has used some of theLexus “Future Unfolded,” click here.most mind-numbing ads in the luxury car segment pretty much since the new centurystarted. Such a shame for a brand that once had some of the industrys mostmemorable ads, such as the champagne glasses balanced on the hood.Some Hits, Some Misses at Toyota‘Split World’ from Team One Gets a ‘Bravo’;‘Future Unfolded’ Not so Much
    • For the launch of the new 2013 ES and first ES Hybrid comes this gem, called “Split World.” Bravo! This commercial from TeamOne is one of the best from Lexus in a long time. Its visually arresting, almost forcing you to watch. The montages portraymodernism, cool technology and luxury. And the premise actually makes sense: “Introducing a reason to look twice.” Its not loadedwith a bunch of mumbo-jumbo talk or list of features, which most people just go online to find out about anyway.But Lexus isnt out of the woods yet. How could the brand get it so right with that spot and so wrong with another ES launchcommercial? Check out “Future Unfolded.” (Previous page.)Page 10… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Where are the ‘Old’ People?Lexus said this is one of 3 spots targeted at African-American, Hispanic and LGBT audiences. Its amazing how different the two spotsare. This one is just lame. It tries too hard to be cool and young- two words not readily associated with Lexus.Why are all those young folks in the ES and dancing around it? They are no where near in age to the actual Lexus owner base. You cantfool people about this either. One sharp YouTuber commented “Thats funny....I didnt see any old people” in that ad.One place the Lexus ES wont be taking these hip people is to a night club.The writing is forced, especially this line from the narrator, actor Jim Remar, “with technology and style to match your achievements anddesires.” Thats quite lofty and presumptuous of Lexus to think it knows what peoples desires are. Those words are just wasting time andspace in the ad.Lexus is taking a page from cousin Scion with a social media push reaching out to start-up innovators and the chance for four of themto each get $100,000 in seed money for their products. Voting will take place on a custom Facebook app. The ES also becomes the firstauto brand with a brand magazine on mobile Flipboard. This is a smarter way to reach a younger audience.OK. Lets move onto the Toyota brand.Its been a while since Toyota has done any meaningful national advertising for its full-size Tundra pickup. Back in 2007, Toyota spentmore than $100 million to launch the then-redone, more competitive Tundra in hopes of selling 200,000 of them that year. That wasToyotas biggest-ever launch.But Tundra still takes a back seat to Detroits truck iron, selling only 65,600 Tundras in the first 9 months of 2012.Now Toyota is beating the drums again for the pickup, starting a multi-media push this month about how the Tundra will tow “anAmerican icon live before the whole world” on Oct. 13. Yup, the Tundra will haul the space shuttle Endeavour for the last leg of its tripfrom Los Angeles International AirportThe Tundra Endeavour, click here.on city streets to the California Science Center. Its a big deal since a stock, 1/2-ton, 2012Tundra CrewMax will be used to tow the 145-ton shuttle.Toyotas ad agency, Saatchi & SaatchiLos Angeles, handled the deal with the Science Center to show off the Tundras towingtoughness.Heres the promo, just one of lots of videos coming for the effort Toyota is encouragingpeople to follow the Tundras adventure online at www.toyota.com/TundraEndeavour. Peoplecan sign up for email updates and Toyota will donate $50 to the science center for every Tweeton Twitter about the tow.
    • Theres just one little detail thats almost glossed over in Toyotas hype about this feat. The pickup is only going to tow the space shuttle the lastquarter mile of its 12-mile trip leg to the Science Center!!!Doesnt all this hoopla seem a bit too much for that?Meanwhile, the Toyota brand just announced it is dropping its “Moving Forward” ad tag thats been used since 2004. Thats great news! Thatline was a nothing but a corporate-driven theme from on high that really had little to do with the brand. Its generic and could have been used forlots of other car brands.Ill bet 9 out of 10 Americans couldnt identify it as Toyotas ad tag- even after 8 years and millions of dollars of advertising. Back in 2004,Toyota exec Jim Lentz admitted that the brands “Oh, what a feeling” tag, which showed owners jumping for joy, had the most consumerawareness at the time, which makes you wonder why they dropped it. Toyota used that line from 1980 through 86.Toyotas new line, “Lets Go Places,” will bow late this year.New Tag Missing SomethingUgh oh. Also sounds very generic and interchangeable with other car brands. Hey, it could be used for an airline or online travel site.Toyota Divisions Bill Fay, group VP-general manager, gave this explanation, saying the new tag “speaks to the evolution of Toyota and ourcommitment to leading through innovation, enriching lives and connecting with customers in new ways they define.” He called the tag “energetic,aspirational, inclusive and very versatile. The phrase conveys a dual meaning of physically going places and taking off on an adventure, whilealso expressing optimism and the promise of exciting innovation that enriches people’s lives.” Okay then. Rationalize it any way you want.It would be better to have NO tag than to use one that isnt tied directly to one brand and one brand only.Page 11… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012But heres something Toyota IS doing right. It has taken ownertestimonial ads to a new level with its new Camry Effect blitz thatincludes this web site at http://toyota.com/camryeffect.Smart Site Sets the Industry BarBilled as “real Owners. Real Stories,” the site is loaded withtons of great input from actual owners. The site has interestingfactoids, like 79% of Camry owners know how to change a tireand 82% prefer an automatic.Toyota is pushing the site via TV ads like this one fromCamry owner Ja Net Rommero Testimonial ads are nothingnew in car advertising, but THIS is smart advertising and setsthe bar for the industry.Toyota Camry: Ja Ne’t Rommero’s Story, click here
    • This time of year always generates significant sales of smaller, less expensive vehicles as high school and college students andtheir parents enter the market looking for cars and trucks that provide reliable transportation. While most go into the used-carmarket, those lucky enough to come away with a new vehicle usually gravitate toward the lower end of the spectrum.That’s what happened in August. Budget cars had a slight uptick as did Economy cars, neither hitting their share-of-sales highwater mark but clearly on the rise.Electric cars saw an increase in August, but mostly because of fleet not consumer purchases.The full-size pickup market is healthy again. For the fourth month in a row, this segment took a larger share of sales than theprevious month and hit the highest share of sales of 2012 in August at 11.6 percent. Small businesses were the driving force here asthey continue to see improvements in construction trades requiring pickup trucks as the key means of transportation.Page12... CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 201212.09%11.40%11.87%11.31%11.78%12.21%12.48%Entry Level Utility Vehicle2.09% 2.13%1.96% 1.93%1.70%1.54% 1.68%1.81%Budget Car12.54%13.45%13.81%12.34%12.41%12.13%12.24%12.87%Economy Car0.14% 0.13%0.21%0.16%0.17% 0.18% 0.20%0.28%Electric CarBack to School Smaller Vehicles Take the Prize; Small-Business Pickups Best of ‘1289.7% of SalesIncentivizedOf the vehicles sold inAugust, nearly 90 percentcarried an incentive. That’sthe highest percentage of2012 and the highest sinceJuly of 2005.While the industry hasgotten significantly better attargeting incentive dollarsboth by model and market,the need to offer some formof dealer or consumer “spiff”has grown with the ability ofshoppers to research bothMSRPs and discounts.As a share of totalincentive dollars, Detroit wasresponsible for 45 percent;Asian 54 percent; European1 percent. (See Doc 121m.)
    • Page 13… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 201210.90%10.56%10.37%10.19%10.46%10.58%10.78%11.63%Full Size Pickup1.56% 1.71% 1.68%1.99%2.05% 2.05% 2.08%1.66%Full Size Van1.32% 1.35% 1.38% 1.33% 1.46% 1.52%1.67%1.21%Luxury Car10.78%11.04%11.43%11.87%12.44%11.96%10.76%10.14%Lower Midrange8.51%8.20%7.99% 8.20%8.34%8.28%8.77%8.53%Lower Mid Range Utility Vehicle1.62%1.46%1.33%1.49%1.66% 1.74% 1.79%1.38%Large Utility Vehicle
    • 3.70% 3.52% 3.35% 3.35%3.06%3.51%3.80% 3.71%Page 14… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Near Luxury Car0.24%0.20% 0.21%0.24%0.29%0.21% 0.23%0.26%Midi-Van2.32% 2.27%1.98% 2.17%2.66% 2.70%2.35% 2.34%Mid Range Utility-Vehicle3.47%3.86% 3.85% 4.01% 4.14%3.72% 3.78%4.28%Minivan0.37%0.28% 0.30%0.29% 0.31% 0.26%0.37%0.24%Premium Car4.39% 4.64%4.24%4.63%4.05%4.52%3.93% 3.76%Premium Mid-Range CarNoteworthy:Another sign that thereis life in the small businesscommunity is the improvedshare-of-sales for Midi-Vans such as the FordTransit Connect.As CNW pointed out ayear ago, the TransitConnect has a strongconsumer following withsales for non-businesspurposes running at 12 to20 percent, depending onregion.
    • Page 15… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 20120.25% 0.25%0.31%0.34%0.27%0.34% 0.33% 0.33%Premium Sporty Car3.24%2.73%2.50%2.76% 2.72% 2.74% 2.72% 2.78%Premium Utility Vehicle12.56%12.42%12.87%12.43%11.54%11.21%11.85%12.71%Standard Mid Range Car2.54%2.23% 2.07% 1.91% 1.91% 1.93% 2.02% 1.86%Small Pickup0.19%0.17% 0.16%0.15% 0.17%0.14%0.17%0.19%Sport Utility Pickup1.75%2.07% 2.19%2.43% 2.39%2.64%2.28%1.94%Touring CarNoteworthy:Toyota and Hondarebound is showing up as ashare of Standard Mid-Range Car data. Thissegment (far left) had itsbest share-of-sales monthof since March, secondbest of the year.
    • Page 16… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 20120.07%0.05%0.03% 0.03%0.02% 0.02% 0.02%0.01%Traditional Car0.02%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.02%0.01%Ultra Upscale Car0.05%0.04% 0.04%0.05%0.04% 0.04% 0.05%0.04%Ultra Luxury Sporty Car1.61% 1.54%1.37%1.81% 1.90% 1.88% 1.79%1.97%Upper Mid-Range Utility0.04%0.05%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.05%0.03%0.05%Ultra-Premium Utility Vehicle0.17% 0.16%0.12%0.18% 0.19%0.16%0.19%0.15%Upper Premium Sporty CarNoteworthy:The Traditional Carsegment continues todecline as brands droptheir historic models suchas the Crown Victoria andMercury Marque.
    • Page 17… CNW Research: Retail Automotive Summary September 2012Back Page*Deliveries not sales Sept 1-15 Sept 1-15 % Chng Actual Sales Sept 12 Full Mocy2012 cy2011 12 v 11 Sept 11 Sales ChangeNew Cars ExtensionDetroit 3 129,462 119,582 8.3% 149,373 161,714 8.3%Asian 156,904 131,646 19.2% 273,010 325,391 19.2%European 29,573 28,629 3.3% 73,993 76,433 3.3%Ttl Pass. Cars 315,939 279,857 12.9% 496,376 563,538 13.5%New TrucksDetroit 3 182,819 168,432 8.5% 357,193 387,703 8.5%Asian 51,376 43,628 17.8% 172,881 203,583 17.8%European 5,771 5,582 3.4% 26,860 27,769 3.4%Ttl Lt. Trucks 239,966 217,642 10.3% 556,934 619,056 11.2%Ttl Industry 555,905 497,499 11.7% 1,053,310 1,182,594 12.3%Sept 1-15 Full Sept % Chng Prev Mo Prev Mo % Chngcy2012 cy2011 12 v 11 cy2012 cy2011 12 v 11Lease Share 27.9% 25.7% 8.6% 27.9% 25.3% 10.3%Floor Traffic - New 76.92 63.65 20.8% 76.25 64.53 18.2%Floor Traffic - Used 86.45 76.84 12.5% 86.22 77.42 11.4%Sept 1-15 Prev Yr % Chng % Chng Pent Up Demand Unitscy2012 Full Sept Same Mo 11 Prev Mo Aug 12 96,700Avg. New MSRP $37,224 $34,708 7.25% 0.18% Aug 11 182,250Total Discounts $4,981 $4,956 0.50% 0.11% % Change -46.9%Manufacturer Incentives $3,642 $3,367 8.17% 0.22%Dealer Incentives $1,339 $1,589 -15.73% -0.19% Purchase Delay MonthsCore Transaction Price**** $32,243 $29,752 8.37% 0.19% Aug 12 3.47% Mfg Incentive of MSRP 9.78% 9.70% 0.9% Aug 11 4.8% Ttl Discounts of MSRP 13.38% 14.28% -6.3% % Change -27.7%