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BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013
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BoyarMiller Breakfast Forum: The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets - What's Ahead for 2013

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  • 1. www.boyarmiller.com The Houston Commercial Real Estate Markets: What’s Ahead for 2013 Breakfast Forum December 5, 2012
  • 2. www.boyarmiller.com Land Development, Homebuildng & Multi-Family Markets Will Holder Trendmaker Homes
  • 3. A National Real Estate Anomaly A Free Market Case Study
  • 4. Out of control, sprawl crazed megalopolis? Human intuitive, naturally evolving Super City? OR
  • 5. -35% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% 2Q90 2Q92 2Q94 2Q96 2Q98 2Q00 2Q02 2Q04 2Q06 2Q08 2Q10 2Q12 Las Vegas-Paradise, NV Fresno, CA Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Cape Coral-Ft Myers, FL Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Source: FHFA
  • 6. Houston MSA Residential Building Permits Number of Dwelling Units -- Thousands 81,500 Net New Jobs vs. 27,285 New Dwelling Units – 2.65 Jobs Per Unit
  • 7. Houston Existing Home Prices Median Price Prior 12 Month Average Houston Association of REALTORS®
  • 8. What Will the Next Five, Ten Years Look Like for Houston Real Estate?
  • 9. Houston MSA Population Forecasts Scenario 2000-2007 Migration Texas State Data Center Millions
  • 10. Location, Location, Location? No! Location, Jobs, Location, Jobs
  • 11. Houston MSA Job Numbers Recession Millions of Jobs Seasonally-Adjusted More Jobs Than Ever In History
  • 12. MSA Rank- Starts Last 12 Months
  • 13. Conclusion: • Houston is a Stable Steady Market • Economy & Population is Going to Grow • Supply & Demand is Moving Toward a Sellers Market • Prices Almost Have to Increase
  • 14. www.boyarmiller.com Retail Market Jay K. Sears NewQuest Properties
  • 15. Annual Job Growth
  • 16. U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index 75 100 125 75 100 125 Rolling 12-mo average U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index 50 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers
  • 17. Retail Trade Sales Source: U.S. Census
  • 18. Retail Trade Sales Source: State of Texas Comptroller 2008 Trend 2009 Trend 2010 Trend 2011 Trend Projected 2012 Trend U.S. 100.00% 92.64% 97.84% 105.57% 114.01% Texas 100.00% 88.06% 90.93% 98.89% 107.79% Houston MSA 100.00% 86.63% 89.05% 99.57% 108.54% Harris County 100.00% 85.54% 87.18% 98.69% 108.56% Montgomery County 100.00% 91.94% 99.33% 105.29% 111.61% Fort Bend County 100.00% 84.81% 91.94% 95.67% 110.03% 75.00% 80.00% 85.00% 90.00% 95.00% 100.00% 105.00% 110.00% 115.00% 120.00% Retail Trade Sales By National, State, MSA, and County 2008 2009 2010 20122011
  • 19. 2008 Trend 2009 Trend 2010 Trend 2011 Trend Projected 2012 Trend Katy 100.00% 92.59% 105.85% 121.72% 131.46% Pearland-Friendswood-League City 100.00% 98.96% 102.43% 115.74% 125.00% Conroe 100.00% 87.80% 94.60% 108.64% 117.34% Baytown 100.00% 87.93% 90.13% 101.49% 115.70% Sugarland-Rosenberg-Missouri City 100.00% 102.29% 97.87% 105.98% 115.52% Pasadena-Deer Park-La Porte 100.00% 104.12% 105.74% 117.79% 129.57% Houston 100.00% 85.00% 87.02% 99.06% 107.97% Humble 100.00% 87.95% 88.15% 95.22% 103.79% 80.00% 90.00% 100.00% 110.00% 120.00% 130.00% Retail Trade Sales By City Retail Trade Sales Source: State of Texas Comptroller 2008 2009 2010 20122011
  • 20. Holiday Sales  “35 million consumers visited stores and Web sites on Thursday, up from 29 million last year.”  “Average consumer spent $423 – roughly $25 more than they did last year.”  “Total spending increased nearly 13% to an estimated $59.1 billion, according to the NRF.”  “89 million consumers, up from 86 million in 2011 shopped on Black Friday.”  “Holiday sales are expected to increase 4.1% from 2011, said NRF.” Thanksgiving Weekend Sale Source: www.washingtonpost.com “Thanksgiving weekend sales better than last year”  “Online shopping on Black Friday rose 26% to exceed $1 billion for the first time.”  “Online sales advanced 16% in the first 23 days of November to $13.7 billion, with sales on Thanksgiving Day increasing 32% to $633 million.”  “Total spending increased nearly 13% to an estimated $59.1 billion, according to the NRF.” Online Shopping  “Traffic to retail sites on Black Friday rose to 24% from 14.3%, and the mobile share of sales hit 16%, up from 9.8% a year ago.”  “Nielsen in September reported 55.5% of U.S. mobile subscribers had smartphones as of July, up from 41% a year earlier.”  “The data all points to a larger addressable market for mobile sales and promotions during the holiday season.” Mobile Shopping Source: www.bloomberg.com “Retailers Keep Deals Flowing on 13% Holiday-Sales Jump” Source: www.mediapost.com “Mobile Becomes Major Shopping Player”
  • 21. Best Buy Annual Sales Source: Business Insider Same Store Sales at Source: www.investors.Best Buy.com
  • 22. Kroger 3rd Quarter Highlights  Kroger's adjusted earnings per diluted share was a record $0.46 for the quarter.  Identical supermarket sales growth, without fuel, was 3.2% in the third quarter.  Achieved 36(th) consecutive quarter of positive identical supermarket sales Reports Record Third Quarter Earnings Per Share Source: PRNewswire
  • 23. Population Growth 5,946,800 6,127,645 6,280,138 6,435,268 6,593,498 6,754,896 5,400,000 5,600,000 5,800,000 6,000,000 6,200,000 6,400,000 6,600,000 6,800,000 7,000,000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Houston MSA Population Growth Source: State of Texas Years Population
  • 24. -5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 55,000 65,000 75,000 85,000 95,000 105,000 115,000 School Enrollment 2008-2009 2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 School Enrollment Growth Source: Texas Education Agency Districts Students Enrollment Increases District 2008-2012 Houston ISD 1.4% Katy ISD 9.8% Fort Bend ISD 1.1% Spring ISD 9.9% Cypress-Fairbanks ISD 6.9% Humble ISD 7.9% Klein ISD 5.2% Conroe ISD 8.4% Aldine ISD 3.9% Clear Lake ISD 5.0% Alvin ISD 12.6% 198,500 199,000 199,500 200,000 200,500 201,000 201,500 202,000 202,500 203,000 203,500 204,000 Houston ISD
  • 25. Houston’s Retail Market
  • 26.  in Texas City  in the Heights  at Hwy 249 & Smiling Wood  in Sienna Plantation  in Fairfield Market  & in Cinco Ranch New Shopping Centers in 2012
  • 27. Grocery Anchored Developments Openings 2012 25.0% market share 24.8% market share 22.2 % market share Houston – area Market Leaders Source: The Shelby Report of the Southwest; October 2012 2012 Store Openings
  • 28. Planned Grocery Anchored Developments 2013 & Future 25.0% market share 24.8% market share 22.2 % market share Houston – area Market Leaders Source: The Shelby Report of the Southwest; October 2012 2013 & Beyond Store Openings
  • 29. New Shopping Centers Projects Planned Project / Anchor Developer Location Projected Opening Grand Lakes Marketplace Fry & Grand Pkwy Jan. 2013 Village at Northpark Northpark & US 59 2nd Qtr 2013 Spring Marketplace Rayford & Kuykendahl 1st Qtr 2014 Spring Town Center Kuykendahl & FM 2920 Summer 2013 Blvd. Place Post Oak & San Felipe Spring 2014 Vintage Marketplace Louetta & Cutten Rd Summer 2014 Fountainview & San Felipe 2014 Development Loop 306 & Hwy 105 2013
  • 30. FOR LEASING: CALL 281-477-4300 Spring Town Center Brazos Town Center Sam Houston Town Center NEC & SEC of FM 2920 & Kuykendahl Houston, Texas Project Size: Anchors: 354,559 SF Retail: 153,845 SF Pad Sites: 27 Total; 7 Available Tenants: NWC & SWC of US 59 & FM 762 Rosenberg, Texas Project Size: 550.00 acres (1.8 million SF of retail) Tenants: NWC of I-45 & FM 1097 Willis, Texas Project Size: Kroger Market Place: 123,000 SF Retail: 27,407 SF Pad Sites: 6 Available Tenants: OPENING MAY 2013 12 SCREEN NOW OPEN COMING SOON
  • 31. New to Houston’s Market • California base specialty Grocery • 3 new stores • Limited assortment grocery with over 1,000 stores nationwide • 9 new stores in Houston out of 30 planned • Phoenix based healthy foods/ organic grocery store • 3 new stores • North Carolina based gourmet grocery store • 4 new stores taking over Rice Epicurean locations • 2 sites under contract Hwy 59 & University Grand Pkwy & I-10 • Same company as Bed Bath & Beyond • 1st store in Webster, TX • Discount soft goods • Family-owned, family- oriented company • New pet store concept • Looking for 7,000 – 9,000 sq. ft. • 5,000 sq. ft. Petco store • Grocery anchored & urban markets • No live animals • Organic foods • 1st store Baybrook Mall 20,500 sq. ft. • 2nd store Willowbrook Mall 25,000 sq. ft. • California-based clothing company • 6,000 sq. ft. at First Colony Mall • New store coming soon in Texas City • New concept 30,000 sq. ft. • New size 40,000 sq. ft. • 1st location located in downtown Houston
  • 32. Rent Growth Rate & Forecast
  • 33. Construction / Absorption and Vacancy
  • 34. Houston Sales Comps 2012
  • 35. www.boyarmiller.com Office Market Robert S. Parsley Colliers International
  • 36. Houston’s Most Active Office Submarkets RobustEconomy
  • 37. Central Business District OpportunityorConcern
  • 38. GalleriaCompanyExpansions
  • 39. West HoustonEnergy&Construction
  • 40. Woodlands/Greenspoint ATaleofTwoCities
  • 41. What to expect in 2013 • Houston’s economy is a magnet for business! • Even with concerns over the U.S. economy of the “Fiscal Cliff”, expect that office leasing activity will continue to be robust! • Continued growth in the suburban markets - Woodlands and Energy Corridor. • Greenspoint will be active, but due to exodus of companies relocating to other submarkets. • 1M SF available in Allen Center (CBD) will attract a large tenant or tenants - it is an Opportunity! • Thankful to be in Houston! Continued Growth
  • 42. www.boyarmiller.com Industrial Market Welcome W. Wilson, Jr. GSL Welcome Group
  • 43. December 5, 2012 2013 INDUSTRIAL FORECAST WelcomeWilson,Jr.
  • 44. Houston…A force to be reckoned with
  • 45. 2011  507.9 million SF  1.977 million SF under construction 2012  843 million SF  2.156 million SF under construction HOUSTON INDUSTRIAL MARKET TOTALS
  • 46. VACANCY RATES BY BUILDING TYPE 5.3% HOUSTON AVERAGE
  • 47. Vacancy Rates U.S. - VS - HOUSTON Rental Rates
  • 48. INVESTMENT SALES
  • 49. Ameriport 2 - Update
  • 50. DiMare Fresh, Inc. - Update
  • 51. JOB GROWTH
  • 52. Fuels ENERGY The Economy
  • 53. ExxonMobil - Update
  • 54. Trade and the Panama Canal
  • 55. HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL
  • 56. Exxon/Qatar Proposal Exxon Mobil Corp. and Qatar Petroleum International are teaming up on a proposal to export liquid natural gas from Golden Pass terminal near the Houston ship channel.
  • 57. Driving Energy & Producing Jobs Eagle Ford Shale
  • 58. GAME ON!

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