Case Competition Entry (Facebook)

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A mock case put together as a part of a team for the Consulting Skills and Frameworks Class at Kenan-Flagler. We were tasked with coming up with a way to increase Facebook's share value. Our recommendation was for Facebook to begin charging developers for access to their online APIs.

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  • P
  • Increases revenue by XIncreases market value by XP
  • AResearch on how facebook is beneficial to developersBusinessinsider:Engagement: sites with Facebook Connect see a 15-100% increase in reviews and other user generated contentTraffic: For each story published in Facebook, we see roughly 3 clicks back to the site.  Nearly half the stories in the Stream get clicked on. This creates opportunities for the site to encourage more user actions – knowing that each one may result in 3 new visits to their site. With other models like search, there’s nothing you can do to increase user traffic besides optimizing for keywords.
  • AExamples:spotify and eventbriteSpotify: 3m to 7m now on Facebook. All different products are better when doing it with your friends
  • PFacebook right now (users, hits, apps) – (Pooja) defining market share as users, hits, and apps to justify that Facebook is a monopoly
  • BNeeds more work. Additional competitors evidence!
  • RSlope= -(1+Monthly developer growth rate)Slope= 1+Monthly User growth rateI have the both growth rates, one I calculated fro q3 earnings report to be .41ish, Yify calculated the other to be roughly .47NEEDS WORK.
  • Y
  • Y
  • Y
  • Increases revenue by XIncreases market value by XP
  • assumptions
  • assumptions
  • assumptions
  • pricing
  • Growth in apps
  • revenues
  • Market value
  • Market value
  • Additional evidence-PE multiple
  • Additional evidence: PE multiple
  • AResearch on how facebook is beneficial to developersBusinessinsider:Engagement: sites with Facebook Connect see a 15-100% increase in reviews and other user generated contentTraffic: For each story published in Facebook, we see roughly 3 clicks back to the site.  Nearly half the stories in the Stream get clicked on. This creates opportunities for the site to encourage more user actions – knowing that each one may result in 3 new visits to their site. With other models like search, there’s nothing you can do to increase user traffic besides optimizing for keywords.
  • ABenefits-overview of how developers get value from FacebookSocial plugins – you can see what your friends are doing Like Button, which enables users to share your page with their friends with one click. Activity Feed Plugin to show users a stream of the recent likes and comments from their friends on your site. Recommendations Plugin to show personalized page recommendations to your users based on the likes and comments across your entire site.PersonalizationGraph API to create an even deeper personalized experience for your users. You can use the Graph API to access the user's Facebook profile, using this data in your own custom experience. You can use the Graph API to publish to the user's Facebook Wall and their News Feed. You can use the Graph API to access the user's social graph, bring their friends directly to your site all in your own custom experience.AnalyticsYou can get detailed analytics about the demographics of your users and how users are sharing from your website with Insights.These reports include rich data about users sharing content from your site within Facebook and other Facebook-enabled apps no matter where those activity originated. For example, if a user puts a URL from your site into a Facebook status message, that data is included in the analytics for your domain.Free co-branding and advertisingHaving Facebook Connect on your website makes it much easier for the user to log in using an existing username and passwordWhenever consumers use your product, it shows on their facebook wall for all of their friends to see.
  • Wall Street Journal
  • AResearch on how facebook is beneficial to developersBusinessinsider:Engagement: sites with Facebook Connect see a 15-100% increase in reviews and other user generated contentTraffic: For each story published in Facebook, we see roughly 3 clicks back to the site.  Nearly half the stories in the Stream get clicked on. This creates opportunities for the site to encourage more user actions – knowing that each one may result in 3 new visits to their site. With other models like search, there’s nothing you can do to increase user traffic besides optimizing for keywords.
  • Appendix: Implementation on other developers (other developers examples, how they have grown due to Facebook API platforms) (Fab, Pinterest, & Flipboard)
  • Appendix: Implementation on other developers (other developers examples, how they have grown due to Facebook API platforms) (Fab, Pinterest, & Flipboard)
  • Appendix: Implementation on other developers (other developers examples, how they have grown due to Facebook API platforms) (Fab, Pinterest, & Flipboard)
  • Appendix: Facebook is a platform for apps (self obsolescence, phasing out its own platforms, keeps changing, apps keep changing)Obsolescence is a measure of an asset’s loss in value resulting from a reduction in the utility of the asset relative to market expectations.Example, many apps on Facebook have become obsolete. For example, Farmville used to be the most active app on Facebook, but now is not even in the top ten apps for MAU. Facebook keeps changing its platform and layout to try to never become obsolete. Remember timeline?
  • Case Competition Entry (Facebook)

    1. 1. Facebook Case Competition Bradley Kirby Pooja Chandramouleeswaran Yifei Zhang Andrew Grillo Ryan Volatile 1
    2. 2. Executive Summary Charge for APIs Facebook should charge top developers for access to APIs in order to increase market value by 20% in the next 5 years. Developers Facebook Pricing Facebook is a necessity to Facebook has market Facebook has pricing developers. dominance. power. Cumulative market value increase of $15.8 billion, 30% by 2017. In the long run, increase of $87.5 billion, 68% by 2024. 2
    3. 3. API APIs are a free way that developers use to build usingDevelopers the Facebook platform.FacebookPricingpower 3rd Party API Platform ApplicationsImpact An API acts as an interface between two applications Source: Team Analysis 3
    4. 4. Facebook’s APIs allow 3rd party apps access to its data andAPIDevelopers functionality.Facebook 3 examplesPricingpowerImpact Create personal Promote on content Facebook Avoid account creation Source: Team Analysis 4
    5. 5. API Facebook APIs significantly increase user engagementDevelopers for the developers.FacebookPricingpower For each story published inImpact Facebook, developers see roughly 3 clicks to their sites. Developers using Facebook see a 30%-200% increase in registration on their sites. See appendix for more developer success stories. Source: Facebook, BusinessInsider 5
    6. 6. API Developers that use Facebook have seen a steepDevelopers growth in users and revenue.FacebookPricingpower 90% increaseImpact in membership from 1.8 million to 3.2 million users Success 100% increase in Cases 4 mil increase in quarterly gross membership, growing ticket sales revenue 433% 60% increase in users since Open Graph integration Source: Facebook, BusinessInsider 6
    7. 7. API Facebook is the market dominator with over 1 billionDevelopers global users, 9 million apps and 42 million pages.Facebook If Facebook were a nation, it would rank 3rd 1.01 Billion largest in population.Pricing Active UserspowerImpact Nation’s Population Population (in billions) 1.34 1.24 1.01 0.31 0.24 $141 Billion 9 Million in Value Apps Source: Wall Street Journal, Yahoo Finance, ORBIS 7
    8. 8. API Facebook outcompetes the leading competitor in attractingDevelopers users and prolonging engagement.Facebook Monthly Active Users (thousands)Pricingpower People spendImpact significantly more time per user on Facebook than Google+ 1000 100 Time Spent per User per Month Google+ Facebook 3 minutes 405 minutes Source: Facebook’s Q3 report, Google press release 8
    9. 9. Facebook’s market dominance leads to a largeAPIDevelopers opportunity for revenue growth.Facebook The supply/demand equilibrium (MonthlyPricing Charging below the Active Users) shows area for improvement.power optimal price will Price Per MAU Demand for app usersImpact limit developer pushback Facebook users Fair Market Price P*=$ 0.35 Untapped Revenue Q*= 4.8 Million Quantity of MAUs Source: Team Analysis 9
    10. 10. API With a well defined pricing model, Facebook canDevelopers maintain healthy new app creation while generatingFacebook additional revenue from the most popular apps.PricingpowerImpact Apps > 1 mil users Fair: only charging the most Developers • Average annual revenue > 50 mil successful apps • Charge only after success $28,847/month Finance: low % of developer Price • $0.35/user revenues • 6% of average developer value • Cheaper monthly rate with Catalyst: more app Discounts multiple apps development Source: Team Analysis 10
    11. 11. API Charging for Facebook APIs increases market values byDevelopers $15.8 billion over the upcoming 5 years.Facebook 5- Yr. Cumulative Market Values $70.0 35% market value (best)Pricing $68.0 market value (normal)power 30% market value (worst)Impact $66.0 % increase (normal) 25% $64.0 % increase (best) % increase (worst) $62.0 20% % market value increase $60.0 15% $ billions $58.0 10% $56.0 5% $54.0 $52.0 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Facebook APIs can increase cumulative market value by 20%- 42% by 2017 Source: Team Analysis 11
    12. 12. API Growth in market value continues to generate $87.5Developers billion in market value over next 10 years.Facebook 10- Yr. Cumulative Market Values $92.0 80% market value (best case) market value (normal case)Pricing $87.0 70%power market value (worst case)Impact % increase (worst case) $82.0 60% % increase normal case % increase best case $77.0 50% % market value increase $72.0 40% $ billions $67.0 30% $62.0 20% $57.0 10% $52.0 0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Facebook APIs can bring in a cumulative market value increase of 56%- 73% by 2024 Source: Team Analysis 12
    13. 13. API Risks are low comparative to the potential payoff.Developers Impact andFacebook Risk Speculation MitigationPricing Chance ImpactpowerImpact Developer Attrition Medium High Benefits of Facebook are well worth the below-market price Negative Press High Low No impact in long run Competitor Low Low Price below market Undercutting Value, Alternatives give much lower value New Platform Low Medium Barriers to entry are Emerges extremely high Facebook’s control of the social media market eliminate risks Source: Team Analysis 13
    14. 14. Executive Summary Charge for APIs Facebook should charge top developers for access to APIs in order to increase market value by 20% in the next 5 years. Developers Facebook Pricing Facebook is a necessity to Facebook has market Facebook has pricing developers. dominance. power. Cumulative market value increase of $15.8 billion, 30% by 2017. In the long run, increase of $87.5 billion, 68% by 2024. 14
    15. 15. Appendix Appendix Financial Additional Financial Additional Evidence Model Evidence Financial P/E multiple forecast assumptions 1 Benefits Developers’ revenue & Pricing willingness to pay 2 Facebook app data Growth in % Growth apps 3 Facebook user data Revenues & margins Cash & profit margins 4 Additional case studies Market values Multiples 5 Obsolescence 15
    16. 16. Appendix Overview of Financial Model 1. Price = (LTV of a new user) x (% of users resulting from API) x (% cut for FB) 2. NPV increase= [price x (#apps > 1M users)] * (cash margin*profit margin) 3. Increase in Market Cap = New revenue x PE ratio Input Assumptions: P/E ratio: 14 (normal) LTV of new customer: $5/year* % of new users resulting from API: 20% % cut for FB: 30% # apps > 1M & growth rate: 350 & 15% growth/year Cash Margin: 100% Profit Margin: 98% *Based on similar companies user LTV Source: Team Analysis
    17. 17. Appendix Market value is calculated with three components. Current NPV Multiple Market additional cash market Cap flows perception Revenues*(% profit)*(% cash) (1+cost of capital)^time* *iterated for 5-10 years Historical & Forecasted P/E multiple Source: Team Analysis
    18. 18. Appendix Financial assumptions include margin, # of apps, cost of capital, pricing, and current market value. Total Revenues ($) cash margin 100% 1 profit margin 98% annual app growth rate 22% current # of apps 350 Weighted Average Cost of Capital = Wd * After Tax Cost of Debt + (1 – Wd) * Cost of Equity 2 Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate (Rf) + Beta *(Return from Market (RM) – Rf ) Wdebt 0% Wequity 100% Cost of equity 0.36% Rf 0.27% Beta 0.01 RM 9.75% WACC 0.36% Pricing methodology: 1. Necessity to increase by 20% (implicit, dont MARKET VALUE (in $ present value) 3 show) 2. Value to developers 23-Nov 51990000000 3. Comparable pricing Target in 2017 62388000000 4. Cost to fb-nuissance to users Cumulative net gap 10398000000 Source: Team Analysis 18
    19. 19. Appendix Service is priced according to value to developers, as proportion of their yearly revenue from FB APIs. FB necessisity Annual price in $ Total revenue needed $742,714,285.71 1 Total 5 year payments 3,235 Annual payment cannot go below: $229,618.23 Comparables pricing fb ads $1,800,000.00 google ads $1,600,000.00 Twitter ads $43,200,000.00 average $15,533,333.33 % value 5% Value to developers $lifetime customer value $5 2 total customers 1000000 yearly growth 15% 2013 generated revenue $5,769,473.12 % total preferred payment margin 6.0% Cost of fb-nuissance to users 20% Annual Payment $346,168.39 3 Annual cost/ revenue generating user $0.35 Monthly Payment $28,847.37 Daily payment $961.58 Source: Team Analysis 19
    20. 20. Appendix Yearly growth in APIs is 22%. Name MAU Users Gain + Gain % Average yearly user % gain 1 TripAdvisor™ 2 CityVille 2 49,200,000 20,800,000 1,500,000 1,100,000 3% 6% 2 15% Average % growth of new app creation 3 Birthdays 21,500,000 300,000 1% 29% Candy Crush 1 4Saga 18,000,000 200,000 1% Average apps % gain/yr 5 Instagram 39,000,000 200,000 0.52% 22% Dungeon 6Rampage 2,100,000 100,000 5% Jetpack 7Joyride Subway 2,100,000 100,000 5% 3 Revenues Yr1 price $346,168.39 8Surfers 4,300,000 100,000 2% # Apps 402 Ruby Blast total revenues $139,086,202.26 9Adventures 18,800,000 100,000 0.53% Revenues Yr2 10 Keek 4,000,000 100,000 3% price $353,091.75 Static Iframe 11Tab 18,200,000 100,000 0.55% # Apps 491 Static HTML total revenues $173,524,234.84 Iframe Tab : Revenues Yr3 12Custom Icons 2,400,000 100,000 4% price $358,388.13 Fruit Ninja # Apps 607 13Frenzy 3,900,000 100,000 3% total revenues $217,713,844.09 Static HTML... 14[Sixth Tab] 1,200,000 100,000 9% Revenues Yr4 15 Custom Tab 5,000,000 100,000 2% price $363,047.18 16 Diggle 1,700,000 100,000 6% # Apps 780 Static HTML... 17[Second Tab] 4,900,000 100,000 2% total revenues $283,296,383.28 18 Stick Run 5,100,000 100,000 2% Revenues Yr5 19 21 questions 10,500,000 100,000 0.96% price $366,677.65 Static IFRAME # Apps 954 Tab : Note 20Icon 1,400,000 100,000 8% Source: Team Analysis 20
    21. 21. Appendix Revenues increase exponentially to $423 mil by 2017. $450.0 5-Yr. Revenues $400.0 $350.0 $300.0 $250.0 normal case $ millions $200.0 best case worst case $150.0 $100.0 $50.0 $- 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Annual Revenues (present values) in $ mil Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 normal case $139.1 $173.5 $217.7 $283.3 $349.6 best case $168.3 $210.0 $263.4 $342.8 $423.1 worst case $112.7 $140.6 $176.3 $229.5 $283.2 Source: Team Analysis 21
    22. 22. Appendix Market values expected to increase by $81.3-90.0 bil by 2014. Years 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Market value (worst case) $53.3 $55.0 $57.0 $59.7 $62.9 $66.08 $69.05 $72.02 $74.97 $77.75 $80.08 $81.28 Market value (normal case) $53.9 $56.3 $59.2 $63.0 $67.8 $71.14 $74.34 $77.54 $80.71 $83.70 $86.21 $87.51 Market value (best case) $54.6 $57.2 $60.3 $64.5 $69.6 $73.03 $76.32 $79.60 $82.86 $85.93 $88.51 $89.83 % increase (worst case) 3% 6% 10% 15% 21% 27% 33% 39% 44% 50% 54% 56% % increase (normal case) 4% 8% 14% 21% 30% 37% 43% 49% 55% 61% 66% 68% % increase (best case) 5% 10% 16% 24% 34% 40% 47% 53% 59% 65% 70% 73% Source: Team Analysis 22
    23. 23. Appendix Market values are calculated in 3 steps. Normal Best Worst Multiples 14 16 12 1 Market value Yr 1. Revenue x margin $136,304,478 $164,928,419 $110,406,627 r rate 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% 2 NPV increase $135,809,047 $164,328,947 $110,005,328 Market value increase $1,901,326,655 $2,629,263,146 $1,320,063,935 Market value Yr 2 Revenue x margin $170,053,750 $205,765,038 $137,743,538 r rate 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% NPV increase $168,819,794 $204,271,951 $136,744,033 Market value increase $2,363,477,120 $3,268,351,217 $1,640,928,400 Market value Yr 3 Revenue x margin $213,359,567 $258,165,076 $172,821,249 r rate 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% NPV increase $211,041,493 $255,360,207 $170,943,610 Market value increase $2,954,580,906 $4,085,763,310 $2,051,323,315 Market value Yr 4 Revenue x margin $277,630,456 $335,932,851 $224,880,669 r rate 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% NPV increase $273,615,951 $331,075,301 $221,628,920 Market value increase $3,830,623,313 $5,297,204,810.37 $2,659,547,043.22 Market value Yr 5. Revenue x margin $342,642,287 $414,597,167 $277,540,252 r rate 0.36% 0.36% 0.36% NPV increase $336,460,311 $407,116,977 $272,532,852 Market value increase $4,710,444,359 $6,513,871,627.73 $3,270,394,226.32 Source: Team Analysis 3 GRAND TOTAL 15760452354 21794454112 10942256920 % increase 30% 42% 21% 23
    24. 24. Appendix The P/E multiple has fallen from 100x to expected of 15x by year end 2013. Source: Team Analysis 24
    25. 25. Appendix The 2013 % change in P/E multiple is expected at - 40.2%. Date Open High Low Close Volume Adj Close* Closing % change Average daily change: -0.21% Average yearly change: -40.38% Source: Team Analysis 25
    26. 26. Appendix After continued market volatility, Facebook’s multiple is projected to approach that of established technology companies. Yahoo Finance P/E Ratios for other tech companies 25 Extremely High 20 Current P/E ratios for recent social media IPOs 15 10 Facebook: LinkedIn: 5 135.49 694.13 0 Apple, Inc eBay Inc. Google Baidu, Inc. Good Normal Bad (2017) (2017) (2017) Due to a yearly decrease of *40%, Facebook multiple in 2017 will be 14 * See previous slide Source: Finance.yahoo.com, Team Analysis*
    27. 27. Appendix Life Time Value of consumer internet companies is often >$20 Instagram: $28.57 ($1B valuation, 25M users) Facebook: ~$56 ($56B valuation, 1B users) Spotify: $150 ($3B valuation, 20M users) Sources: WSJ, Forbes
    28. 28. Appendix The creation of Facebook apps has seen remarkable growth in the past year. Facebook App Growth 10000000 Number of apps created 8000000 The number of 6000000 Facebook apps have increased 4000000 28.5% in the past year alone. 2000000 0 2011 2012 Year Source: Facebook 28
    29. 29. Appendix APIs can bring multi-dimensional benefits. Social Plugins Personalization Co-Branding & Analytics Advertising Source: Facebook, BusinessInsider 29
    30. 30. Appendix Most popular Facebook apps in October 2012, by monthly active users (in millions) Static Iframe Tab 17.90 Static HTML: iframe tabs 18.60 FarmVille 18.60 Average MAUs of sample Birthdays 19.70 =4,774,367 Pinterest 20.00 Diamond Dash 20.10 Yahoo! Social Bar 21.10 Samsung Mobile 21.40 Spotify 22.90 Bing 23.00 Microsoft Live 23.40 Zynga Slingo 23.80 Scribd 25.90 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 As of November 26, 2012 there were 345 Apps with 1 Million MAUs or more Source: Statista, Appdata.com
    31. 31. Appendix Number of monthly active Facebook users from 2008 to 2012, worldwide (in millions) Number of users in millions 1,200.00 1,007.00 1,000.00 955.00 901.00 845.00 800.00 800.00 739.00 680.00 608.00 600.00 550.00 482.00 431.00 400.00 360.00 305.00 242.00 197.00 200.00 100.00 0.00 Aug08 Mar09 Jun09 Sep09 Dec09 Mar10 Jun10 Sep10 Dec10 Mar11 Jun11 Sep11 Dec11 Mar12 Jun12 Oct12 Source: Statista
    32. 32. Appendix Number of mobile monthly active Facebook users March 2009 to October 2012, worldwide (in millions) Number of users in millions 700.00 604.00 600.00 543.00 488.00 500.00 432.00 400.00 376.00 325.00 288.00 300.00 245.00 196.00 200.00 155.00 129.00 101.00 100.00 75.00 50.00 35.00 0.00 Mar2009 Jun2009 Sep2009 Dec2009 Mar2010 Jun2010 Sep2010 Dec2010 Mar2011 Jun2011 Sep2011 Dec2011 Mar2012 Jun2012 Oct2012 Source: Statista
    33. 33. Appendix Facebook has seen remarkable growth in users. Number of Facebook Users in Billions 1.01 0.845 0.608 0.35 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Yahoo! Finance 33
    34. 34. Appendix Facebook’s growth is expected over the next 10 years. Source: Wall Street Journal 34
    35. 35. Appendix Facebook is a market dominator, carrying 61% of market share. Market Share LinkedIn 13% Other 22% Twitter 4% Facebook 61% See appendix for more developer success stories. Source: IBIS World 35
    36. 36. Appendix Fab, an e-commerce website, has integrated with Facebook to increase their number of users. Objective Implementation Results • To integrate the • Fab.com launched • referral traffic Like and Share their Open Graph from Facebook Links social implementation to has plugins on their make it easier for doubled and mem product to people to share bership has grown encourage people their purchases from 1.8 million to discuss and favorite to more than 3.2 products with products on their million users. friends. timelines. Source: Facebook 36
    37. 37. Appendix Pinterest, a virtual pinboard, has integrated with Facebook to increase their number of users. Objective Implementation Results • To attract new • Pinterest built • Since launching users and re- Open Graph their Open Graph engage existing stories to prompt integration, the users through the people to add the number of Open Graph. app to their Facebook users timelines. visiting Pinterest every day has increased by more than 60%. Source: Facebook 37
    38. 38. Appendix Flipboard, a smartphone social magazine, integrated with Facebook to increase retention rates. Objective Implementation Results • Increase • Flipboard • Retention was distribution by integrated the 50% higher for helping users News users who signed discover the Feed, Walls, Pages into Facebook content their , and Photo compared to users friends are Albums as who did not sign sharing. sections within in through Flipboard social Facebook. magazine. Source: Facebook 38
    39. 39. Appendix Myspace charges top developers on an unfair and unattractive developer platform. Facebook’s Revenue Model Advantages • Charges only established developers • Weekly prices are 15 to 30% less (average of $14,924/week) • MAU volume much greater • First Mover advantage Developers pay $50,000-$100,000 a week to be one of four “featured” apps. This revenue model disincentives small developers to use Myspace Sources: Myspace.com, www.businessinsider.com/, socialtimes.com, Team Financials 39
    40. 40. Appendix Myspace, a direct competitor, takes advantage of Facebook’s free APIs. Source: MySpace.com 40
    41. 41. Appendix Facebook should take risks and learn from the failures of their predecessors. Forbes: Push For Ad Dollars Derailed Forbes: 2 Ways Google, Facebook – And MySpace, Co-Founder Chris DeWolfe Says You – Can Keep From Becoming Obsolete "Create a culture of risk taking," DeWolfe 1. Get Curious About What’s not working says. "People get so excited about seeing -Don’t get defensive their ideas coming to fruition.” -Don’t defer blame And that might be MySpaces ultimate 2. Listen to the Weirdos lesson: sometimes the biggest risk is trying -They usually have the best ideas not to take one at all. -Great ideas don’t always make sense at first -Chris Dewolfe, Myspace Co-founder -Erica Andersen, Forbes Contributer Sources: http://www.forbes.com/sites/erikaandersen/2012/07/16/2-ways-google-facebook-and-you-can-keep-from-becoming-obsolete/, Business Source Complete Source: MySpace.com 41
    42. 42. Appendix Old technology loses little value during the introduction phase, but increases in obsolescence as new technology enters adoption phase. Source: Technology Life-Cycles 42

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